The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

[Quicken]

4 hours ago, wsn03 said:

Really? I never thought about it but it could be a possibility. I thought a set of computer digits unregulated and not-backed by any government could easily become the most valuable commodity in the world. A bubble eh? Hmm. 

Governments don't back fiat currencies. They debase them via inflation.

[doomed]

1 hour ago, wsn03 said:

Ive been learning about XRP today...it might have legs as an investment. Im thinking about it

Be careful to figure out the difference between Ripple the company vs Ripple the currency.

[markyh]

4 hours ago, dragging boot straps said:

Bloodbath on my bitcoin but my XRP is holding very strong. Real partnerships with banks and financial institutions. Ripple are one of the developers working on the open source and decentralised ledger. They are turning into a corporate behemoth!

funny on my Blockfolio list BTC and XRP are currently both down 8% today? I guess BTC maybe went down more at some point.

[oracle]

18 hours ago, doomed said:

Jiltedjen made me sell ?

I got a feeling that jiltedjen is one of crypto-sniper's premium bods.

his lot were doing a lot of charting on this and called it pretty well..uncle frank says expect a number with a 3 in front of it fairly soon.

he did TA on ethereum as well and made a call for $137(at $200),looks very realistic to me .

[narco]

I think we're seeing the death of POW in general.These coins are not fit for purpose, slow, expensive, resource hungry and require constant hardware upgrades. They will not make the grade in the next bull cycle which is probably 5 - 10 years away. 

There's no question that crypto will be back one day but just don't expect crap like Bitcoin, Bcash, Litecoin or Ethereum to be leading the marketcap next time around. 

BTC looks to be particularly ripe for a 95% - 99% plus collapse. $1,250 is the last stand. 

 

Edited November 20, 2018 by narco

[wsn03]

2 hours ago, doomed said:

Be careful to figure out the difference between Ripple the company vs Ripple the currency.

Good tip..thank you

[dragging boot straps]

1 hour ago, wsn03 said:

Good tip..thank you

Yes make sure you check out the other companies using the xrp ledger. Coil for example also. 

Ripple are just the leading developer of the open source and decentralised network right now. 

In q3 more xrp was sold to financial institutions than ever so expect them to have a hand in things too at some point. 

[narco]

XRP is a very well dressed ponzi. Just ask yourself why coins that were designed for banks sold en masse to the general public?

It's not only a security but a giant centralised fraud. 

This is probably the riskiest of all tokens out there as it could end up going to zero and nodes end up being shut down. 

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

5 minutes ago, narco said:

XRP is a very well dressed ponzi. Just ask yourself why coins that were designed for banks sold en masse to the general public?

It's not only a security but a giant centralised fraud. 

This is probably the riskiest of all tokens out there as it could end up going to zero and nodes end up being shut down. 

Let's see what is left standing once BTC hits $10

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

12 hours ago, reddog said:

Another sharp sell off, is this thing going below $4k?

Soon.

And if $BTC hits $3000 or less, most of the miners will switch off their systems. Just a few with an increased share of the remaining unmined BTC and the cheapest power in China will be left!!

BTC = Bitcoin China

[narco]

Technically BTC is as ugly as you can get. It's just broken down from a 6 month consolidation while nowhere near oversold on the monthly.

$1,250 will arrive faster than people could possibly imagine, but the ultimate low is possibly a lot lower. 

[wsn03]

1 hour ago, dragging boot straps said:

Yes make sure you check out the other companies using the xrp ledger. Coil for example also. 

Ripple are just the leading developer of the open source and decentralised network right now. 

In q3 more xrp was sold to financial institutions than ever so expect them to have a hand in things too at some point. 

Even SAP are in it, hence im rather curious 

[wsn03]

1 hour ago, narco said:

XRP is a very well dressed ponzi. Just ask yourself why coins that were designed for banks sold en masse to the general public?

It's not only a security but a giant centralised fraud. 

This is probably the riskiest of all tokens out there as it could end up going to zero and nodes end up being shut down. 

Hmm, im interested in this opinion too. I was only looking at it because it has so much business buy in...but then again so did Tulips.

I don't live in fantasy land, I'll look at everything like I did whilst sizing up Bitcoin. Any more thoughts welcome

[goldbug9999]

On 19/11/2018 at 22:44, narco said:

Additionally Bitcoin remains the most over valued, slowest and highest transaction fee coin on the market cap.

Well lets look at your track record shall we ... tell me again about how nano is going to be the coin that everyone uses to move money between exchanges ...

Bitcoin is only coin that I am confident is going to survive the next 5 years. Next 3-6 months is probably the last chance to buy bitcoin relatively cheaply. 

 

[longgone]

14 hours ago, Kosmin said:

 

Pump and dump typically occurs in a small company, where it's possible to generate a significant increase in trading (because there is very low trading volume). Therefore it's possible for a boiler room to manipulate the price. This wouldn't work in a bigger market, or where several groups were trying to pump and dump. What if you were pumping whilst someone else was dumping?! Bitcoin is too big, but smaller crypto-assets can be pumped and dumped.

Pump was done by the media, i can`t remember the last time i heard anything about bitcoin.  Infact once when that guy chucked his hard disk away with millions on it and when the price went through the roof. now nothing at all. 

[Drat]

6 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

 

Bitcoin is only coin that I am confident is going to survive the next 5 years. Next 3-6 months is probably the last chance to buy bitcoin relatively cheaply. 

 

The reason I think bitcoin will eventually fade is this:

For someone to make a profit of $1000 by trading bitcoin, several people have to make a combined loss of $1000. It can run as a Ponzi for a while but eventually someone has to pay.

Now, when bitcoin was positioned as a digital currency I got it. Ten people would happily make a loss of $100 each if it allowed them to buy things in the internet with bitcoin that they could not buy with $, allowing one person to make a profit of $1000.

Now however bitcoin has been positioned as a digital asset.  People will only make a loss by accident if they gamble on the price going up and lose. Last year a lot of people gambled and many lost or are holding losses allowing others to cash out with big gains. Now I struggle to see who else will invest, after seeing such falls in the value and so many people getting burnt. Assets need some people to see an intrinsic value in them to allow others to make an investment gain. Maybe over time people will forget and greed will take hold again, people can be irrational, but I doubt it.

On top of this, Bitcoin takes such a huge amount of energy to run, that value is also taken out of the system to pay for energy costs, so some people have to lose money for the price to just stand still.

If bitcoin can get back to being seen as a digital currency then it can survive and even thrive. If not, another coin, or maybe coins that run much more leaner, will take its place. Or maybe people will see bitcoin as a way of getting money out of a country in an emergency, in which case they are happy to take a loss? That is gambling on some country imploding 

To all those that got in early and cashed out near the peak, congratulations. To all those who jumped in too late and got burned, sorry guys, take it as a life lesson and don't forget it is only money. To all those who are still holding with gains, good luck, I hope you don't see your nest eggs dwindle away.

[markyh]

14 hours ago, oracle said:

I got a feeling that jiltedjen is one of crypto-sniper's premium bods.

his lot were doing a lot of charting on this and called it pretty well..uncle frank says expect a number with a 3 in front of it fairly soon.

he did TA on ethereum as well and made a call for $137(at $200),looks very realistic to me .

Basically we are back to 2014 situation again, sell the mining rigs, park the crypto and see if it recovers 3 years from peak in late 2020. If you got in early in 2013 like many you have seen big paper losses from 2017 peak but still have 10 x + reals gains from 2013/14 if you sold up now. 

So I like Jiltedjen will just play the waiting game again. If come late 2020 there has been no recovery and no price rise past the previous peak then will be the time to consider cashing out. There are not that many Crypto holders worldwide compared to the people in the world, and I don't know the figure but I doubt it's a huge amount of people in actual numbers who are sitting on real losses who bought in 2017 and haven't liquidised yet. 

Be interesting to find out how many Bitcoin where "bought" on all worldwide exchanges in 2017 (especially how many where bought in just Q4 2017) , how many Bitcoin where mined in total in 2017, and how many bitcoin have been Sold and mined in 2018?

Anyone know where you could get this data? 

[dragging boot straps]

13 hours ago, narco said:

XRP is a very well dressed ponzi. Just ask yourself why coins that were designed for banks sold en masse to the general public?

It's not only a security but a giant centralised fraud. 

This is probably the riskiest of all tokens out there as it could end up going to zero and nodes end up being shut down. 

XRP is not a coin but the transportation device on a settlement super highway. 

XRP is not a security as who is it secured against? Every company using the XRP ledger could blow up but I could still use it. That's decentralised. 

The nodes are decentralised and anyone can run one. 

You need to read more. Start here www.fudbingo.com

[lombardo]

A 22 thousand transaction backlog. What a joke Bitcoin is. 

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/unconfirmed-transactions

[lombardo]

On 13/11/2018 at 13:11, goldbug9999 said:

XRP will have its lunch eaten by dollar backed stable coins - if your using a token purely for temporarily liquidity (the alleged USP of XRP) then you dont need a "cypto" with limited supply, you just need an easy-to-transact dollar substitute. Why would you risk using a non state backed currency if the one thing it provides is of no benefit ?.

https://www.icoexaminer.com/ico-news/goldman-sachs-investing-into-110m-poloniex-stable-coin/

https://www.newsbtc.com/2018/09/10/winklevoss-twins-launch-stable-coin-receive-green-light-from-regulator/

 

You make an interesting point but doesn't XRP have the advantage of being centralised and fast? 

[lombardo]

On 19/11/2018 at 21:28, jiltedjen said:

but of course bitcoin can consume any decent code it wants with many more devs and capital behind it. 

You assume that Bitcoin can adapt - but you don't know this for sure. Have you ever thought that the architecture of Bitcoin may not allow for those changes?

E.g. Nano is completely different from Bitcoin. It would be like converting a fleet of planes into a fleet of ships. Now I don't think Nano is the solution but I just wanted to use it as an example.

Above all the BItcoin devs have a certain vision about how they want it to develop and they are not open to other solutions. They chose LN and have closed the doors to other solutions. 

Stats on the contributors: https://www.coingecko.com/en?view=developer

Crypto is still young and it wont die if Bitcoin fails.

It may be an alt or it may even be a world government crypto coin that takes over. We simply don't know the future.

Edited November 21, 2018 by lombardo

[Kosmin]

6 hours ago, Drat said:

The reason I think bitcoin will eventually fade is this:

For someone to make a profit of $1000 by trading bitcoin, several people have to make a combined loss of $1000. It can run as a Ponzi for a while but eventually someone has to pay.

Now, when bitcoin was positioned as a digital currency I got it. Ten people would happily make a loss of $100 each if it allowed them to buy things in the internet with bitcoin that they could not buy with $, allowing one person to make a profit of $1000.

First of all, it is possible for someone to make a gain without someone else making a loss: Anyone who sells bitcoin for more than it cost to mine or initially buy makes a capital gain. The buyer does not make a loss. This is the same with property, equities, gold and other assets and securities. There can be unlimited growth in the nominal value of these things. There is a sense in which buyers have lost by not buying earlier, but this is not limited to bitcoin.

For example if you kept money in sterling in a current account several years ago you have lost purchasing power. If you put it in equities, gold or bitcoin you would have made a paper capital gain in most cases. That doesn't mean these are Ponzi schemes.

Bitcoin could never really be a currency. It could only be an asset. The fixed number (in fact, slightly declining, as a small proportion get lost, or even destroyed) means the value will always be expected to increase. Additionally there has been a rapid increase in price as demand has increased. These are both reasons why people will not use it for transactions if they can avoid it.

 

 

 

6 hours ago, Drat said:

On top of this, Bitcoin takes such a huge amount of energy to run, that value is also taken out of the system to pay for energy costs, so some people have to lose money for the price to just stand still.

Definitely a good point, which many have mentioned before. I think if the price rises again, people will raise this issue again. I expect many (regulators, central bankers, environmentalists) are just hoping it dwindles on its own.

 

[Kosmin]

36 minutes ago, lombardo said:

A 22 thousand transaction backlog. What a joke Bitcoin is. 

https://www.blockchain.com/btc/unconfirmed-transactions

Just wait until John MacAfee provides the punch line!

[wsn03]

32 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

 

Bitcoin could never really be a currency. It could only be an asset. The fixed number (in fact, slightly declining, as a small proportion get lost, or even destroyed) means the value will always be expected to increase. Additionally there has been a rapid increase in price as demand has increased. These are both reasons why people will not use it for transactions if they can avoid 

Then its a useless asset, you cant do anything with it so how can it have value if you cant use it? Its just a set of digits. You can't even touch it? If you cant spend it whats its point?

[Sour Mash]

3 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

Then its a useless asset, you cant do anything with it so how can it have value if you cant use it? Its just a set of digits. You can't even touch it? If you cant spend it whats its point?

Yes, as I understand it the primary impetus behind bitcoin was that it was to be used as a currency, where inherent value doesn't matter (in fact, it's preferable to have no actual inherent value/use).

Holding it as an 'asset' over the longer term is purely speculation that someone will come along and buy it off you for more money than you paid for it because .....(?).   You could use it as a reliable store of value IF it had become entrenched as a means of currency and was trading at a somewhat stable price but really it has been subject to speculation since its price hit bubble territory a few years ago, which undermines its currency/store of value function IMO.

It could however be useful as a short term store of value if your local fiat currency/ banking system was looking dodgy and you needed to get out of it quickly.  I'm sure there were more than a few Cypriots and Icelandics that were happy to have bought it before their countries' banks hit meltdown stage.