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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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20 minutes ago, longgone said:

Lol  

Its good to know a few got life changing amounts shame i was not part of the clan 5k probably would have been enough

When I initially invested I thought that I was late to the party but I took that risk on the chin. Obviously it is clear now that I was incorrect in my assumption. Why do you believe that it’s too late now? What return do you think that a £5k of investment into Bitcoin today would achieve for you in 6.5 years time? Especially considering there will have been 2 halvenings by then? 

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3 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

When I initially invested I thought that I was late to the party but I took that risk on the chin. Obviously it is clear now that I was incorrect in my assumption. Why do you believe that it’s too late now? What return do you think that a £5k of investment into Bitcoin today would achieve for you in 6.5 years time? Especially considering there will have been 2 halvenings by then? 

Most people buy bitcoin the second or third time they hear about it pumping so nearly everyone has an "if only I'd bought when I first heard about it" story.

5 years from now people will be saying "I wish I had bought when it was only 10k".

Edited by goldbug9999

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First heard about it around £10 a coin, bought in betweeen £15 and £30 a coin. Felt like I missed the boat but wanted to be diversified and have some limited exposure for prudence, and just being sensible.

 £9,600 a coin now.

Diversification rules. 

i don’t count alt coins as being diversified as they have zero use case, they are worthless. 

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18 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

When I initially invested I thought that I was late to the party but I took that risk on the chin. Obviously it is clear now that I was incorrect in my assumption. Why do you believe that it’s too late now? What return do you think that a £5k of investment into Bitcoin today would achieve for you in 6.5 years time? Especially considering there will have been 2 halvenings by then? 

nothing 

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20 hours ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

When I initially invested I thought that I was late to the party but I took that risk on the chin. Obviously it is clear now that I was incorrect in my assumption. Why do you believe that it’s too late now? What return do you think that a £5k of investment into Bitcoin today would achieve for you in 6.5 years time? Especially considering there will have been 2 halvenings by then? 

Autumn 2013 for me. Got interested in mining and bought a AMD GTX 7950 @ £300 just for mining Bitcoin. Mined Bitcoin in November then switched to Litecoin. Quadrupled the operation in 2014, retired it it 2015, sold the GFX and parked the Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Dogecoin. As long as I don’t sell early and only sell 1/2 should be set for life now.

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On 27/06/2019 at 23:25, markyh said:

Jesus Christ you said this exact thing about a month ago, and by the weekend the shooting star had turned into a bull candle again, this is crypto knobhead, 24/7, it don't sleep, it don't rest or break and the week lasts 7 days, 3 more to go. Come back Monday morning and then tell what the weekly candle closed as. Could be worse, could be better. Hopefully this is a 30-40% pullback , as normal, then we consolidate, then we move up again and retest $13800.

That's almost a $3,000 pin bar. Nothing compared to the tiddler from a few weeks ago. This kind of candle is what signals the end of a bull market. This is not going to be a consolidation before moving higher. 

This dead cat went way higher than I imagined it would. Just think of all the idiots who piled in who have no idea about market cycles.

The kind of market cycle that takes silver in 1980 from $49 down to $2 over a 20 year prolonged bear. 

Edited by narco

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2 hours ago, narco said:

That's almost a $3,000 pin bar. Nothing compared to the tiddler from a few weeks ago. This kind of candle is what signals the end of a bull market. This is not going to be a consolidation before moving higher. 

This dead cat went way higher than I imagined it would. Just think of all the idiots who piled in who have no idea about market cycles.

The kind of market cycle that takes silver in 1980 from $49 down to $2 over a 20 year prolonged bear. 

Well I say it had to pull back far to parabolic, so it will pull back to $9500 to $8250 area, consolidate, the back up to retest $13800. Which will then break. No idea of timing could be a few months but May all happen in July if NYSE Bakkt does launch on the 22nd as planned.

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1 hour ago, scottbeard said:

Behind a paywall so can't read it.  Any key points you can share...?

Ahh sorry, is this link any better?

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/07/01/1561973477000/Wha-Tether-could-be-going-on-with-the-bitcoin-price--/

If not one of the main sources of opinion is here: 

https://medium.com/@cryptomarketrisk/bitcoin-welcome-to-bitfinexs-second-tether-bubble-29e69126257e

Seems to be saying that this latest rise in bitcoin price is linked to the supply of tether, i.e. a contrived bubble.  I don't think it is a comment on the long term potential of bitcoin, however shows there is a lot of manipulation going on allowing people to make money. I've always wondered if the whole HODL meme is a manipulation too, stopping mass profit taking that would sink the price, allowing the manipulators to take out as much value as possible?

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35 minutes ago, Drat said:

Ahh sorry, is this link any better?

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/07/01/1561973477000/Wha-Tether-could-be-going-on-with-the-bitcoin-price--/

If not one of the main sources of opinion is here: 

https://medium.com/@cryptomarketrisk/bitcoin-welcome-to-bitfinexs-second-tether-bubble-29e69126257e

Seems to be saying that this latest rise in bitcoin price is linked to the supply of tether, i.e. a contrived bubble.  I don't think it is a comment on the long term potential of bitcoin, however shows there is a lot of manipulation going on allowing people to make money. I've always wondered if the whole HODL meme is a manipulation too, stopping mass profit taking that would sink the price, allowing the manipulators to take out as much value as possible?

Unfortunately the second FT link is also behind a paywall.  I can't understand the other link, but that's because it's too complex for my brain and not your fault.

The origin of HODL was December 2013 when after a fall in the BTC price someone posted here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0:

Quote

 

I AM HODLING...You only sell in a bear market if you are a good day trader or an illusioned noob.  The people inbetween hold.  In a zero-sum game such as this, traders can only take your money if you sell.

 

In other words HODL was pretty much someone saying "don't sell at the bottom of a bear market" which somehow has been picked up to become almost a religious fervor to NEVER sell.  Which I agree is a little odd.  However, with the price in December 2013 being $600 per BTC it seems HODLing has done pretty well for that poster.

To be honest, HODL to me is just a twist on the usual advice that if you are investing for the LONG TERM (retirement etc) you shouldn't try to be a day trader and time market tops and bottoms.  Just invest in what you consider to be a good long term investment and hold it for the long term.  That could apply to shares too, not just BTC.

To me, the wisdom in HODL (if there is any) isn't "don't cash out your gainz because even madder gainz are coming" it's "don't treat long term investments like day trades".

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2 hours ago, scottbeard said:

In other words HODL was pretty much someone saying "don't sell at the bottom of a bear market" which somehow has been picked up to become almost a religious fervor to NEVER sell. 

Never selling can be a good strategy for income producing assets, like blue chip equities. You can aim to retire and support yourself using only the dividend income.

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2 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Unfortunately the second FT link is also behind a paywall.  I can't understand the other link, but that's because it's too complex for my brain and not your fault.

If you enter the second - alphaville - link you get asked to register. But if you google "Wha-Tether could be going on with the bitcoin price?" it should give you a link that works.

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Halving is coming wouldn’t be surprised if it fell back quite a bit until the halving run-up.

think this recent bubble was started just by those few people trying to buy before the halving run up, which just in itself triggered a bubble.

thankfully the halving is not that far away less than 12 months away. 6 or 7 years in Bitcoin now, time moves quick enough.

next one will be pretty massive, once the all time high is smashed through it could still go 300-400% higher 

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2 hours ago, Kosmin said:

Never selling can be a good strategy for income producing assets, like blue chip equities. You can aim to retire and support yourself using only the dividend income.

Assets that provide an income are actually classed as your wealth. Most other things are savings. Back in 5%+ interest times large amounts of cash was also wealth, now not really as the return is so low it doesn’t cover inflation erosion. Unless you rent them out your house is not a wealth asset as you have to sell it to get the income.  Bitcoin is with Gold and houses in that regard. 

A true wealth asset provides some form of income without you having to sell the asset. I guess a mortgage free OO house could be a wealth asset providing regular income  via imputed rent savings?

I suppose my SIPP is my only wealth as 75% of it is dividend baring stocks or funds, although at present all are set to reinvest and compound. 

 

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Problem with inflation figures is they don’t include things like the cost of buying a comparable house year in year out.

they don’t include the biggest wealth store we have in the U.K. 

so inflation figures are pretty worthless. 

The government plays a blinder by not including house prices, as it lets you win the race to the bottom with wages. and by having the main voting block as home owners (retired oldies with nothing to do with their time but to vote) your set to continue the system. Until the young overthrow that system with bitcoin over the next 30 years.

houses will march upwards and so will bitcoin as they are restricted true value stores. at least bitcoin doesn’t have the toxic crushing effect on the young. 

imagine a world where we still have fiat but bitcoin is the wealth store instead of houses? Houses with be affordable, and we could build more will less opposition. the early adopters will we mega rich but plenty will also die with their keys. 

the average young person could buy as little as they want, as populations grows it becomes worth more, and through human error and deaths bitcoins will be lost of that period. making the remaining bitcoin worth more. 

the key to bitcoin as a wealth store is that you do not have to mortgage your life away to corrupt banks to buy an artificially inflated house. you can save outside the corrupt fiat system and win the gain of value of bitcoin and the double whammy of the constant devaluation of fiat. 

To better explain that. imagine every penny you saved for a house deposit went up at the same ratio as the house you were looking to buy. Your savings would keep up with house price increases. you would not be fighting a constant losing battle 

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On 02/07/2019 at 09:37, Drat said:

Ahh sorry, is this link any better?

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/07/01/1561973477000/Wha-Tether-could-be-going-on-with-the-bitcoin-price--/

If not one of the main sources of opinion is here: 

https://medium.com/@cryptomarketrisk/bitcoin-welcome-to-bitfinexs-second-tether-bubble-29e69126257e

Seems to be saying that this latest rise in bitcoin price is linked to the supply of tether, i.e. a contrived bubble.  I don't think it is a comment on the long term potential of bitcoin, however shows there is a lot of manipulation going on allowing people to make money. I've always wondered if the whole HODL meme is a manipulation too, stopping mass profit taking that would sink the price, allowing the manipulators to take out as much value as possible?

Kraken CEO has gone on record recently to say the Tether manipulation is FUD and they (who use USD) have seen a huge influx of real FIAT USD deposits to buy Bitcoin, as have other exchanges, but these dont show up on crypto charts as their is no way to track FIAT increases easily as their is with Tether USD increases. Basically  exchanges that use tether have had big USD FIAT influxes too, but they have to be converted into tether, with new tether printed, to then buy Bitcoin.

So Tether FUD , check, next China bans Bitcoin FUD , watch this space. 

 

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On 01/07/2019 at 22:47, markyh said:

Well I say it had to pull back far to parabolic, so it will pull back to $9500 to $8250 area, consolidate, the back up to retest $13800. Which will then break. No idea of timing could be a few months but May all happen in July if NYSE Bakkt does launch on the 22nd as planned.

$9500 almost reached for the 30% retrace, so now either that is it or it will drift lower, break down to the $8250 level for the 40% retrace. 40% is the normal historical max retrace for a Bitcoin bull market. 

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On 02/07/2019 at 15:02, markyh said:

Assets that provide an income are actually classed as your wealth. Most other things are savings.

I was thinking the same - I view bitcoin as a savings vehicle which is superior to fiat in a variety of ways. So I'm going to keep my bitcoin until I want to spend some of my savings.

Edited by goldbug9999

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12 hours ago, wsn03 said:

He said "would" acheive....not "should" 😅

well 5k invested  could either be worth something or nothing.  

say bitcoin is worth 10x more than it is now i come out with 50k  

That is not life changing money and its not going to happen anyway so whats the point now. the money has already been made.  The winners cashed out already.

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31 minutes ago, longgone said:

well 5k invested  could either be worth something or nothing.  

say bitcoin is worth 10x more than it is now i come out with 50k  

That is not life changing money and its not going to happen anyway so whats the point now. the money has already been made.  The winners cashed out already.

I am leaning towards this viewpoint. I have money invested but nothing that I couldn't shrug off if it went to zero. 

In my view BTC has not lived up to its original promise and people should be asking where the money is going to come from for the next 10x. There is better tech out there but in a now very crowded market place. For those with life changing amounts tied up I would tread carefully.

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2 hours ago, longgone said:

 

That is not life changing money and its not going to happen anyway so whats the point now. the money has already been made.  The winners cashed out already.

Many, many , many people on here and elsewhere said the same thing in 2014 when we reached $1000. They were wrong. 

For me it’s easy, just wait until 2025 for two more 4 year cycles to complete, during which time either nothing has changed much past the 2017 ath and a £2k 2014 investment has given a 50x ish return and a nice savings pot in 11 years, or 50% sold out, mortgage free, retired in mid fifties and a fiat multi millionaire. 

Either way we are never seeing $1k or three figure btc again, and if we clear $20k doubt we will ever see four figure btc again either. 

BTC is getting squeezed again and I think the breakout will be to the downside, as we need a bigger pull back to $8k before slowly moving back to retest $14k by years end. A breakout higher while nice could bring a retest and break of $14k before summers end and a fomo retest of $20k before the end of 2019 which is too soon. I don’t want to see $20k broken until a month either side of the halving in 10 months time mid 2020, preferably after the event. 

We can watch how Litecoin reacts after its halving in the near future as a guide to what Bitcoin might do. 

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all seems too early considering when the halving is. 

But I also feel it was oversold from the last bubble should of settled around $6,500ish (which is what I predicted the new higher low would be) but when down to the 3’s, perhaps that’s what’s making the current rise seem completely out of whack, as we shouldnt of seen the 3’s, but plenty who FOMOd then panic sold (fair weather bitcoin friends) but it’s actually only slightly out of whack.

so given that it’s true value was around $6,500ish, and expecting it to rise given we are less than a year from the halving it should probably be closer to $8kish slowly climbing (hacksawing up and down until the mother bubbles for this cycle at least over maybe $100k close to the having in 11ish months time)

It’s pretty simple really, $6,500 was the true ‘value low’ and $3ish was a screaming buy, and fair play to those who bought it! once you have that in mind and you now draw a bubble forming over the next 11months leading to the halving, then right now it might be over-bought, and due a pull-back, but it will power through the current price and the ATH in those 11 months. 

also it’s becoming clear that the alts are just rubbish, none have recovered, they are only good for those who miss the bitcoin boat and who can get in and out in the next bubble in a matter of days, and they won’t do anything until say 9 months time, the bitcoin boat has not sailed yet, engines not even up to temp yet. Alts are just pump and dumps at best. most are just turds.

Avoid the shit-coins. don’t get badly burnt like many on here. They don’t have a purpose, no user base, no hash power, no demand for a digital fiat, and only room for one digital store of value which is bitcoin, which is gold 2.0

even the rest of the world are waking up to bitcoin, Facebook and all. anything that the banks or companies do, or even central banks now only turbo charge bitcoin. 

Edited by jiltedjen

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  • 239 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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