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Hopeful FTB

Ftb'ers At 9%

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I think I may have missed these figures in the past but that figure from the article above amazed me- cant believe that FTB'ers only make up 9% of the market- isnt the historical norm something like 50%?

Can anyone tell me what the ratio was at the time of the last housing boom?

The other part of that article ( the one from the national assosciation of estate agents) that made me laugh is the part about 2/3rds of graduates not being able to afford a home and that the advice is to knuckle down & save- what, on top of their 20k plus student debt? I graduated 10 years ago & still cant afford to buy a home! And that is nothing to do with student debt, more total un-affordability. :lol:

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Land registry stats............

Year % FTB loans

1989 51

1990 52

1991 46

I firmly believe this crash will be far, far worse than the last one. :ph34r:

By the way for anyone whose interested in order to get residency in Canada the fast way is to buy a farm, costs about £50k, you then have tax free status for 5 years regardless of what you do for a living....that's right NO TAX for 5 years.

.......just incase anybody else is leaving the sinking ship too ;)

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Land registry stats............

Year % FTB loans

1989 51

1990 52

1991 46

I firmly believe this crash will be far, far worse than the last one. :ph34r:

By the way for anyone whose interested in order to get residency in Canada the fast way is to buy a farm, costs about £50k, you then have tax free status for 5 years regardless of what you do for a living....that's right NO TAX for 5 years.

.......just incase anybody else is leaving the sinking ship too ;)

It would be interesting to compare these percentages to the percentages of btl landlords. I suspect there might be some inverse relationship between the two.

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Bringing this to the top because I missed it and I can't believe it.

How can the market function, or rather, how LONG can it function with FTB numbers at 80% down on those historic levels? BTLs and Mummy/Daddy buying for kids will be a little bit but not enough to support all the former FTBs

I remember the classic story of 4 antiques dealers on a desert island, each making a perfectly good living selling the same table and chairs to each other for years. Until they realised there was noone else to sell to...

I just can't see how things are working without FTBs. Its like saying you can remove a (the) core undeprinning of the market and yet not see fallout for years.

I remain convinced lack of FTBs will cause prices to crunch next year.

Edited by Tempest

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Bringing this to the top because I missed it and I can't believe it.

How can the market function, or rather, how LONG can it function with FTB numbers at 80% down on those historic levels? BTLs and Mummy/Daddy buying for kids will be a little bit but not enough to support all the former FTBs

I remember the classic story of 4 antiques dealers on a desert island, each making a perfectly good living selling the same table and chairs to each other for years. Until they realised there was noone else to sell to...

I just can't see how things are working without FTBs. Its like saying you can remove a (the) core undeprinning of the market and yet not see fallout for years.

I remain convinced lack of FTBs will cause prices to crunch next year.

People are moving house but not selling their old house ("waiting till the market picks up"), getting bridging loans, there are still BTL muppets out there who want to subsidise their tenants and sweat hard for a lesser return than they would get in a high street savings account...the economic fundamentals supporting house prices have all but gone, it just hasn't filtered through to the herd yet.

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I think I may have missed these figures in the past but that figure from the article above amazed me- cant believe that FTB'ers only make up 9% of the market- isnt the historical norm something like 50%?

Can anyone tell me what the ratio was at the time of the last housing boom?

The other part of that article ( the one from the national assosciation of estate agents) that made me laugh is the part about 2/3rds of graduates not being able to afford a home and that the advice is to knuckle down & save- what, on top of their 20k plus student debt? I graduated 10 years ago & still cant afford to buy a home! And that is nothing to do with student debt, more total un-affordability. :lol:

It's a fair point, I graduated in 1998, have a lot of savings, no debt and still need £150K mortgage for a 1-bed flat here in Kingston Upon Thames. Whatever people believe the future generations will not be able to support current property prices, either to buy them or to pay enough rent to cover BTL mortgages.

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I've said before: They were twice overvalued at the peak; they'll be twice undervalued at the bottom (and the odd one will slip through, for a few desperate weeks, at an "island bottom" of 90% off).

BUT all in real terms. (Cue horace on my "get-out" clause.)

The way the statistics are being managed and the pound is drooping, it might seem far less dramatic in nominal terms.

90%

come on surely you dont think it will get as low as that - even for the odd one

40-50% in real terms is my guess.

josey wales or good bad and the ugly?

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Josey for sure, if I could just get spitting on that dog's head right.

I'm a twisted uber-bear who thinks that over the next decade we are going to see a Kondratieff Winter (click).

But fear not. Stay in cash (that's gold for me but Swiss or Singapore (or maybe Japanese) short term treasuries for goldaphobics) and experience the bull run of a lifetime.

Read Prechter (click) and make up your own mind. (I don't agree with it all.)

And I'm open to being proved wrong. And I think it will be followed by the greatest burst of economic growth the world has ever seen as nanotechnology, nascent ai, robotics and the true potential of the internet to cut travel and spread information really kicks in.

EDIT: If you have a few hundred thousand to invest you could try these people as well: http://www.safewealthgroup.com/

prechter - yep read conquer the crash - i think it was you that mentioned it - thought that the stock market would be worse by now though and the dollar hasn't started falling.

Kondratieff Winter i need to read more.

Just ordered the empire of debt by those guys at the daily reckoning (I think their emails make sense).

Josey should have got an oscar

cash - if we get inflation this could be eroded.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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