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Flash

Ireland Prices Will Fall, Housing Debate Told

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Today's free Metro newspaper in Dublin has a cracking front page:

House Prices "to fall by 20%"

If that's not all, the article is fabulously bearish.

"Experts warned homes were 'seriously overvalued' and prices could TUMBLE by as much as 20% over the next five years."

:blink:

"the only way for market is down, said economics editor of The Economist magazine"

:blink::blink:

"If you look at the ratio of house prices to average incomes in different countries, Ireland has the most expensive in the world."

:o

"Her warning came as European Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet signalled he was ready to put up rates for the first time in two years."

:D

Every other person on the train this morning had a copy of this on their lap. This is bound to affect sentiment.

Now the VI's will switch the machine to super-fast spin cycle.

Edited by Flash

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The mere mention of a drop of the order of 20% would stampede investors and overstretched mortgagees to panic sell. That in turn will cause the market to fall much more than 20%. The history of housing cycles (see "The Chart" on HPC home page) shows that the drop is always around 50% of the previous peak. If prices in IR are up 120% we can expect a correction of the order of 60% over about 2 to 3 years with the sharpest decline coming in the first 12 months.

The only thing keeping the bubble from popping is the VI propaganda machine. Once the press see that they can boost circulation with dramatic stories about how prices are falling the terror will spread and the herd will begin the stampede. It happens every time.

Keep the faith and remember the immutable law of economics that says that what goes up must come down and the higher it rises the farther it has to fall. Don't you love immutable laws! :lol:

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20%?

Its going to be more than that. 70% plus is perfectly possible in some places.

I think you are right, and the Irish crash, so close to home will bring on the same in the UK.

However bad our economy is , it fails to match the EU funded, non industrial and non manufacturing Irish economy.

Therefore i see it as 50-70% in Ireland and 30-50% here.

I am anticipating such falls around October 2006, whem i intend to buy. I will be looking for one of the real

-50% bargains that will be out there from hoards of the poor reposessed. I take no satisfaction from profitting from others financial misfortune, but most of their demise will be a mixture of ignorance stubborness and greed. Those in seriousd debt should sell now before it gets really bad........... :blink:

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Don’t forget that the Irish are the biggest foreign investors in UK property, most using ‘equity’ from their own vastly over inflated homes to buy slightly less over inflated flats in the UK. With prices falling across the States now any American investor considering Ireland as a location for their business will look at relocation and accommodation costs and dump the Irish option in the trash can.

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With prices falling across the States now any American investor considering Ireland as a location for their business will look at relocation and accommodation costs and dump the Irish option in the trash can.

Excellent point. We hear so much in the media about "maintaining competitiveness" in the Irish economy, as being the key to future prosperity. Well how uncompetitive is it to have the most overvalued property market in the world?

A crash in property prices, despite being a nightmare for many heavily indebted homeowners, is (in the long-term) what the country needs to maintain foreign investment. It will also ensure that our children are not enslaved to unscrupulous money lenders for their entire working lives, just to be able to afford a two-bed cardboard box in Dublin.

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House prices in Ireland have been over the top for quite some time now.

Most young people have no idea what type of mortgage they are on (IO, repayment) or what the rate is.

Anecdotally, I spoke to a group of about 10 lads about debt in Ireland.

They told me that all of them spent more than they earned because "you have to, to keep up".

Another told me that he had to earn nearly E2000 per month before he started eating (mortgage and childcare costs).

Yet another revealed that he had a mortgage and 25k on credit cards.

I knew it was bad, but what I found was genuinely frightening.

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And that pair of nutters Adams and McGuinness want a united Ireland. Northern Ireland has some of the lowest house prices in the whole of the U.K and Ireland and still people cannot afford them and there are mortgage areas and repo's at record levels.

£100K can buy you a very nice brand new semi with ensuite and large garden.Mill_Farm.htm

Mill_Farm.htm

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20%?

Its going to be more than that. 70% plus is perfectly possible in some places.

I think you are right, and the Irish crash, so close to home will bring on the same in the UK.

However bad our economy is , it fails to match the EU funded, non industrial and non manufacturing Irish economy.

Therefore i see it as 50-70% in Ireland and 30-50% here.

I am anticipating such falls around October 2006, whem i intend to buy. I will be looking for one of the real

-50% bargains that will be out there from hoards of the poor reposessed. I take no satisfaction from profitting from others financial misfortune, but most of their demise will be a mixture of ignorance stubborness and greed. Those in seriousd debt should sell now before it gets really bad........... :blink:

I am hoping to buy around the same time as you, but I am not convinced I won't have to wait a further 12 months. Views?

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Ireland House Prices to Fall

Okay, so most people will here in Ireland will believe the ESRI and reject The Economist's view out of hand. But at least it is being debated.

Ten days to go and counting until the first ECB rate rise. This is about to get fascinating.

the irish market is an accident waiting to happen .......they have an anglo saxon UK, US Aus,NZ)type attitute to property combined with 2% Euro IRs ....................

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the irish market is an accident waiting to happen .......they have an anglo saxon UK, US Aus,NZ)type attitute to property combined with 2% Euro IRs ....................

No crash in ireland before the election in 2007

Id put my SSIA on it :lol:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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