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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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5 minutes ago, dannyf said:

“Hand over all their wealth”. No. It’s money.   Whatever the current rate of £:btc, you’ll be exchanging like for like value. The comparison to houses being way overpriced and btl is completely wrong. As long as the value is stable then it functions as money and anyone can acquire it and use it regardless of the precise current exchange rate.

This is different to houses where we all believe they’re in a bubble and you must exchange more of your labour and savings to have a smaller place to LIVE. And where we expect good value to return. The only possible comparison is if btc is in a bubble and could drop, which is admittedly a risk shorter term and has happened multiple times. But as adoption and market cap grow, the exchange rate should stabilise as with other highly adopted currencies like £:$

For use as money it doesn’t matter if the exchange rate is $1/btc or $1/satoshi, provided it remains stable or slowly increases

It is never going to be money. You won't have a deflationary currency that the elected government cannot control. People won't hand over that control. For many reasons. One of which is they're not going to decide to use a currency where 99% of it is already in the hands of a few. 

Why are you on this site? How can you be so blind to this? I'm never, ever, ever, going to vote to make bitcoin our currency, because it immediately replaces one set of oligarchs with another.

Edited by dugsbody

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27 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

It is never going to be money. You won't have a deflationary currency that the elected government cannot control. People won't hand over that control. For many reasons. One of which is they're not going to decide to use a currency where 99% of it is already in the hands of a few. 

Why are you on this site? How can you be so blind to this? I'm never, ever, ever, going to vote to make bitcoin our currency, because it immediately replaces one set of oligarchs with another.

I’m on this site because I’m interested in economic topics and discussion, which started with house prices but extended beyond that in the past 14 years.

To me it already is money. Sure government won’t hand over control, but adoption will increase regardless of them.

And some people may get rich from that, but they are few and I don’t know why that makes them oligarchs. It won’t be a quick process and the distribution algorithm and time allow a good distribution

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Bitcoin makes terrible money. No one would spend it. the economy would not work. That’s pretty basic. 

In order to spend it ‘like for like’ then governments would have to be on board and fiat would have to have some kind of seamless link. Which again won’t happen.

Bitcoin is gold 2.0, it’s a value store. You don’t spend gold sovereigns at the counter, you don’t have any kind of link between fiat and gold. 

Money needs to lose value, it always has, that works. you want bad debts to erode away, and it greases the wheels, having soft money allows the NHS to continue etc etc.

Any one with half a brain can see in the U.K. houses are the only true value store. they keep rising and they are supported, mostly through the destruction of fiat value. enough people think it will keep rising so they do, regardless of what us on HPC want. 

we might one day get a house value crash compared to bitcoin but we will never get a house price crash in fiat. 

bitcoin will continue its almost endless climb for hundreds of years, just being gold 2.0. it doesn’t have to be money to be successful. 

we don’t need better fiat, we were never lacking ‘good money’ we were screaming out for a value store which was not destroying society like our current value store housing. and a value store which is world-wide. 

as the worlds wealth improves so will bitcoin, making gold 2.0 inclusive, if you live in a backwards country you can still access it. If you bank account is emptied by your corrupt gov, you can still access it. 

If you buy a house, and then lose it as interest rates rocket etc, you still have it. 

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51 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

bitcoin will continue its almost endless climb for hundreds of years, just being gold 2.0. it doesn’t have to be money to be successful. 

Hang on those, "almost endless climb" relative to what?  Relative to fiat money perhaps as that is inflated away all the time.  But Gold 1.0 hasn't had an "almost endless climb for hundreds of years" in value - in fact that's the point of it being a store of value.  As is often said, a gold coin bought you a new suit in Roman times and still does today - in other words, in value terms, it's been flat for 2,000 years?

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9 hours ago, dannyf said:

“Hand over all their wealth”. No. It’s money.

Sigh. What do you think the HODL strategy is based on? There is a fundamental contradiction between your statement above and HODL. You're asking people to buy in to a currency that a few people have a large stash of, at which point those stashes become a huge claim on other people's labour. That's why people like markyh talk about hiring the children of non-believers as servants.

Bad enough that people who didn't drink the koolaid get screwed over, but this will perpetuate for generations. A new aristocracy - no thanks.

I would add that this is a problem for BC, and similar - it's not a fundamental problem for crypto. It can be resolved by having a currency that can grow or shrink in order to maintain a static value per coin. How - and who controls - that inflation/deflation of supply is another matter...

Edited by tomandlu
clarification

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9 hours ago, dugsbody said:

 I'm never, ever, ever, going to vote to make bitcoin our currency, because it immediately replaces one set of oligarchs with another.

Even if that were true or possible, i'd rather tech nerds get more power vs the current arsewipes.

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2 minutes ago, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

Even if that were true or possible, i'd rather tech nerds get more power vs the current arsewipes.

Says a tech nerd with a stash of coins?

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On 12/06/2019 at 10:10, tomandlu said:

To convince, you'd have to address the issues that I raised. They are legitimate, practical, objections to BC. A deflationary currency is a terrible idea, for all the reasons that its proponents seem to think make it desirable.

A deflationary currency is a terrible idea for the state, banks, and asset owners but a great idea for wage earners and savers.

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These parallels of bitcoin with BTL landlords are completely false: a landlord owning a house increases the competition for housing and therefore the cost of housing i.e. increases the number of hours labour that must be traded for a house. A holder of a deflationary currency does indeed push up the value of that currency yet the number of hours labour to buy a house remains constant.

Its not deflationary money that flawed, its what people have to do when no such thing exists that is flawed: they have to store ever more value in fixed utility assets like housing, this is economically destructive in a way that storing value in a deflationary currency is not.

 

 

Edited by goldbug9999

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7 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Hang on those, "almost endless climb" relative to what?  Relative to fiat money perhaps as that is inflated away all the time.  But Gold 1.0 hasn't had an "almost endless climb for hundreds of years" in value - in fact that's the point of it being a store of value.  As is often said, a gold coin bought you a new suit in Roman times and still does today - in other words, in value terms, it's been flat for 2,000 years?

gold price has been suppressed via paper contracts, there is more paper gold than real gold.

Given the state of absolute free-for-all fiat money has been especially around the 2007 period and onwards, gold should of gone to the moon.

one example of some traders who actually got caught, (not the under-table government led cobra committee style 2007 panic manipulation)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-settlement-gold-idUSKBN13R2N1

There is no audit of gold supplies, there are multiple claims on each bar in central banks stores.

with gold you don't usually trade the actual gold anymore, as its not practicable. With bitcoin you can easily trade the actual coins without much resistance.  Gold is old technology which has been overtaken by computers. 

If you think about gold, and it 'being flat for 2000' years in purchasing power, yet the population has ballooned many times since the roman times, its hugely undervalued, even when you factor in the efficiencies of the modern world, imagine if houses were not value stores, or land, or even art, and gold was the main value store again, for an average street thats already say 1mil straight into gold, one street, in one country, let alone the rest of the world.

but gold does not act like gold as there is no real mechanism for finding its real worth anymore.

Bitcoin is a better gold.

I do hold gold as gold is one of the only ways to attack bitcoin if your a central banker, if you let gold find its true value (many many times higher) then there is no point in bitcoin, you could let gold fly for a few years, killing bitcoin, and then suppress gold right down again. better the devil you can control and all that. 
 

none of us have lived in, or can remember a world where there is a true value store anymore, the closest thing we have is houses, which would be fine if the price of entry was open to everyone, and it didn't cause such drastic devastation to our lives. 

regardless of making some of the small number of original holders hugely rich, imagine where you could enter an asset class at X and know for sure your savings are safe, regardless of what your government does to you, and that when your old you can cash out at X plus Y. There would be no need to speculate on houses, or be a massive Nimby etc. It would always take some mega winners to take on the risk to support bitcoin to make it the saviour that it will be. so what they get rewarded for it? 

imagine the tens of millions who have lost their life savings, and are now broke without any time to get back to where they are. they only get a few years on the world like the rest of us, and now they are screwed over. and its not their fault. imagine a world where they could of been safe in bitcoin? for these people it would of saved their lives. 

Central banks would lose some power, and it would prevent massive distortions in the economy. No longer would the old be bailed out from recklessly borrowing on massive houses, the world would become more fair again.

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3 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

A deflationary currency is a terrible idea for the state, banks, and asset owners but a great idea for wage earners and savers.

Yes - unending wealth for all! What could possibly go wrong?

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3 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

These parallels of bitcoin with BTL landlords are completely false: a landlord owning a house increases the competition for housing and therefore the cost of housing i.e. increases the number of hours labour that must be traded for a house. A holder of a deflationary currency does indeed push up the value of that currency yet the number of hours labour to buy a house remains constant.

Exactly the same? No. But a holder of a deflationary currency is hoping to make a claim on the productivity of others without producing anything of value. If a house costs the same in terms of hours of labour, a HODLer can hoover them up - he's got the dosh. In the end, you're still arguing for a massive unearned transfer of wealth.

Whatever - as I've said, since the whole strategy of HODL is based on the above, I'm mostly just perplexed that HODLers deny it (in fairness, I don't think markyh does).

TTFN

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11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

A deflationary currency is a terrible idea for the state, banks, and asset owners but a great idea for wage earners and savers.

Except when everyone waits for the thing you are paid to do to become cheaper until they buy it. So you might need to wait to get paid and when you do get paid, you get paid less.

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17 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

Bitcoin makes terrible money. No one would spend it. the economy would not work. That’s pretty basic. 

I don't agree.  Right now, whilst people allocate only a small part of their wealth to bitcoin as its new, risky, its future is uncertain, then of course you will spend your fiat and hold your allocation to bitcoin.  But if it were to gain traction, properly in the world economy, and stabilised without the bubbles, then you would prefer to be paid in bitcoin, and you would spend it, because it would be your money.  Why would you keep fiat in that scenario?

14 hours ago, tomandlu said:

Sigh. What do you think the HODL strategy is based on? There is a fundamental contradiction between your statement above and HODL. You're asking people to buy in to a currency that a few people have a large stash of, at which point those stashes become a huge claim on other people's labour. That's why people like markyh talk about hiring the children of non-believers as servants.

Bad enough that people who didn't drink the koolaid get screwed over, but this will perpetuate for generations. A new aristocracy - no thanks.

I would add that this is a problem for BC, and similar - it's not a fundamental problem for crypto. It can be resolved by having a currency that can grow or shrink in order to maintain a static value per coin. How - and who controls - that inflation/deflation of supply is another matter...

HODL is not mentioned in the white paper, its a stupid Internet meme, born from the fact that adoption and market cap is increasing, and the fact that most people cannot trade. I never once mentioned HODL.  But whilst its understandable that people will hold during the adoption phase as it rises in value, if it were to reach a point of mass adoption then it will not be a strategy at all because people would need to spend it as they move away from fiat.

"How and who controls" - I'm no longer interested in money that some central authority controls.

11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

These parallels of bitcoin with BTL landlords are completely false: a landlord owning a house increases the competition for housing and therefore the cost of housing i.e. increases the number of hours labour that must be traded for a house. A holder of a deflationary currency does indeed push up the value of that currency yet the number of hours labour to buy a house remains constant.

Its not deflationary money that flawed, its what people have to do when no such thing exists that is flawed: they have to store ever more value in fixed utility assets like housing, this is economically destructive in a way that storing value in a deflationary currency is not.

+1 This is what I was trying to say but said much more clearly

45 minutes ago, bobbo said:

Except when everyone waits for the thing you are paid to do to become cheaper until they buy it. So you might need to wait to get paid and when you do get paid, you get paid less.

Yea, like everyone delays buying things right now because they're earning interest in their bank account so they'll be able to buy more tomorrow.  Or like nobody buys computers or smartphones because the next model will be better.  I can't believe this fallacy is so widespread...

By the way, I acknowledge its not a given that bitcoin becomes widespread adopted money.  It might not happen and is still very risky right now. My points are assuming it does make it.

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2 hours ago, dannyf said:

Yea, like everyone delays buying things right now because they're earning interest in their bank account so they'll be able to buy more tomorrow.  Or like nobody buys computers or smartphones because the next model will be better.  I can't believe this fallacy is so widespread...

Very few people get inflation beating bank rates. Look at Japan and what happened when their bubble burst or the US during the Great Depression, low growth, lower wages, that’s what you should be expecting from a deflationary currency, not a hodlers utopia.

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2 hours ago, bobbo said:

Very few people get inflation beating bank rates. Look at Japan and what happened when their bubble burst or the US during the Great Depression, low growth, lower wages, that’s what you should be expecting from a deflationary currency, not a hodlers utopia.

A deflation or depression in the whole economy where people are losing their jobs and businesses are going bankrupt is very different from your savings not losing or appreciating in value.

Do you think if bank saving rates were 2% higher than inflation that everyone would suddenly stop spending? What are you going to stop spending on? Food? A car? Luxuries? Forever?

I can’t believe the con they’ve got away with convincing people that we need inflationary currency. That they create when it suits them and funnels wealth to them. One question for the people against a fixed supply (what you call deflationary) money. Is it worse than QE to you?

Edited by dannyf

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4 hours ago, dannyf said:

 

I can’t believe the con they’ve got away with convincing people that we need inflationary currency. That they create when it suits them and funnels wealth to them. One question for the people against a fixed supply (what you call deflationary) money. Is it worse than QE to you?

I don’t like QE as it bailed the banks out and prevented a lot of harsh justice for the boomers. 

it went too far at the expense of the young.

capatalism requires some destruction to seed new roots, a few harsh years for the next phase of growth. that crash should of been cheap houses for those sensible of us. Capitalism should be an easy game for anyone with half a brain, but the feckless were bailed out by buy to let corrupt politicians. 

but if we had a deflationary currency sadly all the positives (clearing out the dead zombie companies for fresh companies) gets washed away, without inflationary currency we could not fund the NHS, or pay our way in the world, the U.K. would no longer function and strangely we would all be poorer. 

we are taxed heavily in the U.K. and although it’s hard to actually quantify in absolute numbers, when you factor in how much wealth/value is also stolen from you on top of the taxes, at a guess the actual tax rate of an individual would be something mental like 80%, yeah that is bad. But no-one starves. we do have a lot of positives in this country, of course we pay a lot for it but great. 

if we had very hard money, then the NHS would only do the very basics, so would the police, fire, etc etc, education would only be for the rich, the poor would starve and riot and loot. We couldn’t afford a minimum wage, work-houses etc. Sounds drastic but if you can’t magic money up (steal from everyone’s wallet without being obvious) we could not live in the world that we do. 

how does bitcoin fit in to this? Well on the very basic terms houses stop being stores of value. and governments can’t on a whim steal your savings/pension just like that. bitcoin puts breaks on complete destruction of your savings, and allows the young to get a foothold in the world. 

no-one would ever agree to 80% tax rate, but that’s pretty much what we have. and it’s what’s required. 

a I just don’t like corrupt governments bailing themselves out, when it was not the moral thing to do. Throwing the young under the bus. 

Far too many feckless morons should of lost it all, and instead have just bought another white land rover to ponce around in 

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On 14/06/2019 at 09:40, tomandlu said:

 You're asking people to buy in to a currency that a few people have a large stash of, at which point those stashes become a huge claim on other people's labour. That's why people like markyh talk about hiring the children of non-believers as servants.

 

Good memory! creating jobs for no-coiners when they had fair warning years in advance is a kind thing.  I still don't get why anyone with a brain doesn't try to buy at least from 1 to 100th a Bitcoin now, the Crypto ETN I was mocked for add to my Pension last year in the bear market at now in the top 5 of % growth in my SIPP, which has been running since 2010.

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5 hours ago, dannyf said:

Do you think if bank saving rates were 2% higher than inflation that everyone would suddenly stop spending? What are you going to stop spending on? Food? A car? Luxuries? Forever?

100% (maybe not 2% but not that much significantly higher) as this would be matched by increased borrowing costs. How many people buy new cars without some form of finance? If it’s deflationary then new car sales would drop off the cliff, that could be a forever loss all the jobs associated with that from manufacturing to marketing would disappear.

In a country that imports its food, again a potential disaster. What if people literally can’t afford to eat, it happens occasionally.

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17 hours ago, tomandlu said:

Exactly the same? No. But a holder of a deflationary currency is hoping to make a claim on the productivity of others without producing anything of value. If a house costs the same in terms of hours of labour, a HODLer can hoover them up - he's got the dosh. In the end, you're still arguing for a massive unearned transfer of wealth.

Whatever - as I've said, since the whole strategy of HODL is based on the above, I'm mostly just perplexed that HODLers deny it (in fairness, I don't think markyh does).

TTFN

To back you up a bit less than 2% of all Bitcoin in existence is trading in the circulating supply for price discovery, Whales and institutions seem to trade OTC to not affect the  spot price. 

Which means at most times 98% of BTC is being "HODLED". 

If I had sold any time after the 3rd week of January 2018 and been to scared to buy back I would be sick as a dog by now. Maybe i'm weird but fear of missing out of future higher gainz is worse for me than fear of losing past gainz. 

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20 minutes ago, bobbo said:

 How many people buy new cars without some form of finance? 

I

In a few years, plenty, I have a Tesla model 3 performance pencilled in for 2021/22 , should be around 0.4btc or less by then. 

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  • 241 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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