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Frank Hovis

View From The Industry - Signfiicant Falls

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Housing conference in London and amongst other things the speaker on economic forecasting mentioned to plan to allow for one third falls in property prices when making plans for new developments. There were no objections to this view and afterwards it wasn't a major point of discussion, when it did come up people pretty much agreed that it would happen (if unclear what date to factor it in) and thought that in general it would be a good thing.

This was dealing with the market outside of London. The London market was discussed but no clear view was taken, maybe it will collapse or maybe more safe-haven money will lift it even higher for a few more years. The central London market is being driven by factors outside Britain so who knows. It's good to see a forecaster admitting that some things are not predictable, it adds credibility to what they are predicting.

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Agents must be kicking themselves for loading up on property back in the late 00's. Since the agents business is a commission based on turnover, the lower property prices the more transactions take place.

Estate agents ramping the market does not make sense unless they are attempting to offload their own property or encourage the over leveraged to part at a loss.

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