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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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30 minutes ago, AndyFTB said:

 

I have a small number of Bitcoin (less than 1)  and other cryptos but like an idiot having bought most at $35xx I sold about half at between $4.2 and $5 expecting a retrace.  Oh well I have learnt my lesson now, no more selling from me.

Bitcoin 101 , be prepared to lose all you fiat investments, and never sell!

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6 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Rising prices cause some people to sell, but they also cause some people to re-assess their views, so that they think "oh - I thought bitcoin was in a slump, and I wasn't prepared to buy it at $3k.  But now it's gone up to $8k actually I fancy buying it again because it's clearly on the up".

Not only is this right, but as I said a few days ago, I think this is the most rational way to approach it. But people need to decide whether they will try to scalp a quick profit (get in and out whilst the price is still rising) or hold for longer.

8 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

If price rises cause sellers to totally dry up completely though, at that point it's just a bubble - the moment sentiment changes everyone suddenly flips and wants to sell and then it crashes.

If nobody wanted to sell that would mean it had become a store of value (digital gold). This will only happen if fiat money collapses (that's basically impossible unless they voluntarily surrender twintopt status).

13 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

That's the main problem with the volatility of bitcoin - very few people are buying it to make transactions, most people are just speculating, hence the price movements being wild both up and down.

It's not that people aren't using it for transactions, it's that people are speculating in the short term rather than the long term. People either don't have the stomach to hold for the long term or don't believe it will sustain a high price, but think they can earn a quick return by exploiting the irrationality of others.

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12 minutes ago, markyh said:

Bitcoin 101 , be prepared to lose all you fiat investments, and never sell!

But you yourself have said you'd sell half your holding at $150k?  In fact EVERYONE needs to sell at some point to get any benefit - after all the only reason to have money at all is to spend it on something.  It's just the level that everyone is prepared to sell at that's different.

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38 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

But you yourself have said you'd sell half your holding at $150k?  In fact EVERYONE needs to sell at some point to get any benefit - after all the only reason to have money at all is to spend it on something.  It's just the level that everyone is prepared to sell at that's different.

It's a "meme" , meaning don't panic sell when you are under water, or sitting on 1000% gains, or during your first 40% pullback after a parabolic rise. You only sell when you have made stupid high gains and it's life changing.  For sure if this guy is young a 0.9btc could be £100k in 2-3 years, then at that point then yes sell if that is a deposit on a house. But be prepared for a few cycles later for that 0.9btc to be worth £1million. 

I mentioned a guy on here like me from the early pages who sold out 600BTC @ $500 to put a deposit on a house. 

You have to realised my target to sell 50% means my pot would have grown from £2k to £672k , in under 10 years. That's a 33500% gain. This is worth having, 1000%, pah, I spit on you, i'm already @ 1900% and have been at 5000%.

These are proper returns. To the moon...…………………………. 

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7 minutes ago, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

Bitcoin is much closer to true decentralization vs other cryptos.  Very hard to recreate.

Wasn't there a paper written explaining how it was created and so wouldn't the creator or anyone who understands it be able to create another crypto with exactly the same features?

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8 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Wasn't there a paper written explaining how it was created and so wouldn't the creator or anyone who understands it be able to create another crypto with exactly the same features?

There is, and there is no reason why it could not happen except, Bitcoin was there first so has credibility and sucess breeds sucess. 

I think it is a bit like when Ebay began and a few years in there was no reason why someone else could not write auction code and do exactly what Ebay did.  Many tried that.  BUT...  Ebay kept going, because it was already number 1, so it remained number 1.  The others could not get the users to switch once Ebay was dominant, that was that.

It is not a perfect analogy but I think its that sort of idea.

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The top is extremely close. Finally XRP popped to suck in another bunch of clueless punters. 

It's going to take at least 3 - 5 years to shake off all the excesses of 2017 and carve out a legit bottom.

People are going to just have to learn the hard lessons on this one.

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1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

Wasn't there a paper written explaining how it was created and so wouldn't the creator or anyone who understands it be able to create another crypto with exactly the same features?

Bitcoin has a following. It's has team of team working on it. It can't be copied. It is more than lines of code. 

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1 hour ago, GreenDevil said:

Bitcoin has a following. It's has team of team working on it. It can't be copied. It is more than lines of code. 

That doesn't mean it can't be copied. It means it's unlikely and that's what I meant by first mover advantage.

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2 hours ago, AndyFTB said:

There is, and there is no reason why it could not happen except, Bitcoin was there first so has credibility and success breeds success...

It is not a perfect analogy but I think its that sort of idea.

It does indeed have first mover advantage, but there are many examples of the first movers eventually being superceded. Just a few examples: myspace by Facebook and Yahoo and Ask Jeeves by Google. A lot of people (some of them who posted on this thread) have said they think cryptos are the future, but not Bitcoin or at least not necessarily Bitcoin. I think bitcoin probably will retain it's number one status, but the contestability of crypto-assets detracts from their value. There will always be people who say "the last time I checked there was only one gold."

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10 hours ago, Kosmin said:

where will the buyers come from this time? (A lot more buyers are required to push the price from $8,000 to $20,000 than were required from $1,000 to $20,000).

Where did they come from to get us from $3.5k to $8k this year ?. I mean that should not have been possible as "everyone has already heard of bitcoin".

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2 hours ago, Kosmin said:

It does indeed have first mover advantage, but there are many examples of the first movers eventually being superceded. Just a few examples: myspace by Facebook and Yahoo and Ask Jeeves by Google. A lot of people (some of them who posted on this thread) have said they think cryptos are the future, but not Bitcoin or at least not necessarily Bitcoin. I think bitcoin probably will retain it's number one status, but the contestability of crypto-assets detracts from their value. There will always be people who say "the last time I checked there was only one gold."

Congratulations on getting pretty much every widely debunked ******** bitcoin fallacy in one paragraph. Its almost a work of art.  Pretty much the only thing you left out was tulips.

This is thread has broadly two types of contributors, the cypto enthusiats who have over the coarse of 3-5 years made profits ranging from 10's of K to several million (or so it would seem), and then there ... people like you. At what point are you going to start wondering if your on the right side of the debate ?.

Edited by goldbug9999

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11 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

, and then there ... people like you. At what point are you going to start wondering if your on the right side of the debate ?.

My guess is at $21k BTC, after this do they have any more valid arguements? None of those from the last round in 2013-2015, made all the same points and sat out entering the market and who said it could never pass $1200 again, have bothered to continue the fight since 2016/ 2017. 

10 months Tops. 

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On 12/05/2019 at 12:46, narco said:

The evidence is pretty compelling we're heading for $1200.

Anyone suggesting this is going to $200,000 in 2 years needs to put down the crack pipe.

BTC.PNG

Posted at roughly $7400. Currently around $8100 (+9.5%). Will continue to track

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5 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Congratulations on getting pretty much every widely debunked ******** bitcoin fallacy in one paragraph. Its almost a work of art.  Pretty much the only thing you left out was tulips.

There is no need to be rude, he (or she) is making good points politely, that is the whole point of a "discussion" thread.

If you just want to hear your same view amplified by others then I understand that and it is very nice and comforting but you will never really learn anything new and in actual fact it is pointless.

BTC has already been a success by most metrics if you asked people in 2011 what would success be by 2020.  That doesnt mean it will always be sucessfull and talking about the pros and cons and the other options is in the interest of everyone.

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11 hours ago, narco said:

The top is extremely close. Finally XRP popped to suck in another bunch of clueless punters. 

It's going to take at least 3 - 5 years to shake off all the excesses of 2017 and carve out a legit bottom.

People are going to just have to learn the hard lessons on this one.

Narco. I'm learning such hard lessons right now. Thanks buddy. Portfolio up by over £40k this week. I'm back to being an average footballer. 

I hope I'm not going to be taught anymore lessons. 

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1 hour ago, AndyFTB said:

There is no need to be rude, he (or she) is making good points politely, that is the whole point of a "discussion" thread.

I just cant be arsed any more to address the same points as as I was doing 5 years ago. I'm not here to personally tutor someone on half a decade of evolution and development in the space. They can do their own research.

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2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

I just cant be arsed any more to address the same points as as I was doing 5 years ago. I'm not here to personally tutor someone on half a decade of evolution and development in the space. They can do their own research.

I’ll simplify it for them, by some bitcoin, Hodl for 2 years or six years, sell if you want for a bigger profit than you have ever made on any investment in your life.

Remember 2 simple facts, not every millionaire in the world can own 1 whole  bitcoin, 21 million max, ever. On global adoption owning 0.1 Bitcoin will put in the worlds 1% of the wealthy. This will cost you today £600. The downside is nothing, the upside is life changing. 

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11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Congratulations on getting pretty much every widely debunked ******** bitcoin fallacy in one paragraph.

What are you talking about? If bitcoin wasn't the first mover, what was?

11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

This is thread has broadly two types of contributors, the cypto enthusiats who have over the coarse of 3-5 years made profits ranging from 10's of K to several million (or so it would seem), and then there ... people like you. At what point are you going to start wondering if your on the right side of the debate ?.

I made a bit of money from bitcoin. I may do so again. I don't think I've ever said the price wouldn't go up. I just maintain it won't become a medium of exchange, it won't stabilise and it won't replace gold, or become digital gold.

Edited by Kosmin

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11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Where did they come from to get us from $3.5k to $8k this year ?. I mean that should not have been possible as "everyone has already heard of bitcoin".

$8k is a long way below the all time high. If there were aggregate new buyers, we would probably be seeing a new high.

Everybody with money who manages and isn't very risk averse has heard of bitcoin. People with no money, or who allow others to manage their money or who are very risk averse aren't relevant. It is conceivable that some people will become converts in this cycle, but probably not enough to go much higher.

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11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

This is thread has broadly two types of contributors, the cypto enthusiats who have over the coarse of 3-5 years made profits ranging from 10's of K to several million (or so it would seem), and then there ... people like you.

This implies that you are like the typical Brit who believes there are just two asset classes - cash and property. But in your case you only believe in cash and bitcoin. I think many people are doing just fine by investing in other asset classes and perhaps better than the crypto-property bulls on this thread. I say crypto-property bulls as several people have posted on here about how they have used their bitcoin gains to buy a property, right at the top of the market.

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2 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

$8k is a long way below the all time high. If there were aggregate new buyers, we would probably be seeing a new high.

Everybody with money who manages and isn't very risk averse has heard of bitcoin. People with no money, or who allow others to manage their money or who are very risk averse aren't relevant. It is conceivable that some people will become converts in this cycle, but probably not enough to go much higher.

The majority of global wealth still sits with the Boomers, they aren't going to be the ones to drive the price higher. Millenials and Gen Z prefer crypto to other investments and as that demographic's share of global wealth increases in the coming decades we'll see currencies like BTC mature. Dismissing those groups as "irrelevant" because they have no money currently is extremely short sighted.

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2 minutes ago, JawKnee said:

The majority of global wealth still sits with the Boomers, they aren't going to be the ones to drive the price higher. Millenials and Gen Z prefer crypto to other investments and as that demographic's share of global wealth increases in the coming decades we'll see currencies like BTC mature.

Do you have evidence that those generations prefer crypto to other asset classes? That sounds incredibly unlikely. Most people who have a job will allocate their pension to the default, which will be mostly equities. It's only a small proportion of people who like to make direct investments. Most people prefer to have a manager make decisions or tracker.

4 minutes ago, JawKnee said:

Dismissing those groups as "irrelevant" because they have no money currently is extremely short sighted.

I wasn't dismissing those generations. I wasn't thinking by generation, but rather by class. The HNW and UHNW classes are much more important than middle and working class, and to a large extent they don't manage their own money.

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  • 190 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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