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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads


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9 hours ago, Buffer Bear said:

 

@Peter HunSome hold a different view.

 

 

Reeks of jealousy.  @markyhet al are well up.

👍 @ubuntu

@Salty1Wise man.  He holds about 70% of the voting power, which is unusual.  Some banks didn't want to agree to this structure when it became a public company.  Saylor refused to play ball and got his way in the end. Why do we think he is CEO after 24 years+ and with the price crashing by around 80% previously.  Saylor cannot be ousted, it appears.

Whilst I don't understand the ins and outs of business/investments, given his personal wealth $500m, maybe this is his get out clause should it go pear shaped.  His average cost price is in the low $20ks

He didn't design bitcoin.

Look at Central Bank Digital  Currency,  almost the opposite of Bitcoin.

It goes without saying that you are deluded ig you think that the world will give up control of its economies.

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8 hours ago, warpig said:

or maybe this... I can't tell yet.

004z7v3X.png

something like this with an undershoot of fair value then a dead-cat bounce then a long fade to the eventual low over 18-24 months.

Next peak April 2025, hard to tell if it would pass its ATH next time around the stock to flow model is broken, so people may not be expecting a moon-shoot.

My plan is to keep picking up the lows, and pick a gain of say 100% and sell, not going to be greedy. There will be another low after that and another peak in 2028 etc etc

 

Edited by jiltedjen
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2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

China have been banning bitcoin is various guises since 2013 so dont act like this is some sort of revelation.

A 50% attack will be viable soon.

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15 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

We are yet to see the big dead cat bounce bull trap forming, it’s still to early, the final low will be after that in about 18

Anyone reading your predictions should be aware that you call the top literally every week during a bull market, for example you were calling the top mid 2017 when bitcoin was 5-6k.

No saying you are necessarily wrong in this case but people should factor in that historically you are wrong much more often than you are right.

In fairness you did trade one of your relative few correct calls, how much of that was down to pure luck remains to be seen I guess.

Edited by goldbug9999
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27 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

how much of that was down to pure luck remains to be seen I guess.

100% of it is down to luck IMHO. For everybody all of the time that is, including me. The clever decisions are (again IMO), that you invest up to the value that you are willing to lose, diversify your portfolio and so on. For me personally, there's also a rule to sell a good amount when it becomes life changing, not before nor later. I believe JJ sold when that happened and so it was a perfect decision. Lucky, but perfect.

Approaching £20k now which means I will be topping up by 0.5 BTC if it hits. A whole coin added if it reaches £15k.

 

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1 minute ago, Locke said:

How is gold doing?

Gold will perform when it needs to... it's the last bastion of financial security - which is why the central banks stock it. The spot price is not a physical metal price, don't let it set your perception.

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40 minutes ago, Warlord said:

 

 

Saylor and his investors are gonna lose the lot. Just like our Marky and Monsieur

Is Schiff right that MicroStrategy have been buying BTC using leverage? Could end up unwinding spectacularly if so, like one of Elon's rapid unscheduled disassemblies.

I'd say people who have been buying BTC with their savings are in a different boat, they have no liabilities so the value of their position is just what they could sell up for.

Edited by Dorkins
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6 minutes ago, Dorkins said:

Is Schiff right that MicroStrategy have been buying BTC using leverage? Could end up unwinding spectacularly if so, like one of Elon's rapid unscheduled disassemblies.

I'd say people who have been buying BTC with their savings are in a different boat, they have no liabilities so the value of their position is just what they could sell up for.

MicroStrategy have been buying Bitcoin with debt issued, and not to be repaid until several years in the future, after 2 halvings the last $1b.  No leverage involved. As long as their lenders get their 6% interest and capital back in 2028 they will be fine and can just sit on short term losses. 

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8 minutes ago, markyh said:

MicroStrategy have been buying Bitcoin with debt issued, and not to be repaid until several years in the future, after 2 halvings the last $1b.  No leverage involved. As long as their lenders get their 6% interest and capital back in 2028 they will be fine and can just sit on short term losses. 

Interesting, thanks. Sounds like MicroStrategy will still need a way to make the interest payments in the meantime though.

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1 hour ago, warpig said:

Gold will perform when it needs to... it's the last bastion of financial security - which is why the central banks stock it. The spot price is not a physical metal price, don't let it set your perception.

I  know. Predictions of bitcoin's demise are premature

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59 minutes ago, ubuntu said:

@warpigdo you have any understanding & opinions on Wyckoff events patterns playing out?

I've never heard of it... there are tens of thousands/millions of opinions out there... and I'm sure I would have heard about it by now if it was very successful... maybe. I had a quick scan of this, but it would take me days to go through it and probably months to prove its success or failure.

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

I think sometimes people look for explanations for answers they want to be true - that's not very scientific and is probably akin to putting the cart before the horse.

I'll be very surprised if BTC doesn't hit $20K.

Edited by warpig
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