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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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17 minutes ago, AdamoMucci said:

In decades to come, historians will talk about Bitcoin in the same way they talk about the tulip mania. It just shows that, despite our admirable ability when it comes to technological advance, emotionally we have not evolved in thousands of years.

Bitcoin.jpg

indeed the clever ones use human emotion to their advantage time and time again. the game may change but the rules are the same.

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8 minutes ago, longgone said:

indeed the clever ones use human emotion to their advantage time and time again. the game may change but the rules are the same.

 

Its actually a beautiful specimen when you look at it!

 

bitcoin1.jpg

mania.png

Edited by AdamoMucci

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The people calling bubble are looking at things in too narrow a time frame. What about the countless other 90% crashes in the crypto market?

This is par for the course with nascent technology. Ultimately there is a hugely persuasive use case.

I keep using XRP as the example but I'm long on bitcoin also. You can SETTLE transactions in 3 to 5 seconds with zero error and close to zero cost. You can move billions of pounds for a thousandth of a pence, internationally. That's impressive. 

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1 hour ago, dragging boot straps said:

The people calling bubble are looking at things in too narrow a time frame. What about the countless other 90% crashes in the crypto market?

This is par for the course with nascent technology. Ultimately there is a hugely persuasive use case.

I keep using XRP as the example but I'm long on bitcoin also. You can SETTLE transactions in 3 to 5 seconds with zero error and close to zero cost. You can move billions of pounds for a thousandth of a pence, internationally. That's impressive. 

As is widely recorded here I am also big into $XRP as it does see real use.

Interestingly I was at a FinTech event this week and spoke with a few of the exchanges. Quite a few had a real downer on Bitcoin, one  guy telling me it is riddled with issues and is now heavily centralised etc etc.

That is either a sign the bottom is near, or that BTC will be replaced

 

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4 hours ago, dragging boot straps said:

The people calling bubble are looking at things in too narrow a time frame. What about the countless other 90% crashes in the crypto market?

This is par for the course with nascent technology. Ultimately there is a hugely persuasive use case.

I keep using XRP as the example but I'm long on bitcoin also. You can SETTLE transactions in 3 to 5 seconds with zero error and close to zero cost. You can move billions of pounds for a thousandth of a pence, internationally. That's impressive. 

You can do the same for zero cost and half the speed with Nano. 

XRP is a fraud and a turd. Not only a centralised ponzi where Ripple Corp own 60% of supply, there's other crap such as you need a 20 token lockup for every wallet. 

It's also a clear cut security so will end up being banned and delisted from exchanges. 

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21 hours ago, AdamoMucci said:

 

Its actually a beautiful specimen when you look at it!

 

bitcoin1.jpg

mania.png

Yawn, I can find the same type of people as you from 2014 after the last crash saying the same things, posting the same charts and sitting on their hands, me got in in 2013/14 and turned £2k into £17k as of today, quite happy, willing to wait or go to zero. 

You just need to "look left" on you top chart to see the true pucture, but lets do it in figures, ignoring the big rises between blow off bubbles and long ultimate bottoms between cycles.

Bitcoin launched in 2009.

In 2010 it went from $0.06 to $0.36, then crashed to $0.21

in 2011 it went from $0.85 to $29, then crashed to $3 

in 2012/13 it went from $5 to $214 then crashed to $70

in 2013/14 (went I got in) it went from $70 to $1100, then crashed to $240

in 2016/17/18 it went from $431 to $20k , then cashed to $3200 (so far no idea if the bottom is in yet)

So then it will go something like. 

in 2019/20/2021 it went from $2400 to $200k, then crashed to $30k.

The morale of the story, don't sell during the market crashes, it will recover, until it doesn't, but whi knows when that will stop? no me, not you (well you think it has this time, like every one did in 2014/15).

You like everyone who doesn't like Crypto / Bitcoin and doesn't get it will keep sitting on your hands an preaching in a bear market and whining like stuck pigs in bull markets. So let's now wait until 2021 and see what happens. 

But for sure the sentiment is at an all time cycle low now and capitulation cant be far away, but then 90% of the bears on here posting now where not posting in 20113/14/15, and the Bears that did post all the "death of Bitcoin" stuff in 2014/15 are still around but choose not to post more bearish forecasts or comments as they got it very, very wrong. 

I'm perfectly prepared to say I got it wrong had £100k from £2k in 3 years and then it went to £0.  Meh, Shit happens. But my long term outlook for Crypto is up, and it's known I hold Bitcoin, XRP, Etherium, Litecoin, IOTA, EOS, BCH-ABC, BCH-SV, Bitcoin Gold and whatever other Bitcoin forks I didn't claim yet! 

 

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20 minutes ago, markyh said:

Yawn, I can find the same type of people as you from 2014 after the last crash saying the same things, posting the same charts and sitting on their hands, me got in in 2013/14 and turned £2k into £17k as of today, quite happy, willing to wait or go to zero. 

You just need to "look left" on you top chart to see the true pucture, but lets do it in figures, ignoring the big rises between blow off bubbles and long ultimate bottoms between cycles.

Bitcoin launched in 2009.

In 2010 it went from $0.06 to $0.36, then crashed to $0.21

in 2011 it went from $0.85 to $29, then crashed to $3 

in 2012/13 it went from $5 to $214 then crashed to $70

in 2013/14 (went I got in) it went from $70 to $1100, then crashed to $240

in 2016/17/18 it went from $431 to $20k , then cashed to $3200 (so far no idea if the bottom is in yet)

So then it will go something like. 

in 2019/20/2021 it went from $2400 to $200k, then crashed to $30k.

The morale of the story, don't sell during the market crashes, it will recover, until it doesn't, but whi knows when that will stop?

It's not really clear what the moral of the story is. I think each of those booms is based on the projection of long term value*, so it's not obvious that this pattern will continue. Also if it does, is the end a boom and then plateau or 90% crash then plateau? It can't keep booming at that rate (if it did, by the time it was the most valuable currency/asset further booms wouldn't be feasible). This is something which inhibits adoption as a store of value. The barriers to adoption as medium of exchange are far more serious (if you were earning $20,000 per month, aren't you glad you didn't agree to be paid 1 bitcoin a month last year? If you were paying $1,000 per month on your mortgage, aren't you glad you didn't agree to pay 1 bitcoin per month instead, back when that was the price of bitcoin?)

Why do you think there hasn't been any significant buying in the last year? (No big institutional investors in spite of the launch of derivatives making it easier) Why do you think this will change?

 

* I think it's important to realise that a big reason for the expectation of crypto to take off is that fiat will collapse. There is no reason to expect that all major fiat currencies are going to collapse. This has never happened. Instead basket-cases (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe) can't afford to meet their obligations (Germany had to reparations to France and it's industry was devastated by war, Venezuela expected oil to remain expensive). To think that the whole world will destroy themselves for no reason is not well supported, but this is what underlies bitcoin going to hundreds of thousands of dollars.

 

20 minutes ago, markyh said:

I'm perfectly prepared to say I got it wrong had £100k from £2k in 3 years and then it went to £0.  Meh, Shit happens.

This is not an argument about bitcoin. It is a statement that about your risk aversion (not very) and irrationality (that the risk of losing money depends on previous gains).

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3 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

. It is a statement that about your risk aversion (not very) and irrationality (that the risk of losing money depends on previous gains).

i'm one of those people who doesnt need the money desperately, and have a far greater fear of selling out to early and missing even bigger gains than losing it all. 

I have always said will sell out 50% when 50% will clear my mortgage, but Bitcoin needs to be around $115k for that to happen so am prepared to wait, and each year past 2018 my target gets £24k lower!!

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On 06/12/2018 at 17:48, markyh said:

Well one of us will be full of bitterness and regret in 10 years time, could be me!!

I remember saying on this thread many years ago that Id rather regret blowing a few grand on something that came to nothing, than regretting not blowing a few grand on something that made it big.

I will just say "good luck" to all those who try to time markets of any sort, most of you are deluding yourselves that it can be done with any more than a 50/50 chance of success. Not that this is anything to be ashamed of its just human psyche is just too prone to see pattern where none exist and your imagination has a tendency to back-fit decisions after the fact "I remember thinking it was going to crash ..." well sorry no you probably didn't, your just imagining that you did [I suggest reading nassim taleb's Fooled By Randomness if you doubt this].

 

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OK so I am curios what the bitcoin/crypto skeptics think is going to happen going forward - do you think its all going to "zero" (lets call less than $100 zero for this purpose) ?. If yes then why now ? why not 5 years ago ? why not after any of the 4 (?) previous crashes ?. I mean how many times something have to crash 80% before everyone decides its a crap idea and goes home ?.

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47 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

OK so I am curios what the bitcoin/crypto skeptics think is going to happen going forward - do you think its all going to "zero" (lets call less than $100 zero for this purpose) ?.

I don't think it can go to zero, because too many people think it has value. $100 might be possible.

 

47 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

If yes then why now ? why not 5 years ago ? why not after any of the 4 (?) previous crashes ?

The difference between the booms and crashes is there was an increasing awareness during each of them. People weren't watching the price go from nothing to $30 to $2, then buying. People who typically buying when they heard about it, or when they had researched it enough to think it was a good idea. There is little prospect of another boom based on wider awareness, as almost everyone is now aware of bitcoin (certainly everyone who has significant wealth or manages wealth has heard of it). The only possibility for the price to increase significantly is people who have already heard of bitcoin choose to buy when they have previously decided not to.

47 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

I mean how many times something have to crash 80% before everyone decides its a crap idea and goes home ?.

Markets don't work like this. Some people think gold is dog shit and people should only buy things with a yield. Others think its worth holding as part of a balanced portfolio and others have a high allocation.

 

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34 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I don't think it can go to zero, because too many people think it has value. $100 might be possible.

 

The difference between the booms and crashes is there was an increasing awareness during each of them. People weren't watching the price go from nothing to $30 to $2, then buying. People who typically buying when they heard about it, or when they had researched it enough to think it was a good idea. There is little prospect of another boom based on wider awareness, as almost everyone is now aware of bitcoin (certainly everyone who has significant wealth or manages wealth has heard of it). The only possibility for the price to increase significantly is people who have already heard of bitcoin choose to buy when they have previously decided not to.

Markets don't work like this. Some people think gold is dog shit and people should only buy things with a yield. Others think its worth holding as part of a balanced portfolio and others have a high allocation.

 

It started at zero and it will go back to zero... too many suppliers and the currency can never work without central bank blessing. 

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1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

OK so I am curios what the bitcoin/crypto skeptics think is going to happen going forward - do you think its all going to "zero" (lets call less than $100 zero for this purpose) ?. If yes then why now ? why not 5 years ago ? why not after any of the 4 (?) previous crashes ?. I mean how many times something have to crash 80% before everyone decides its a crap idea and goes home ?.

I think BTC might go to a few Dollars, but not Zero, unless of course all mining stops - which is possible. I also see ETH dropping a lot (which it has already) - basically because whilst it is a nice idea, it isn’t scalable. 

For me XRP is the one with the clearest use case, and I am starting to wonder if XLM might start moving up to play second fiddle to XRP. I could see XLM passing ETH in due course, there is still a massive gap, but ETH at $40 and XLM back at $0.2 would close most of it.

 

 

 

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First ever reply on this thread, be patient.

We know the price of crypto has gone down.  But has the use of blockchain technology gone up?

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31 minutes ago, harp said:

First ever reply on this thread, be patient.

We know the price of crypto has gone down.  But has the use of blockchain technology gone up?

Go back between 2-5 pages, it has been answered already, blockchain's only current and primary use is securing the bitcoin network, of which is has been 100% a success over 10 years. Not one Bitcoin stolen by hacking the blockchain code or manipulating / editing the blockchain, and no reverse or altered transactions. Only losses have been through human error, either via hacking of poor security code on exchanges or dumb people being duped/ tricked to giving up their private keys. 

On that note it's a huge success to me as even my several private bank accounts and credit cards have been subject to successful fraud attempts in the last 10 years that the banks had to refund, Bitcoin and all my other crypto, not lost a bean except very low exchange fees.

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8 minutes ago, markyh said:

Only losses have been through human error, either via hacking of poor security code on exchanges or dumb people being duped/ tricked to giving up their private keys. 

On that note it's a huge success to me as even my several private bank accounts and credit cards have been subject to successful fraud attempts in the last 10 years that the banks had to refund, Bitcoin and all my other crypto, not lost a bean except very low exchange fees.

It sounds like your bank accounts are also a success, from your perspective at least, as any costs of fraud were not borne by you.

Bitcoin is subject to different risks. I'm not sure how they compare to risks of bank account fraud.

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6 hours ago, Kosmin said:

This is something which inhibits adoption as a store of value. 

Its a circular argument which amounts to ... it cant be popular until its popular, its like arguing that facebook can never catch on because noone would ever join it because noone is on there yet.

At some point a virtuous cycle will kick in where increased cap causes lower volatility, which will drive increased cap ... etc etc. Like any other net work effect driven thing progress is slow until a critical mass is reached.

Quote

Why do you think there hasn't been any significant buying in the last year?

Why wasnt there in 2014-2015 ?. Again your using a circular argument "noone will buy it because noone is buying it".

Edited by goldbug9999

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6 hours ago, Kosmin said:

* I think it's important to realise that a big reason for the expectation of crypto to take off is that fiat will collapse

Its a bit more nuanced than that, the expectation is that as cypto proves it resilience and money can flow between fiat and crypto with less friction then more and more value will leak into crypto.

Edited by goldbug9999

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32 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Its a circular argument which amounts to ... it cant be popular until its popular, its like arguing that facebook can never catch on because noone would ever join it because noone is on there yet.

At some point a virtuous cycle will kick in where increased cap causes lower volatility, which will drive increased cap ... etc etc. Like any other net work effect driven thing progress is slow until a critical mass is reached.

Why wasnt there in 2014-2015 ?. Again your using a circular argument "noone will buy it because noone is buying it".

I think we have got to that stage again in the Bitcoin cycle my friend where those that don't want to believe just wont, ever, just like 2014/15.  Then when we next pass the last all time high they will all disappear and a new batch will be on saying it's a bubble will crash etc etc. 

Nothing lost, nothing gained. For me I am very curious where we will be in 5 years time and I can access my SIPP pension tax free as I have over 1 bitcoin and several hundred etherium in their now, add to my 2014 stash. 

Hopefully I shall enjoy looking back at the 2017/18 posts as I do with the 2013/14/15 ones.

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55 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Its a circular argument which amounts to ... it cant be popular until its popular, its like arguing that facebook can never catch on because noone would ever join it because noone is on there yet.

Once several of your friends were on facebook, there was some value for you to use facebook. Even if none of your friends were on facebook, the cost (a small amount of your time) to setting up a profile was minimal. Say you have 100 friends. If you joined once two of your friends joined and later more joined that's fine. If you waited until they all used facebook, then several years later only 80 of them still have active accounts, you haven't really lost 20% of anything. But the price at which you bought bitcoin matters.

We are not debating the possibility that bitcoin ever trades. That already happened when someone bought a pizza. I am trying to understand and explain why bitcoin isn't catching on with many people who manage serious amounts of money. If you don't agree with mine, how would you explain it? Jiltedjen and others (perhaps you as well, I don't remember) say it's mad not to allocate a small proportion of wealth, say a few percent, to crypto. This would mean over a $1bn for a handful of people (Bezos, Kochs, Slim, Arab Royals), at least a few dozen financial institutions and sovereign wealth funds, and hundreds of millions for hundreds/thousands of others. If even a few of them were doing this, the price would not have collapsed this year.

 

55 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Why wasnt there in 2014-2015 ?

There was a lot more awareness in 2017!

https://news.bitcoin.com/the-current-crypto-bear-run-will-be-nothing-like-2014/

 

"Back in February of 2014, the Wall Street Journal reported that 76 percent of Americans didn’t know what bitcoin was, and had never even heard of it."

"Six months ago according to a Lend EDU study, 78.5 percent of U.S. residents polled had heard of bitcoin"

"Another recent survey concluded that 88 percent of residents living in Japan have heard about bitcoin. On the global level statistics are just as staggering as cryptocurrencies are trending in Venezuela, Brazil, Colombia, Africa, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia, South Korea"

The author of this article has a different view to me: "It’s been a pretty brutal bear run over the past three months, but it’s likely the market sentiment won’t last near as long. With the number of individuals and businesses with skin in the game, its very probable over the long term cryptocurrencies will continue to rise in value against fiat currencies — even after this tumultuous value cycle."

I'm not sure what businesses he refers to. I'm not aware of any. He doesn't give any evidence on this.

 

55 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Again your using a circular argument "noone will buy it because noone is buying it".

I'm only aware of one circular argument - the argument that bitcoin will boom and crash again, despite having reached saturation point, as people are just waiting for the price to start rising again, and then they will buy (how will the price start rising if people don't buy until the price starts rising?!!!).

I haven't made any circular arguments. If people are buying it as others are buying it, that's not a circular argument. If people aren't buying it, that's not a circular argument.

I don't know why people aren't buying it. Do you?

But I am aware of some characteristics which may put people off. More than that, I don't think there is any sensible reason for people to wait. I made these arguments before and people would say: "They're waiting for a better price." This doesn't make sense. The price is going to hundreds of thousands of dollars in a few years. Who cares if you buy at $20k or $4k? You just buy. Why aren't many serious wealth managers doing this? (Maybe the occasional hedge fund is, but the fall from $20k tells us there aren't many buyers at the moment)

 

Edited by Kosmin

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  • 243 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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      • up 5%



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