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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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On 22/06/2019 at 01:50, dannyf said:

Periodic update. Posted at roughly $7400. Currently around $10180 (+37.6%).

This is quite some short squeeze. Sticking with this prediction?

Absolutely sticking with it. This is a suckers rally that is going to destroy anyone who is FOMO'ing in at these prices. 

Those buying this bubble at $10k plus are going to be crushed once it drops below $1,300 over the next couple of years.

Feel free to keep posting these updates and we'll see over the next 12 - 18 months.

Edited by narco

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3 hours ago, Denseharry said:

I was thinking of having a punt then I read this

The Big Fix: How traders use dark web to ramp up digital currencies

This was rife during the last boom. You need to pick something that has a thin market, ideally a smaller cap coin listed only on a small number of exchanges then pimp it everywhere as "the next bitcoin". Havn't seen any significant evidence of it happening much these days. Anyway this sort of activity doesn't make much odds in the grand scheme of things. Bitcoin is on its way to $1 trillion cap so all this short term activity is small beer.

Edited by goldbug9999

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6 hours ago, narco said:

Absolutely sticking with it. This is a suckers rally that is going to destroy anyone who is FOMO'ing in at these prices. 

Those buying this bubble at $10k plus are going to be crushed once it drops below $1,300 over the next couple of years.

Feel free to keep posting these updates and we'll see over the next 12 - 18 months.

Wow you really think it will now fall to $1300 in 2 years which will be mid 2021, less than six months from the 4 year cycle peak? Bitcoin will be six figures by then! Maybe 2022, 23 you might be lucky to see it drop back to $30k as a new cycle bear market bottom. 

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7 hours ago, narco said:

Absolutely sticking with it. This is a suckers rally that is going to destroy anyone who is FOMO'ing in at these prices. 

Those buying this bubble at $10k plus are going to be crushed once it drops below $1,300 over the next couple of years.

Feel free to keep posting these updates and we'll see over the next 12 - 18 months.

I like your conviction :) I can’t see it but anything is possible

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On 15/06/2019 at 10:32, markyh said:

If I had sold any time after the 3rd week of January 2018 and been to scared to buy back I would be sick as a dog by now. Maybe i'm weird but fear of missing out of future higher gainz is worse for me than fear of losing past gainz. 

Bitcoin isn't a store of value or hard money, it's a market where people buy and sell FOMO.

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3 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Bitcoin isn't a store of value or hard money, it's a market where people buy and sell FOMO.

Not me, bought in 2013/14 and hold, added to the position at the lows 2018. 

Its far to early to realises gains. It will go to $200k by 2021 and in the $ millions by 2025.

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could hit £30-£40k in this bubble, its becoming self fuelling now.

Not sure what will happen with the halving now, it seems to be rushing ahead. 

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1 hour ago, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

But the long term price trend keeps going up, why?

At the surface level I guess the price signal means the amount of FOMO is increasing, so the price of FOMO insurance (a.k.a. cryptocurrency) is also increasing.

As to why the amount of FOMO is increasing, it's not too hard to come up with pop psychology explanations but these aren't really testable so who knows whether they are true e.g. 40 years of wage suppression is making people desperate to find another way to obtain economic security since plan A (work hard, be frugal) is clearly not working for most people.

Edited by Dorkins

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it would be fun to see it go to 500k fomo`s jump in then lose the lot.  Hardcore holders will never sell so price is irrelevant anyway. 

gold v2 prevails.😄

18 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

40 years of wage suppression is making people desperate to find another way to obtain economic security since plan A (work hard, be frugal) is clearly not working for most people.

working hard does not equal more money most of the time. 

its work hard in making money and saving most of it for the downturn time even better if you can get a good return.  

i like crypto but far too late in the game for me to join the party saying that if i won the million quid P bonds i would maybe invest 50k in BTC at a low.  say under a grand each. 

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On 22/06/2019 at 15:18, markyh said:

Just cant resist this, @ 8th of Feb BTC was $3425 to $3800 for the day, pretty close to the bottom and a great entry if you had the balls and believed. I think either @wsn03 mate got eaten by the Sharks or I imaging wsn03 sitting by his mobile checking for "the nod" ever 5 mins and saying over and over, "any moment now will be a pullback and I will get the Nod to "buy in". 

Newsflash, the rebound happened @ $3200, only missed out on 250% gainz waiting for "The Nod".

Had you listened to us you could be cashing out now a happy camper. Oh well.  

I've been far too busy in my own future - industry. We're dealing with something too big to contemplate, so only been on this forum a couple of times in the last few weeks.

I expect Bitcoin to yo yo around for the next few months, probably ending up back near 2k, but we shall see. Either way it doesn't have much consequence for me, though I will buy-in at the next big crash if (when) that comes along at some point.

 

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9 hours ago, Dorkins said:

Bitcoin isn't a store of value or hard money, it's a market where people buy and sell FOMO.

This ... which is why I'd only ever gamble in it for fun

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7 hours ago, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

Yeah im wondering if there will be something unexpected here. 

Bitcoin will always do the unexpected in the short term, that's why the most successful investment strategies are the ones that make the least assumptions about short term movements.

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23 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Bitcoin will always do the unexpected in the short term, that's why the most successful investment strategies are the ones that make the least assumptions about short term movements.

Ok so with longer term... In 2013 pre halving we got a double bubble type move (mtgox probably influencing this not being a single bubble price move).  In 2016/17 a fair few expected the same double bubble and i guess front running that expectation just made 1 single smoother price move? (no double bubble)

So what does the front running the 2016/17 smoother price move create in this bull cycle? right now it seems to be creating an, earlier than expected price move. 

Question is, do we get an even smoother consistent price move from now until end of the bull cycle or something else?

 

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Not sure. everyone was front running everyone else who wanted to get in before the halving. 

and that was enough to send the price rocketing. people may not sell knowing there is a halving on the horizon. 

and post halving bitcoin will be being created at a lower rate than fiat anyway. 

going to take some very large moves up and down to find it’s new higher low. 

post halving we could see some long drawn out price falls unless we see some other big news in the space. but given the demand for exposure that many conventional investors will have I could see bitcoin becoming much more mainstream as a value store. 

gold is signalling that it’s expected we will get some heavy forced money printing inflation in the next 2 years. 

 

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Google trends is not showing the interest we had last time, yet the price is rising. 

those buying now are already aware of bitcoin.

we have not reached the mania stage where lots of newbies pile in, and that’s when it climbs a wall. 

at the moment we have moved from oversold to probably about right price wise. 

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15 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

at the moment we have moved from oversold to probably about right price wise. 

There is no such thing with bitcoin. It has no fundamental value. With a property, you could determine current value by examining costs (interest rates, expenses) vs future values of rents and decide on a reasonable price to pay.

With a company, you can do roughly similar.

Not so with bitcoin. It is simply speculative demand.

So saying it was oversold is, not to be nasty, absolute bunkum. The price is simply the price. It could be $0 as well as $200000 and either would make as much sense as the other within a day.

I only own it in the hope that other people will keep speculating the price up. We'll never actually use it for the intended purpose, an electronic cash.

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