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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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4 minutes ago, evetsm said:

Only in your tiny brain. The world of fiat we have now is infinitely worse. By any measure. Globally

I'm not the only person who thinks there is a chance the world's major currencies will not experience hyperinflation. I might start a poll about it.

 

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9 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

you two should get a room, i hear lenny henry has just left a premier inn in Birmingham early, if you hurry up you can buy the last 2 hours of his stay cheap and maybe the bed will still be warm.

Only if they accept btrash!

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11 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

I'm not the only person who thinks there is a chance the world's major currencies will not experience hyperinflation. I might start a poll about it.

 

Seriously ?! You can't spot the trend :lol: Doofus. Sock puppet

 

IMG_20180403_110446.jpg

Edited by evetsm

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5 minutes ago, evetsm said:

Seriously ?! You can't spot the trend :lol: Doofus. Sock puppet

It doesn't seem to be evident in economic activity. Consumer inflation is only a few percent. If you include asset prices it goes up to more like 10%. Hardly hyperinflation. Why are so many investors and institutions so relaxed about it? When do you expect to see hyperinflation?

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1 minute ago, Kosmin said:

It doesn't seem to be evident in economic activity. Consumer inflation is only a few percent. If you include asset prices it goes up to more like 10%. Hardly hyperinflation. Why are so many investors and institutions so relaxed about it? When do you expect to see hyperinflation?

 When the asset bubbles burst, especially the bond bubble, then we will get hyperinflation. Then all the money will exit the assets markets and will flow into the consumer market. You will be standing knee deep in fiat paper and it won't be worth anything. When will this happen ? Look at the dollar purchasing power chart above, are we nearer to zero or 100% ? Come on give it your best shot !

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49 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

this crap goes wildly off topic while the coinage dies, it soon changes when the markets start to rise, might as well be on advfn.

I think this is on topic really. A lot of people think bitcoin is going to revolutionise monetary systems, but they haven't explained how. I'm trying to find out if they are mistaken or just bad at expressing their understanding.

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7 minutes ago, evetsm said:

Look at the dollar purchasing power chart above, are we nearer to zero or 100% ? Come on give it your best shot !

It's not going to reach zero you moron!

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25 minutes ago, evetsm said:

Seriously ?! You can't spot the trend :lol: Doofus. Sock puppet

 

IMG_20180403_110446.jpg

The trend is fairly low inflation since the Korean War and still lower inflation since the mid 1980s. The question is whether that is likely to change.

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http://www.businessinsider.com/hyperinflation-still-more-than-a-monetary-phenomenon-2012-8?IR=T

 

One of the bigger myths in the world of economics and finance remains the cause of hyperinflation. As I've highlighted many times over the years, hyperinflation is more than just a monetary phenomenon (and misunderstanding this led to many incorrect hyperinflation predictions in the USA in recent years). In fact, the monetary explosion is almost always the result of some other rare or extreme exogenous factor. My original conclusions on this found that hyperinflations tended to occur around the follow events:

Collapse in production. Rampant government corruption. Loss of a war. Regime change or regime collapse. Ceding of monetary sovereignty generally via a pegged currency or foreign denominated debt.

These events usually lead to a collapse in the tax system or expansion in deficits that appear like the cause of the hyperinflation when the reality is that the debt increase is always the result of some rare or extreme exogenous event. And let's be clear - when we say "rare" we mean really rare. As in wars that destroy countries, regime changes that shift entire countries, corruption that destroys an economy, ceding of monetary sovereignty in the use of a currency peg or foreign debts, or a collapse in production.

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1 minute ago, evetsm said:

 When the asset bubbles burst, especially the bond bubble, then we will get hyperinflation. Then all the money will exit the assets markets and will flow into the consumer market. You will be standing knee deep in fiat paper and it won't be worth anything. When will this happen ? Look at the dollar purchasing power chart above, are we nearer to zero or 100% ? Come on give it your best shot !

That chart shows the USD lost most of its purchasing power prior to 1920. The ride since then has been pretty flat, all things considered. If anything the threat to global prosperity is now an acute dollar shortage rather than a hyperinflation. Dollar repatriation leading to a liquidity drought in credit derivatives and synthetic repo in the shadow banking system much like 2008.

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The moderator/class monitor/diaper changer has stepped in. Probably knows as much as kosmin.  Time to leave this forum to the sock puppets. It's been a laugh a minute :lol:

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13 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

That chart shows the USD lost most of its purchasing power prior to 1920. The ride since then has been pretty flat, all things considered. If anything the threat to global prosperity is now an acute dollar shortage rather than a hyperinflation. Dollar repatriation leading to a liquidity drought in credit derivatives and synthetic repo in the shadow banking system much like 2008.

The apparent shortage is due to all money flowing to the bond market. The consumer prices are the wrong place to look. That consumer hyperinflation will come after the bond market crashes. The general complacency is misplaced. Hyperinflation will come down like a ton of bricks. The bond bubble is 38 years old, you are mistaking that for a everything is OK. You have been fooled.

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It's not possible to have a crash without utter complacency. That's what we are seeing. Look at the vix, it's dead. Until it isn't. When this crashes it will be epic. Hyperinflation.

Leading economist at the time. Irving Fischer in 1929 just before the market crashed : the market has reached "a permanently high plateau".

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2 hours ago, Craig_ said:

This thread is a complete carcrash. I'd imagine that two of the key attributes you need to be a successful investor are an open mind and an ability to take opinions on board and critically appraise them.

Your thinking old time assets. Cypto is different, you buy in super early, like 3-4 years before it s gets even remotely popular (2013/14 or before) and just HODL, and ignore the FUD to force you to sell and wild price swings. Working for me! Thousands of percent up still.

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Just now, markyh said:

Your thinking old time assets. Cypto is different, you buy in super early, like 3-4 years before it s gets even remotely popular (2013/14 or before) and just HODL, and ignore the FUD to force you to sell and wild price swings. Working for me! Thousands of percent up still.

You obviously did well to buy in 2014 or earlier. Hats off to you and the many other contributors on this thread who did so.

But it's not being thousands of percent up which allows you to hold. That is irrational thinking. It doesn't matter if you bought at $10 or $10,000. The decision to buy, sell or hold should be based on your perception of the future, not the past. Without transaction costs if it makes sense to hold it would make sense for someone else to buy. This irrational thinking may be working for you now, but it won't necessarily always be so.

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2 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

You obviously did well to buy in 2014 or earlier. Hats off to you and the many other contributors on this thread who did so.

But it's not being thousands of percent up which allows you to hold. That is irrational thinking. It doesn't matter if you bought at $10 or $10,000. The decision to buy, sell or hold should be based on your perception of the future, not the past. Without transaction costs if it makes sense to hold it would make sense for someone else to buy. This irrational thinking may be working for you now, but it won't necessarily always be so.

I will be selling 50% @ £60k -100k a BTC within the next 10 years or less. Just to clear the remaining mortgage, Unless the mortgage company accept BTC by then, then I will just pay them 3 BTC.

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1 hour ago, markyh said:

I will be selling 50% @ £60k -100k a BTC within the next 10 years or less. Just to clear the remaining mortgage, Unless the mortgage company accept BTC by then, then I will just pay them 3 BTC.

The biggest risk for Bitcoin is that it gets superseded by a better coin. It's pretty obvious there are far better alternatives out there.  We're already seeing signs Ethereum will be seriously challenged by NEO and EOS. 

If the crypto market made any logical sense, Bitcoin should be trading for pennies rather than £100k

We'll see over the next few years if it continues to be propped up after we see fiat gateways open up to better coins. 

Edited by narco

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15 minutes ago, narco said:

The biggest risk for Bitcoin is that it gets superseded by a better coin. It's pretty obvious there are far better alternatives out there.  We're already seeing signs Ethereum will be seriously challenged by NEO and EOS. 

If the crypto market made any logical sense, Bitcoin should be trading for pennies rather than £100k

We'll see over the next few years if it continues to be propped up after we see fiat gateways open up to better coins. 

They may be a better one, there may be a faster one, but if it isn't limited to 21 million coins and decentralised and secure via POW, it wont appeal so wont have the same value. 

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16 minutes ago, narco said:

The biggest risk for Bitcoin is that it gets superseded by a better coin. It's pretty obvious there are far better alternatives out there.  We're already seeing signs Ethereum will be seriously challenged by NEO and EOS. 

If the crypto market made any logical sense, Bitcoin should be trading for pennies rather than £100k

We'll see over the next few years if it continues to be propped up after we see fiat gateways open up to better coins. 

Bear in mind path-dependence. VHS is inferior to Betamax and QWERTY keyobards aren't as good as others, but they prevailed. People may stick with bitcoin even if they don't think its best, as they expect others to stick with it.

Also, the more better alternatives there are, the harder it may be for one of them to displace bitcoin, as it's harder for people to co-ordinate on one alternative coin.

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1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

Bear in mind path-dependence. VHS is inferior to Betamax and QWERTY keyobards aren't as good as others, but they prevailed. People may stick with bitcoin even if they don't think its best, as they expect others to stick with it.

Also, the more better alternatives there are, the harder it may be for one of them to displace bitcoin, as it's harder for people to co-ordinate on one alternative coin.

 

As far as I can see, the USP for bitcoin is that it got 'brand awareness' first and everyone presumes that the crypto market is (a) going to succeed as a popular replacement for currency and (b) that Bitcoin with be the Google/ Facebook/ Amazon of crypto as a result of being the early leader.

 Hmm,  Altavista and Lycos used to be pretty big in search, Myspace and Bebo were very popular early on and I bought a ton of stuff from Play.com little more than a decade ago - and it's a big stretch to assume that there will be mass acceptance of any independent crypto as a means of monetary transaction.  I could see a state-backed digital currency taking off though simply because of the power of law compelling it to be legal tender or suchlike.

Most of the amazing recent gains in the crypto market generally have been down to pure speculation and people looking to get rich quick ... they aren't 'proof' that crypto is going anywhere.  It could happen of course but to hear people here speaking like it's a done deal and basically swallowing the kool-aid like property rampers did is pretty disheartening.

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

 

Most of the amazing recent gains in the crypto market generally have been down to pure speculation and people looking to get rich quick ... they aren't 'proof' that crypto is going anywhere.  It could happen of course but to hear people here speaking like it's a done deal and basically swallowing the kool-aid like property rampers did is pretty disheartening.

I bet if I could be bothered somewhere in this thread in the Q2 2015 posts someone else wrote exactly the same paragraph about the rise and fall from $50 to $1000 to $200 and those that said one day it will be over $10000. 

History tells us they were wrong, very wrong.  Happy for anyone to sit on the sidelines and watch. Just don't bitch and moan if I use the evil proceeds of by Crypto investments to buy several houses outright as BTL, no leverage, and you or someone you knows has to pay rent!

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17 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

bitcoin might not act like gold 2.0 in this cycle or the next, but when it constantly out performs everything else for 20 years it will become the ultimate value store.

the current corrupt systems won’t be reversed quickly, but at least its end has started. 

People wont speculate in houses anymore. shares will be prices fairly.

 

 

2 minutes ago, markyh said:

I bet if I could be bothered somewhere in this thread in the Q2 2015 posts someone else wrote exactly the same paragraph about the rise and fall from $50 to $1000 to $200 and those that said one day it will be over $10000. 

History tells us they were wrong, very wrong.  Happy for anyone to sit on the sidelines and watch. Just don't bitch and moan if I use the evil proceeds of by Crypto investments to buy several houses outright as BTL, no leverage, and you or someone you knows has to pay rent!

 

Under fiat money, some people exploit some other people. If bitcoin replaces fiat money it will be the other way around.

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34 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

As far as I can see, the USP for bitcoin is that it got 'brand awareness' first and everyone presumes that the crypto market is going to succeed as a popular replacement for currency

Very few people believe this. For one thing, the proportion of people who own bitcoin and the proportion of wealth allocated to bitcoin is small. Secondly, not all holders are expecting it to succeed long term, but appreciate in the short term. They think they can sell to someone else for a profit before the price falls.

 

37 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

Most of the amazing recent gains in the crypto market generally have been down to pure speculation and people looking to get rich quick ... they aren't 'proof' that crypto is going anywhere.

The demand which pushed the price above $10,000 seems to have been speculative. It is not clear how much of the demand below that level is from people who are prepared to hold for the long term. It could continue to fluctuate around the $7,000 level or fall further.

40 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

It could happen of course but to hear people here speaking like it's a done deal and basically swallowing the kool-aid like property rampers did is pretty disheartening.

I think it couldn't happen, because there does not appear to be a mechanism by which it can displace fiat currency. As long as governments determine what currency you must use to pay taxes, this gives value to this currency and it will be widely demanded.

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20 minutes ago, markyh said:

I bet if I could be bothered somewhere in this thread in the Q2 2015 posts someone else wrote exactly the same paragraph about the rise and fall from $50 to $1000 to $200 and those that said one day it will be over $10000. 

History tells us they were wrong, very wrong.  Happy for anyone to sit on the sidelines and watch. Just don't bitch and moan if I use the evil proceeds of by Crypto investments to buy several houses outright as BTL, no leverage, and you or someone you knows has to pay rent!

But that would rely on the assumption that Bitcoin going up in price equates to it ‘going anywhere’. The post you replied to literally states that an increase in price does not equate to that so it is that point that you need to refute. Nobody said that Bitcoin had never gone up price either previously or recently.

As for the BTL stuff... jeeeesus.

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