The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

[HariSeldon]

17 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

and a world where money printing will actually instantly equal massive inflation in bitcoin (the world value marker) is a world where any chav can’t just buy a great big expensive sports car on finance. So bitcoin will require a lot of energy, but it will also kill off a lot of inefficiency’s in the modern world, kill off unproductive zombie companies, prevent endless consumerism in badly made tat, return quality in products. prevent slavery wages, it won’t allow politicians to get away with short term thinking. 

the productive in society could actually save outside the rigged system, wont be trapped paying a mortgage for their whole productive life and beyond. Boomers would suddenly find the world much fairer and themselves broke. 

bitcoin could save the environment, drive human progress forcing us to be more efficient, getting rid of huge chunks of the banking system, it’s hard money, it’s gold

You sound like you are losing the plot - so much nonsense you've written there that it's difficult to know where to start  ?

What's a "world value marker" and why is Bitcoin it?

Why would Boomers be broke, presumably they just sell their mortgage-paid-off houses to Bitcoin sellers and downsize pocketing a wad of cash?

How is Bitcoin "hard money?" After a decade of being around there is hardly anywhere you can spend it without first converting it into real USD/GBP hard money.

How does Bitcoin "return quality in products?" Honestly, your claims are ridiculous.

[jiltedjen]

1 hour ago, HariSeldon said:

You sound like you are losing the plot - so much nonsense you've written there that it's difficult to know where to start  ?

What's a "world value marker" and why is Bitcoin it?

Why would Boomers be broke, presumably they just sell their mortgage-paid-off houses to Bitcoin sellers and downsize pocketing a wad of cash?

How is Bitcoin "hard money?" After a decade of being around there is hardly anywhere you can spend it without first converting it into real USD/GBP hard money.

How does Bitcoin "return quality in products?" Honestly, your claims are ridiculous.

Value marker - non government controlled marker of value, governments can hide poor policy with manipulated inflation stats (our don’t  even include the cost of houses!) but when bitcoin becomes the ultimate value marker governments won’t be able to hide the damage they cause

Broke boomers - boomers have all their value in houses, houses are expensive as they are one of the only true stores of value in the U.K. when bitcoin becomes the obvious place to store value, then houses will return to utility value, which is several times lower than their current price. boomers are too feckless to invest in bitcoin, and will be left behind. bitcoin will be the biggest wealth transfer between generation in history. coupled with inflation suddenly spiking as fiat looses out massively to bitcoin, inflation linked pensions will only track inflation to a cap, and that cap will be exceeded very quickly. It will happen slowly at first, then suddenly all at once. so for boomers, worthless pensions and main asset losing most of its value. 

Hard money - Bitcoin is truely limited, very rare, it’s the hardest form of money humans have ever seen. it has an open ledger so cannot be manipulated like gold can be. Just as gold historically (but no longer) was a value store until technology and ‘paper contracts’ took it over, bitcoin will take on the role of gold moving forward. Bitcoin won’t be used to buy coffee but will replace houses and gold as a value store. USD and the pound are very soft money, and both are trending to zeros value, no sane person would keep much savings in fiat unless you were expecting to pick up bargain shares in a panic. 

quality products - currently money is easily printed and lent out to any feckless morons (as can be seen by the rubbish quality ‘posh cars’ all over U.K. roads) when bitcoin becomes the main value store, places which actually create true value won’t want to be making endless tat for plummeting dollars or pounds, they will insist on contracts either tied to the projected value of bitcoin or want huge interest rates to cope with plummeting fiat. thus fewer buyers, buyers who’s do buy will have the money to do so, with little leverage and thus care much more about quality. an easy money world just lowers quality, people don’t keep things long enough to break. bitcoin will do wonders for the environment, and pause run away consumption. The morons will still have cars, but the days of buying second hand fiestas will be back, and status could return to actual nice vehicles. 

Bitcoin changes everything, you can’t put it back into the bottle, it can’t be un-invented. Human nature itself will drive it forward, greed, fear, desperation, just as countless bubbles in the past sucked whole populace’s in, bitcoin will be the first world-wide bubble, except production is rigid and extremely limited, and it has virtually endless space to grow, I don’t doubt it will peak eventually as an insanely high figure, several Billions a coin, then fall back to a few million a coin, but eventually it will stabilise and grow as the world population grows.  

anyone who understands bitcoin has an idea of history, politics, economics and human phycology can see the direction bitcoin is heading. it’s pretty scary how much bitcoin is going to be once in 1000 year change to human lives. Bigger than the telephone, the internet etc. 

Edited November 6, 2019 by jiltedjen

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, HariSeldon said:

Wow, can you predict December 2021's winning lottery numbers too? That's an outrageous claim to make and you cannot possibly know what Bitcoin will be worth in two year's time, for all you know it could be worthless by then.

Why hodl? What is the point of it all if the only reason to buy is to hold and hope enough other people do the same to push the price up? You are practically admitting that the whole thing is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme and as with all such things, the people who will lose are those buying now - anyone thinking of buying at the current price needs their head examining.

Lottery numbers are random and cannot be predicted.  The price of Bitcoin - whilst not perfectly predictable by any means - is not random.  Investing in anything (be it shares, Bitcoin or whatever) requires conviction, i.e. you believe that for reason X or Y the price is likely to increase.  Mark obviously holds the conviction that Bitcoin will outperform other assets from 2017 to 2021.  That isn't outrageous by any means - after all SOMETHING must be the asset that returns the most over that time period.  None of us know what it is, and all of us likely hold different views.

As to the "people buying now will lose" just remember that this thread started in 2013 called the "Bubbly" bitcoin thread i.e. it was believed to be in a bubble at the time.  The price then was $200.  Lots of people on there with comments like "wish I'd bought at $20".  The price now is over $9,000. 

I'm not going to throw out guesses for what the Bitcoin price will do.  But the fact we don't know what the price in 2021 will be diesn't make $9,000 bad value, any more than the fact the people in 2013 didn't know what the price would be in 2019 means $200 was bad value.  You have to form your view (whichever way) and go with it. 

[markyh]

3 hours ago, HariSeldon said:

 

Wow, can you predict December 2021's winning lottery numbers too? That's an outrageous claim to make and you cannot possibly know what Bitcoin will be worth in two year's time, for all you know it could be worthless by then.

 

Ok , another no-coiner for the future gloat recall list, noted. Far to vague "December 2021 winning lottery numbers" , I need to know which week you want that December, and a Wednesday or a Saturday that week?

[markyh]

15 hours ago, HariSeldon said:

 

You are practically admitting that the whole thing is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme and as with all such things, the people who will lose are those buying now - anyone thinking of buying at the current price needs their head examining.

Please explain in detail why its a Ponzi.  Then try and find any Ponzi in history that hasn't collapsed to zero, but has lost 80-90% of value from peak to bottom 5 times over 10 years and is still going? Happy to be proved wrong.

Bitcoin is cheap now, still now over 1/2 price to 2017 ATH and at a 35% to the 2019 local high. Would love too hear from any 2019 Bitcoin newbies silently following this thread who took our advise and bought at least 1 bitcoin in the $3500-$4500 ranger ealier this year and what their thoughts are now? 

If I was a Gen Y , millennial housing loser locked out of owning in the UK because of price I would be seeking any proven high return asset to put some of my money into in hope it gets me the chance to be a hone owner. One £8k BTC now could be worth £150k in 2 years or £500k in 6 years.

I'm a Gen X winner, top of the property tree, who took a long term investment decision on Bitcoin in 2013 as I wanted what the winner Bommers had, mortgage free big house and lots of money for retirement by 55.  As it stands I now have a good chance of achieving this with Bitcoin in the next 2 years.

[markyh]

15 hours ago, HariSeldon said:

 

Why hodl? What is the point of it all if the only reason to buy is to hold and hope enough other people do the same to push the price up? 

You really need to educate yourself about bitcoin. You Hodl because of the "Rule of the 10 best days" as explained by Tom Lee. which also applies to the S&P 500.  In short trading is a mugs game because its rigged by whales, like any other market. But if you don't sell, you cant be forced to play their game.

In recent news, Thomas Lee, the co-founder of Fundstrat, tweeted a reminder to all the crypto enthusiasts and traders that the majority of Bitcoin gains come from the rule of 10 best days.

While today the crypto markets are starting to look a little alive and is seeing a somewhat green pattern, Tom Lee from Fundstrat tweeted a sort of reminder about the rule of 10 best days. He says that the majority of Bitcoin gains come in the ten best trading days. According to Lee, this only happens once a year. Moreover, he claims that when these ten best trading days are excluded, Bitcoin sees a -25% per year. 

More specifically, in the last bull run of 2017 Bitcoin saw an unbelievable rise of +1,136% in price. Also, in the so-called “crypto winter” of 2018 when all the crypto market saw a heavy decline, Bitcoin’s price increased by +66% in the “10 best days”.

But when looking at this statistic by excluding these ten best days, the overall price of Bitcoin has seen some significant losses. For example, in 2017 while Bitcoin’s price increased +232% it also experienced a 140% decline. Tom Lee paints some similarities in 2013 and 2014 when the price of Bitcoin lost 199% and 133%. Considering all that, Thomas Lee says that since 2013, if the ten best trading days are excluded, Bitcoin sees an average of -25% annually.

It’s All About HODLing

According to Thomas Lee, if a person doesn’t HODL his portfolio during these ten best days of the year, his portfolio lost an average of 25% of his investments. This is very similar to S&P 500, where if an investor or a trader doesn’t hold his portfolio of stocks throughout the ten best trading days, his portfolio lost an average drop from 5.4% to 9.2%. This is one of the main reasons why “it’s all about hodling”.

[markyh]

15 hours ago, HariSeldon said:

Right, so not a savings vehicle at all then as jiltedjen claims but actually an investment product in which you could lose the whole lot. Bitcoin has only been around for ten years so to claim "it has never lost money in any 4 year timeframe, ever" is more than a little contrived.

 

Its actually a Trustless peer to peer Digital currency, with no counterparty risk, that solves the Byzantine Generals Problem, which very very smart people have been trying to solve for hundreds of years.

My statement may seem contrived, but its true, more so that I haven't cherry picked any particular timeframe. Over its whole existence Bitcoin has never lost money in ay 4 year period. This will remain true until December 17th 2021 if we have no passed $20k.

Then it will be false. Until then you gotta be in it to win it.

[scottbeard]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

Bitcoin is cheap now, still now over 1/2 price to 2017 ATH and at a 35% to the 2019 local high. Would love too hear from any 2019 Bitcoin newbies silently following this thread who took our advise and bought at least 1 bitcoin in the $3500-$4500 ranger ealier this year and what their thoughts are now? 

Well I'm hardly silent, but I bought BTC for the first time this March, only about 0.75 BTC though.

My logic was that after everything I'd read I asked myself "will BTC ever go above it's all time high of $20,000 again?".  I decided that it would.  With the price then about $3,500 I decided it was worth a gamble.

However, BTC - like any risky investment - could fall to zero, so I only invested as much money as I am prepared to completely lose if it turns out I'm wrong.

[markyh]

1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Well I'm hardly silent, but I bought BTC for the first time this March, only about 0.75 BTC though.

My logic was that after everything I'd read I asked myself "will BTC ever go above it's all time high of $20,000 again?".  I decided that it would.  With the price then about $3,500 I decided it was worth a gamble.

However, BTC - like any risky investment - could fall to zero, so I only invested as much money as I am prepared to completely lose if it turns out I'm wrong.

Well done. Nice timing and feel happy you made the highest returning %!investment worldwide of 2019. Any investment can go to zero value, but unlike stocks Bitcoin can’t because they company goes bust like my shares in Carillion plc, or like a National currency because the state abandons it, or like property around Chernobyl because the land is rendered uninhabitable. I my mind an asset that has boomed then lost value by 80-90% plus, but each time recovered to new all time highs in 4 years or under is amazingly resilient and worth holding long term. 

[HariSeldon]

43 minutes ago, markyh said:

Any investment can go to zero value, but unlike stocks Bitcoin can’t

Perhaps not zero because someone may still have a use for it but Bitcoin could easily become practically worthless for all intents and purposes if it falls out of favour in the future. The whole Bitcoin ponzi scheme relies on sentiment and when that sentiment turns negative I think there will many on here who rue the day they believed in "the Hodl."

[markyh]

7 minutes ago, HariSeldon said:

Perhaps not zero because someone may still have a use for it but Bitcoin could easily become practically worthless for all intents and purposes if it falls out of favour in the future. The whole Bitcoin ponzi scheme relies on sentiment and when that sentiment turns negative I think there will many on here who rue the day they believed in "the Hodl."

I ask again. Please explain why Bitcoin is a Ponzi? I'm intrigued with your Wisdom? 

There are only 3 assets I can think of that sentiment wont affect their value, 2 are currently free, and one is mostly free if you have storage. Sunshine, Air and Water.  Everything else can go to Zero, or practically zero if sentiment (or utility) falls out of favour. But for any asset you cant create more of at will with demand, or supply can only ever be met slowly with demand, long term depending on sentiment, prices will rise. 

Even if we assume miners worldwide dump 100% of Bitcoin block rewards and fees into FIAT as they get it, that sell pressure will drop 50% in under six months due to the halving, because they will receive 50% less from the block reward. If the price doesn't respond then a load of miners will switch of because they are unprofitable, the price will remain the same, the difficulty will adjust after 2 weeks and the network will balance out with less miners. 

But that has never happened yet to date, what happens with reduced supply to the market and constant demand the price rises. 

[longgone]

4 hours ago, markyh said:

Its actually a Trustless peer to peer Digital currency, with no counterparty risk, that solves the Byzantine Generals Problem, which very very smart people have been trying to solve for hundreds of years.

My statement may seem contrived, but its true, more so that I haven't cherry picked any particular timeframe. Over its whole existence Bitcoin has never lost money in ay 4 year period. This will remain true until December 17th 2021 if we have no passed $20k.

Then it will be false. Until then you gotta be in it to win it.

I was hoping they would of dropped to 1k I would have bought 10

[markyh]

While we are entertaining ourselves having discussions with nocoiners about while crypto is going to zero, just want to point out for those that don't know about Richard Hearts new Crypto specifically designed to pump , and Hodl , with bonuses. Hex. 

He is also not doing and ICO so its not a USA security, but a 360 day reducing "freeclaim" @ 10k Hex per BTC for every current BTC Holder, but not for Multisig so you need your BTC off exchanges in a Hardware / software wallet at the snapshot soon. Then you need your priv key to claim too. 

An interesting thought out project and if nothing else another Crypto dividend if you hold BTC and claim it. But you cant pump and dump it by design, only timelock Hodl it.

https://www.hex.win/

He explains a fair bit about it in one of his more chilled recent YouTube videos here ; 

 

So he and the website say should be launched this month, maybe. Have my BTC on one address in a Ledger Nano S so plain to claim my in full with bonus day 1 at launch.

[markyh]

44 minutes ago, longgone said:

I was hoping they would of dropped to 1k I would have bought 10

Lol. You had plenty of time to think about it and do it, from 2009 to 27/3/2019 , which was the last time it traded under $1000.  But remember in 2015 all the "experts" said it's going to zero. Now it's been 20 x that level and currently 9 x that level everyone wants to the a hindsight time travel investor.

[longgone]

38 minutes ago, markyh said:

Lol. You had plenty of time to think about it and do it, from 2009 to 27/3/2019 , which was the last time it traded under $1000.  But remember in 2015 all the "experts" said it's going to zero. Now it's been 20 x that level and currently 9 x that level everyone wants to the a hindsight time travel investor.

Human nature.  i bet you wished you bought 5000 instead of wasting leccy on mining the stuff  at 10p each ?

[goldbug9999]

On 07/11/2019 at 11:35, HariSeldon said:

 The whole Bitcoin ponzi scheme relies on sentiment 

If there was a "no shit sherlock" nobel category you'd have it sown up. Of course it relies on sentiment, its a sodding currency, what else is it going to rely on ?.

Edited November 15, 2019 by goldbug9999

[reddog]

Bitcoin looking like it is going to go under $8k again.

 

Is this just the whales playing the price like an accordion?  Or something more serious?

 

Just read a couple of articles saying that the bitcoin market has never been this bearish six months before a halving before.

[jiltedjen]

its more or less where you would expect the price to be, around 200 days to halving, wont get interesting again until January/February.

everything else is just day traders, at the moment most of the people interesting in getting a decent position probably have done so. 

Halving mania is still to hit, plus any demand at the moment even if its just keeping the price relatively stable is suddenly turned into a force for driving the price higher come the halving without even having any additional buying demand.  

[scottbeard]

11 hours ago, reddog said:

Bitcoin looking like it is going to go under $8k again.

Is this just the whales playing the price like an accordion?  Or something more serious?

Just read a couple of articles saying that the bitcoin market has never been this bearish six months before a halving before.

But then it started 2019 at $4k, so has still more than doubled over the year, even if it has come down from its highest point.   

[pmf170170]

On 14/09/2019 at 18:18, GreenDevil said:

have Btc, ltc, xrp, eos, eth

Are these varieties of tulip bulbs? 

[GreenDevil]

6 hours ago, pmf170170 said:

Are these varieties of tulip bulbs? 

Still have them. Currently they are valued at 60% off their all time high prices. In cash terms, that's quite significant but still 4x my original investment. Almost as much as property has risen in the last 25 years! 

[jiltedjen]

6 hours ago, pmf170170 said:

Are these varieties of tulip bulbs? 

OK Boomer

[reddog]

Bitcoin now well under $8k, what is the next move?  Up or down?

[markyh]

3 hours ago, reddog said:

Bitcoin now well under $8k, what is the next move?  Up or down?

No idea. toss a coin. But if it goes back down to retest the 200 WMA around $5k now i'm adding to my position.

[jiltedjen]

Starting to get quite cheap now. Could be a good time to load up before the halving for those thinking about taking a position