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Typhoon To Hurt Philippine Growth Before Rebound

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Philippine growth will probably be slower than initially estimated this year after Typhoon Haiyan devastated some provinces, then rebound as reconstruction provides a boost, economists said.

Gross domestic product for the full year may be as much as half a percentage point lower than a previous estimate of 7.3 percent to 7.5 percent, according to Jun Trinidad, a Manila-based economist at Citigroup Inc. GDP in the affected areas in eastern, central and western parts of the Visayas island group may decline by as much as 8 percent in 2014, Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima said yesterday.

“This poses some downside risk to growth this year, but it’s going to be relatively short lived,” said Euben Paracuelles, a Singapore-based economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. “The recovery would be quick as we go into reconstruction and could push next year’s growth a little bit higher.”

Economists repeat the broken window fallacy. No surprise that the economy will take a big hit.

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