Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Ologhai Jones

Scrap Help To Buy Petition

Recommended Posts

There is approximately zero chance of HTB being scrapped, it's the cornerstone of Osborne's reelection bid.

captain_hat_floating.jpg

Still be nice to see public support for this, for what its worth. Ive signed it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still be nice to see public support for this, for what its worth. Ive signed it.

Fair enough.

For those with Con/Lib MPs defending majorities which are not safe (whatever that means, I reckon 5,000 in some cases), it might be worth a letter to inform them that HTB is a vote loser (if indeed that is the case!). I doubt it'll change their mind but a bit of doubt as to the universal benefit of the system wouldn;t go amiss. My MP (Con, maj ~2,500) has staunchly defended HTB in written correspondence but has remained strangely silent in public. He knows full well he's on a downer on this one but his slavish party loyalties take priority.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fair enough.

For those with Con/Lib MPs defending majorities which are not safe (whatever that means, I reckon 5,000 in some cases), it might be worth a letter to inform them that HTB is a vote loser (if indeed that is the case!). I doubt it'll change their mind but a bit of doubt as to the universal benefit of the system wouldn;t go amiss. My MP (Con, maj ~2,500) has staunchly defended HTB in written correspondence but has remained strangely silent in public. He knows full well he's on a downer on this one but his slavish party loyalties take priority.

Sadly I think it is a vote winner. I don't think it is a good idea BTW.

Three questions

1) Who was the last PM to see house prices decline?

2) Who was the last PM to lose by a record majority?

3) Were the two things connected?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something I just noticed with the petition. I clicked on refresh and there were 60 signed so far I clicked refresh again and it went down to 59 next back to 60 next back to 59 next back to 60????

are these epetitions manipulated?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sadly I think it is a vote winner. I don't think it is a good idea BTW.

Three questions

1) Who was the last PM to see house prices decline?

2) Who was the last PM to lose by a record majority?

3) Were the two things connected?

1) Gordon Brown (house prices fell between June 2007 and May 2010) :P

2) John Major lost a landslide election in 1997, 2010 resulted in a hung Parliament

3) Probably not

I'm guessing you meant that house prices dropped on Major's watch, which is true, but he actually won the April 1992 election which was held in the middle of years of falling house prices.

house-price-inflation-1970-2013-500x468.png

The example of Major suggests that the connection between house prices and election victories is not as clear cut as you might think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

house-price-inflation-1970-2013-500x468.png

The example of Major suggests that the connection between house prices and election victories is not as clear cut as you might think.

Possibly not, but the correlation between house price inflation and potential General Election dates is unmistakable: 1970/1, 1978/9, 1983/4, 1987/8, 1996/7, 2004/5, 2010.

.

Edited by zugzwang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1) Gordon Brown (house prices fell between June 2007 and May 2010) :P

2) John Major lost a landslide election in 1997, 2010 resulted in a hung Parliament

3) Probably not

I'm guessing you meant that house prices dropped on Major's watch, which is true, but he actually won the April 1992 election which was held in the middle of years of falling house prices.

The example of Major suggests that the connection between house prices and election victories is not as clear cut as you might think.

As Bill Clinton never said: it's the demographics, stupid.

If house price deflation benefits a larger demographic (in terms of voting likelihood, not necessarily raw numbers of people) than it hinders, it'll be neutral/somewhat beneficial to the incumbent.

If house price deflation hinders a larger demographic than it benefits, it'll be very bad for the incumbent.

This I why I fear that, unfortunately, we will only see normalisation of the house prices in the UK when the generation with paid-off mortgages start to realise the devastation that the market-rigging (which benefits them personally with unearned gains) is causing to their countrymen and when they put aside their own self-interest to start demanding something be done about it. The alternative, I fear, is a decade or two of prime life ruined for a younger generation followed by a very nasty backlash against an older generation once their numbers start to dwindle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Possibly not, but the correlation between house price inflation and potential General Election dates is unmistakable: 1970/1, 1978/9, 1983/4, 1987/8, 1996/7, 2004/5, 2010.

.

But in four of those seven elections the incumbent government lost, so isn't the conclusion perhaps that politicians think that HPI wins them elections, but actually it doesn't?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As Bill Clinton never said: it's the demographics, stupid.

If house price deflation benefits a larger demographic (in terms of voting likelihood, not necessarily raw numbers of people) than it hinders, it'll be neutral/somewhat beneficial to the incumbent.

If house price deflation hinders a larger demographic than it benefits, it'll be very bad for the incumbent.

This I why I fear that, unfortunately, we will only see normalisation of the house prices in the UK when the generation with paid-off mortgages start to realise the devastation that the market-rigging (which benefits them personally with unearned gains) is causing to their countrymen and when they put aside their own self-interest to start demanding something be done about it. The alternative, I fear, is a decade or two of prime life ruined for a younger generation followed by a very nasty backlash against an older generation once their numbers start to dwindle.

I agree although I would say that house price deflation is beneficial to more people than it harms. The problems more people perceive it as harmful than beneficial (it isn't harmful for most of them but perception is more important).

I still think the John Major experience from 1997 has haunted all governments since then.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The panacea is not Socialism. Instead it is capitalism. Let market set interest rates. You know the rest

A 'Market Interest Rate' petition might do better. Those older with savings would welcome it, those younger with no hope of buying property would welcome it, those over-extended idiots who collectively got us into this mess will not like it. The first 2 groups outnumber the last.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The panacea is not Socialism. Instead it is capitalism. Let market set interest rates. You know the rest

The truth is that nobody likes capitalism and nobody wants it. The poor don't want it because they benefit more from socialism in the form of welfare- the middle class don't want it because it would decimate the 'value' of their houses and the rich don't want it because the invisible hand would bitchslap them bigtime if they were not bailed out at increasingly frequent intervals.

In reality no one would vote for a Capitalist party- which is why the Tories have prudently adopted a socialist agenda- allbeit one aligned with the interests of their core supporters.

Edited by wonderpup

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The truth is that nobody likes capitalism and nobody wants it. The poor don't want it because they benefit more from socialism in the form of welfare- the middle class don't want it because it would decimate the 'value' of their houses and the rich don't want it because the invisible hand would bitchslap them bigtime if they were not bailed out at increasingly frequent intervals.

In reality no one would vote for a Capitalist party- which is why the Tories have prudently adopted a socialist agenda- allbeit one aligned with the interests of their core supporters.

Rubbish. Thatcher - 3 wins and allowed Major the 4th

Edited by Killer Bunny

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The truth is that nobody likes capitalism and nobody wants it. The poor don't want it because they benefit more from socialism in the form of welfare- the middle class don't want it because it would decimate the 'value' of their houses and the rich don't want it because the invisible hand would bitchslap them bigtime if they were not bailed out at increasingly frequent intervals.

In reality no one would vote for a Capitalist party- which is why the Tories have prudently adopted a socialist agenda- allbeit one aligned with the interests of their core supporters.

certainly the winner takes it all capitalism doesn't work for the majority.

First they they came for the coal miners I wasn't a coal miner so I didn't fight for them.

then they came for the working class I wasn't working class so I didn't fight for them

then they came for the middle class.......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   215 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.