Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Hollys master

Can Someone Check This Probability Argument?

Recommended Posts

Our usual fourball met for a game of golf a few days ago and one was a bit late. We threw 3 balls into the air representing the three present golfers to decide who would pair up with each other with the nearest two balls becoming a pair and the furthest ball teaming up with the man yet to arrive. We would normally throw up 4 balls and again the closest pairing would play together with the other 2 balls becoming the other pair. Player D who was late got the weakest player from A,B and C on the day as his partner and lost a few pounds in a sidebet. He queried the method of choosing partners afterwards.

Are the odds any different using 3 balls rather than 4 that a certain pair will play together? Here is my simple argument below that the probability is in fact the same;

Players A,B and C throw the balls up and the nearest two play together. D is to play with the odd one. The chances of A playing with D are 1 in 3 as the only outcomes are AB, AC, BC

Players A,B,C and D throw the balls up and the nearest two play together. The chances of A playing with D are 2 in 6 simplified to 1 in 3 as the only outcomes are AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD (this is 2 in 6 and not 1 in 6 because when B and C are closest then A and D are playing together by default).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Providing everyone is being honest, then it's the same.

If one of the three wanted to play with the absent golfer, then he could influence the outcome.

If all three wanted to play with the absentee, then it becomes three blokes throwing a golf ball as hard as possible in opposite directions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tell him to hand the money over and raise his query before the result is known next time.

It was all in good jest. And the balls were mixed behind my back and then I threw them fairly overhead. He jokingly claimed he had more chance of being paired with the guy in poorest form as his ball wasn't included in the selection process which got me seriously pondering the actual probability

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Our usual fourball met for a game of golf a few days ago and one was a bit late. We threw 3 balls into the air representing the three present golfers to decide who would pair up with each other with the nearest two balls becoming a pair and the furthest ball teaming up with the man yet to arrive. We would normally throw up 4 balls and again the closest pairing would play together with the other 2 balls becoming the other pair. Player D who was late got the weakest player from A,B and C on the day as his partner and lost a few pounds in a sidebet. He queried the method of choosing partners afterwards.

Are the odds any different using 3 balls rather than 4 that a certain pair will play together? Here is my simple argument below that the probability is in fact the same;

Players A,B and C throw the balls up and the nearest two play together. D is to play with the odd one. The chances of A playing with D are 1 in 3 as the only outcomes are AB, AC, BC

Players A,B,C and D throw the balls up and the nearest two play together. The chances of A playing with D are 2 in 6 simplified to 1 in 3 as the only outcomes are AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD (this is 2 in 6 and not 1 in 6 because when B and C are closest then A and D are playing together by default).

i didn't realise golf was so complicated.

I thought you weren't supposed to throw the ball either, but hit it with that stick thing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If all three wanted to play with the absentee, then it becomes three blokes throwing a golf ball as hard as possible in opposite directions.

I'm assuming one chap throws all three balls at once from one hand (after mixing them up).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   211 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.