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The ONS has this morning released the latest UK population projections, based on mid-2012 population estimates and incorporating results from the 2011 census.

Headlines:

  • The UK population is projected to increase by 9.6 million over the next 25 years from an estimated 63.7 million in mid-2012 to 73.3 million in mid-2037.
  • The UK population is projected to reach 70 million in 2027.
  • Projected natural increase (more births than deaths) accounts for 57 per cent of the projected increase over the next 25 years.
  • Over the ten year period to mid-2022, the UK population is projected to increase by 4.3 million to 68.0 million.
  • The population is projected to continue ageing with the average age rising from 39.7 years in 2012 to 40.6 years in mid-2022 and 42.8 by mid-2037.
  • The number of people aged 80 and over in the UK is projected to more than double to 6 million by mid-2037.

UKpop1.gif

UKpop2.gif

UKpop3.gif

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_334975.pdf

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B*ll*cks

looks like a child has traced (badly) along the outside of the demographic pyramid. I read somewhere that the UK has some of the worst (weighted) child mortality figures compared to the rest of Europe. People are unhealthier than they ever have been before and our arsenal of life prolonging medicines/antibiotics are becoming less effective.

There's already upwards of 70million in the UK.

More jam tomorrow, tax (take) today projections.

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[*] Over the ten year period to mid-2022, the UK population is projected to increase by 4.3 million to 68.0 million.

That's quite a lot as the population of Ireland (ROI) is 4.5 and the population of New Zealand is around 4.4 million.

The UK's is going to have to build quite a few new towns or accept lower living standards (concentrated pollution, congestion etc.) to cope with the increased population.

Overall the forecast seems a little radical to me. It's like someone saying inthe next 10 years the population of Ireland is going to double - yeah right!

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It's the Office of National Propaganda isn't it?

The thing is for years we were told we had a declining population, average family going from 2.4 children to something like 1.4. The thing is when you see ONS graphs for the same period they tell you an entirely different story.

I've stopped believing ONS figures anyway, due to that I believe they have political pressure to skew results favorably for whatever Government is in power.

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That's quite a lot as the population of Ireland (ROI) is 4.5 and the population of New Zealand is around 4.4 million.

The UK's is going to have to build quite a few new towns or accept lower living standards (concentrated pollution, congestion etc.) to cope with the increased population.

Overall the forecast seems a little radical to me. It's like someone saying inthe next 10 years the population of Ireland is going to double - yeah right!

????

They're projecting a 6.7% increase in UK pop over the next ten years, a slightly lower growth rate than we've had over the past ten years.

How is this like someone saying the population of Ireland is going to double?

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????

They're projecting a 6.7% increase in UK pop over the next ten years, a slightly lower growth rate than we've had over the past ten years.

How is this like someone saying the population of Ireland is going to double?

So how old are the mothers having these extra children? and how many children are they having more or less than today? ;)

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I don't believe it. People born in the 1980s and 1990s are being crushed by the Ponzi economy and will likely have fewer children than people born in the 1960s and 1970s as they have very little spare time, money and living space. The UK could experience two lost decades as soon as the property bubble bursts properly, possibly leading to net emigration.

Edited by Dorkins

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Thanks.....in your diagram it shows a big increase of children around the age of 10, and if as the above suggests the most productive age for child bearing is between 25 to 35 why are the projected numbers of 35 to 45 year olds similar to what we have today, does it mean the birth rate will rise?

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That's quite a lot as the population of Ireland (ROI) is 4.5 and the population of New Zealand is around 4.4 million.

The UK's is going to have to build quite a few new towns or accept lower living standards (concentrated pollution, congestion etc.) to cope with the increased population.

and yet 90% of the north should be abandoned....

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I don't believe it. People born in the 1980s and 1990s are being crushed by the Ponzi economy and will likely have fewer children than people born in the 1960s and 1970s as they have very little spare time, money and living space. The UK could experience two lost decades as soon as the property bubble bursts properly, possibly leading to net emigration.

Poor people tend to have more children. Not like there is a baby shortage in africa!

Edited by Executive Sadman

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Thanks.....in your diagram it shows a big increase of children around the age of 10, and if as the above suggests the most productive age for child bearing is between 25 to 35 why are the projected numbers of 35 to 45 year olds similar to what we have today, does it mean the birth rate will rise?

The birth rate has already risen.

Fertility rates for the 25-29 and 30-34 age groups are higher today than they were 10 years ago, as are the rates for the 35–39 and over-40 groups.

Incidentally, I don't put too much store in the 25-year projection.

FertilityRateByAge.gif

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Poor people tend to have more children. Not like there is a baby shortage in africa!

People (especially women) with no education tend to have more children. British people born in the 1980s and 1990s don't fit this description.

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People (especially women) with no education tend to have more children. British people born in the 1980s and 1990s don't fit this description.

They are programmed. Not educated. Just as they are programmed to think cheryl cole can sing, they are programmed by this endless stream of baby shows currently on TV to procreate.

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I don't believe it. People born in the 1980s and 1990s are being crushed by the Ponzi economy and will likely have fewer children than people born in the 1960s and 1970s as they have very little spare time, money and living space. The UK could experience two lost decades as soon as the property bubble bursts properly, possibly leading to net emigration.

Or have more children as one of the only ways to get a social home or afford to live with the tax credits received?

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????

They're projecting a 6.7% increase in UK pop over the next ten years, a slightly lower growth rate than we've had over the past ten years.

How is this like someone saying the population of Ireland is going to double?

I just find hard to believe that the UK can support these extra bodies without lowering the living standards for everyone else by 7%.

I am fairly convinced that the UK is at peak population and the influx will return to brighter pastures when/if the global economy picks up. Expect TPTB to ensure that that does not happen.

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I just find hard to believe that the UK can support these extra bodies without lowering the living standards for everyone else by 7%.

I am fairly convinced that the UK is at peak population and the influx will return to brighter pastures when/if the global economy picks up. Expect TPTB to ensure that that does not happen.

Make everywhere better than everywhere else

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Is the average age high enough going for 2037?

Surely when Carney persuades chancellor Balls to instigate a new housing policy of young people being able to sell body parts to old people for house deposits, it will enable the elderly to last even longer?

The average age will only fall in later years when the PM of the newly formed New Age party instigates the Soylent Green Corporation to solve the food shortage problems.

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100k over 100's reported on 5live. I will have a look at the detail later. Immigrants needed to maintain high house prices and pensions? The nimbys will not be happy.

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How long can we carry on building just a paltry 100k homes a year? During the 1930's (with a much lower population) this country consistently built 300k homes a year. Faced with population projections like these surely it's time to relax the planning controls and open up thousands of acres of land in the south east and near growing cities for new homes.

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The birth rate has already risen.

Fertility rates for the 25-29 and 30-34 age groups are higher today than they were 10 years ago, as are the rates for the 35–39 and over-40 groups.

Incidentally, I don't put too much store in the 25-year projection.

FertilityRateByAge.gif

Child tax credits. Thank you, Grandad Gordon!

That's not the fertility rate. Not even the birth rate - it's the affordability rate.

Will be interesting to see how it applies in reverse for old people.

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I don't believe it. People born in the 1980s and 1990s are being crushed by the Ponzi economy and will likely have fewer children than people born in the 1960s and 1970s as they have very little spare time, money and living space. The UK could experience two lost decades as soon as the property bubble bursts properly, possibly leading to net emigration.

It's the mass immigration wave which is doing the reproducing, not the native gen x and gen y.

They are needed because the bottleneck of pensioners and baby boomers are all now retiring and becoming a drain on the resources of the welfare state and NHS. Obviously as they hold power in terms of votes there can be no taxes raised from their assets so we must import a new generation of taxopayers from the eastern bloc to replace and bolster the numbers of those crushed by the ponzi.

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The ONS has this morning released the latest UK population projections, based on mid-2012 population estimates and incorporating results from the 2011 census.

Headlines:

[*] The UK population is projected to increase by 9.6 million over the next 25 years from an estimated 63.7 million in mid-2012 to 73.3 million in mid-2037.

[*] The UK population is projected to reach 70 million in 2027.

[*] Projected natural increase (more births than deaths) accounts for 57 per cent of the projected increase over the next 25 years.

[*] Over the ten year period to mid-2022, the UK population is projected to increase by 4.3 million to 68.0 million.

[*] The population is projected to continue ageing with the average age rising from 39.7 years in 2012 to 40.6 years in mid-2022 and 42.8 by mid-2037.

I hope the projection was not by the same people who at the beginning of the last decade projected there would be about 50000 polish immigrants coming to the UK. :lol:

Edited by awaytogo

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