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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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6 hours ago, crypto2001 said:

Thats a very good point...

Just curious as even Mike Novogratz has admitted calling the bottom wrong and buying more ETH when BTC was $6200 and ETH $400, what is your current holdings. The charts show very few people actually sold in 2017 at $20k. Have you 100% bailed, kept 50% or a balls of steel Hodler like me?

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7 hours ago, crypto2001 said:

Thats a very good point...

I’m no precious metals expert but I don’t know of any Gold and Silver futures exchange that is physically settled daily? Would be a lot of work. Will be as easy as pie on Bakkt NYSE exchange with bitcoin. Will be good as will give a more trusted price discovery metric. 

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All the stuff about "paper gold" being over allocated on any appreciable scale is horseshit, gold is one of the most tightly scrutinized and regulated markets in the world. Its all totally unsubstantiated theories by the zero hedge tin foil hatter brigade.

Gold has in fact done fantastically well vs fiat, exactly as you would expect, over a time span of a few decades - it was £200/oz in 2001, its probably only ceased to go up in recent years because was over bought after about 2011, long term however gold price has been tracking fiat money supply inflation quite nicely.

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I sold 200,000 xrp at €0.8 and then watched the price spike to €2.67. The rest I have determined to hold indefinitely so I can use the Internet freely without charge and then possibly loan out my xrp to financial institutions when it becomes the global hyper currency. I'm here for the tech rather than the fiat gains. 

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22 hours ago, crypto2001 said:

Thats a very good point...

I don't know if you follow Crypto news but this is from a month ago about another big player, Fidelity,  entering Crypto and bitcoin with custody solutions for institutions. 2019 will be interesting how long the bear market can last. I now think banks are trying to get Bitcoin as low as possible in 2018 and 2019 before these are available to give the biggest $$$ gap between entry price and the 2017 $20k ATH.

Once those futures turn long and the bets go bullish and institutions are playing via trusted exchanges with custody solutions, Whoosh.

On these few things alone and with retail no longer being the main market mover I have no medium term worries we will not pass the 2017 ATH within the same 3 year Nov 2013/ Nov 2016 bear cycle onto a new 2021 bull run, or before.

 

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11 hours ago, dragging boot straps said:

I sold 200,000 xrp at €0.8 and then watched the price spike to €2.67. The rest I have determined to hold indefinitely so I can use the Internet freely without charge and then possibly loan out my xrp to financial institutions when it becomes the global hyper currency. I'm here for the tech rather than the fiat gains. 

Unfortunately you're holding a centralised fraud token. There is zero evidence any bank is using or planning to use XRP. I posted evidence a few pages back as to why XRP as a payment system is an almighty epic fail. 

It's a scam and you're basically propping up a ponzi scheme by promoting this token.

As for tech, XLM is the same but decentralised and not a security. 

Edited by narco

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On 13/12/2018 at 10:20, crypto2001 said:

@jiltedjen you are probably the only one person on this thread that i take very seriously and have huge respect for. Please can you tell me if you agree with what I'm saying regarding the short to mid term btc price suppression. If you agree please say why and also if you disagree please can you state your reasons. I am also open to criticism if they are constructive :)

I don’t think price suppression is happening, the only price suppression we have is the media talking it down, but to be honest this time they are not overly interested in slating bitcoin daily. 

There is no concerted effort to drive bitcoin price down, it’s just typical post bubble/mania decline. you can’t control bitcoin like gold, the open ledger is rock solid. The open ledger is an incredible act of genius. anyone who understands the open ledger wouldn’t even attempt to try and move markets via futures or paper contracts. 

you may have the odd whale, and the usual market players. all we are seeing is the aftermath of a bubble, it was obviously a bubble I said countless times. the real hard thing to do now is to guess the bottom, as soon as that’s hit for any length of time we are going to get a huge short squeeze. you can try and find reasons for the decline but it’s just simple, people got greedy and those who don’t hold who bought at the peak and loosing serious money, you can’t be emotional with investments, it was very very hard for me to stay out of this recent bubble, but I did. you can get swept along. I kept myself busy building a budget mining rig, which was fun, and to ensure my mind was active and destracted enough so I wouldn’t double down on my already at that point overexposure to bitcoin in my varied portfolio (1% bitcoin value of my portfolio since 2013 just kept growing faster than I could pile funds into other parts of the portfolio!) 

I have been surprised by how little the media have been tasked to slate bitcoin, I think the strategy at the moment is basically ‘any news is good news for bitcoin’ they are more tasking the ‘keep news down and hope it fades away, less people hear about bitcoin, some people will forget’ 

we are not at the 2018/2019 low yet, and annoyingly my previous predictions of the low after the bubble has been crushed, narco is currently closer to calling the low than me. 

I think the real low will come summer 2019, what’s that based on? By then this thread will be cold, 7 or 8 months is all it takes for people to get bored of a slowly declining dull market. 

For me a long term holder, the recent bubble just confirmed that bitcoin can hit those heady heights, now I’m much more confident to increase my exposure (especially as the rest of my saving portfolio has started to catch up), now it’s just a long wait for the halving. come April 2020, the time to buy is in the depths of despair come summer 2019, then it’s a 9-10 month wait for the next bubble. 

these bubbles are a nessasery evil along bitcoins long term price discovery. in 20 years time bitcoin will be so large and widely used as a value store that the prices of a single bitcoin will of reached relative stability, and we will finally have a market in which the general populace can actually in real terms see how their fiat spending power changes from day to day, central banks would never be allowed to crush the young again, and boomers would have to pay back all the wealth stolen from the young (just a shame they will be gone by then!). 

whatever the negative people say, it’s sensible to have a varied portfolio with lots of asset classes and bitcoin being a high risk asset class you should still have some limited exposure just out of common sense. 

There are plenty of bankers etc, who hate bitcoin, but they are smart enough to have some exposure just in case. 

personally I think if you don’t have some limited exposure to bitcoin then your not being prudent or sensible. 

Alt coins just do not serve a purpose, bitcoin works as it fills the need for a value store which is not controlled by central banks. the rest of the alts don’t do anything new, or even required. we don’t need a digital fiat coin, we have fiat for that. bitcoin will never replace fiat, but it will eventually replaces houses as the primary value store in this country. 

And it will be much less socially destructive. 

bitcoin will finally deliver stability to huge areas of the global economy, countries which are prone to corruption may not even have central banks or fiat anymore (the real unstable countries that is), they may lightening second layers instead. 

bitcoin is very very hard currency, harder than the world has ever seen. it might not lead a world we all like, but personally anything is better than having all my life wages stolen by old people and banks driving up houses with their own corrupt money creation,we are all slaves right now. We are slaves as long as private banks have the ability to print money. 

There may be slaves the the future also, but at least the productive will be just fine, at least we won’t have the most corrupt immoral people in society in charge of the money supply (bankers) with no way to escape their evil and greed (bitcoin is your escape out of the corrupt system) 

Edited by jiltedjen

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BTC holders better pray that $1,200 holds as the next support below that is $320.

The charts suggest this is where price is heading and people need to be prepared for it.

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2 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

I don’t think price suppression is happening, the only price suppression we have is the media talking it down, but to be honest this time they are not overly interested in slating bitcoin daily. 

There is no concerted effort to drive bitcoin price down, it’s just typical post bubble/mania decline.

Its plain old irrational exuberance with the attendant bust. Each of these bull runs is essentially a test to see if the world is actually ready for such a revolutionary idea as money with no counter parties and no external backing. So far the answer has been "no", one day the answer will be "yes". 

Edited by goldbug9999

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5 minutes ago, narco said:

BTC holders better pray that $1,200 holds as the next support below that is $320.

The charts suggest this is where price is heading and people need to be prepared for it.

Doesn't matter how low it goes, in 5 years time I will still have the same amount of bitcoin (well actually more because I'm buying in at each new low).

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37 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Doesn't matter how low it goes, in 5 years time I will still have the same amount of bitcoin (well actually more because I'm buying in at each new low).

It will be a great time to buy if it gets to $320 but the next 2017 style run is probably 8-12 years away. 

A bubble of this size is going to take a long time to unwind and will need a whole new generation of punters.

What is amazing to see if that some people have no clue the bull market is over. You still see these idiots on YouTube, Reddit etc still shilling and pumping this thing. 

The monthly BTC chart is Gold of 1980. I bet people were still pumping gold in 1981/1982 and that took almost 30 years to take out that high.

Edited by narco

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1 hour ago, narco said:

It will be a great time to buy if it gets to $320 but the next 2017 style run is probably 8-12 years away. 

A bubble of this size is going to take a long time to unwind and will need a whole new generation of punters.

What is amazing to see if that some people have no clue the bull market is over. You still see these idiots on YouTube, Reddit etc still shilling and pumping this thing. 

The monthly BTC chart is Gold of 1980. I bet people were still pumping gold in 1981/1982 and that took almost 30 years to take out that high.

Bitcoin is transformative in way that no other asset class is, gold included. Everyone who shares your disbelief in this will of course arrive at a similar conclusion to yours.

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On 18/12/2017 at 17:01, doomed said:

lol. I have over $1M invested all in Bitcoin Cash and have done significantly better than if I left in Bitcoin. People may think I am full of shit but would be happy to prove cryptographically if anybody wants to make a wager worth my while.

 

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On 30/12/2017 at 09:07, doomed said:

I think we have now hit peak retardation in crypto. I have exited 85% of my stake. Good luck everyone.

I am obviously very upset at how this whole crypto thing played out.

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10 hours ago, Black Rod said:

 

I was wrong. I still don’t think the BTC fork will lead in market cap long term, but impossible to pick a winner in the current turmoil.

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23 minutes ago, Black Rod said:

Great timing! Assuming you banked the proceeds in boring old cash.

Put a chunk in property that I will probably take a bath on, and it was too late in the tax year to do anything so as to avoid capital gains tax which took a big chunk.

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On 14/12/2018 at 19:50, narco said:

Unfortunately you're holding a centralised fraud token. There is zero evidence any bank is using or planning to use XRP. I posted evidence a few pages back as to why XRP as a payment system is an almighty epic fail. 

It's a scam and you're basically propping up a ponzi scheme by promoting this token.

As for tech, XLM is the same but decentralised and not a security. 

You don't understand the technology which is clear from the above. You've made some large technical errors. Too large to correct so all I can suggest is that you put in some hard yards on the research front. I can point you to some good sources if you'd like but I won't bark at the moon. 

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22 hours ago, narco said:

It will be a great time to buy if it gets to $320 but the next 2017 style run is probably 8-12 years away. 

A bubble of this size is going to take a long time to unwind and will need a whole new generation of punters.

What is amazing to see if that some people have no clue the bull market is over. You still see these idiots on YouTube, Reddit etc still shilling and pumping this thing. 

The monthly BTC chart is Gold of 1980. I bet people were still pumping gold in 1981/1982 and that took almost 30 years to take out that high.

the 2013/14 bubble was epic, took 3/4 years for the next bubble late 2017/early 2018 this time there is a halving 2 and a half years after, come April 2020.

give or take a few months. it’s one of those self fulfilling things. 

pure human psychology. 

It won’t take a whole new generation, just like with the 2013/2014 bubble, still plenty involved in the 2017/2018 bubble, same with the 2020/(and 2021?) bubble. 

if anything right now there are masses of people waiting for the downward trend to stop, and stabilise, everyone is just waiting for the bottom. I even think we are going to get a bit of a dead cat bounce soon, plenty of people piling in for the price to temporarily bounce a little then fade back to lows. Those lows will sit for a long boring few months, until gradually ticking up as long term holders start buying for the halving , thus best time to buy is summer 2019. 

I’m still up just under 1,000% and it’s been years of holding, a lot has changed in this space over that time. Bitcoin is still the only realistic crypto in town, the mining power has increased dramatically, nearly everyone has heard of bitcoin, and to top it all off the general economy is in no better shape than the financial crisis, the business cycle is about to roll over into another recession, maybe even crisis, so further value will be stolen from the average mans money, houses the sacred cow will be propped up again at the expense of the young, the whole feeling of anger which birthed bitcoin will reawaken. 

The early adopters are starting the long path to positions of power in their respective establishments, another 10 years and that same generation will be writing the laws, and approving much more lax trading and use of bitcoin, plus as industry 3.0 and ‘the internet of things’ becomes wide-spread it’s ripe for crypto to enter the space. 

if bitcoin has survived 10 years now, that’s 10 years of something which has ‘no intrinsic value’ to survive. I agree bitcoin has no intrinsic value when viewed out of context of the wider world we live in, but once you factor in all the money printing, high house prices, cost of living, it’s clear the world is not working right for the average man, all our yearly incremental improvements in technology and progress is being stolen, life is supposed to get easier, but it’s getting harder, it should not be like that. 

its time for change, we are 10 years into that slow process at the moment, it’s not something I would like to bet against, bitcoin fills a need, probably the biggest need that we all face in the current corrupt rotten economic world we live in. it may take 20-30 years more, but the banking system will suffer at the hands of bitcoin. I think at least some of the Mods understand that. Hence why bitcoin has been allowed to stay top of the HPC forum for soo long, (and why shite alt coins are shoved to sub forums) if you want houses to just be houses, not insane value stores, then you need a way for people to store wealth without fear of government theft, you need to support bitcoin.

Edited by jiltedjen

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  • 277 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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