evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 In a deflation, investment liquidity collapses down Exter's inverted pyramid, and stocks will get liquidated. Sound money , including Bitcoin IMO,will be left standing. Maybe the only thing left standing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, evetsm said: And so the best risk-reward now must be in sound money IMO. Which looks like fiat currency at the moment until we reach approx $1,300 on BTC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) CEO-coin is not sound money. Any coin that has a CEO or committee or a company is a private business, ie. a centralised coin, and if you look at Exter's pyramid , private businesses will be among the first to get liquidated Edited April 1, 2018 by evetsm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, narco said: Which looks like fiat currency at the moment until we reach approx $1,300 on BTC. Two can play at the zoom-in , zoom-out game:. So far bitcoin over the long term has been the best store of value ever seen. ie sound money. Still up 1000% in little over the past year. Beating you over the head with facts is like stealing candy from a kid. It's unfair : Edited April 1, 2018 by evetsm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) Actually, looking at the all time Bitcoin chart, the price can fall to $2500 and we would still be good to go. Not a problem. At that level maybe no alts will still be around ? Edited April 1, 2018 by evetsm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, evetsm said: Two can play at the zoom-in , zoom-out game:. So far bitcoin over the long term has been the best store of value ever seen. ie sound money. Still up 1000% in little over the past year. Beating you over the head with facts is like stealing candy from a kid. It's unfair : Well that depends when you happen to have gotten in. For those who got in at over $10k and probably those over $5k it's not going to be a store of value over the next few years, possibly even a decade. What matters is timing both entries and exits no matter what bubble you're investing in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 2 minutes ago, narco said: Well that depends when you happen to have gotten in. For those who got in at over $10k and probably those over $5k it's not going to be a store of value over the next few years, possibly even a decade. What matters is timing both entries and exits no matter what bubble you're investing in. of course. But, sound money is not day-trading or even intermediate term trading. Sound money is money that can be saved for retirement. We shall see. CEO-coin and you cannot be even certain your funds don't get frozen(XRP), double spent/counterfeited(ETH) or diluted(just about all of them) tomorrow. Edited April 1, 2018 by evetsm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 16 minutes ago, evetsm said: Actually, looking at the all time Bitcoin chart, the price can fall to $2500 and we would still be good to go. Not a problem. At that level maybe no alts will still be around ? I agree, probably a good buying opp but with the expectation it will be a long road until 20k is reached again. Most Alts & tokens will be in the graveyard, either due to lack of mining support or abandoned projects. These will eventually will be delisted from exchanges. I think crypto is done for here. As for the bigger Alts, there's support on Litecoin at around $8, Ethereum around $60 and XRP at about $0.06. That would be pretty catastrophic for some, but that's why most people get burnt badly in bubbles. Even I got slightly sucked into the hype, thinking we might get another final push even though the charts were a screaming sell.. Edited April 1, 2018 by narco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 The bitcoin network has been down something ridiculous like 2 hours(planned outage) in 9 years ! Without a single doublespend or hack on the chain. It is better than any network ever. Nothing else comes close. That alone has got to be worth something ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, evetsm said: The bitcoin network has been down something ridiculous like 2 hours(planned outage) in 9 years ! Without a single doublespend or hack on the chain. It is better than any network ever. Nothing else comes close. That alone has got to be worth something ? You can't argue from a security aspect but that comes at the expense of slow transfers, slow throughput, high transaction fees and insane electricity usage. Also, sound money doesn't go up 10,000% and then drop 95%. There's no question crypto in 2017 was the greatest bubbles we'll ever see. People will look back at 2017 in years to come in complete disbelief as to how ridiculous that mania was. Edited April 1, 2018 by narco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, evetsm said: If you have deflation , you may as well have savings in sound money. You get increased purchasing power. When the stocks' value/principle tanked in the '30's and the dividend rose (the stock market in aggregate behaves like a bond, net present value of discounted future companys' earnings in aggregate) then you still have to hold for some time to reach breakeven. It will be some time before 1953 after the '29 crash but not an insignificant amount of time. With money in the bank, you don't lose a penny of principle and you gain purchasing power and a dividend(interest) from day 1. Stocks are not always good. The are usually good, but I am expecting a 1930's stye bust and probably a lot worse , because rates have been falling for 38 years, you think this can keep going forever ? A 38 year bond bull has never ever happened before in history. Do you feel lucky ? And so the best risk-reward now must be in sound money IMO. In 1929 it took seven years to break even. Are you aware of a worse time to invest? (To be fair, you probably would have done worse investing in the Nikkei on 29th December 1989. But if we look at sensibly diversified global portfolios I expect the break even period would actually be shorter than seven years and the 5% real return would be fairly reliable). Bitcoin didn't exist back then obviously. If you timed it well gold would have given a better return than stocks during the bear years, but if we are considering a normal investing life (say investing in a 45 period between 1885 to 1930 or 1925 to 1970) you would have done best with a large proportion in equities. The crash would not have been enough to prevent anyone earning a good long term return*. So even when stocks are bad for several (maximum seven it seems) years, they are still better over a few decades. That's my point. Can you find any evidence to contradict this? What is the longest period cash or gold exceeds the total return from equities? * People lost money in three ways during the crash and Depression: 1) Speculating on credit: Many people had exposure of hundreds or perhaps thousands of percent, so got completely wiped out 2) Had money in the bank and the bank failed 3) Lost their job or business because customers had lost their source of income Bitcoin is not yet sound money. Rather it has some characteristics of sound money and has some chance of becoming sound money in the future. Bitcoin could outperform equities in the long term (several decades - obviously too soon to say). But what might happen if other asset prices plunge? What happens if this accompanied by a recession? A lot of people who lose their jobs will be forced to sell bitcoin in order to pay their bills. It is conceivable that people who see their investments plummeting will sell shares etc. and buy bitcoin. But I am sceptical because people tend to become more risk averse after suffering losses and bitcoin is likely to still be very volatile when the next crash comes. So I don't think there will be a lot of bitcoin buying after a crash. What about the people who are heavily invested it Bitcoin? They might see this as a good opportunity to take advantage of the house price crash. Again, reasons to sell rather than buy Bitcoin. It just seems to me that if we experience the worst asset price crash ever Bitcoin will surely be caught up in it. It might hold up better than other assets, if a lot of people are not forced to sell. But it could do worse. Equities and property do tend to overshoot in a crash, becoming cheap. But at some point the yield makes it attractive and buyers return. Bitcoin does not have the same mechanism, so it's harder to say when it's cheap or expensive. As the price of bitcoin soared people did not generally conclude it was overpriced compared to gold, but that it was replacing gold. If it fell relative to gold during a crash/recession would people conclude it's getting cheap, or that gold is a more reliable safe haven? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 1 hour ago, evetsm said: Two can play at the zoom-in , zoom-out game:. So far bitcoin over the long term has been the best store of value ever seen. ie sound money. Still up 1000% in little over the past year. It cannot be a good store of value if it often falls sharply. You could argue that it has the best risk-reward payoff, or the expected return is higher than any other asset. I think there is so much uncertainty surrounding it (basically the future of bitcoin depends on the expectations formed by millions of people and how they interact) that you can't quantify the risks or the rewards. People can envisage a price of $1m or $5m though, so if they attach a probability to this outcome it seems a good bet. Couple this with motivated reasoning ("I'd like bitcoin to succeed, because I'd like a new sound money which is superior to gold and I like a revolutionised financial system without banks and bubbles and I'd like to be rich! So I'll think of reasons why it will succeed and dismiss reasons why it may fail") and it does appear to be better than the alternatives. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 The crypto markets do not perform like anything we've ever seen. Nobody knows how to put any value on these things so they just spike up and then collapse. Bitcoin is no different and $1,300 is absolutely on the menu. If Bitcoin falls under $1,300 then it's not coming back for years, most probably it will get resurrected alongside the next commodity cycle in the late 2030's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 4 hours ago, Kosmin said: It cannot be a good store of value if it often falls sharply. You could argue that it has the best risk-reward payoff, or the expected return is higher than any other asset. I think there is so much uncertainty surrounding it (basically the future of bitcoin depends on the expectations formed by millions of people and how they interact) that you can't quantify the risks or the rewards. People can envisage a price of $1m or $5m though, so if they attach a probability to this outcome it seems a good bet. Couple this with motivated reasoning ("I'd like bitcoin to succeed, because I'd like a new sound money which is superior to gold and I like a revolutionised financial system without banks and bubbles and I'd like to be rich! So I'll think of reasons why it will succeed and dismiss reasons why it may fail") and it does appear to be better than the alternatives. You can quantify sound money : Portable,Divisible, fungible, durable, non inflating, non counterfeitable, relatively scarce. It's better than gold. See the sound money properties.And gold has 3000 years as money. That makes it a good bet imo Better than any alt, better than any fiat. Volatility is due to early adoption Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 19 minutes ago, evetsm said: You can quantify sound money : Portable,Divisible, fungible, durable, non inflating, non counterfeitable, relatively scarce. It's better than gold. See the sound money properties.And gold has 3000 years as money. That makes it a good bet imo Better than any alt, better than any fiat. Volatility is due to early adoption Gold is always accepted and has a 5,000 year history of acceptance. Gold cannot be created, copied or improved upon. It cannot be forked. Bitcoin as a digital currency is limited by design, slow, expensive, none scalable, none private. These issues are inherent and cannot be fixed on chain, meaning there's no guarantee that people will continue to use or accept it if people decide to use a different coin. Bitcoin is a product of the millennial generation where ideas goes viral, where millions of people spend their lives looking at photoshop edits of Kim Kardashian. Where MySpace suddenly vanished overnight and was replaced by Facebook. It's a herd mentality and the herd very easily changes direction. If the millennials decide they don't want Bitcoin and want a faster, free, scalable alternative, Bitcoin can certainly go to it's intrinsic value of near zero in the blink of an eye. I'm not saying it's likely, but the risks are there. Edited April 1, 2018 by narco Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, evetsm said: You can quantify sound money : Portable,Divisible, fungible, durable, non inflating, non counterfeitable, relatively scarce. Those are words, not quantities. You have correctly listed some characteristics which give Bitcoin a probability of becoming money, but you have not quantified the probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 6 minutes ago, narco said: Gold is always accepted and has a 5,000 year history of acceptance. Gold cannot be created, copied or improved upon. It cannot be forked. Bitcoin as a digital currency is limited by design, slow, expensive, none scalable, none private. These issues are inherent and cannot be fixed on chain, meaning there's no guarantee that people will continue to use or accept it if people decide to use a different coin. Bitcoin is a product of the millennial generation where ideas goes viral, where millions of people spend their lives looking at photoshop edits of Kim Kardashian. Where MySpace suddenly vanished overnight and was replaced by Facebook. It's a herd mentality and the herd very often changes direction. If the millenials decide they don't want Bitcoin and want a faster, free, scalable alternative, Bitcoin can certainly go to it's intrinsic value of near zero in the blink of an eye. I'm not saying it's likely but the risks are there. OK so at what level of recovery in bitcoin price will you STFU. Imean if you so sure its doomed then you should find it easy to commit to a price level that proves you wrong. Edited April 1, 2018 by goldbug9999 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said: OK so at what level of recovery in bitcoin price will you STFU. Imean if you so sure its doomed then you should find it easy to commit to a price level that proves you wrong. Bounce at $5,000 and final low at $,1,350. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kosmin said: Those are words, not quantities. You have correctly listed some characteristics which give Bitcoin a probability of becoming money, but you have not quantified the probability. What on earth are you whittering about ? portable-can you transport it easily ? Carry around the world a barrel of oil , a lump of iron, a bar of gold or a bitcoin ? durable - does it last ? Iron rusts away , oil degrades, salt dissolves, bitcoin can be stored on electromagnetic media, paper, etched in stone, etc fungible- each unit is interchangeable, diamonds are each unique, so is oil,so is salt. Bitcoins with coinjoin are fungible Non counterfeitable, non-inflatible - fiat is pure counterfeit inflating money, so potentially are all centrally controlled alts. Bitcoin is absolutely not. Relatively scarce - salt used to be , it is no longer. Nor is oil. Nor are many alts. Bitcoin is absolutely restricted to 21 million and that's it. The probability of each property being attached to bitcoin is 100% Words have meaning. Only your imagination will prevent you understanding their meaning. We can use fools as a foil to illustrate concepts. Edited April 1, 2018 by evetsm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 2 hours ago, narco said: Gold is always accepted and has a 5,000 year history of acceptance. Gold cannot be created, copied or improved upon. It cannot be forked. Bitcoin as a digital currency is limited by design, slow, expensive, none scalable, none private. These issues are inherent and cannot be fixed on chain, meaning there's no guarantee that people will continue to use or accept it if people decide to use a different coin. Bitcoin is a product of the millennial generation where ideas goes viral, where millions of people spend their lives looking at photoshop edits of Kim Kardashian. Where MySpace suddenly vanished overnight and was replaced by Facebook. It's a herd mentality and the herd very easily changes direction. If the millennials decide they don't want Bitcoin and want a faster, free, scalable alternative, Bitcoin can certainly go to it's intrinsic value of near zero in the blink of an eye. I'm not saying it's likely, but the risks are there. What has forked got to do with it ? A fork is a change away from the root. It doesn't change the root. Bitcoin as a digital currency is limited by design, slow, expensive, none scalable, none private. - you repeat this like an autistic, non-savant. Ever heard of the Lightning network, paypal, visa, cash etc.? You can change your bitcoin into any payment system you desire and pay as fast or slow and as cheap or expensive as you wish. Like a savings account being drawn down to top-up up a current account. Bitcoin is the savings account. You serious. You cannot distinguish between myspace and decentralised, soundmoney ? What is intrinsic value ? What someone is prepared to pay for something. No more , no less. Bitcoin has intrinsic value, look at the price quote. Clueless ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 26 minutes ago, evetsm said: What on earth are you whittering about ? portable-can you transport it easily ? Carry around the world a barrel of oil , a lump of iron, a bar of gold or a bitcoin ? durable - does it last ? Iron rusts away , oil degrades, salt dissolves, bitcoin can be stored on electromagnetic media, paper, etched in stone, etc fungible- each unit is interchangeable, diamonds are each unique, so is oil,so is salt. Bitcoins with coinjoin are fungible Non counterfeitable, non-inflatible - fiat is pure counterfeit inflating money, so potentially are all centrally controlled alts. Bitcoin is absolutely not. Relatively scarce - salt used to be , it is no longer. Nor is oil. Nor are many alts. Bitcoin is absolutely restricted to 21 million and that's it. These are the properties of money. Bitcoin satisfies* these but does not function as money. We don't get paid in bitcoin, we don't pay our bills in bitcoin. Things aren't priced in bitcoin. Bitcoin is not money. What do you think is the probability that bitcoin will displace fiat money and gold to fulfil their functions? * Some people argue that it is may not always be scarce, as another bitcoin could be set up in parallel. I think this is a weak argument, because the first-mover advantage and the nature of networks suggests to me that bitcoin will likely remain the number one crypto. But if other people do take this argument seriously it seems to be the kind of reasoning which inhibits adoption somewhat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
narco Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, evetsm said: What has forked got to do with it ? A fork is a change away from the root. It doesn't change the root. Bitcoin as a digital currency is limited by design, slow, expensive, none scalable, none private. - you repeat this like an autistic, non-savant. Ever heard of the Lightning network, paypal, visa, cash etc.? You can change your bitcoin into any payment system you desire and pay as fast or slow and as cheap or expensive as you wish. Like a savings account being drawn down to top-up up a current account. Bitcoin is the savings account. You serious. You cannot distinguish between myspace and decentralised, soundmoney ? What is intrinsic value ? What someone is prepared to pay for something. No more , no less. Bitcoin has intrinsic value, look at the price quote. Clueless ! Bitcoin's forks and replicas are identical to Bitcoin and in most cases are superior. What reason is there for people to use Bitcoin Core over Bitcoin Cash over the long term? Why are service providers removing Bitcoin as a payment option? How often are you spending your Bitcoin for goods or services? The only reason people bought Bitcoin is because the price was going up and they expected to become rich. Nobody is using it as a currency, although I do remember there were places accepting it in 2014. Bitcoin is no different to any other technology platform so the Myspace vs Facebook analogy is correct. Intrinsic value has nothing to do with price. It's to do with it's internal properties and utility which have been proven to be limited in a lot of ways. Your only solution is to slap on additional layers which are yet to be proven. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, narco said: What reason is there for people to use Bitcoin Core over Bitcoin Cash over the long term? well there you have it , a btrash troll A little btrash troll , a sock-puppet popping up as a concerned critic. Except if your arguments were not such bunk, many may have believed you. Doomed ! Btrash : "centralized sock-puppetry" - Satoshi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 1 hour ago, evetsm said: fiat is pure counterfeit inflating money Another feature of fiat money is twintopt (that which is necessary to pay taxes). Government will only accept payment of taxes in its currency. Bitcoin does not fulfil this function and I can't see how it ever will unless government wishes to relinquish control of the money supply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evetsm Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, Kosmin said: These are the properties of money. Bitcoin satisfies* these but does not function as money. We don't get paid in bitcoin, we don't pay our bills in bitcoin. Things aren't priced in bitcoin. Bitcoin is not money. What do you think is the probability that bitcoin will displace fiat money and gold to fulfil their functions? We may not YET be paid in bitcoin. You invest or save in what will be, not what was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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