slacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not sure I'll be voting, but Cameron he has far exceeded my expectations up to now. Previous Conservative leaders struggled to hold the party together with a majority, he's done this and worked effectively with the Lib Dems. He's also kept a lid on daft right-wing policy and got gay marriage through. Labour are not far enough ahead at this point to win. Men won't vote for Balls, women won't vote for Milliband - they have no clear headline policies and it's getting too late to start developing them. It baffles me how we don't have anyone with real working class policy solutions (championing manufacturing or improving the bookie/offie/cash for gold local shopping facilities working class areas have become). It's easy to slate the incumbents mid-term, but if the economy is still showing improvements at the general election - the coalition will walk it. The danger for Tories is on immigration - and changing policy in that area without breaking the coalition, but getting that wrong still probably won't be enough to lose it now. I'm just not seeing the level of negativity for the coalition that is needed to change government. There is more chance of them getting a majority than losing it now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 When the majority are hardcore junkies what is the incentive for the supplier to hand himself in? True. That said, he was elected on "it's like the nation's credit card is all maxed out" simplistic shile. I think we can all rejoice at the return of 95‰ mortgages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not sure I'll be voting, but Cameron he has far exceeded my expectations up to now. Previous Conservative leaders struggled to hold the party together with a majority, he's done this and worked effectively with the Lib Dems. He's also kept a lid on daft right-wing policy and got gay marriage through. Labour are not far enough ahead at this point to win. Men won't vote for Balls, women won't vote for Milliband - they have no clear headline policies and it's getting too late to start developing them. It baffles me how we don't have anyone with real working class policy solutions (championing manufacturing or improving the bookie/offie/cash for gold local shopping facilities working class areas have become). It's easy to slate the incumbents mid-term, but if the economy is still showing improvements at the general election - the coalition will walk it. The danger for Tories is on immigration - and changing policy in that area without breaking the coalition, but getting that wrong still probably won't be enough to lose it now. I'm just not seeing the level of negativity for the coalition that is needed to change government. There is more chance of them getting a majority than losing it now. The BoE are claiming wage inflation next year. That would certainly help the Tories. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
byron78 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not sure I'll be voting, but Cameron he has far exceeded my expectations up to now. Previous Conservative leaders struggled to hold the party together with a majority, he's done this and worked effectively with the Lib Dems. He's also kept a lid on daft right-wing policy and got gay marriage through. Labour are not far enough ahead at this point to win. Men won't vote for Balls, women won't vote for Milliband - they have no clear headline policies and it's getting too late to start developing them. It baffles me how we don't have anyone with real working class policy solutions (championing manufacturing or improving the bookie/offie/cash for gold local shopping facilities working class areas have become). It's easy to slate the incumbents mid-term, but if the economy is still showing improvements at the general election - the coalition will walk it. The danger for Tories is on immigration - and changing policy in that area without breaking the coalition, but getting that wrong still probably won't be enough to lose it now. I'm just not seeing the level of negativity for the coalition that is needed to change government. There is more chance of them getting a majority than losing it now. The biggest problem with regards the economy is that I am yet to meet anyone (literally ANYONE) who is benefitting. It's a banking and city led recovery with a freshly stoked housing bubble to boot. The numbers might be up for the 1‰, but the other 99‰ are scratching their heads whilst their wages stagnate, their services suffer, their health service and postal service are carved up and sold off, and the cost of living spirals. I don't know anyone who actually believes the economy is getting better at all other than folk that are already retired (and most of them vote Blue already anyway). They'll lose, and by a lot more than I think they think they will as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The BoE are claiming wage inflation next year. That would certainly help the Tories. Believe what they do, not what they see, wage inflation for the bankers no doubt. Wont be much wage inflation for the 600 people loosing their job in Middlesbrough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The biggest problem with regards the economy is that I am yet to meet anyone (literally ANYONE) who is benefitting. Osborne has done enough to be able to drop some taxes next year - I suspect we'll see income tax lowest bands change, VAT down to 18%, stamp duty under £600K dropped, green taxes dropped from energy suppliers. That could be enough to add £100+ per month benefit to most workers. It'll probably turn out to be reckless but who is going to vote Balls when the papers are full of boom talk and people can afford to pay to heat the house again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not sure I'll be voting, but Cameron he has far exceeded my expectations up to now. Previous Conservative leaders struggled to hold the party together with a majority, he's done this and worked effectively with the Lib Dems. He's also kept a lid on daft right-wing policy and got gay marriage through. Labour are not far enough ahead at this point to win. Men won't vote for Balls, women won't vote for Milliband - they have no clear headline policies and it's getting too late to start developing them. It baffles me how we don't have anyone with real working class policy solutions (championing manufacturing or improving the bookie/offie/cash for gold local shopping facilities working class areas have become). It's easy to slate the incumbents mid-term, but if the economy is still showing improvements at the general election - the coalition will walk it. The danger for Tories is on immigration - and changing policy in that area without breaking the coalition, but getting that wrong still probably won't be enough to lose it now. I'm just not seeing the level of negativity for the coalition that is needed to change government. There is more chance of them getting a majority than losing it now. How far ahead do Labour need to be to secure an outright majority? They had an 8 point lead in the last you gov poll, enough to win at a canter I'd have thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluffy666 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 How far ahead do Labour need to be to secure an outright majority? They had an 8 point lead in the last you gov poll, enough to win at a canter I'd have thought. In 2005 that got a comfortable majority on something like 35.5% of those who voted. In 2015 they stand to benefit from a return of left-leaning lib-dem votes, and from UKIP taking votes off the tories. What I'd really like to see is them winning by providing a manifesto that had a strong industrial policy, a pledge to build eoungh council houses to end the shortage (and allow more private housebuilding), to rein in the banks, end unpaid internships and prodive a strong apprentiship program, etc, etc.. Sorry, just fantasizing about election contests based on actual policy proposals. Will stop now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 How far ahead do Labour need to be to secure an outright majority? They had an 8 point lead in the last you gov poll, enough to win at a canter I'd have thought. With 2 years before election, according to this: 1995 Labour was 29% ahead and won 97 1999 Labour was 24% ahead and won 01 2003 Labour was 4% ahead and won 05 (but was incumbent) In 1990 when Tories were incumbent they were -14% but still won 92. This time there is a 'recovery' and the Lib Dem vote in their favour, but UKIP against. I believe Labour would have to be in 20s for an outright win, if Lib Dems get to pick a winner they'll go with devil they know - especially as the unions are still influential with Labour. I also think Cameron may have a deal with Clegg to bring Lib Dems back in even if they get a small majority - it helps him tame the extreme right. Also, Cameron still showing ahead of Miliband and Clegg in the net satisfaction polls - despite it being mid-term - as I said before I think he's done a lot better than many people expected and a lot of women are going to vote for him next time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geezer466 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The Reverend Flowers revelations are only just becoming apparent along with the close interaction with Ed Milliband. This has someway to run yet and could considerably damage Milliband. Lets not forget the CO-OP bank lends millions to Labour and it appears there may have been a Labour inspired cover up to hide his shenanigans as a councillor. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10463912/Labours-cover-up-over-Co-op-bank-chief.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 We are too far away from a GE to draw an opinion. BUT on the cards, the Tories will not win, they could not even with that mad Scottish crook, and without UKIP. Just to pour cold sick on the Tories, their coalition party told a bare faced lie, and will be destroyed at the GE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 The Reverend Flowers revelations are only just becoming apparent along with the close interaction with Ed Milliband. This has someway to run yet and could considerably damage Milliband. Lets not forget the CO-OP bank lends millions to Labour and it appears there may have been a Labour inspired cover up to hide his shenanigans as a councillor. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10463912/Labours-cover-up-over-Co-op-bank-chief.html In the same way that Osborne's dalliances with a dominatrix escort Madame don't appear tip have stuck, I don't think this will stick to milliband, it's too abstract for the average voter to understand Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy_renting Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 The biggest problem with regards the economy is that I am yet to meet anyone (literally ANYONE) who is benefitting. It's a banking and city led recovery with a freshly stoked housing bubble to boot. The numbers might be up for the 1‰, but the other 99‰ are scratching their heads whilst their wages stagnate, their services suffer, their health service and postal service are carved up and sold off, and the cost of living spirals. I don't know anyone who actually believes the economy is getting better at all other than folk that are already retired (and most of them vote Blue already anyway). They'll lose, and by a lot more than I think they think they will as well. The 99% don't matter. The 1% have 100% of the votes in the House of Lords and probably well over 50% of the Commons. How the 99% vote outside Parliament is an irrelevance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cashinmattress Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 There's a good chance that Labour will win (minority) because folk have seemingly forgotten how poorly the Tories treat the little people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 In 2005 that got a comfortable majority on something like 35.5% of those who voted. In 2015 they stand to benefit from a return of left-leaning lib-dem votes, and from UKIP taking votes off the tories. What I'd really like to see is them winning by providing a manifesto that had a strong industrial policy, a pledge to build eoungh council houses to end the shortage (and allow more private housebuilding), to rein in the banks, end unpaid internships and prodive a strong apprentiship program, etc, etc.. Sorry, just fantasizing about election contests based on actual policy proposals. Will stop now. I hear what you're saying. If they did that I might be tempted to vote Labour again and not UKIP. Never going to happen though, is it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellerkat Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Let's remember that elections are won or lost in the marginals! So Labour by quite a head, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 With 2 years before election, according to this: 1995 Labour was 29% ahead and won 97 1999 Labour was 24% ahead and won 01 2003 Labour was 4% ahead and won 05 (but was incumbent) In 1990 when Tories were incumbent they were -14% but still won 92. This time there is a 'recovery' and the Lib Dem vote in their favour, but UKIP against. I believe Labour would have to be in 20s for an outright win, if Lib Dems get to pick a winner they'll go with devil they know - especially as the unions are still influential with Labour. I also think Cameron may have a deal with Clegg to bring Lib Dems back in even if they get a small majority - it helps him tame the extreme right. Also, Cameron still showing ahead of Miliband and Clegg in the net satisfaction polls - despite it being mid-term - as I said before I think he's done a lot better than many people expected and a lot of women are going to vote for him next time. He's done a darned site worse than I expected! I have been a lifelong Conservative supporter but I shall not be voting Conservative whilst he is still leader! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) Not sure I'll be voting, but Cameron he has far exceeded my expectations up to now. Previous Conservative leaders struggled to hold the party together with a majority, he's done this and worked effectively with the Lib Dems. He's also kept a lid on daft right-wing policy and got gay marriage through. Labour are not far enough ahead at this point to win. Men won't vote for Balls, women won't vote for Milliband - they have no clear headline policies and it's getting too late to start developing them. It baffles me how we don't have anyone with real working class policy solutions (championing manufacturing or improving the bookie/offie/cash for gold local shopping facilities working class areas have become). It's easy to slate the incumbents mid-term, but if the economy is still showing improvements at the general election - the coalition will walk it. The danger for Tories is on immigration - and changing policy in that area without breaking the coalition, but getting that wrong still probably won't be enough to lose it now. I'm just not seeing the level of negativity for the coalition that is needed to change government. There is more chance of them getting a majority than losing it now. Polling says no, emphatically. Both UK polling report (80+ seat majority) and electoral calculus (80%+ chance of a Labour majority) have the coalition down for a hefty loss. It's easy to see a plausible outcome in the marginals. My Con MP has a majority of circa2,500. Is that enough to cover losses to Labour and UKIP? Doubtful. Edited November 21, 2013 by The B.L.T. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It doesn't matter what colour ties they wear. Whoever gets elected won't be representing the interests of the 99%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 He's done a darned site worse than I expected! I have been a lifelong Conservative supporter but I shall not be voting Conservative whilst he is still leader! I think that's exactly why they'll do it. Cameron hasn't come in and pandered to Tory traditional voters - even though many non-Torys won't vote for him, they won't vote against either. It's easy to see a plausible outcome in the marginals. My Con MP has a majority of circa2,500. Is that enough to cover losses to Labour and UKIP? Doubtful. UKIP look like they're going to pick up as many Labour votes as Tory, so I don't think the UKIP issue is going to be material on the day - they're certainly not going to win seats. It will drive a lot of the debate in the run-up and Labour is very weak against that debate. The combination of not forcing traditional Tory policies, putting in place gay marriage, getting some growth headlines and soon lowering tax - is going to get them relected. I wouldn't be so sure if Labour had a competent team, even if Miliband gets coached to the point he is electable - they have no clear alternative policies and it's too late to start making some up. This is not a change government situation: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicken Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Labour will win on the cost of living narrative. It doesn't matter whether there is 'growth' if most of the electorate realise they are getting poorer (and they do). Never mind that this would have happened under any government this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Knimbies who say No Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I think that's exactly why they'll do it. Cameron hasn't come in and pandered to Tory traditional voters - even though many non-Torys won't vote for him, they won't vote against either. UKIP look like they're going to pick up as many Labour votes as Tory, so I don't think the UKIP issue is going to be material on the day - they're certainly not going to win seats. It will drive a lot of the debate in the run-up and Labour is very weak against that debate. The combination of not forcing traditional Tory policies, putting in place gay marriage, getting some growth headlines and soon lowering tax - is going to get them relected. I wouldn't be so sure if Labour had a competent team, even if Miliband gets coached to the point he is electable - they have no clear alternative policies and it's too late to start making some up. This is not a change government situation: I think you will be proved totally wrong. If the landscape is so accommodating to a Con victory, why have Labour consistently polled at ~60-100 seat majority for a good while? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I think that's exactly why they'll do it. Cameron hasn't come in and pandered to Tory traditional voters - even though many non-Torys won't vote for him, they won't vote against either. Vote Conservative, get yet another champagne socialist career politician . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I think you will be proved totally wrong. If the landscape is so accommodating to a Con victory, why have Labour consistently polled at ~60-100 seat majority for a good while? Everyone is skint and unhappy - but employment is high, credit is easy to access and asset values haven't collapsed (unfortunately for us). This unhappiness is not being blamed all on the coalition. The anecdotal views on Cameron are not showing in the net approvals - he's consistently ahead of the others. Every change of government I have seen has been on the back of some deep popular negativity with the current government. I'm just not seeing that with the coalition - and they've not started the tax giveaways yet. To change a government you need an alternative to change to - and right now there isn't one. I've just got to hope they don't get a large majority, if that happens assets might be looking cheap right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goat Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 (edited) He's done a darned site worse than I expected! I have been a lifelong Conservative supporter but I shall not be voting Conservative whilst he is still leader! Probably worth remembering that he's stuck in a coalition with the libdems so his room for manoeuvre is limited. Also the kind of hardcore right wing policies that appeal to you turn off the middle ground floating voters who decide the election. Unfortunately I think any Conservative leader is now in an impossible position. Labour has managed to build a client state of immigrants, public sector workers and welfare claimants supported by the left leaning BBC and a network of publicly funded quasi-charitable political campaigning organisations. This client state drags the political centre ground to the left and the effect of this is now so strong that the right has fractured into the moderates trying to win power by occupying the centre ground and the hardcore who are happy to see Labour ruining the country so long as they get to vote for a party espousing their idealogical purity. If the conservatives go left they lose votes to ukip, if they go right they lose votes to labour, either way they cannot appeal to a broad enough section of the electorate to gain power. Meanwhile the labour client state will keep blindly voting for them, 29% of the electorate voted for Gordon Brown for god sake! Get ready for another 30 years of new labour. Edited November 21, 2013 by Goat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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