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crashmonitor

Halifax House Price Index October

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Reuters a bit more upbeat (we get the monthly of 0.7% here) saying prices could take off in the next few months.

EAs prematurely ejaculated here - first new punters through the door in 4 years and they ramp prices up 20%+

If I was an EA I'd want volume not value - they should be talking sellers down, but I guess the agent that values highest gets the contract.

Tough one for Osborne - everyone talking about a HPI but it's all coming from £900K+ properties in a few postcodes.

Stamp duty under £600K will be the next log on the fire.

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EAs prematurely ejaculated here - first new punters through the door in 4 years and they ramp prices up 20%+

If I was an EA I'd want volume not value - they should be talking sellers down, but I guess the agent that values highest gets the contract.

Tough one for Osborne - everyone talking about a HPI but it's all coming from £900K+ properties in a few postcodes.

Stamp duty under £600K will be the next log on the fire.

Foxtons hinting they want volume....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/10429585/Foxtons-says-London-property-market-is-flat.html

Edited by crashmonitor

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EAs prematurely ejaculated here - first new punters through the door in 4 years and they ramp prices up 20%+

If I was an EA I'd want volume not value - they should be talking sellers down, but I guess the agent that values highest gets the contract.

Tough one for Osborne - everyone talking about a HPI but it's all coming from £900K+ properties in a few postcodes.

Stamp duty under £600K will be the next log on the fire.

:lol:

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The killer is when prices shift up and wages do not, sales volumes must fall. that is unless banks are expanding lending multiples?

Average prices [for an area] must be set by average * lending multiple * lending multiple

£21,000*4.0*0.75 = £63,000

£21,000*4.0*0.95 = £79,800

If prices rise n% then looking at the earnings curve, sales must fall off n%. Fair enough government have interfered in the 'lending multiple' part by upto 15% therefore prices can only rise a maximum of 20% if everyone took up the H2B scheme which they won't.

Projecting 'average' wage growth of 3% next year gives a 3% property rise

£21,630*4.0*0.95 = £82,194

That's assuming 100% of the persons wage increase goes to servicing a mortgage and not on rising electricity etc..

Perhaps we have arrived at peak propaganda?

Edited by Gone to Ireland.

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Surely London is getting ready to pop!

"A one bedroom flat in a desirable area of London now costs over £500,000 - a £60,000 rise in just one year, according to a leading estate agent.

Improved mortgage availability, low interest rates and the Government's Help to Buy scheme are behind the increase with first-time buyers flooding the market undeterred by stratospheric prices, the report from Marsh & Parsons added. "

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2488443/One-bed-flats-prime-London-worth-500k.html

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Carney and Osborne will not let it pop .... until after the election but may need a new scheme of two to 'help' more people to buy and I am sure the taxpayer has no problems in providing more cash so that people can borrow more money ... cut price stamp duty, lower mortgage rates, MIRAS, bigger guarantees and bigger interest free deposits for use on all purchases. Whatever it takes to get prices rising as this is what EVERYONE wants and it will win votes.

+1 I am inclined to agree as much as I hate to.

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Stamp duty under £600K will be the next log on the fire.

Telegraph is leading tonight with a story on British paying most tax on property sales in developed world.

Written by a political editor ...

Looks like scrapping stamp duty might be on.

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Carney and Osborne will not let it pop ....

I remember just before the last election people on here saying the same thing about King and Brown. laugh.gif

Things will only change if its forced upon them IMHO.

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Telegraph is leading tonight with a story on British paying most tax on property sales in developed world.

Written by a political editor ...

Looks like scrapping stamp duty might be on.

Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) tweeted at 10:36 pm on Wed, Nov 06, 2013:

Haven’t seen Policy Exchange paper the Tel front page refers to but I presume what it refers to is this OECD chart http://t.co/KrdN0cBMxk

(

Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) tweeted at 10:39 pm on Wed, Nov 06, 2013:

Slight warning: I think half the “Recurrent taxes on immovable property” is business rates, so not strictly on homeowners; rest council tax

(

)

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Telegraph is leading tonight with a story on British paying most tax on property sales in developed world.

Written by a political editor ...

Looks like scrapping stamp duty might be on.

Think they may well go for top slicing. 1% on the first 250k even when the transaction is more. It would immediately stop clustering at 250k and some of these sales would go through at 260k a further boost to house price. A nice stocking filler for the electorate that count with the 2015 election in mind.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Report.....

http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media/pdfs/halifax/2013/061113_hpi.pdf

Up 8.1% if you ignore their smoothing three month rolling average....171991/159157.

Meanwhile the Express rounds up to get a 13k year on year rise.............

http://www.thepaperboy.com/uk/daily-express/front-pages-today.cfm?frontpage=32619

Edited by crashmonitor

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