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Who's Buying Houses At The Moment?

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According to the National Association of Estate Agents: 'The first time buyer share of the market dropped to 9% in October.'

So, who's driving the market now? People who already own houses and want to move up sell one and buy one - they cancel each other out. Which means, new demand must come from:

Investors

Homeowners splitting up

People coming in to the country.

None of these can be big at the moment - so why aren't prices falling?

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I heard the dreaded words "bridging loan" uttered by someone at work who is moving house and can't shift the original property. It would be interesting to see if this is on the rise.

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According to the National Association of Estate Agents: 'The first time buyer share of the market dropped to 9% in October.'

So, who's driving the market now? People who already own houses and want to move up sell one and buy one - they cancel each other out. Which means, new demand must come from:

Investors

Homeowners splitting up

People coming in to the country.

None of these can be big at the moment - so why aren't prices falling?

What's driving the market? Fear, VI propaganda and government "news releases" that try to convince us that Gordon Brown's economic miracle is so marvellous it will never end. Utopia has been found!

All I can say is that where I live, West Midlands, prices ARE falling. Every EA has windows full of unsold houses with "new prices" (EA speak for price reduced) everywhere. New builds are offering 10% off as soon as you walk in the door. Don't be fooled by the spun statistics--an increase in "asking prices" is not an increase in sold prices which makes Rightmove's stats meaningless.

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According to the National Association of Estate Agents: 'The first time buyer share of the market dropped to 9% in October.'

So, who's driving the market now? People who already own houses and want to move up sell one and buy one - they cancel each other out. Which means, new demand must come from:

Investors

Homeowners splitting up

People coming in to the country.

None of these can be big at the moment - so why aren't prices falling?

Dont forget that two people buying each other's properties can place effectively ANY price on them as long as the two prices are equal. What's happening is the very anticipation of price rises causes the sellers to adjust asking price more or less in sync, driving FTBs out, The market is srinking and becoming less stable without FTBs but it does not NEED FTBs present at all times.

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Suspect, there's an awful lot of parents buying homes for their children going on at the moment.

My auntie's house sold on this basis about 4 months ago - cash buyer, full asking price - for his daughter.

Go to college with a young lad - 18, no job, baby born last week - parents are paying 'his' mortgage and lending him money as well.

Probably a lot of STR's giving up the game and jumping back in, if they can negotiate a discount.

However, personally, I think this was a temporary blip with pent up demand from the spring and summer.

Certainly, in the last 4 weeks or so its now died a death around me. I have a suspicion the Nov, Dec and Jan figures are going to be very bad - but this will be put down to the winter lull. Sales and prices will rebound in the spring though.

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According to the National Association of Estate Agents: 'The first time buyer share of the market dropped to 9% in October.'

So, who's driving the market now? People who already own houses and want to move up sell one and buy one - they cancel each other out. Which means, new demand must come from:

Investors

Homeowners splitting up

People coming in to the country.

None of these can be big at the moment - so why aren't prices falling?

I know of people who are buying a new house but not selling their old place (renting it out, usually to the local authority). They have managed to get (effectively) a 100% mortgage based on the earnings in rent they get. This works fine if they have a lots of equity, but I can't see how it could work if they didn't as they would be paying a huge mortgage. A lot of them have also done some very dubious sums to calculate the profit they will make over 25 years. It does go to show how the banks are still lending irresponsibly.

This is why I think there needs to be some sort of catalist to cause a crash. Due to large levels of debt, it doesn't need to be anything spectaular though, rises in bills and taxes could easily cause it. If there is anything people in this country are poor at doing, it's planning for the 'rainy day'.

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Summarising the comments, it seems that the market has the upward momentum of a projectile fired some moments ago, which is high and possibly still rising, but is under the influence of no forces other than gravity...

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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