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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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8 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Because we are discussing the bitcoin market, not your investments. Unless a significant part of the market is doing what you're doing, your investments aren't particularly relevant.

What? I was giving anecdotal evidence to Goldbug9999's statement that previous 2014 buyers have bought again after the 2018 crash, despite the bear market and despite in 20x + than their initial buy in. That's me!

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15 minutes ago, markyh said:

What? I was giving anecdotal evidence to Goldbug9999's statement that previous 2014 buyers have bought again after the 2018 crash, despite the bear market and despite in 20x + than their initial buy in. That's me!

 

I thought you were giving evidence to me! You replied to my post:

 

1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

This sounds plausible, but I expect people usually add a smaller amount. A lot of people who aren't wealthy made enormous gains, so most of their wealth is already in bitcoins. They can't add significant further wealth. Others are selling, not primarily because they expect falls, but to buy houses etc.

 

56 minutes ago, markyh said:

I did. I bought more in 2018 at price levels  up to 20 x higher than my initial 2014 entry. Put £6.5k in to Bitcoin ETN in my SIPP , £500 in September, £5000 in October and £1000 in November (late) . Also Put £2.5 in an Ethereum ETN in my SIPP in October 2018. 

If bitcoin is distributing wealth it stands to reason that people who earned large returns from buying it early would not be able to add a significant amount to their stake.

 

 

Edited by Kosmin

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Since this conversation seems to be going round in circles a bit how about a change of tack .. how about providing % guesses as to the probability of these three scenarios:

Bitcoin becomes (and remains) a significant asset (lets say > $trillion cap) : 95%

Bitcoin becomes a curiosity with negligible value long term (lets say unit price < $500) : 5%

Bitcoin carries on with a value in the low $K value in the long term (say 10 years+): 0%

 

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1 minute ago, goldbug9999 said:

Since this conversation seems to be going round in circles a bit how about a change of tack .. how about providing % guesses as to the probability of these three scenarios:

A) Bitcoin becomes (and remains) a significant asset (lets say > $trillion cap) : 95%

B )Bitcoin becomes a curiosity with negligible value long term (lets say unit price < $500) : 5%

C) Bitcoin carries on with a value in the low $K value in the long term (say 10 years+): 0%

 

For me A )97% B)3% C)0%

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20 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Since this conversation seems to be going round in circles a bit how about a change of tack .. how about providing % guesses as to the probability of these three scenarios:

Bitcoin becomes (and remains) a significant asset (lets say > $trillion cap) : 95%

Bitcoin becomes a curiosity with negligible value long term (lets say unit price < $500) : 5%

Bitcoin carries on with a value in the low $K value in the long term (say 10 years+): 0%

 

 

a) 3%

b) 2%

c) 95%

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8 hours ago, longgone said:

is this a bitcoin miner hodling ??

well he does have a pick ?

 

Stop it...you're killing me!! That is very very funny

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2 hours ago, Black Rod said:

 

Still find it hard to believe people still claim hardly anyone has heard of Bitcoin.

Virtually everybody I speak to that can string a sentence together has heard of it. 

 

 

😅...oh God I love this thread...

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21 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Interesting, so whats your reasoning behind giving c the high probability rather than b ?. 

Surely c is the default.

I think the last time it was below $500 was May 2016. Even going back to November 2013 I think it was more often above $500 than below. It doesn't seem likely to fall below this level. It's not even obvious to me that it will fall from it's present level. I'm sceptical that lots of new buyers will be forthcoming or significant additions will be made by somecoiners. Similarly I'm sceptical that people will continue to sell. I think the crash from $20,000 was due to forced sellers who were gambling with borrowed money. So I see no reason for a strong trend upwards or downwards (e.g. to $500 or $50,000), though I realise it's possible. Whatever the direction, I don't think it will become less volatile.

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21 hours ago, Kosmin said:

I'm sceptical that lots of new buyers will be forthcoming or significant additions will be made by somecoiners. 

There has to be a non trivial constant flow of new money into bitcoin to keep the price from continually falling due to mined supply increase. 1800 BTC/day currently - that around $7million / day. 

Edited by goldbug9999

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1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

There has to be a non trivial constant flow of new money into bitcoin to keep the price from continually falling due to mined supply increase. 1800 BTC/day currently - that around $7million / day. 

That's approximately one ten thousandth of the total bitcoins in existence! I don't know the volumes traded, but I would have thought there would be easily be that much changing hands. I suspect buyers would be forthcoming for these if there weren't a lot of people cashing in to buy houses or because they were just speculating for a short period.

If there weren't enough people to buy the newly mined bitcoins, what would that suggest about their long term value? Gold seems to contend with this issue quite well without the certainly of a commonly known, fixed maximum quantity.

Edited by Kosmin

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On 13/01/2019 at 21:55, goldbug9999 said:

Interesting, so whats your reasoning behind giving c the high probability rather than b ?. 

No support perhaps? 

$1,200 is a no brainer looking at the monthly, with $314 the next level below that in a multi year bear, perhaps a decade. 

The best level of untested BTC support on this chart is $16.89 :)

BTC.PNG

Edited by narco

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17 minutes ago, narco said:

No support perhaps? 

$1,200 is a no brainer looking at the monthly, with $314 the next level below that in a multi year bear, perhaps a decade. 

The best level of untested BTC support on this chart is $16.89 :)

BTC.PNG

 i will buy 100 when it reaches $16 bucks a piece 😄

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Another thing you may not know about Bitcoin: it's killing the planet - As a Bitcoin maker who covered the oil industry as a journalist, I see parallels between the two that may haunt cryptocurrency

Quote

 

I make Bitcoin, and in a previous life, I covered the oil industry as a journalist. Increasingly, I’m realizing the two worlds are alike. Bitcoin is oil.

And one day, Bitcoin will become big oil, and all who dabble in it will be reborn as enemies of the environmental movement, seen as plunderers of the planet and the bad guys in the fight against climate change – just like oil.

Bitcoin’s environmental footprint will haunt it. Nobody has pointed this out, but it is painfully clear: if we can at all predict an industry’s growth by that of a different one, then oil is Bitcoin’s crystal ball.

Most cryptocurrencies, of which Bitcoin is the first and most valuable, are created by running servers to crunch mathematical puzzles, or “mining”.

I have a facility that does that in Canada’s oil capital of Calgary, and its business model is similar to that of the city’s dominant industry. Both profit by generating and selling a product whose price swings with supply and demand. Some in Calgary partake in both.

The cryptocurrency world is bigger than mining, just as the vaguely defined big oil is more than those who extract crude. But shares in either industry move in sync with the value of the underlying asset.

 

 

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6 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

You're assuming it will end up as something more than a token for criminals traded at a very low value.

Edited by wsn03

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On ‎18‎/‎01‎/‎2019 at 17:03, wsn03 said:

You're assuming it will end up as something more than a token for criminals traded at a very low value.

This doesn't seem plausible. There is a record of all transactions, so if a criminal's identity is discovered, all of his bitcoin transactions are uncovered. Cash is a lot safer.

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Bitcoin ETF withdrawn 2 days ago and no further crash in BTC. Good news, FUD no longer moves the market suggests we have bottomed and all that would sell in a panic have and remaining are not phased by bad news. We might have reached the balance between exhausted sellers and buyers, the slow grind accumulation phase to the summer when we reach 1 year to the 2020 “halving” event and traditionally the next bull run starts slowly , really taking on steam after the halving event. 

Now the theory is Vaneck ETF was withdrawn due to US Gov shutdown and no staff to approve it before the Feb deadline so an automatic decline if not approved or declined manually. But average joe who would panic sell probably doesn’t think this deeply about it so no sell off reaction is a great sign. 

So they no doubt will resubmit after Trump gets his wall built and opens Gov again. 

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On 21/01/2019 at 12:44, tomandlu said:

Good news - someone's finally got a decent real-world use-case for the blockchain...

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/01/15/hsbc_blockchain_forex/

This is the xrp ledger but in a firewalled garden. Xrp will be the digital asset behind most international remittances in the next couple of years. 

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1 hour ago, dragging boot straps said:

This is the xrp ledger but in a firewalled garden. Xrp will be the digital asset behind most international remittances in the next couple of years. 

I have to admit I have no way to assess such statements. However, I do remember the great XML over-sell of the noughties, so my instinct is that the blockchain will continue to be touted for a little while yet as the solution to world hunger, before settling in to some appropriate niches... not that I'd describe XML as 'niche', but compared to some of the idiotic 'solutions' that used it, it's a much smaller field.

I think the worst thing I ever saw was a db where distinct data was all stored in the same column, but with XML wrappers to identify them.

e.g. (for anyone who give a damn, and very simplified), instead of having saying Hb and Ferritin stored like this:
Date....      Hb.... Ferr
1/1/2019  9.2    4

You'd have:
Date....      Value
1/1/2019  <result='Hb' /><value>9.2</value>
1/1/2019 <result='Ferr' /><value>4</value>

and then the front end had to sort all this nonsense out.

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7 hours ago, tomandlu said:

I have to admit I have no way to assess such statements. However, I do remember the great XML over-sell of the noughties..

So do I! I played with some html editing and a programmer friend told me to get a book on XML, as it's the next big thing.  What a waste of time that was.

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  • 276 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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