Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
NatterJackToad

The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Well it surprises me that you view it the same now as you did then.

Strikes me that the same ideas or principles that a person would hold to take a position are orthogonal to those which would persuade them to exit it. With all the consequences that leads to.

Anyway, you are to be congratulated on your foresight in taking the position. Good luck.

 

 

Like many here we have seen this before, 2010, 2011, 2013/14 and now 2017/18. The previuos charts at their time look exactly as huge and scary as the current one but when you look left on the weekly chart now they look almost flat with hardly any peaks or troughs.  This is what I believe 2017/18 will look like on the weekly chart in 10 years time. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, markyh said:

I think the vast majority of Bitcoin holders still are not losing money, so have no reason to sell, like me. If it dropped back to $1500 I wouldn't sell, when mine only cost me $400 or less. And as I only have an original net investment of £2k which I am prepared to lose 100%, and a current £7.5k investment which is my SIPP and not needed for 20 years, why would I worry. 

So far only those who bought in August 2017 or later are at real a loss, anyone Q2 2017 is still ok, Q1 2017 doing rather well for under 2 year investment and 2016 or before doing very very well, including those who bought in the 2013 peak who are still sitting on a 4 x gain for a 5 year investment period. 

I lost £1k investment in my SIPP years back when Yell.com delisted, and recently another £1k when Carillion collapsed and when belly up. I don't panic easily and buy and hold for the long term, good or bad. I also have a policy of never selling an investment while in the red unless its a forced buyout / takeover and will happily wait for a recovery or bust.

You don't believe like many in 2011, 2014 and before refuse to believe it can ever surpass it's previous high, and it always has sofar in a 3 year timeframe.

Past performance is not always a guide to future performance.

Also 50% of the S&P 500 won't exist by 2030, as business changes all the time. So i don't see why BTC woukd stay dominent for ever. i suspect in 2 years XRP will be The King.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, markyh said:

It's also still a fact you can take all the worlds supercomputers, of every nation, all the NSA's computing power, and they in total are tiny compared to the global hashpower of the Bitcoin network.

But hashing is purely integer and that was not really the point of Supercomputers mainly solving DPFP problems. That said, as more are picking up AI workloads, the Integer performs is now be being raised on Supercomputers, some are using ASICs, other GPUs.

Also the BTC Hash rate figure is somewhat inflated, as a lot mine different coins and also there is a lot of wasteful duplication.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Looks like BTC is about to fall below $4k

Now $3995

 

........$3988

And falling.

 

.........$3981

At this rate the whole BTC network will be off by tomorrow.

 

......$3975

 

....$3962

 

....$3955

....$3950

....$3947

....$3941

....$3928

....$3921

...$3912

.... $3894

............ohhhh a small bounce $3901

oooops......$3795 for a moment

Edited by Mikhail Liebenstein

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 25/03/2018 at 15:34, jiltedjen said:

Bitcoin looks like it’s holding good support at $8,500

bitcoin has always had higher lows after bubbles. part of its growth style. 

not really comparable to alt coin pump and dumps. Which go back to zero. Right now it looks pretty normal, surges higher then finds its new (higher low) level. it’s done it several times before. Current the charts look very normal for bitcoin, certainly never see $5,000 again. 

 not a terrible time to be thinking of buying. 

Hi

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

Well I did convert my remaining BTC into XRP.

I dunno. That chart doesn't look much better either. Not to mention it's a fraud and a security. 

BTC down 80% from all time high

XRP down 90% 

lol

Edited by narco

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I heard $4k is very significant, because bitcoin advocates keen to point out bitcoin has reached new highs after an 80% pull back in the past.  Below $4k would be more than 80%, so it would be untested water in terms of it could ever reach a new high again.

 

Also at below $4k, almost no one can mine profitably. 

Edited by reddog

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, narco said:

I dunno. That chart doesn't look much better either. Not to mention it's a fraud and a security. 

BTC down 80% from all time high

XRP down 90% 

lol

Thing is, XRP only hit that in Dec 2017 for a short period. A look at a 12 month view shows a different story.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, reddog said:

I heard $4k is very significant, because bitcoin advocates keen to point out bitcoin has reached new highs after an 80% pull back in the past.  Below $4k would be more than 80%, so it would be untested water in terms of it could ever reach a new high again.

 

Also at below $4k, almost no one can mine profitably. 

Yep, True everywhere apart from the really cheap Chinese operations with subsididized power in sheds. Get to $3300, and the network will collapse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, reddog said:

Also at below $4k, almost no one can mine profitably. 

Exactly why I'm only interesting in picking up none POW coins such as Nano and Skycoin. Both are instant, fully scalable, zero fees and will do well in the next cycle. 

Took a little nibble tonight on both and surprised to see Skycoin arrive in the wallet faster than Nano. 

What wasn't surprising was the torture of dealing with Bitcoin to get hold of them. 🤬

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, reddog said:

I heard $4k is very significant, because bitcoin advocates keen to point out bitcoin has reached new highs after an 80% pull back in the past.  Below $4k would be more than 80%, so it would be untested water in terms of it could ever reach a new high again.

You mean... it's different this time?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

I have an overarching concern that bitcoin is "the first". If you look at the first of anything we don't use the same now.

Bitcoin is the culmination of decades of research and experimentation with different approaches to digital cash just like the internet was the culmination of half a century of telecoms. Also like many on here you are viewing things purely from a technical point of view and not an economic one. Inventing a non state controlled non asset backed currency is a lot different to a social media website or whatever other inappropriate technology obsolescence story people use.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, reddog said:

I heard $4k is very significant, because bitcoin advocates keen to point out bitcoin has reached new highs after an 80% pull back in the past.  Below $4k would be more than 80%, so it would be untested water in terms of it could ever reach a new high again.

 

Also at below $4k, almost no one can mine profitably. 

You can profitably mine at any price level once the difficulty has adjusted.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, markyh said:

I think the vast majority of Bitcoin holders still are not losing money, so have no reason to sell, like me. If it dropped back to $1500 I wouldn't sell, when mine only cost me $400 or less.

I dont see that what you payed for it is relevant, all that matters is what you think it will be worth in the future vs now. There are only two reasons to sell - you either think you can time the market and buy lower or you think it has no future. Selling simply because it crossed some arbitrary price you happened to have bought it for make no sense at all.

Edited by goldbug9999

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

 Selling simply because it crossed some arbitrary price you happened to have bought it for make no sense at all.

1)  You are 100% correct, it doesnt make any sense at all and nobody who is logical would consider it.

2)  The vast majority of people are not logical.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Bitcoin is the culmination of decades of research and experimentation with different approaches to digital cash just like the internet was the culmination of half a century of telecoms. Also like many on here you are viewing things purely from a technical point of view and not an economic one. Inventing a non state controlled non asset backed currency is a lot different to a social media website or whatever other inappropriate technology obsolescence story people use.

Bitcoin sounds great on paper until you actually use it. 

Also just charted LTC, XRP and ETH and people need to brace themselves for a 100% retrace of the entire 2017 bull. Final support levels but maybe not the final lows:

XRP - $0.06

ETH - $15.00

LTC - $6.00

Edited by narco

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, reddog said:

I heard $4k is very significant, because bitcoin advocates keen to point out bitcoin has reached new highs after an 80% pull back in the past.  Below $4k would be more than 80%, so it would be untested water in terms of it could ever reach a new high again.

 

Also at below $4k, almost no one can mine profitably. 

80% was about the high to low in the last cycle 2013/2015.  Either the in 2010 or 2011 cycle, cant remember which,  bitcoin dropped 94% from high to low which was the worst to date.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The big question is whether $1,200 is going to hold. That was the 2013 spike high and the final level of support.

If it doesn't hold then it's likely the entire crypto market is going to go through many years of sideways action, if not a decade to begin a new bull run.

Edited by narco

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, markyh said:

80% was about the high to low in the last cycle 2013/2015.  Either the in 2010 or 2011 cycle, cant remember which,  bitcoin dropped 94% from high to low which was the worst to date.

In 2011 it went from $1 to $31 (July) to $2 (December). It should be obvious that a fall of the same proportion is more serious in a bigger market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 245 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.