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Gel

Now We Have Been Waitin Gfor A Crash For Two Years Now...

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Okay, so we have been waiting for a crash to happen for ages now, the bubble is waiting to burst so to speak but surely the longer it takes to go pop the less chance there will be of a crash as once wages come into line with house prices there shouldn't be a crash or at least not much of one?

If this is the case how long do we think before the wages are in line with house prices at 2001 level?

Or am I talking bs?

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Tony Blair paid £3.65mil for his place in Belgravia, after the seller knocker £300k off the asking price of £3.95mil. Wow, did he think he got a bargain.

Yet there are now better houses in the same road selling for less, estimates reckon he'd be lucky to get £3mil for the place now.

So he's down about 18% down in capital, it took him 6 months to find a tenant, and they're only paying 8 grand a month of the 13 grand mortgage.

We're about a year into this crash, things are chugging along very nicely thank you.

Edited by BandWagon

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Okay, so we have been waiting for a crash to happen for ages now, the bubble is waiting to burst so to speak but surely the longer it takes to go pop the less chance there will be of a crash as once wages come into line with house prices there shouldn't be a crash or at least not much of one?

If this is the case how long do we think before the wages are in line with house prices at 2001 level?

Or am I talking bs?

Yeah, you're right Gel, another seven or eight years of stagnation and people will be wondering what all the fuss was about.

I'm not sure why you choose 2001 prices but the stagnation theory requires a Goldilocks scenario for a looooong time. Somehow I strongly doubt it is going to happen (for example, at present we are seeing inflation falling and economic growth falling, both of which point to lower wage growth... but that's OK, we can just extend the stagnation period a couple more years).

It seems like a fatasist's view to me - what bulls who acknowledge there is an issue WANT to believe will happen.

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I'm with you bandwagon.

"The first time buyer share of the market dropped to 9% in October"

Extracted from here -

National Assoc. of Estate Agents.

In a healthy market that is usually between 45% - 55%. Ho hum.

22 Flats (sorry apartments!) built opposite me 18 months ago, 2 bed, two bath jobbies. According to nethouseprices.com only 11 are sold.

Crash is so emotive darlings, that word should be reserved for the stockmarket, the long-slow-slide is on course.

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The housing market WILL CRASH. It's not a matter of if but a matter of when. Personally I will wait as long as it takes. I see no advantage in buying an overpriced shack, but every advantage in buying when prices have fallen back say 30%. If it takes a few more years so be it. By then, I will have enough saved to buy outright and will actually own my home.

The only thing that amazes me is how willing the majority are to buy into this rubbish and therefore keep it propped up, more fool them. Patience is the key here, hard though it is to be patient it will definitely pay off in the end. As for stagnation, I just don't see if happening, no way no how.

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Reports last week of house prices dropping in Glasgow by 12% in 3 months. Surpised me as I expected these reports to start in London first , but up North !!!! Wow !!!!

Momentum is starting nicely thankyou.

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"The first time buyer share of the market dropped to 9% in October"

In a healthy market that is usually between 45% - 55%. Ho hum.

Do you seriously expect us to believe that 50% of all house sales are to FTBs in a 'healthy market'?

Where did you get the 45% to 55% figure from?

Edited by ILBB

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Do you seriously expect us to believe that 50% of all house sales are to FTBs in a 'healthy market'?

Where did you get the 45% to 55% figure from?

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=19456

Sorry but I dispute this figure. In general, though there are minor exceptions, we are FTB's once in a lifetime. However we, on average, move house every seven years thereafter. Assuming a further four to five moves in a lifetime of owning I would suggest a more usual figure of 15% tp 20% of house buyers would actually be FTBs.

Try this site and look at the FTB chart for 1998/9

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical...e_StampDuty.pdf

Quoting unrealistic figures in the support of the FTB does not do their cause or this site any favours.

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Do you seriously expect us to believe that 50% of all house sales are to FTBs in a 'healthy market'?

Where did you get the 45% to 55% figure from?

Why, my dear, I made them up of course!

(thanks 'since the beginning' for the link)

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  • 341 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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