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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

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3 hours ago, adamLancs said:

It's not really deflationary though, is it? If you've been watching the sector for a while you will notice a bigger picture emerging. The money flows in and out of Bitcoin into new blockchain projects on a continual basis. Those new blockchain projects issue new currency. With the addition of all that new currency, in it's various forms, the overall effect is actually inflationary. It is disguised by the flood of new money entering, but I stand by that statement. However, look at the difference between what is happening in Bitcoin compared to fiat...

Fiat -> People hold GBP, BoE prints GBP, BoE gives GBP to it's "favourite" businesses (ie. through friends, family, backhand deals, unfair subsidies), value of everybody's GBP goes down, pockets of the rich get lined further

Bitcoin -> People hold Bitcoin, Business issues new currency CoinX, people swap Bitcoin for CoinX, value of Bitcoin and value of CoinX rely on success of each other

Bitcoin's version of inflation is multiples more efficient, and is also more democratic as the onus lies with individuals to manage their own risk / reward and make their own vote with their own money. It is a free market for shares without central government interference. The only way for this system to print is to innovate. Any new currency that enters the system has to convince people it is worthy of investment, via a business model.

What you are witnessing is the free market having found a way to take power back from the central bankers, and corruption away from the politicians.

So yes, not many people are spending Bitcoin to buy a burger or for fuel, but it is being moved around. It is flowing, and I would argue it's rise now is due to the rest of the sector being built around and on top of Bitcoin, not in spite of it. And in that sector, somewhere, pathways to spending Bitcoin on ordinary consumption will emerge, along with incentives for doing so. But you have to look at the bigger picture, if you tunnel-vision on Bitcoin you will not see it.

Nail on the head there. I concur with the alt coins. I was wondering why there were only pairs between certain altcoins and bitcoin. But as you say, people are swapping bitcoins for other currencies and back into bitcoin, its pretty clear, and then cashing the gains back into bitcoin.

The other way of spending coin are yet undecided, hence the altcoin market, bitcoin is too inefficient, dash,ccash etc are hoping to grab that market.

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I've already placed an order for a stainless steel edition Ferrari F40 Lol

(JOKE)

Edited by 200p

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3 hours ago, adamLancs said:

Fiat -> People hold GBP, BoE prints GBP, BoE gives GBP to it's "favourite" businesses (ie. through friends, family, backhand deals, unfair subsidies), value of everybody's GBP goes down, pockets of the rich get lined further

Bitcoin -> People hold Bitcoin, Business issues new currency CoinX, people swap Bitcoin for CoinX, value of Bitcoin and value of CoinX rely on success of each other

Bitcoin's version of inflation is multiples more efficient, and is also more democratic as the onus lies with individuals to manage their own risk / reward and make their own vote with their own money. It is a free market for shares without central government interference. The only way for this system to print is to innovate. Any new currency that enters the system has to convince people it is worthy of investment, via a business model.

What you are witnessing is the free market having found a way to take power back from the central bankers, and corruption away from the politicians.

Fiat money has value as it's twintopt (that which is necessary to pay taxes). Could bitcoin supplant this?

 

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Has anyone on here actually spent any yet? When I went to Berlin a few years back, I tried to find a burger place that supposedly accepted them. Lucky I didn't - not quite the legendary 24 million (and counting) dollar bitcoin pizza but it'd certainly have been a £50 one at today's value.

Still i'm tempted, as that (pretty grimy) second hand electronics shop CEX accepts bitcoin online and even in some stores. Might buy a second hand ps3 game or something for 0.001 coins, just for fun.

Also one btc is nearly 2 Oz of Au now! Again, I'd happily swap 0.1 btc for a sov if that was possibly somewhere.

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Strange days for those of us who have been involved for years. I don't know quite what to think. 

For the first time ever I am being asked by friends how to buy ether. Bubble? Well it's all based on speculation so perhaps, yes. Consumers and big business are just starting their involvement now but it's still hard to get crypto and very confusing.  Coinbase falling over this week isn't helping.

The big question is whether ethereum or perhaps ripple will really take on bitcoin. 

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7 hours ago, adamLancs said:

It's not really deflationary though, is it? If you've been watching the sector for a while you will notice a bigger picture emerging. The money flows in and out of Bitcoin into new blockchain projects on a continual basis. Those new blockchain projects issue new currency. With the addition of all that new currency, in it's various forms, the overall effect is actually inflationary. It is disguised by the flood of new money entering, but I stand by that statement. However, look at the difference between what is happening in Bitcoin compared to fiat...

Fiat -> People hold GBP, BoE prints GBP, BoE gives GBP to it's "favourite" businesses (ie. through friends, family, backhand deals, unfair subsidies), value of everybody's GBP goes down, pockets of the rich get lined further

Bitcoin -> People hold Bitcoin, Business issues new currency CoinX, people swap Bitcoin for CoinX, value of Bitcoin and value of CoinX rely on success of each other

Bitcoin's version of inflation is multiples more efficient, and is also more democratic as the onus lies with individuals to manage their own risk / reward and make their own vote with their own money. It is a free market for shares without central government interference. The only way for this system to print is to innovate. Any new currency that enters the system has to convince people it is worthy of investment, via a business model.

What you are witnessing is the free market having found a way to take power back from the central bankers, and corruption away from the politicians.

So yes, not many people are spending Bitcoin to buy a burger or for fuel, but it is being moved around. It is flowing, and I would argue it's rise now is due to the rest of the sector being built around and on top of Bitcoin, not in spite of it. And in that sector, somewhere, pathways to spending Bitcoin on ordinary consumption will emerge, along with incentives for doing so. But you have to look at the bigger picture, if you tunnel-vision on Bitcoin you will not see it.

Thats a great post

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2 hours ago, GTFO said:

Thats a great post

It is and I listened in 2016 to a fascinating radio4 doc about how big finance had employed lots of RandD to build and analyse and harness the power of the blockchain logic and implemented it onto new banking services.

I'm kicking myself for not buying when it was at 150 pounds per coin. I had my finger on the button but something came up. Now I want back in. i do so on my own risk. Absolutely shocked at Ethereum which was a mere stripling when I last checked. I'm in London.

Knowledgeable people: What's the best exchange and wallet for both Bit and Ethereum and how long do you expect the bubble to last?

:unsure:

Edited by Tapori

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5 hours ago, Tapori said:

I'm kicking myself for not buying when it was at 150 pounds per coin. I had my finger on the button but something came up. Now I want back in. i do so on my own risk. Absolutely shocked at Ethereum which was a mere stripling when I last checked. I'm in London.

Knowledgeable people: What's the best exchange and wallet for both Bit and Ethereum and how long do you expect the bubble to last?

:unsure:

Bitstamp.net (BTC), Kraken.com (BTC & ETH & Others), Coinbase.com (BTC & ETH & LTC) all have been around for years now and are pretty solid. Bitfinex recently lost it's banking partner. Coinfloor (BTC) is newer but seems to target UK. Kraken.com, Poloniex.com and Bittrex.com for altcoins.

Without the pain of running a full node you can use what is known as lightweight wallets...

BTC - Electrum Bitcoin Wallet

LTC - Electrum Litecoin Wallet

ETH & ERC20 tokens - myetherwallet.com

You can create your seed offline. This is your key so don't lose it.

There's quite a few mobile wallets now also. Jaxx.io and Exodus.io are popular.

I wouldn't personally like to predict the next top. I remember thinking Bitcoin could shine a light on just how much silly money is in the fiat system if the gates swing open. But perhaps it's also wishful thinking. Buyer beware, the graph is looking pretty exponential atm.

Edited by adamLancs

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12 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

Thinking 5-10 years in the future:

what happens when the next huge bubble comes, coupled with halvings and easier to get money into bitcoin.

Its going to start getting to the point when governments will want to stop people investing soo much into it that it was cause potential financial instability. If a large % of the nation start to put most of their wage packed into bitcoin each month. its just going to keep going up and up.

its going to end up as a titanic bubble, nothing functions like bitcoin. one day its going to cause some serious issues. a lot of people are going to be the new stinking rich sure. but a lot of people are going to loose their shirts. 

I honestly don't know but it does remind me of the early internet. People are still figuring out what a trusted decentralized network means and what they can do with it, that is why there are so many ideas and ICOs and projects entering the fray. And no doubt many of them will fail but...

If you're bored at work, visit coinmarketcap.com and just have a scroll down. Click a coin name and then visit the Website link on the next page. There's literally hundreds of these projects, the difference to 4 years ago is staggering.

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Tin foil hat time:

I don't know whether this has been discussed before on the thread, but any of you considering getting into bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies need to be aware that you and only you are responsible for keeping hold of the secret (the key) that secures your coins. Should you lose the key, no-one is going to be able to help you recover your coins - they are effectively lost forever. Should you store them in a web wallet and defer responsibility to someone else, they are at risk of being stolen. Should you store them using your phone or on your computer, you are vulnerable to hackers stealing the key.

So before you commit large sums of money, you should make sure you have read up extensively on ways to secure and protect your coins. Various options exist. Some randomly-sampled relevant reading:

* Hot versus cold storage: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Cold_storage
* Hardware wallets (specialist gadgets that claim to keep your key safe): https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Hardware_wallet
* Brain wallet: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Brainwallet
* Secure key cold storage (paper burns!): http://cryptosteel.com/

Personally, I wold never commit more than a few hundred pounds to a hot wallet. Anything above this I would keep in a mixture of a hardware wallet and cold-storage using a carefully generated key on a machine w/out internet connection and then wiped (a first-generation raspberry pi is ideal as it doesn't have wifi or bluetooth). The truly paranoid won't even trust a computer to generate the random seed but roll dice as their source of entropy...

Of course, the more securely you store your key, the harder it is to then perform any transactions. If you can trust a hardware device, something like a Trezor (https://trezor.io/) or a Ledger (https://www.ledgerwallet.com/) may help bridge the gap. But not all coins are supported, mostly the big ones.

Good luck!

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Bubble ? A bubble is a mass psychosis buying event that has no economic sustainability. The forex market transactions are worth over $5trillion daily. Day after day. Bitcoin currently worth maybe $1.5bn daily. If bitcoin is to become a major currency/money, it is far, far from in a bubble.

Maybe short term overbought, but maybe not.

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A bubble is when everyone is talking about it. I still get almost no-one talking about bitcoin to me in real life, unless I instigate it. Would be interested to hear whether others hear much talk about it in their circles.

FWIW I reckon it's got the makings of the mother of all bubbles, but it doesn't feel like this is it yet, even though the chart would indicate otherwise.

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With all this talk about anonymity, I was mighty surprised when all three exchanges I wanted to but my first bitcoins at required me to go to ridiculous lengths to prove my identity (I failed with all three, BTW, despite uploading my selfies, my card, my passport and my dick pics).

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Well the exchanges are dealing with fiat, so they have to follow KYC regulations which exist in most countries... you could try localbitcoins.com

Bitcoin is not really anonymous or not yet anyway. Dash, Zcash, Monero and some others offer anonymity but you still have to get money from fiat to crypto to get them.

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To get into cryptocurrency or to get out is remarkably painful. Until you can do it through your bank, it's going to remain that way and that'll be a natural dampener the market.

To hold is safely is remarkably painful, see above.

I daren't comment on bubble or not for the risk of jinxing it.

 

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On 2017-5-5 at 1:17 PM, evetsm said:

"The banks are not buying ethereum, nor do banks control ethereum" . Strange. They seem to be knee deep in the stuff , including developing it. We can squabble over the semantics :

"

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), Intel Corp (INTC.O) and more than two dozen other companies have teamed up to develop standards and technology to make it easier for enterprises to use blockchain code Ethereum in the latest push by large firms to move toward distributed ledger systems.

The Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) will work to enhance the privacy, security and scalability of the Ethereum blockchain, making it better suited to business applications, according to the founding companies, which said they plan to announce the initiative on Tuesday.

Members of the 30-strong group also include Accenture Plc (ACN.N), Banco Santander (SAN.MC), BP Plc (BP.L), Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S), UBS Group AG (UBSG.S), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA.MC), ING Groep NV (INGA.AS), Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK.N) , Thomson Reuters Corp (TRI.TO) and startups ConsenSys and BlockApps. "

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethereum-enterprises-consortium-idUSKBN1662K7?il=0

And yes , ethereum was unilaterally hard-forked to reverse a transaction(or group of transactions) that siphoned off $millions into a private account. A transaction that was legal according to the protocol at the time. IOW if the core doesn't like you doing transactions , for whatever reason and that may be legal,  they will pull the rug from underneath you. Sounds like a banker type feature. Nothing trustless about that.

 

Sorry evetsm, I missed your reply.

The banks aren't buying/controlling ethereum, they're joining an alliance investigating use of the technology in a consortium context. That may or may not provide useful technology for the public chain, it may or may not involve corps using the public chain in some way (checkpointing, tokens), but it's not controlling it in any way. It's partly because they don't want to miss out on something that could be interesting but it's really just about experimentation and developing private ethereum related technology. Source: I know one of the key people responsible for the EEA.

>reverse a transaction(or group of transactions)

Zero transactions were reversed. It had a state change. It's like a one off protocol addition. All the transaction history is intact. Even many of those who I knew who were deeply against it now accept it was the right thing to do, and many hard lessons were learned.

Trustless is a heavily misunderstood concept. I would never expect Bitcoin to do the same because Bitcoin's value proposition is different and it's really important to differentiate between blockchains. Blockchains are also not necessarily 100% immutable, that's a very (very) useful feature but it is not an absolute requirement in all circumstances. That's a myth that even many devs misunderstand. Blockchains (public) are way to have a set of untrusted computers coming to consensus on the veracity of a ledger. We may desire immutability, but I would counter that by saying - if 99% of all bitcoins got stolen in one go for some reason, would you like to keep immutability intact or understand that blockchains have to work for people (users), not for themselves. 

Blockchains change trust points, they are *not* trustless. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have significant trust points around the protocol (and hence developers, miners). However, Ethereum has an additional one of that of the smart contract developer. Early smart contract failures risked trust in the underlying protocol. There is a point where there is too big to fail early in a chain's life. You are also trusting software, your OS, your device. Trust points are everywhere.

There is barely a single person in the entire world, outside of hardcore bitcoiners, who would call recovering $150m to the owners a 'banker' feature. It's a user feature. No bankers got rich. No bankers took a penny. There was a lot of crap about the foundation and devs being highly invested which wasn't true. I know all the top investors and I know that few devs actually had much ether in the first place - because they aren't investor/gambler types. 

>IOW if the core doesn't like you doing transactions , for whatever reason and that may be legal,  they will pull the rug from underneath you.

Lost count of the number of times I've heard this but it's nonsense. If they do that on the ethereum public chain, it would instantly devalue and likely die. More than that, virtually the entire core development team would quit. More than that, it would need them to do the work. More than that, many mining (pow or pos) would fork. Many with public projects would be out of there super fast and would stick to the original chain. 

That said, there *are* experiments now with blockchain governance - dfinity, tezos etc - and on those platforms this concept is legitimised from day 1. To a reasonable extent, these are happening because of the dao or are learning from that experience. It's super interesting.

I've never understood the hate towards ethereum. It's a great exploration of technology and run by a reasonably competent team (I still have security issues). It is not Bitcoin. The dao situation was horrible and messy but using it as a stick to bash ethereum about a year later, when no one even cares except for bashers, when ethereum is clearly popular across the world, is a little foolhardy IMV. I'd urge you to rethink how you're seeing it.

 

Edited by miggy

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3 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

If bitcoin keeps rising at 10% per day, it will be 10,000$ before you know it.

earlier in the thread i said i think this bubble with peak at £12k before popping ($15.5k)

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2 hours ago, adamLancs said:

Well the exchanges are dealing with fiat, so they have to follow KYC regulations which exist in most countries... you could try localbitcoins.com

Bitcoin is not really anonymous or not yet anyway. Dash, Zcash, Monero and some others offer anonymity but you still have to get money from fiat to crypto to get them.

Tried it on localbitcoins with four sellers. Each of them requested photo IDs, hand-written notes and, in some-cases, real-time Skype chat + screen sharing when logged into my bank account. It's much easier to buy crack than bitcoin.

Given such a high barrier of entry, I cannot see this recent surge as anything than a self-inflated bubble. How can there been any additional demand pushing prices up, if even a determined buyer is unable to complete a transaction?

Edited by kibuc

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