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What Effect Do You Think Opening Up Of The Eu To Romania/bulgaria Etc Will Have On The Uk Come 2014?

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I think a lot more will come than the government is predicting. It is strange that they don't want to do anything about the potential problems considering how wrong they were about the number of people who would come here when Poland entered the EU. I suspect we will have a lot of benefit tourists, big strain on housing, the NHS, education and generally things will get a lot worse for the living conditions of native Brits, having to compete for everything with people who have recently arrived and for much lower wages and worse working conditions too. But as long as the elites get their cheap labour, that is all that matters.

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Those unskilled summer jobs - kitchen portering, working in a shop - will be snapped up as will the factory ones. This will add to the unemployment figures here and will create more attacks on Britain's "lazy" young who for some reason don't expect to break their backs for minimum wage, no prospects and no thanks.

As ever with the EU mobility of employment rules this influx of cheap migrant workers is bad news if you are a British worker but good news if you are a British employer.

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Going to be hilarious for David Cameron.

He is under serious pressure from the Euroskeptic/UKIP faction as it is. A few lurid tabloid tales around the subject of a huge wave of eastern european migrants and it going to be positively hilarious.

You wonder what the Poles that are here already are going to make of it.

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I think a lot more will come than the government is predicting. It is strange that they don't want to do anything about the potential problems considering how wrong they were about the number of people who would come here when Poland entered the EU. I suspect we will have a lot of benefit tourists, big strain on housing, the NHS, education and generally things will get a lot worse for the living conditions of native Brits, having to compete for everything with people who have recently arrived and for much lower wages and worse working conditions too. But as long as the elites get their cheap labour, that is all that matters.

Very little. The rarely spoken part of the A8 accession is that the numbers were right - a range were given, and it was comfortably within the number that was expected if Britain were the only large economy not to enact transitional controls. Labour just didn't (rightly or wrongly) expect us to be the only country without transitional controls, so the number who came was the number for that situation, when they'd expected, and publicly stated, the number expected if Germany and France had as open economies as we.

In addition to which, Poland in particular has historic links with Britain. Romania and Bulgaria do not, certainly not to the same extent. Romania in particular does have extremely strong ties to France and Italy, whose labour markets are opening at the same time - they all speak latin languages, civil structures are similar, the Romanian constitution was directly based on the French constitution following the fall of communism.

In addition, Romania has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU

So since there have been years of controls, many of those who already wanted to move have moved, and have moved to the countries which are better for them, and the numbers were right last time for the circumstances which this time they know what they're going to be... why would you expect a substantial influx? There might be just enough to keep food prices from inflating even further, ask any farmer what they'd have done without them for the last five years.

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More violence probably, as gangs of Latvians fight of gangs of Bulgarians..

A bit like how the Kurdish and Iraqi asylum seekers spent their first two years in the UK stabbing each other...

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Nigel farage is on QT this week, on Boston which apparently has the largest population of Eastern Europeans in any town in the country.

It will be interesting to hear what the population of Boston say about it.

Looks like more crime, scamming, lower working class wages, higher British youth unemployment, more strain on hospitals, GP surgeries, higher rents, surging b2l and more traffic jams.

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Nigel farage is on QT this week, on Boston which apparently has the largest population of Eastern Europeans in any town in the country.

It will be interesting to hear what the population of Boston say about it.

Looks like more crime, scamming, lower working class wages, higher British youth unemployment, more strain on hospitals, GP surgeries, higher rents, surging b2l and more traffic jams.

This is the thing, immigration per say shouldn't be a bad thing, it's just been woefully miss-managed, underestimated and unprepared for.

Didn't the last government expect only a few 10,000 EEs a year instead of a month?

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I don't think that immigration in the UK would be such an issue if it weren't for the repressive planning regime and zero investment in public transport inflicted on the population.

Immigration in Ireland is not a big issue, in fact skilled is positively encouraged.

Anyone who migrates to the UK looking for a better way of life is in for a big shock. I expect the UK's population has peaked and will go into decline when opportunities for migrants to return home improve.

Again it will be a general recovery in Europe and Asia that kills the UK as interest rates rise and the immigrants migrate back home taking their wealth with them. Unless they migrated to the UK pre-2000 what possible reason would they have for staying? And even those pre-2000 with housing wealth may find better opportunities cashing in and returning home.

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I don't think that immigration in the UK would be such an issue if it weren't for the repressive planning regime and zero investment in public transport inflicted on the population.

Immigration in Ireland is not a big issue, in fact skilled is positively encouraged.

Anyone who migrates to the UK looking for a better way of life is in for a big shock. I expect the UK's population has peaked and will go into decline when opportunities for migrants to return home improve.

Again it will be a general recovery in Europe and Asia that kills the UK as interest rates rise and the immigrants migrate back home taking their wealth with them. Unless they migrated to the UK pre-2000 what possible reason would they have for staying? And even those pre-2000 with housing wealth may find better opportunities cashing in and returning home.

Sounds liek you're suggesting that UK house prices are going to fall :o

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This is the thing, immigration per say shouldn't be a bad thing, it's just been woefully miss-managed, underestimated and unprepared for.

Didn't the last government expect only a few 10,000 EEs a year instead of a month?

...the governments encouraged immigration for the good it can bring and does bring in many ways, but they intentionally or not allowed it to get out of control and did not didn't factor in the extra costs, services and infrastructure that is required to support it all. ;)

Edited by winkie

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I'm guessing the OP is right, the numbers could be big. The UK could be looking like the least worst option in 2014 with the rest of Europe stuck in genuine austerity at the same time as we go through our phoney austerity with the debt taps on full.

Should suit the equity rich non working population looking for something to bear down on inflation (wage demands) and maximise their property equity at the same time.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Very little. The rarely spoken part of the A8 accession is that the numbers were right - a range were given, and it was comfortably within the number that was expected if Britain were the only large economy not to enact transitional controls. Labour just didn't (rightly or wrongly) expect us to be the only country without transitional controls, so the number who came was the number for that situation, when they'd expected, and publicly stated, the number expected if Germany and France had as open economies as we.

In addition to which, Poland in particular has historic links with Britain. Romania and Bulgaria do not, certainly not to the same extent. Romania in particular does have extremely strong ties to France and Italy, whose labour markets are opening at the same time - they all speak latin languages, civil structures are similar, the Romanian constitution was directly based on the French constitution following the fall of communism.

In addition, Romania has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU

So since there have been years of controls, many of those who already wanted to move have moved, and have moved to the countries which are better for them, and the numbers were right last time for the circumstances which this time they know what they're going to be... why would you expect a substantial influx? There might be just enough to keep food prices from inflating even further, ask any farmer what they'd have done without them for the last five years.

The benefit systems in France and Italy (like most countries in the EU) are based much more on individual contributions than the system in the UK. Migrants from Romania and Bulgaria will be largely shut out from receiving benefits everywhere except the UK. Ignoring this fact is the same mistake as ignoring the fact that the UK was the sole large economy to open up its borders at the time of the A8 joining.

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Not many left in Bulgaria. The UK opened its doors from before 2004, when everyone with a business plan could come here and set their own business (this is where umbrella companies come into play). Also a lot of people came on work permits. Most of those people by now are with British citizenship, so numbers of pure immigrants are down, how convenient for statistics. Even now before fully opening the market anyone can come to UK (now even without a business plan) and set themselves as self employed. Hook to one of the umbrella companies and here we go. So what exactly will change in January? The possibility to become an employee?

At the same time couple of EU countries opened their markets fully to Bulgarians, so why jump through hurdles if you can get there relatively easy?

Traditionally Bulgarians headed for Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy and France because of the similar climate. Also Germany has always been a strong pulling point. A lot of import in Bulgaria is German, they like German cars to some funny effect about Golf and the city of Pernik. A lot of Russian standards are based or similar to the German DIN. Our king is Sax Cobburgh-Gotta. So is the Queen i think. From my time at school the three main foreign languages (mandatory to pick one) were German, English and french with similar distribution.

The last census shows there's about 5-6 million ppl left in Bulgaria. A lot of them pensioners or close to pension who would not move anywhere in fear they will loose their pension entitlement. Discount the babies, children and the ROMA population and u have probably 3 million ppl of working age. Remove all the businessmen, politicians and ppl in government administration and see who's left.

One last bit is as someone mentioned above, the poles have strong ties to UK evolving from WWII when a lot of polish compatriots fled their country (well, their country was no more divided between Germany and Russia) to fight on UK side. The biggest plus for polish ppl is they are united, they help and look after each other. With the bulgarians its a bit more like keep up with Joneses, they dont get well together and they always try to measure (and quite often ) overstate their financial achievements (most popular way is expression of latest gadgets, flashy mobiles, driving exciting brands of cars like BMW, VW Golf etc.). Don't get me wrong, Bulgarians are lovely, friendly people but best to be aware of some cultural differences.

Now going back to Roma, this may cause a bit of trouble. France were once very vocal towards bulgarian government to make more effort to integrate these minority into the society. When the Roma folks decided to pay France a visit they were chased and repatriated. They have their own view on society and live by their own rules, usually close to nomadic style. Also Roma people are easily influenced and readily involved or exploited by crime gangs for all sorts of activities.

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I think a lot more will come than the government is predicting. It is strange that they don't want to do anything about the potential problems considering how wrong they were about the number of people who would come here when Poland entered the EU. I suspect we will have a lot of benefit tourists, big strain on housing, the NHS, education and generally things will get a lot worse for the living conditions of native Brits, having to compete for everything with people who have recently arrived and for much lower wages and worse working conditions too. But as long as the elites get their cheap labour, that is all that matters.

I think they will look at Germany first. A welder in Germany earns close to 20 euros. Here about £7.

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I think a lot more will come than the government is predicting. It is strange that they don't want to do anything about the potential problems considering how wrong they were about the number of people who would come here when Poland entered the EU. I suspect we will have a lot of benefit tourists, big strain on housing, the NHS, education and generally things will get a lot worse for the living conditions of native Brits, having to compete for everything with people who have recently arrived and for much lower wages and worse working conditions too. But as long as the elites get their cheap labour, that is all that matters.

UKIP vote will surge, there will be more and more social tension, and the EZ will probably collapse anyway so it will not be a long term problem IMO.

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...the governments encouraged immigration for the good it can bring and does bring in many ways, but they intentionally or not allowed it to get out of control and did not didn't factor in the extra costs, services and infrastructure that is required to support it all. ;)

We had one balls up with the last lot, but the Tories are intentionally not providing any infrastructure and sitting on data that says many more will come than they think.

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Very little. The rarely spoken part of the A8 accession is that the numbers were right - a range were given, and it was comfortably within the number that was expected if Britain were the only large economy not to enact transitional controls. Labour just didn't (rightly or wrongly) expect us to be the only country without transitional controls, so the number who came was the number for that situation, when they'd expected, and publicly stated, the number expected if Germany and France had as open economies as we.

In addition to which, Poland in particular has historic links with Britain. Romania and Bulgaria do not, certainly not to the same extent. Romania in particular does have extremely strong ties to France and Italy, whose labour markets are opening at the same time - they all speak latin languages, civil structures are similar, the Romanian constitution was directly based on the French constitution following the fall of communism.

In addition, Romania has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU

So since there have been years of controls, many of those who already wanted to move have moved, and have moved to the countries which are better for them, and the numbers were right last time for the circumstances which this time they know what they're going to be... why would you expect a substantial influx? There might be just enough to keep food prices from inflating even further, ask any farmer what they'd have done without them for the last five years.

Sounds about right probably, but that story won`t sell papers. (Does anybody still buy papers?)

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I think they will look at Germany first. A welder in Germany earns close to 20 euros. Here about £7.

I agree, but I still think it will help put downward pressure on pay at the lower end of the job market.

A few years ago my block of flats was refurbished. All the workers, except the electricians were Romanian I was talking to the foreman (the only guy who could speak English) and he was complaining that the pay had dropped so much that this would be his last UK job, him and his team would be heading for Germany next.

This was well before opening up the EU to Romanians etc., so how did they end up working in the UK?

Very nice people though, worked very hard too.

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I agree, but I still think it will help put downward pressure on pay at the lower end of the job market.

A few years ago my block of flats was refurbished. All the workers, except the electricians were Romanian I was talking to the foreman (the only guy who could speak English) and he was complaining that the pay had dropped so much that this would be his last UK job, him and his team would be heading for Germany next.

This was well before opening up the EU to Romanians etc., so how did they end up working in the UK?

Very nice people though, worked very hard too.

One taxi company in Plymouth specifcally recruits in Romania.

I have no issue with Romanians (or Poles, Latvians etc.), the ones I have encountered have been very civil (unlike bloody Russinas on holiday) but I do have an issue that they are under-cutting locals for jobs that they could perfectly well do, thus leaving them in a benefits-trap.

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The Office of Budget Responsibility are up for more immigrants

Britain needs millions more immigrants to reduce strain of ageing population

Its analysis suggests that Britain's borrowing as a propotion of GDP would rise to 99 per cent if there is a steady flow of immigrants. If there was a complete ban on immigrants, borrowing would rise to 174 per cent of GDP

The OBR found that Britain's ageing population and strained healthcare system means that there will need to be an extra £19billion of spending cuts or tax rises after 2019.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10185342/Britain-needs-millions-more-immigrants-to-reduce-strain-of-ageing-population.html

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I don't think that immigration in the UK would be such an issue if it weren't for the repressive planning regime and zero investment in public transport inflicted on the population.

Immigration in Ireland is not a big issue, in fact skilled is positively encouraged.

Anyone who migrates to the UK looking for a better way of life is in for a big shock. I expect the UK's population has peaked and will go into decline when opportunities for migrants to return home improve.

Again it will be a general recovery in Europe and Asia that kills the UK as interest rates rise and the immigrants migrate back home taking their wealth with them. Unless they migrated to the UK pre-2000 what possible reason would they have for staying? And even those pre-2000 with housing wealth may find better opportunities cashing in and returning home.

Population density in the UK is a lot higher than in Ireland (679 per square mile compared to 168). You are not comparing like for like.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_population_density

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