Typhoon Haiyan - Carbon Loonies Attempted Hijack Of A Tragedy

[Frank Hovis]

It was inevitable really. This is a religion to these people in all but name, so anything is fair game to them.

I didn't realise that they had infiltrated the DEC to such an extent.

And the usual say nothing of substance PR guff from Cameron.

Aid agencies say typhoon shows need for action on climate change

The UK's Disasters Emergency Committee (DEC) has urged countries to take urgent action on climate change, as UN talks enter their second week.

The committee, comprising 14 aid agencies, said Typhoon Haiyan was a glimpse of the future for millions who will be at risk from extreme weather.

It said the meeting in Warsaw should agree to rapidly cut carbon emissions.

But negotiators say such action is unlikely as a global deal is not expected until 2015.

The British agencies argue that extreme weather events such as Typhoon Haiyan follow a growing pattern of threat that points strongly towards climate change.

In 2012, the Philippines was the country that suffered the most fatalities from extreme weather events and was ranked the second most affected from climatic disasters.

Now Haiyan has struck and affected around 12 million people.

"This should be a wake-up call for negotiators who have been sleepwalking through a process fraught with delay and indecision," said Oxfam's Max Lawson.

"The images we have seen from the Philippines are a reminder that climate change is not about numbers and process, but a growing reality for poor people who desperately need support to protect themselves and build safer futures."

Prime Minister David Cameron, speaking at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Sri Lanka, seemed to support this view, saying the "evidence appeared to be growing."

However, scientists point out that unequivocally linking a specific weather event such as Haiyan to climate change is impossible.

Tears and silence

Regardless of the specific link, delegates meeting here in Warsaw were quick to see the impact of the typhoon as a reason to up the pace of their work.

Last Monday at the opening of the talks, the Philippines' lead negotiator Yeb Sano issued an emotional appeal to "end this madness".

His heartfelt appeal drew tears from some delegates and a three-minute silence in memory of those who lost their lives.

But the realities of making progress in these UN negotiations hit home on Friday when Japan announced that as a result of the Fukushima disaster it would have to renege on its promises to make massive emissions cuts by 2020.

However the DEC members point to the widespread public support for those affected by Haiyan, with an emergency appeal raising £30m in the first three days.

They argue the same spirit should influence the UN talks.

"We need to see a response from the delegates in Warsaw to match that of the overwhelming response of the public to this devastating tragedy," said Cafod's Neil Thorns.

"It is not fair, it is not just and it cannot go on that those living in poor and vulnerable communities, such as in the Philippines, are being affected now whilst governments fail to steer us to a better future based on our shared responsibility to care for our planet now and for future generations."

In their statement the committee members say that UN negotiators must rapidly deliver a mechanism by which compensation can be paid for loss and damage caused by climate change and they must drastically cut global emissions of carbon dioxide.

However the reality of this ponderous process is that the calls for action will likely fall on deaf ears, at least for now.

Ministers arriving here for the second week of the talks are likely to agree to nothing more than to keep the talks going, knowing full well they have until 2015 to secure a new global deal.

The complexities involved and the need for consensus among the parties means they are likely to take every last minute.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24975106

[LiveinHope]

It was inevitable really. This is a religion to these people in all but name, so anything is fair game to them.

I didn't realise that they had infiltrated the DEC to such an extent.

And the usual say nothing of substance PR guff from Cameron.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24975106

And if there was a link between air temperature and sea surface temperature to the distribution and abundance of biology in the sea in turn influencing sea temperature and storm tracks - would it be wrong to raise the issue ?

[Frank Hovis]

And if there was a link between air temperature and sea surface temperature to the distribution and abundance of biology in the sea in turn influencing sea temperature and storm tracks - would it be wrong to raise the issue ?

They are hardly "raising the issue". It has all the hallmarks of a cult.

[LiveinHope]

They are hardly "raising the issue". It has all the hallmarks of a cult.

The trouble is poor journalism and the need for a politcal soundbite - the underlying science is noteworthy though.

[MrPin]

They are hardly "raising the issue". It has all the hallmarks of a cult.

It IS a cult! I noticed this some years ago, when much of the science left the building!

[Hail the Tripod]

There are certain 'themes' that pervade literally every single news item these days.

Global warming, racism, sexism to name but three.

I wonder if there might be a link between certain views one way or the other, Might even be worthy of its own news item if there were so they can say "if you are anti the global warming narrative, you are a mysogynist and a racist."

It is already "a thing" in us drama series. My favourite was in Justified: "He got into that sovereign man shit, you know refusing to pay taxes, before you know it he was blowing up black churches."

Seen similar in Bones and True Blood.

[Austin Allegro]

It is already "a thing" in us drama series. My favourite was in Justified: "He got into that sovereign man shit, you know refusing to pay taxes, before you know it he was blowing up black churches."

Seen similar in Bones and True Blood.

Yes, modern pulp fiction has stereotyping and lazy thinking just as it always has done. In the old days it was fiendish orientals, the yellow peril, jolly but simple darkies, fiendish German invasion plots, the Russian Bear poised to get its claws into India, etc etc etc.

Now all that's happened is the subjects and villains have changed to evil corporations, evil tories, evil climate change deniers, oppressed and misunderstood muslims, etc etc.

The sad thing is today's writers actually think they are 'enlightened' whereas the hacks of yesteryear probably just did it because it sold well.

[snowflux]

Your headline is very reminiscent of the sort of thing that supporters of the right to bear arms in the US come out with when, after yet another gun massacre, gun-control advocates suggest that guns should be controlled. Those against gun control attempt to deflect blame and shut down the discussion by accusing those who are attempting to establish the causes of the situation of making political capital. It stinks.

Edit: It's the flat refusal to accept that altering the composition of the Earth's atmosphere can have an effect on its climate that is most akin to religion here.

[winkie]

....anything that happens, whatever it is there are certain people that think there has to be a reason why it happens, they will blame this or that.....has anyone ever thought that sometimes things just happen that are far and way beyond our control....ants can't control some things although they often like to think they can.

[MrPin]

....anything that happens, whatever it is there are certain people that think there has to be a reason why it happens, they will blame this or that.....has anyone ever thought that sometimes things just happen that are far and way beyond our control....ants can't control some things although they often like to think they can.

You are Queen *****, and I hope I spelled that right!?

Actually that wasn't a rude word! It was the name of some Danish King. who couldn't turn back the tides! It sure looks like a rude word to the dyslexic!

[Bootsox]

I know DECC put up horse-sh1t like this and expect us all to believe in Armageddon:

[fluffy666]

Hmmm.

Typhoons are basically heat dissipation engines.

Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere has the effect of adding more heat to the system.

Both of these statements are as close to 100% proven as it's possible to say whilst still being a scientist.

But apparently the suggestion that adding more heat to a physical system will change the way in which is dissipates heat is absolutely insane and completely out of bounds. In related news, turning the gas up or down on a pan has no effect on the way it boils, and you can drain all the coolant out of your car engine with no ill effects (don't listen to all the silly propaganda from the Garage Mechanic VIs).

[gilf]

So you are saying there has never been an extreme weather event before and that it is 100℅ statistically certain that this particular event was the direct result of man's activities increasing the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere.

My take on it is who gives a ******.

As you say the earth has been far hotter (not just warmer) than it is currently and it's also been far colder. In both periods there was plenty of life about, both plant and animal.

The earth really couldn't give a shit, it will easily cope with whatever we throw at it in the shorter and longer term.

The issue is that as humans we won't be able to cope with it, crops will fail, floods and typhoons will happen and at the extreme end we might well destroy ourselves as a species in the process, but the earth itself will survive and in the near future (from a universal level) something else will take up the slack to have their go at ******ing it up.

We can't continue the way we are and expect the earth to be supporting US , but it will be more than capable of coping itself and support whatever next evolutionary niche that fills the gap.

Ultimately, do I think global warming is man made, yes, do I think it needs dealing with, not really. The sooner we get wiped out as a species the better for the rest of them. It won't happen in my life time, I'm not having kids, so like I say who gives a ******.

[Kurt Barlow]

Hmmm.

Typhoons are basically heat dissipation engines.

Adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere has the effect of adding more heat to the system.

Both of these statements are as close to 100% proven as it's possible to say whilst still being a scientist.

But apparently the suggestion that adding more heat to a physical system will change the way in which is dissipates heat is absolutely insane and completely out of bounds. In related news, turning the gas up or down on a pan has no effect on the way it boils, and you can drain all the coolant out of your car engine with no ill effects (don't listen to all the silly propaganda from the Garage Mechanic VIs).

[Kurt Barlow]

So you are saying there has never been an extreme weather event before and that it is 100℅ statistically certain that this particular event was the direct result of man's activities increasing the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere.

I typically keep away from 'climate' debates because it does appear to me about 'belief' and where there is belief or a VI you cannot trust facts unless perhaps you are prepared to wade thru an incredible amount of research with a critical mind but invariably taking much of what you read on trust.

Discussions rapidly descend into name calling and sarcasm to make one's opponents seem like fools.

The use of such techniques does not win anyone around, it merely serves to raise the temperature.

I deeply distrust people from both sides claiming absolute knowledge.

I think you are putting words in Fluffy's mouth.

[the gardener]

It's a question of how much extra heat is in the oceans and how much of that is human generated. On top of that there's the question of how typhoon strength and frequency are affected by increasing heat and the precise relationship between those factors.

None of this is really fully understood beyond simplistic incomplete models.

[fluffy666]

So you are saying there has never been an extreme weather event before and that it is 100℅ statistically certain that this particular event was the direct result of man's activities increasing the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere.

Umm, no, that's quite clearly not what I said.

If you want to claim that the basics of the CO2-greenhouse effect are wrong, or that Typhoons are not heat dissipation engines.. well, go ahead but on both counts you would basically be saying 'physics is wrong.'

Discussions rapidly descend into name calling and sarcasm to make one's opponents seem like fools.

The use of such techniques does not win anyone around, it merely serves to raise the temperature.

You've just accused my of saying something that is blatantly not what I said and then complain about name calling and sarcasm.

I deeply distrust people from both sides claiming absolute knowledge.

What about those who claim that people are claiming absolute knowledge? Should we trust those?

[Riedquat]

Argue about whether there is any average global heat increase, and the cause of it if there is, but the basic idea that if there's more heat you'll get more frequent extreme weather events is totally un-arguable, as is the fact that some will happen even if there is no increase. Roll loaded dice and you'll probably get the same number more often. Neither "they land on 6 anyway sometimes, can't be loaded" or "I rolled a 6, must be loaded!" is an intelligent position to take for a single roll, but if you suspect loaded dice then there's a good chance it contributed to the 6.

Why am I even having to explain this?

[Steppenpig]

I'll just sneak in an apology here, as I said a few weeks ago that typhoons probably kill les people than traffic accidents, but apparently they can be quite dangerous sometimes, although I was sort of on the right track, in that most people are usually killed by flooding and storm surges rather than the headline wind speeds..

I also asked on a previous global warming thread if there was any actual evidence of extreme weather incidents increasing, as it seems like it should be a relatively easy thing to consrtuct from historical records.

Here's a list of the world's deadliest typhoons. Seem to be fairly well dispersed over the last few centuries.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/deadlyworld.asp?MR=1

here's a pdf. Deaths from wind storms in Figure 4, but hard to draw any conclusions. there was a biggy in the 1970s.

http://www.csccc.info/reports/report_23.pdf

Although I wouldn't really consider "deaths" a reliable guide to weather conditions, as I can think of reasons why that would be higher or lower.

[Steppenpig]

I've no idea if this is a reliable blog, but it seems to have a couple of charts indicationg no particular trends in the rate of weather events. I'm not really interested enough to look into it in any more detail.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/11/some-historical-perspectives-on-typhoon-haiyan-yolanda/

[ccc]

I'm glad you have seen the point I was making (not).

Read fluffy's original post and then try come back and claim that I didn't use the same sort of tactics that he had.

It's annoying isn't it. This is the point where I disgracefully bow out.

Its a waste of time.

Chances are - 'physics' is wrong. Humans are always wrong. We are not smart.

We are dumb ***** who think we are more important than we really are.

Anyone who thinks we can 'fix' global warming is clinically insane.

No point telling them though - not as if they are gonna suddenly snap out of it

[rxe]

I'll just sneak in an apology here, as I said a few weeks ago that typhoons probably kill les people than traffic accidents, but apparently they can be quite dangerous sometimes, although I was sort of on the right track, in that most people are usually killed by flooding and storm surges rather than the headline wind speeds..

What exactly are you apologising for? 1.2 million people die a year in traffic accidents globally. This typhoon is an absolute tragedy, but so far ~3500 people are confirmed dead. You'd need 500 of these typhoons a year to compete with the ability of humans to drive into each other. (Pedant alert: yes, I know the death toll is likely to rise, keep doing the maths when it does.)

In all these debates, I do wonder what the scientists in Doggerland claimed as the waters inundated their villages. Perhaps it was anthropogenic ox slaughtering (it's the blood you know).

[Mr. Miyagi]

It's not even clear that Hiayan was the strongest storm on record. The main reason that so many people lost their lives due to Hiayan was poverty and lack of infrastructure. The best way to protect against storms such as Hiayan is economic growth, which for the time being, means access to cheap, reliable carbon based fossil fuels.

[Kurt Barlow]

Its a waste of time.

Chances are - 'physics' is wrong. Humans are always wrong. We are not smart.

We are dumb ***** who think we are more important than we really are.

Anyone who thinks we can 'fix' global warming is clinically insane.

No point telling them though - not as if they are gonna suddenly snap out of it

Try testing this and prove them wrong. Physicists say gravity = 9.8m/s2 hence the need for a parachute when jumping out of a plane at 10,000 feet. I reckon you could do it without

[ccc]

Try testing this and prove them wrong. Physicists say gravity = 9.8m/s2 hence the need for a parachute when jumping out of a plane at 10,000 feet. I reckon you could do it without

Done that - and a parachute was most definitely required

I was just talking generally. There will be things we are certain about today - that will be looked back on in years to come with laughter.

What they are of course - another story. If i knew i wouldn't work again.