Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
NatterJackToad

The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

Recommended Posts

On 28/11/2018 at 09:02, markyh said:

From their factsheet

The certificates provide exposure to the performance of the digital currency bitcoin by synthetically tracking performance of the price of bitcoin (BTC/USD) less a fee.

  • To invest, you need an account, which is obtained through your bank, advisor or online broker.
  • Bitcoin is purchased for money received through the sale of certificates which ensures that the certificates are hedged and structured to follow the price of bitcoin.The certificates are guaranteed by Global Advisors (Jersey) Limited.
  • The Certificate is denominated in SEK thus here will be a foreign exchange exposure between USD and the SEK which could impact (+/-) the market value and final return from the certificates.

 

I bought the SEK version as i'm unsure if the € Euro will exist in 5 years so didn't want to be stuck with certificates denominated in a defunct currency you cant trade. The Swedish Krona like the British Pound £ has a long a pretty stable history behind it.

I like crypto, and have done well out of it, but putting a bitcoin 'tracker' into a SIPP (when ETF's haven't even been approved) sounds like blind faith to me. Apart from bitcoin's huge volatility, I would be worried about those certificates being declared illegal securities. YMMV

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Doesn't matter though, bitcoin is a bearer instrument, if you have the keys you have control.

I was going to say the same thing, comes back to the decade old Bitcoin statement, "No keys, No coins". As soon as you put them on an exchange, or give access to anyone your private keys, you risk total loss of those coins. In my mining op I have to take risk every month as the BTC is either sitting on my Nicehash Wallet or in my Kraken wallet waiting to be sold. But it spends less than 24hrs in Kraken at the end of each week and is sold for € Euros within 1 hr of it arriving on the Kraken exchange. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Quicken said:

I like crypto, and have done well out of it, but putting a bitcoin 'tracker' into a SIPP (when ETF's haven't even been approved) sounds like blind faith to me. Apart from bitcoin's huge volatility, I would be worried about those certificates being declared illegal securities. YMMV

That's the thing with Bitcoin, where will it be declared an illegal security? To be effective it needs to be worldwide and universally agreed. It's a Swedish ETN , and Sweden are very Crypto friendly ; 

The Swedish Tax Agency has given a preliminary ruling on Value Added Tax (VAT) on bitcoins, stating that trade in bitcoins is not subject to Swedish VAT, but is instead subject to the Finansinspektionen (Financial Supervisory Authority) regulations and treated as a currency. The decision has been appealed by the Swedish Tax Authority.[3]:Sweden

The Swedish jurisdiction is in general quite favorable for bitcoin businesses and users as compared to other countries within the EU and the rest of the world. The governmental regulatory and supervisory body Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) have legitimized the fast growing industry by publicly proclaiming bitcoin and other digital currencies as a means of payment. For certain businesses interacting with fiat (mainly exchanges) the current regulation dictates that an application for approval/license must be filed and all the AML/CTF and KYC regulations applicable to more traditional financial service providers must be followed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Quicken said:

but putting a bitcoin 'tracker' into a SIPP (when ETF's haven't even been approved) 

America is not "The World".  Bitcoin ETN are legal is Sweden as long as the follow KYC regulations.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, markyh said:

America is not "The World".  Bitcoin ETN are legal is Sweden as long as the follow KYC regulations.

Fair enough, but you don't live in Sweden, so the UK tax laws apply. Also your SIPP is a UK product. UK Gov could make that product illegal in a crypto crack down. Best of luck.

Q

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Quicken said:

Fair enough, but you don't live in Sweden, so the UK tax laws apply. Also your SIPP is a UK product. UK Gov could make that product illegal in a crypto crack down. Best of luck.

Q

I think there is more chance of having the state pension means tested so huge tax free gains in a SIPP exclude them from have to pay me a state pension.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is so weird to see how much crypto has changed since its inception. My understanding was it would enable you to travel around to different countries or websites. Your spending money stored away, avoiding exchange fees, and not tracked. Once transferred into bitcoin you new it had a value, at least you were unlikely to be caught short. Miners recovering bitcoin after its spent, paid a tip for their trouble.

Mining is now a company thing, scaled up away from the people to saturation point. The other day my brother walked through the door.

"yeah bro I am into Ripple"

Blew my mind, love my bro but he usually can be a bit sketchy. Turns out he was gambling with its value on the smartphone. So the joke is instead of a store of wealth it is volatile enough to turn it into a coin flipping game. No doubt if people are buying in and out it extends the volatility. Such a shame.

Edited by pathfinder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, pathfinder said:

It is so weird to see how much crypto has changed since its inception. My understanding was it would enable you to travel around to different countries or websites. Your spending money stored away, avoiding exchange fees, and not tracked. Once transferred into bitcoin you new it had a value, at least you were unlikely to be caught short. Miners recovering bitcoin after its spent, paid a tip for their trouble.

Mining is now a company thing, scaled up away from the people to saturation point. The other day my brother walked through the door.

"yeah bro I am into Ripple"

Blew my mind, love my bro but he usually can be a bit sketchy. Turns out he was gambling with its value on the smartphone. So the joke is instead of a store of wealth it is volatile enough to turn it into a coin flipping game. No doubt if people are buying in and out it extends the volatility. Such a shame.

The price needs to go a lot higher before the market cap is of a size it cant easily be moved without serious chedder involved. the last 18 months some one only had to move 1000 bitcoin from one address to another and the market jumped or dropped on speculation it was a whale doing something on an exchange. Now if 1000 bitcoin was a $Triliion then yes that would be a BIG thing!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never bought into the concept of Bitcoin being the future to take over from FIAT in any way, shape or form, without governments behind it forget it.. It has however taught me to pile into any bubble for a short time rather than argue its a bubble - there is money to be had from irrational thinking.

I'm not saying Bitcoin made no sense, as a like-for-like token offering anonymity I see how it could have worked. As the holder of the worlds future wealth and power, absolutely no chance. 

The irrational thinking blew it out of all proportion. Still made a lot more sense than some bubbles - I mean Beanie Babies??? How the heck did anyone ever think they were a valuable commodity without being on drugs. Again...money was there to be made. 

What will the next bubble be, there's a question??? 

 

Edited by wsn03

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tomandlu said:

Well, if nothing else, BC has taught me, with practical demonstrations, why an inherently deflationary currency will never work.

Deflationary can be OK (see the history of gold), but hyper-deflationary is a problem.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

It has however taught me to pile into any bubble for a short time rather than argue its a bubble - there is money to be had from irrational thinking.

Beware survivorship bias. There are plenty of bubbles you could have lost money in. Also how do you know if it's too late or when to get out?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Deflationary can be OK (see the history of gold), but hyper-deflationary is a problem.

To some extent, I agree*, but BC has hyper-deflation built-in (should it ever gain wider acceptance).

* more accurately, and imho, your statement could be read as "a stable store of wealth can be ok"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, tomandlu said:

To some extent, I agree*, but BC has hyper-deflation built-in (should it ever gain wider acceptance).

* more accurately, and imho, your statement could be read as "a stable store of wealth can be ok"

Bitcoin supply is still inflating at the moment

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, dannyf said:

Bitcoin supply is still inflating at the moment

Where did I say it wasn't? In similar news, the number of David Hockney paintings is inflating at the moment.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Drat said:

Whats the difference between inflation and a currency losing 80% of its value in a year?

If the currency lost 80% of it's value due to inflation, then nothing? And, from the punter's pov, also nothing (I think). However, inflation generally refers to an increase in the quantity of money w/o a corresponding increase in 'stuff', and currency can lose its value for other reasons. Indeed, inflation is generally triggered by devaluation caused by something else. Inflation - starting up the printing presses - is the response.

Edited by tomandlu

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why do you suggest bitcoin is deflationary tomandlu? I see it as deceasingly inflationary, going to an asymptote that should be neither inflationary nor deflationary (static quantity), but will in fairness be moderately deflationary due to lost keys etc.

Q

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Quicken said:

Why do you suggest bitcoin is deflationary tomandlu? I see it as deceasingly inflationary, going to an asymptote that should be neither inflationary nor deflationary (static quantity), but will in fairness be moderately deflationary due to lost keys etc.

Q

If it becomes a widely used currency, I don't see how it can be anything but deflationary.

1. The final technical quantity of BC is fixed, but wider usage will spread that fixed number of BC far and wide - that's (very) deflationary.
2. Given point 1, the actual quantity will trend towards zero as BC are lost. That's also deflationary.

More to the point, why (and how) do you think it might not be deflationary? And also more to the point, the whole justification for HODL is that BC is inherently deflationary (if adopted).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I see inflation (with reference to a currency) as inflation of the money supply. You clearly see it differently. Just different definitions.

EDIT: I mean monetary inflation (which seems to me to make most sense when talking about a currency, digital or otherwise):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_inflation

 

Edited by Quicken

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, Quicken said:

I see it as deceasingly inflationary, going to an asymptote that should be neither inflationary nor deflationary (static quantity), but will in fairness be moderately deflationary due to lost keys etc.

It would be moderately deflationary if it ever became stable and widely used as a currency. But if it became widely used as a currency there would be a rapid increase in value. That is why I called it hyper-deflationary. If the price increases from 4k to 1m how are businesses going to cope with pricing in bitcoin, especially long term contracts like employment? They won't and that's why one reason why it can't emerge as a widely used currency.

Perhaps the fact that it isn't twintopt is more fundamental.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, wsn03 said:

I never bought into the concept of Bitcoin being the future to take over from FIAT in any way, shape or form, without governments behind it forget it.. It has however taught me to pile into any bubble for a short time rather than argue its a bubble - there is money to be had from irrational thinking.

I'm not saying Bitcoin made no sense, as a like-for-like token offering anonymity I see how it could have worked. As the holder of the worlds future wealth and power, absolutely no chance. 

The irrational thinking blew it out of all proportion. Still made a lot more sense than some bubbles - I mean Beanie Babies??? How the heck did anyone ever think they were a valuable commodity without being on drugs. Again...money was there to be made. 

What will the next bubble be, there's a question??? 

 

You'll never make any profits with that philosophy. The way to make stupendous bubble gains is to buy when the asset is getting flushed down the toilet and people think it's game over. That's right about now for bitcoin. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 349 The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.