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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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On 02/05/2019 at 23:30, scottbeard said:

You've stated on this thread that you believe bitcoin will go to $200k within a few years, and in this post itself that it will go to near double digits in 2019.

Why is your £1k investment contingent on whether the price is $5k or $3k?  Why don't you pile in as much as you can whilst the price is still in single digits, if you genuinely believe it will go to double digits this year and triple digits beyond?

I'm struggling to reconcile your strength of belief in bitcoin with your hesitancy over this additional £1k?

I have the same strategy as markyh - buy the dips but always keep some powder dry incase there is another even lower dip.

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On ‎05‎/‎05‎/‎2019 at 09:41, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

I have a similar strategy also.  Confident in Bitcoin hitting $100k+ but wont put in more money unless dips happens or more years go by and variables stay the same. 

I think this investment behaviour could only be supported by a very odd combination of beliefs and attitudes to risk.

You have stated that you are confident in massive price rises ($100k means a rise of more than 1600%). So even if you accept it could go to zero, it's likely the expected return for you is 1000% (it could be much higher if you think prices well over $100k are likely). So you would only decide to wait to buy more if you were risk averse. But if you were risk averse and thought price falls were likely, why do you still hold?

Often I think the idea of topping up when prices falls is sensible. If an equity is out of favour, but the dividend and the profits which support it seem safe and even likely to increase, it's sensible to take advantage of what appears to be a mispricing.

But if you are trying to time bitcoin I would have thought it makes more sense to buy when the price is rising. Maybe if it starts plummeting it actually does go to zero or very close. Why would you want to buy if that might be happening? Maybe if it starts surging again it won't stop before reaching new highs? Why would you have wanted to wait in such circumstances?

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5 hours ago, Kosmin said:

But if you are trying to time bitcoin I would have thought it makes more sense to buy when the price is rising. Maybe if it starts plummeting it actually does go to zero or very close. Why would you want to buy if that might be happening? Maybe if it starts surging again it won't stop before reaching new highs? Why would you have wanted to wait in such circumstances?

All you are doing is suggesting the the classic amateur follow-the-crowd investment style that results in most retail active traders losing money. It suffers from all the usual well know pitfalls e.g. distinguishing trend from volatility.

Its the antithesis of the well known rule "buy when others are fearful ..."

Edited by goldbug9999

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1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

All you are doing is suggesting the the classic amateur follow-the-crowd investment style that results in most retail active traders losing money. It suffers from all the usual well know pitfalls e.g. distinguishing trend from volatility.

Its the antithesis of the well known rule "buy when others are fearful ..."

I am commenting on the investment strategies of the people who have posted on here that they expect the price will rise at least sixteen fold. I am not advising them. I am saying that given their beliefs their investment strategy does not seem to make sense. I think that their strategy is based on cognitive biases (this is sometimes displayed explicitly, when they talk about how they have so far earned a return of thousands of percent, so they are not particularly bothered by price falls).

I am not suggesting they follow the crowd. The first and by the far the most important point I make is that anyone who believes bitcoin will probably see large gains should not wait at any price. Consider if you didn't want to buy at the roughly $1,000 peak several years ago and then you waited too long and say the price rise to $20k and fall, but perhaps it will never be as low as $1000 again.

"Buy when others are fearful" doesn't apply well to bitcoin, as it doesn't have a fundamental value separate from the network. If the price is rising as demand increases, then the network is becoming more valuable and if the price is falling the network is becoming less valuable. Buying when others are fearful is definitely a meaningful strategy where there is an underlying value and you can see the asset getting cheap (e.g. investment trust share price at a big discount to NAV, share price with a high and growing dividend and profits). In these cases you may expect the market price to increase, but if it doesn't you earn a high return through the dividend. But how can this be applied to bitcoin?

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4 hours ago, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

My own strategy is to try and do the best possible,

That's an objective, rather than a strategy.

I'm just pointing out how mad it is for bitcoiners to wait, when one of the main (perhaps the main) article of faith is that bitcoin will continue the pattern of higher highs and higher lows. The risk of missing out on the next surge is much greater than the risk of falls, especially if $100k or so is on the horizon.

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8 hours ago, Kosmin said:

The first and by the far the most important point I make is that anyone who believes bitcoin will probably see large gains should not wait at any price.

If i had larger amount of spare fiat i would maybe buy more. The current amount of spare fiat i have i would only buy a dip.

Consider the no trade zones in something as volatile as Bitcoin are much larger than average asset.

Also consider a price of around $6k Bitcoin in 2019 is probably about the right price (best guess).  $6k in mid 2020 is a better buy. $6k in 2021 even better.   Assuming all other variables the same.

99% of my time/energy goes into my own business, so i offset my potentially risky Bitcoin obsession this way.  I cant get any better fiat returns investing anywhere else but my own business so this makes sense right now.

 

 

 

 

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On 05/05/2019 at 09:41, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

I have a similar strategy also.  Confident in Bitcoin hitting $100k+ but wont put in more money unless dips happens or more years go by and variables stay the same. 

I probably have more confidence of btc hitting 1000 than 100k. It won't hit those height until of if it goes mainstream and is regulated... We are range bound until this happens. Though the range may be wide! 

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2 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

I probably have more confidence of btc hitting 1000 than 100k. It won't hit those height until of if it goes mainstream and is regulated... We are range bound until this happens. Though the range may be wide! 

Whats your top with no regulation change but another price pump? 

 

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8 hours ago, Spindler said:

Jim Rogers recently said.....All cryptos will go to zero...he' ain't a daft guy

Nope he is the past.

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16 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

I probably have more confidence of btc hitting 1000 than 100k. It won't hit those height until of if it goes mainstream and is regulated... We are range bound until this happens. Though the range may be wide! 

"regulated" - really ? exactly how do you think that can be achieved ?

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19 hours ago, UberMonkeySmallAndChunky said:

Whats your top with no regulation change but another price pump? 

 

1-12k

4 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

"regulated" - really ? exactly how do you think that can be achieved ?

I mean adopted into the mainstream monetary system as fiat and used instead of say apple pay etc. 

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34 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

I mean adopted into the mainstream monetary system as fiat and used instead of say apple pay etc. 

What do you mean "adopted as fiat"? 

Fiat currencies are not backed by anything.  If you turn up at the Bank of England with a £10 note and demand that they honour the promise on it to "pay the bearer the sum of ten pounds" all they will do is give you another £10 note.  Contrast that to the days when you could demand ten pounds worth of silver (or gold in the case of the US Dollar).

How could Bitcoin be "adopted as fiat"?

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7 hours ago, scottbeard said:

What do you mean "adopted as fiat"? 

Fiat currencies are not backed by anything.  If you turn up at the Bank of England with a £10 note and demand that they honour the promise on it to "pay the bearer the sum of ten pounds" all they will do is give you another £10 note.  Contrast that to the days when you could demand ten pounds worth of silver (or gold in the case of the US Dollar).

How could Bitcoin be "adopted as fiat"?

If bitcoin becomes the only currency, then there would be nothing to convert it to, except the goods and services you want to buy. In that scenario maybe you could say it had been "adopted as fiat"

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See keeping £1k back to add to Bitcoin if we get another big dip as a good luck charm as the price sails away further and further, now over $6k! Happy if I get another buy, happier if I miss it!

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Worthless Alt coins barely seeing any gains, few are falling. Alts are only short term pump and dumps which capture the worst of the FOMO during peak mania phases in the Bitcoin cycle. 

Bitcoin is pulling away as expected. 

Still just over a year from the halving, prospects are looking good. 

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20 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

1-12k

 

Not that i spend much time on TA but $12k - $20k there is hardly any price history.  Just like we saw from the $3k to $6k move.   So i guess the issue is total market cap size?

Edited by UberMonkeySmallAndChunky

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15 hours ago, Kosmin said:

If bitcoin becomes the only currency, then there would be nothing to convert it to, except the goods and services you want to buy. In that scenario maybe you could say it had been "adopted as fiat"

No, you couldn't! That's a fundamental misunderstanding of what a fiat currency is.

A fiat currency is issued by a government, rather than backed by an actual item.

For example, sterling is a fiat currency. Something is only "£1" if the government tells you it is.  They can mint, print and digitally invent as many £1s as they want any day they like.  Similarly they can at a moment's notice tell you that something isn't £1 any more (think of old notes/coins etc).

Bitcoin, like gold, is not a fiat currency - and saying it can be "adopted as fiat" makes no sense.  It can be adopted as the preferred currency of a group of people or countries, but that's not the same thing at all.  No government can suddenly create or remove bitcoin/gold, nor tell you that something is bitcoin/gold that yesterday wasn't.

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Anyone want to have a guess at the worlds best performing asset class in 2019 assuming you bought it on 1st of January?  Oil, Gold, Property, Equities?

????

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Woohooo. Original 2013/14 Crypto pot back over £30k for 1st time in 2019 from £18k lows. I feel a pull back soon though. Buy the dip!

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  • 219 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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