TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 This whole FLS nonsense followed by HTB and HTB2 is just insane. The asking prices of houses coming on the market is just insane. The government ignoring every sane call to stop the insanity, is insane. I can't see this going on much longer, this is like the 2007 market on speed. I said we'd see the collapse of the London market by the end of the year and with it the whole housing market. I think HTB2 was pushed through to try and stop the inevitable. I think HTBs only made things worse but thankfully it's opened up the debate about house prices with most people coming out against this insanity. The market looks to be dead/dying, it might go another 6 months before needing more resuscitation, I just wonder at what point are people going to throw the towel in. Collapse is inevitable, but is it imminent? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seems as if HPC needs an exogenous shock at least until May 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sancho Panza Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Inevitable but not imminent. A sustained rise of the ten year above 3% either side of the Atlantic and my interest would be piqued. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seems as if HPC needs an exogenous shock at least until May 2015 It's the external shock I am wondering about...can they really string this madness along for 2 years ? ( I don't think so ) Is this really a vote winner ? ( I don't think so ). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seems as if HPC needs an exogenous shock at least until May 2015 Vote Labour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 Vote Labour. I'm more likely to stand out side parliament with a placard than vote for any of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackgoose Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Vote Labour. Yes I bet most of the Chinese buyers of London property haven't even considered the possibility of the most left wing government since the 1970's being elected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The market looks to be dead/dying, it might go another 6 months before needing more resuscitation, I just wonder at what point are people going to throw the towel in. Collapse is inevitable, but is it imminent? What are you looking at to come to that conclusion? Also as someone who has posted that they have locked their money away to earn 2% or less interest in sterling. What scenario do you see that is going to help you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crashmonitor Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 (edited) IMO prices troughed in 2009 on a nominal basis or 2012/13 on a real basis. After a real correction of about 20% in the south and about 40% in the North, it's hard to see that we have a further imminent correction just around the corner. It would be unusual for prices to go negative in the foreseeable future with an economic recovery firmly rooted and a rising price trajectory which still has about 10% to go to achieve its 2007 nominal highs. After 2015 it is anybody's guess, by which time we may have just about got back to where we were in 2007 and that would still represent one huge inflation adjusted fall. Edited November 18, 2013 by crashmonitor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
long time lurking Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It's the external shock I am wondering about...can they really string this madness along for 2 years ? ( I don't think so ) Is this really a vote winner ? ( I don't think so ). It`s looks like a vote loser to me ,i don`t know if it`s just anecdotal to the area i live in and the people i know ,but sentiment has changed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Collapse is inevitable, but is it imminent? No, not imminent, but not so far off that I'd consider buying a house now. The government will try to keep the housing bubble going until the election. It will be my first election in which I shall not be voting Conservative. I could never vote Labour and the LibDems are part of the current coalition so UKIP it will be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Seems as if HPC needs an exogenous shock at least until May 2015 Vote Labour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Dave will do whatever it takes to try and buy the election, after that.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Yes I bet most of the Chinese buyers of London property haven't even considered the possibility of the most left wing government since the 1970's being elected. Id be more interested in what the markets make of a Labour victory, than the chinese buyers. Let Iceland be the template. Massive loss of international confidence required. Nothing else will hasten the end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Nothing else will hasten the end. Oh I don't know. A Chinese collapse could happen any time but more likely 1-3 years Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 A Chinese collapse could happen any time but more likely 1-3 years That'll just push prices up more - London property is the safe harbour currency for that scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Oh I don't know. A Chinese collapse could happen any time but more likely 1-3 years My point is that SOMETHING beyond the control of this shower of +++++ is what is needed. Whatever it is, lets ave it..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 (edited) What are you looking at to come to that conclusion? All the readily available evidence and my own 2 eyes. Also as someone who has posted that they have locked their money away to earn 2% or less interest in sterling. What scenario do you see that is going to help you? I've locked my money away ion various places earning AT LEAST 2% interest. Some of my bonds have returns of 6%+ over the last 5 years. Sure you can chase 10% a year and sure you can loose 20%. Life's not a spring it's a marathon. I'd buy a house but it's still MUCH better value to rent and with the crazy government intervention it's become more than just good value, it's becoming a sensible life style choice, keeping the flexibility/ability to get out the UK is beyond priceless right now. Bruce, anything you'd like to add to that ? Buying is so last century. Edited November 18, 2013 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manchester50 Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 It will spin on for some time yet. I agree with the 'not imminent but inevitable' comments. It will be seen as a vote winner because it is a vote winner - but for how long? Both this weekend and last both the Guardian and Telegraph had articles which were 'anti-HPI'. It may be that the media stance starts to turn in which case 'HPI = votes' may not be correct. Having said that I believe interest rates will remain low for some time yet. I have a decent chunk of my savings in various types of bonds and (after a brief hiccup in the summer) don't see anything in their values to imply increasing rates any time soon. I also think we have really yet to see 30yr, 35yr and 40yr mortgages pushed - as per another thread on here recently with a happy 28yr old who had taken on a 35yr mortgage on a two bed flat in Manchester. If interest rates rise sufficiently there is also the possibility of future tax relief on mortgage payments to help the poor indebted. You may think the young/screwed/disenfranchised would not stand for it - maybe. All I see is apathy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 That'll just push prices up more - London property is the safe harbour currency for that scenario. That's what people with property in London will tell you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 That'll just push prices up more - London property is the safe harbour currency for that scenario. I disagree. In the collapse they'll want their money out to buy up assets on the cheap. Like the Greeks, Russians etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 Nothing else will hasten the end. The other thing is a stock market collapse. Pencilled in for around now (most likely but can see extension maybe into first couple of months '14) into 2015. C 35%. Note to self - come back in an hour and there will be dozens of you stupid f...er. Well, watch this space. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 (edited) I disagree. In the collapse they'll want their money out to buy up assets on the cheap. Like the Greeks, Russians etc I don't buy into this rich foreign investors buying into London houses, for a start the sales volumes are tiny and for a finish any idiot can see the bubble in prices, if you are that rich you might as well hold off until the inevitable. If you are that worried about a collapse of your own economy/fiat then you'd be buying gold. The gold bubble has popped and on a downward spiral, doesn't look like many people are using it for the safe haven it's professed to be, I think we're more likely seeing the death throws of the BTL market with those savvy foreign investor's actually being sad greedy (foreign) Londoner's desperate to get a return on their money. I'll have my 2% every year thank you very much Mr. Banker, compound interest is my friend. Edited November 18, 2013 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 All the readily available evidence and my own 2 eyes. I've locked my money away ion various places earning AT LEAST 2% interest. Some of my bonds have returns of 6%+ over the last 5 years. Sure you can chase 10% a year and sure you can loose 20%. Life's not a spring it's a marathon. I'd buy a house but it's still MUCH better value to rent and with the crazy government intervention it's become more than just good value, it's becoming a sensible life style choice, keeping the flexibility/ability to get out the UK is beyond priceless right now. Bruce, anything you'd like to add to that ? Buying is so last century. I agree about having the flexibility to be able to get out of Sterling quickly, which is why I haven't locked my money away. 80% of my cash is currently in Sterling and 90% of that is instant access, albeit with loss of three months interest on the NS&I bonds. We have just signed a new one year rental contract at the same bargain price we were paying in 2006 but for a larger house. So yes, renting rocks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 I agree about having the flexibility to be able to get out of Sterling quickly, which is why I haven't locked my money away. 80% of my cash is currently in Sterling and 90% of that is instant access, albeit with loss of three months interest on the NS&I bonds. We have just signed a new one year rental contract at the same bargain price we were paying in 2006 but for a larger house. So yes, renting rocks. That can't be true....rents only ever go up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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