Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
NatterJackToad

The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

Recommended Posts

15 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

I think narco is still calling for 1000 bucks and has opened a short last month. Are you sure ? :)

Lol. A leveraged short with a stop loss at $21100!! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, longgone said:

wow big drop i may actually have a go soon.  <2.5k

Good luck but this is normal in a bull run 30-40% drops over 1-4 weeks after a 100%+ rise happen a lot, look at 2017, had at least 5 of them. Its only if it lasts more than 4 weeks and over 40% you may have a chance of your wish. Lets check back end of the month because the crash calls from pull backs in May proved to all be wrong, it ended the month way, way up. 60%.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 01/06/2019 at 23:52, dannyf said:

Periodic update. Posted at roughly $7400. Currently around $8580 (+15.9%)

You can keep pumping this turd much as you like. It's 's going to spend many years finding a bottom just as every single other bubble in history.

You'll know when Bitcoin hit rock bottom when there's been zero activity in this thread for months.

That price will be at least $1,200 and potentially a capitulation toward $300.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 19/05/2019 at 11:27, markyh said:

I like this fact, 

There is only 0.00272 BTC for every human on Earth. If you HODL 0.28 BTC, that puts you in the 1%. Hodling 1 BTC means you own 357 times as much as the there is for the average person. 

So if you Hodl 8 or more, you are on the 1% of the 1%.  Comforting.

Unfortunately, that's also the reason it won't work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, tomandlu said:

Unfortunately, that's also the reason it won't work.

Can you clarify? It is completely divisible, unlike currencies that usually only split the primary unit to 2 decimal places like pence/cents.

So you’re saying it can’t work because of where you choose to put the decimal place?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dannyf said:

Can you clarify? It is completely divisible, unlike currencies that usually only split the primary unit to 2 decimal places like pence/cents.

So you’re saying it can’t work because of where you choose to put the decimal place?

Indeed, if working in tiny fractions of BTC does people's heads in then work in Satoshis instead, where there are a more digestable 2,720 per person in existence.

I can't ever see a day when BTC is used for the majority of financial transactions on Earth either, but the divisibility of it certainly isn't the issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 07/06/2019 at 14:27, dannyf said:

Can you clarify? It is completely divisible, unlike currencies that usually only split the primary unit to 2 decimal places like pence/cents.

So you’re saying it can’t work because of where you choose to put the decimal place?

There are practical issues (apart from anything else, like Ming vases, the number of usable BC will head towards zero), but I can't see people willingly pauperising themselves to make early adopters exceedingly, obscenely rich. The claim that HODLers are expecting to make on other people's labour is frankly absurd.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, tomandlu said:

There are practical issues (apart from anything else, like Ming vases, the number of usable BC will head towards zero), but I can't see people willingly pauperising themselves to make early adopters exceedingly, obscenely rich. The claim that HODLers are expecting to make on other people's labour is frankly absurd.

I agree with absolutely all of that - there is no long term future in Bitcoin.

However, I've still had a little punt on it because it feels like (i) with a small stake there's not a lot to lose and (ii) there may be a quick buck to make in the short term (as the rise from $4k to $8k over the last couple of months shows).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

I agree with absolutely all of that - there is no long term future in Bitcoin.

However, I've still had a little punt on it because it feels like (i) with a small stake there's not a lot to lose and (ii) there may be a quick buck to make in the short term (as the rise from $4k to $8k over the last couple of months shows).

Fair enough. I'm not sure I'd believe anyone who says they don't regret not taking a punt on a few coins a few years back. I suppose it might have some sort of future as a short-term transactional medium, but its inbuilt double-deflationary nature is a death sentence imho. Any money that's designed to be deflationary has a terrible and fundamental design flaw. Making money a guaranteed asset class is insane.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, tomandlu said:

Fair enough. I'm not sure I'd believe anyone who says they don't regret not taking a punt on a few coins a few years back. I suppose it might have some sort of future as a short-term transactional medium, but its inbuilt double-deflationary nature is a death sentence imho. Any money that's designed to be deflationary has a terrible and fundamental design flaw. Making money a guaranteed asset class is insane.

Exactly. And despite what the bitcoin fundamentalists claim, they think this too as their actions reveal. They don't spend bitcoin, they hoard it in the hope of one day cashing out of "money" for more "real money". In the meantime, they spend fiat, like any sensible person holding bitcoin would.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Exactly. And despite what the bitcoin fundamentalists claim, they think this too as their actions reveal. They don't spend bitcoin, they hoard it in the hope of one day cashing out of "money" for more "real money". In the meantime, they spend fiat, like any sensible person holding bitcoin would.

Once the market cap increases and the value stabilises as adoption increases, it will become more feasible to hold your savings in bitcoin instead of fiat, and to get paid in bitcoin (even if priced in fiat). At that point, people can hold less and less fiat. Of course you’ll then spend down your fiat. Good money drives out bad.

This doesn’t seem realistic right now due to the bubble cycles during increasing adoption.

All in my humble opinion. I know I won’t convince anyone who is already negative about bitcoin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, dannyf said:

Once the market cap increases and the value stabilises as adoption increases, it will become more feasible to hold your savings in bitcoin instead of fiat, and to get paid in bitcoin (even if priced in fiat). At that point, people can hold less and less fiat. Of course you’ll then spend down your fiat. Good money drives out bad.

This doesn’t seem realistic right now due to the bubble cycles during increasing adoption.

All in my humble opinion. I know I won’t convince anyone who is already negative about bitcoin

To convince, you'd have to address the issues that I raised. They are legitimate, practical, objections to BC. A deflationary currency is a terrible idea, for all the reasons that its proponents seem to think make it desirable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bitcoin is gold 2.0 and a value store, deflationary currency does not work, and there is no need or demand for a digital fiat coin.

when bitcoin becomes mainstream as the go-to value store, fiat will lose value much faster and aggressively than it currently does, central banks will find they have less room to manoeuvre and they will no longer get away with gold price suppression or props for house prices. 

Houses will stop being the go-to value store. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jiltedjen said:

Bitcoin is gold 2.0 and a value store, deflationary currency does not work, and there is no need or demand for a digital fiat coin.

when bitcoin becomes mainstream as the go-to value store, fiat will lose value much faster and aggressively than it currently does, central banks will find they have less room to manoeuvre and they will no longer get away with gold price suppression or props for house prices. 

Houses will stop being the go-to value store. 

Jilted, your many posts are well thought out and quite well written, but the chance of Bitcoin being a go to place as a store of value is pretty much zero. 

People who are reasonably investment savvy, simply do not look at Bitcoin as ever fulfilling this function. Bitcoin is simply viewed as a massively manipulated plaything, to perhaps put a few grand in and chase higher.

The recent massive pump, using over $350 million of tether type funny money by the big players has not generated any real interest and very little new real money.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Black Rod said:

Jilted, your many posts are well thought out and quite well written, but the chance of Bitcoin being a go to place as a store of value is pretty much zero. 

People who are reasonably investment savvy, simply do not look at Bitcoin as ever fulfilling this function. Bitcoin is simply viewed as a massively manipulated plaything, to perhaps put a few grand in and chase higher.

The recent massive pump, using over $350 million of tether type funny money by the big players has not generated any real interest and very little new real money.

 

 

 

Bitcoin is and always was a pump wealth extraction tool. It may have another run but long term it's dead. 

You will never beat Rothschild's or Rockefeller types never. More than likely they are behind it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

Bitcoin is gold 2.0 and a value store, deflationary currency does not work, and there is no need or demand for a digital fiat coin.

when bitcoin becomes mainstream as the go-to value store, fiat will lose value much faster and aggressively than it currently does, central banks will find they have less room to manoeuvre and they will no longer get away with gold price suppression or props for house prices. 

Houses will stop being the go-to value store. 

Governments will never let you pay taxes in money they don't control.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

4 hours ago, dugsbody said:

Governments will never let you pay taxes in money they don't control.

Hmm, https://www.wsj.com/articles/pay-taxes-with-bitcoin-ohio-says-sure-1543161720

Anyway, I never understood that reasoning. As long as a fiat currency exists you’ll be able to convert your bitcoin to it if necessary, if only to pay taxes

16 hours ago, tomandlu said:

To convince, you'd have to address the issues that I raised. They are legitimate, practical, objections to BC. A deflationary currency is a terrible idea, for all the reasons that its proponents seem to think make it desirable.

I don’t think you actually raised any issue. You said that deflationary currencies won’t work, you said that the number of bitcoins will trend towards zero. But you never actually completed what you were trying to say and say why they won’t work, or why it’s really so bad if some get lost.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, dannyf said:

I don’t think you actually raised any issue. You said that deflationary currencies won’t work, you said that the number of bitcoins will trend towards zero. But you never actually completed what you were trying to say and say why they won’t work, or why it’s really so bad if some get lost.

Because a deflationary currency automatically becomes an asset class - one with zero risk and positive returns. It's the whole presumption that HODL rests on. It's not only ethically suspect - if you think the boomers screwed over the younger generations, wait until the HODLers get hold of 'em - it's an unsupportable contradiction. Money is a medium of exchange - it is a means to an end, and has (or should have) no added-value in itself. BC breaks that, and, if it was widely adopted, would give huge rewards for a non-productive activity. It would make BTL LLs look like Henry Ford.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thing with bitcoin is the genie is out of the bottle, it cant be uninvented. 

All it needs is time, and for the individual Governments  of every county to fail to act in unison in banning it.

Those who control the leaver of power and understand bitcoin hold it, or at least have some small exposure to it. I suppose you could say its corruption. Those who could act want to wait a little longer or plead ignorance.  

All fiat trends to zero value over relatively short periods, now that we finally have a value store which acts like gold, but cant be suppressed like gold, that changes the game hugely. Bitcoin will act to accelerate the decline of fiat. Nothing happens for a long time then suddenly everything happens all at once.

At the moment houses are the only value store in the UK, and they are endlessly climbing, and fiat is constantly thrown under the bus to allow houses to climb. But Bitcoin goes much further than just the UK, its world-wide. It wont take too long before it is seen and understood as the only true value store.

The question is not if, but when that happens. Will central banks stop messing around? will they allow house prices to fall? will fiat every actually regain any value? well that cant and wont happen as it takes out the whole economy.

In some ways Bitcoin actually helps the central bankers as they will still work with fiat, we will all still use fiat. But now we will all be much much happier to spend fiat when you can actually have a tangible figure of how much value you have lost (current inflation figures are worthless). You could see your wealth drop against bitcoin daily.

If Bitcoin is around in 20 years where do you think it will be? do you think countries around the world will act to ban it?

The user base of Bitcoin is young, but in 20 years they will be in the top jobs. 

Even if you think its a bubble, they can run and run, the UK was basically paved in rails before that burst. And imagine how much resistance and work is involved in something soo infinetly less fluid is?   bitcoin is extremely liquid.  

Its humans being humans. A world of fair house prices and real value markers will be a better world. Bitcoin wont interact much with the 'real economy' apart from as a value store. You wont buy houses or cars in Bitcoin. But you can store wealth in it. And transfer wealth out of it.

Its early days yet. But it has a long way to go. Plenty of every increasing booms and busts, with higher lows. 

Its not those who criticise bitcoin who direct its course, its holders like me. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

They wont get funded at some point if they dont adapt.

They, is us. You have to convince the rest of your fellow voters that funding common services with common money (ie. money we all pay) isn't worth it.

Or, you convince them all that it is still worth it, but we should pay with this new money that conveniently a handful of people own the majority of and everyone else should just hand over all their wealth to these few nerds.

Sorry, don't see it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, dugsbody said:

They, is us. You have to convince the rest of your fellow voters that funding common services with common money (ie. money we all pay) isn't worth it.

Or, you convince them all that it is still worth it, but we should pay with this new money that conveniently a handful of people own the majority of and everyone else should just hand over all their wealth to these few nerds.

Sorry, don't see it.

Surely if satoshi is the US government, then it makes perfect sense for it to become currency. Collapse the old fiat debt system and you already own 1mill of them. Genuis. Best buy some while it's still under 10k per btc(not £1 per satoshi).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dugsbody said:

They, is us. You have to convince the rest of your fellow voters that funding common services with common money (ie. money we all pay) isn't worth it.

Or, you convince them all that it is still worth it, but we should pay with this new money that conveniently a handful of people own the majority of and everyone else should just hand over all their wealth to these few nerds.

Sorry, don't see it.

“Hand over all their wealth”. No. It’s money.   Whatever the current rate of £:btc, you’ll be exchanging like for like value. The comparison to houses being way overpriced and btl is completely wrong. As long as the value is stable then it functions as money and anyone can acquire it and use it regardless of the precise current exchange rate.

This is different to houses where we all believe they’re in a bubble and you must exchange more of your labour and savings to have a smaller place to LIVE. And where we expect good value to return. The only possible comparison is if btc is in a bubble and could drop, which is admittedly a risk shorter term and has happened multiple times. But as adoption and market cap grow, the exchange rate should stabilise as with other highly adopted currencies like £:$

For use as money it doesn’t matter if the exchange rate is $1/btc or $1/satoshi, provided it remains stable or slowly increases

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 224 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.