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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads


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2 hours ago, jiltedjen said:

Where is the next largest bitcoin mining country? I’m guessing China was leading, who’s next? America? Iran? India? Korea? 

El Salvador are prepping volcano geothermal sites for use for bitcoin mining. I suspect other countries in the region will do similar.

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6 hours ago, ubuntu said:

 

He's not a million miles away from being under water

Hodl is all well and good for private holders but you'd assume that its tougher for a corporate with sound governance if their treasury materially shrinks

Will be interesting to see what happens if there's much more price weakness

(My suspicion is that the governance at MS isn't great - it strikes me as Saylor very much does what he likes hence turning the company into a leveraged BTC bet... nothing intrinsically wrong with that but has always struck me as odd that he's board agreed to do it)

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5 minutes ago, Salty1 said:

He's not a million miles away from being under water

Hodl is all well and good for private holders but you'd assume that its tougher for a corporate with sound governance if their treasury materially shrinks

Will be interesting to see what happens if there's much more price weakness

(My suspicion is that the governance at MS isn't great - it strikes me as Saylor very much does what he likes hence turning the company into a leveraged BTC bet... nothing intrinsically wrong with that but has always struck me as odd that he's board agreed to do it)

Think of the risks if/when forced to unload. Will scare others to follow his path. Perhaps even until 2028.

equality if he can keep it together (a very tall order) until the next halving he will trail blaze for other fund managers, just depends how the investors see it. Most will probably want out in 18 months time when it’s clear to absolutely everyone (not just me) that this puppy is dead until the next halving, no new ATH this year, or for a few years, better places to put capital. 

the bottom won’t be in until 18 months time. 

Easy to sell BTC as an investment when it’s hitting ATH every day, much harder when it’s been falling for 24 months straight. investors are fickle, they FOMO in at the peaks, lose interest in the lows. 

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26 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Think of the risks if/when forced to unload. Will scare others to follow his path. Perhaps even until 2028.

equality if he can keep it together (a very tall order) until the next halving he will trail blaze for other fund managers, just depends how the investors see it. Most will probably want out in 18 months time when it’s clear to absolutely everyone (not just me) that this puppy is dead until the next halving, no new ATH this year, or for a few years, better places to put capital. 

the bottom won’t be in until 18 months time. 

Easy to sell BTC as an investment when it’s hitting ATH every day, much harder when it’s been falling for 24 months straight. investors are fickle, they FOMO in at the peaks, lose interest in the lows. 

Re the bit in bold - I think unless the price absolutely craters then the recent interest and greater institutional adoption has probably made BTC a much more recognised "viable asset class" for both institutions and individuals.  That in itself wont make people buy if they think it's trending down but it does make me wonder whether once people think the bottom is in and prices next appreciate whether there'll be even more demand.

I'm sitting tight (as usual!).

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31 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Think of the risks if/when forced to unload. Will scare others to follow his path. Perhaps even until 2028.

equality if he can keep it together (a very tall order) until the next halving he will trail blaze for other fund managers, just depends how the investors see it. Most will probably want out in 18 months time when it’s clear to absolutely everyone (not just me) that this puppy is dead until the next halving, no new ATH this year, or for a few years, better places to put capital. 

the bottom won’t be in until 18 months time. 

Easy to sell BTC as an investment when it’s hitting ATH every day, much harder when it’s been falling for 24 months straight. investors are fickle, they FOMO in at the peaks, lose interest in the lows. 

Your view seems to focus on everything else remaining the same... What does BTC do in a monetary crisis? What does the death of the dollar do to BTC? What does it do when the stock or bond markets blows up or rampant stagflation happens? We're just about to face a new Bretton Woods... what the hell does BTC do then? That isn't factored into the STF model... There are so many unknowns...

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16 minutes ago, warpig said:

Your view seems to focus on everything else remaining the same... What does BTC do in a monetary crisis? What does the death of the dollar do to BTC? What does it do when the stock or bond markets blows up or rampant stagflation happens? We're just about to face a new Bretton Woods... what the hell does BTC do then? That isn't factored into the STF model... There are so many unknowns...

Bitcoin is always based on the participants, to get bitcoin you have to understand the users, it is and probably always will be guided by the human condition. The manias, the lows, it’s a free market so there is no-one able to change the rules, so humans just human. 

other factors only influence people to act if they are wanting to act anyway, when the Tesla announcement or PayPal announcement came it was going to be that or anything else at the right time which sent it to all time highs not due to the news, but people wanting an excuse. It’s not the news itself it’s people waiting for an excuse to pile into an appreciating asset. it would of shot upwards on virtually any news at that point, the news and surrounding environment is less than 20% of the market movements, 80% is the inevitable human condition around the halvings. the mania builds. It’s predictable. 

same thing happens on the downside, good news is mostly ignored, just as on the upside bad news is mostly ignored. And bad-news which wouldn’t normally matter in average times  has an outsized effect in bad times. 

We are yet to see the big dead cat bounce bull trap forming, it’s still to early, the final low will be after that in about 18 months time. 

Bitcoin will eventually pass it’s all time high, but the entry point is super important, nothing will break the lull for years unless something totally extra ordinary like the US adding it to its reserves or making it legal tender, that obviously would change things, I mean we had small countries accept bitcoin! that’s massive news, yet still heading down and down, the spirit is broken for now, the bear market is entrenched now. 

Not to mention the likely good of any actual good news being very low compared to the high potential of bad news coming, including potentially large funds possibly having to liquidate.

it’s all good news for patient long term holders, we can feed off the lows, get very low entry points, and wait for the next predictable mania to come. 

I’m still astonished that people are still talking about the stock to flow model, or calling a new ATH this year, I mean what world are these people living in? are they honestly thinking it will? I mean open your eyes 

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18 minutes ago, jiltedjen said:

Bitcoin is always based on the participants, to get bitcoin you have to understand the users, it is and probably always will be guided by the human condition. The manias, the lows, it’s a free market so there is no-one able to change the rules, so humans just human. 

other factors only influence people to act if they are wanting to act anyway, when the Tesla announcement or PayPal announcement came it was going to be that or anything else at the right time which sent it to all time highs not due to the news, but people wanting an excuse. It’s not the news itself it’s people waiting for an excuse to pile into an appreciating asset. it would of shot upwards on virtually any news at that point, the news and surrounding environment is less than 20% of the market movements, 80% is the inevitable human condition around the halvings. the mania builds. It’s predictable. 

same thing happens on the downside, good news is mostly ignored, just as on the upside bad news is mostly ignored. And bad-news which wouldn’t normally matter in average times  has an outsized effect in bad times. 

We are yet to see the big dead cat bounce bull trap forming, it’s still to early, the final low will be after that in about 18 months time. 

Bitcoin will eventually pass it’s all time high, but the entry point is super important, nothing will break the lull for years unless something totally extra ordinary like the US adding it to its reserves or making it legal tender, that obviously would change things, I mean we had small countries accept bitcoin! that’s massive news, yet still heading down and down, the spirit is broken for now, the bear market is entrenched now. 

Not to mention the likely good of any actual good news being very low compared to the high potential of bad news coming, including potentially large funds possibly having to liquidate.

it’s all good news for patient long term holders, we can feed off the lows, get very low entry points, and wait for the next predictable mania to come. 

I’m still astonished that people are still talking about the stock to flow model, or calling a new ATH this year, I mean what world are these people living in? are they honestly thinking it will? I mean open your eyes 

I don't think you answered any of my questions.

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4 minutes ago, warpig said:

I don't think you answered any of my questions.

In short I don’t think external influences have any real bearing on price movements in general. 

there are triggers for already existing demand but that same demand would of come anyway with the next bit of perceived good news in a bull run, and bad news in a bear run. 

Do you want me to list each condition and the likely reaction of bitcoin to them? Like monetary cris etc? like shares crashing? would be a long but if text 

Edited by jiltedjen
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@Peter HunSome hold a different view.

On 20/06/2021 at 13:17, Peter Hun said:

Bitcoin is explicitly designed to be unsuitable as a currency. Its inherent.

 

 

9 hours ago, Warlord said:

I dont need anything Mark..  BTC is crashing (again). I'm not a participant in the market. 

How are your gainz looking now.  BTC is headed for 20k. Still think it's going to a million ? 🙄

Reeks of jealousy.  @markyhet al are well up.

8 hours ago, ubuntu said:

 

👍 @ubuntu

1 hour ago, Salty1 said:

He's not a million miles away from being under water

Hodl is all well and good for private holders but you'd assume that its tougher for a corporate with sound governance if their treasury materially shrinks

Will be interesting to see what happens if there's much more price weakness

(My suspicion is that the governance at MS isn't great - it strikes me as Saylor very much does what he likes hence turning the company into a leveraged BTC bet... nothing intrinsically wrong with that but has always struck me as odd that he's board agreed to do it)

@Salty1Wise man.  He holds about 70% of the voting power, which is unusual.  Some banks didn't want to agree to this structure when it became a public company.  Saylor refused to play ball and got his way in the end. Why do we think he is CEO after 24 years+ and with the price crashing by around 80% previously.  Saylor cannot be ousted, it appears.

Whilst I don't understand the ins and outs of business/investments, given his personal wealth $500m, maybe this is his get out clause should it go pear shaped.  His average cost price is in the low $20ks

Edited by Buffer Bear
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3 minutes ago, Buffer Bear said:

 

@Peter HunSome hold a different view.

 

 

Reeks of jealousy.  @markyhet al are well up.

👍

@Salty1Wise man.  He holds about 70% of the voting power, which is unusual.  Some banks didn't want to agree to this structure when it became a public company.  Saylor refused to play ball and got his way in the end. Why do we think he is CEO after 24 years+ and with the price crashing by around 80% previously.  Saylor cannot be ousted, it appears.

Whilst I don't understand the ins and outs of business/investments, given his personal wealth $500m, maybe this is his get out clause should it go pear shaped.  His average cost price is in the low $20ks

Thanks - that's interesting re the voting rights, I didnt know that.  Does explain a fair bit!

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@Salty1

It may be this one but this is purely from memory.  Regardless, it is a brilliant interview, that much I recall. 😁

Yep, this is the one, from 11:00 mins.  Watch the whole interview.  Negotiation skills = confidence.  This man has some front.

Shares fell from $333 to 0.42c (99.8% fall) and he kept his job as CEO. 💯

Edited by Buffer Bear
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1 hour ago, jiltedjen said:

In short I don’t think external influences have any real bearing on price movements in general. 

there are triggers for already existing demand but that same demand would of come anyway with the next bit of perceived good news in a bull run, and bad news in a bear run. 

Do you want me to list each condition and the likely reaction of bitcoin to them? Like monetary cris etc? like shares crashing? would be a long but if text 

Seems a bit odd you don't think anything could have a positive impact on BTC... for one it's a good escape vehicle out of your native currency... after all that's gold's function too. I was out of the pound during Brexit... it served me proud! BTC will do the same thing... it let's you side step devaluation. We're not the only ones that know that! 

When they usher in the CBDCs, what if there's a 75% haircut during the transition...? What if the banks collapse first (perhaps by design (phoenix out of the ashes)) and people rush to assets to get rid of cash... I can think of so many things that could propel BTC multiples higher, by dragging in fresh meat.

Edited by warpig
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51 minutes ago, warpig said:

Seems a bit odd you don't think anything could have a positive impact on BTC... for one it's a good escape vehicle out of your native currency... after all that's gold's function too. I was out of the pound during Brexit... it served me proud! BTC will do the same thing... it let's you side step devaluation. We're not the only ones that know that! 

When they usher in the CBDCs, what if there's a 75% haircut during the transition...? What if the banks collapse first (perhaps by design (phoenix out of the ashes)) and people rush to assets to get rid of cash... I can think of so many things that could propel BTC multiples higher, by dragging in fresh meat.

👆x💯

Gud summary and aligns with my thinking. I was one looking for an easy escape vehicle out of GBP after the credir crisis when I fell down the Bitcoin rabbit hole in 2013. 

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24 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

👆x💯

Gud summary and aligns with my thinking. I was one looking for an easy escape vehicle out of GBP after the credir crisis when I fell down the Bitcoin rabbit hole in 2013. 

We know a new Bretton Woods is just around the corner with all western countries going to CBDCs. They could easily throw in a devaluation... or a wealth tax as part of the transition... I'm certain the new currency will come with "conditions" attached, I doubt it will be a 1:1 swap... and this new monetary system is coming before the next halving...

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3 minutes ago, Buffer Bear said:

@warpigHow much longer before you jump in?  Check out the red candle. 

I can't base it on time... it's more a factor of price action. I'm looking for $20K, but when it gets there I want to see how the land lies.

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22 minutes ago, warpig said:

We know a new Bretton Woods is just around the corner with all western countries going to CBDCs. They could easily throw in a devaluation... or a wealth tax as part of the transition... I'm certain the new currency will come with "conditions" attached, I doubt it will be a 1:1 swap... and this new monetary system is coming before the next halving...

And they have the option to prevent use of CBDCs for anything the central banks, government, elite do not support, to prevent us saving (CBDC expires) to track our every move.  Nefarious use.  Bad news.  Plan B and Preston Pysh talk about this.

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Just now, warpig said:

I can't base it on time... it's more a factor of price action. I'm looking for $20K, but when it gets there I want to see how the land lies.

Based upon your interpretation of your charts, when is this likely.

I've taught my teen how to place a limit order and she has her own account now. 😁

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13 minutes ago, Buffer Bear said:

And they have the option to prevent use of CBDCs for anything the central banks, government, elite do not support, to prevent us saving (CBDC expires) to track our every move.  Nefarious use.  Bad news.  Plan B and Preston Pysh talk about this.

I think for me BTC is becoming a hedge... a bit of an insurance policy. Doesn't need to pay out, it just needs to be there in case I need it to pay out!

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9 minutes ago, warpig said:

I think for me BTC is becoming a hedge... a bit of an insurance policy. Doesn't need to pay out, it just needs to be there in case I need it to pay out!

I don't disagree given I'm in for the long-term.  Anything extra is a bonus. 😁

 

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29 minutes ago, Buffer Bear said:

Based upon your interpretation of your charts, when is this likely.

I've taught my teen how to place a limit order and she has her own account now. 😁

This is a wild guess... but using the same rate of decline as the last drop, it could be 1st-6th July (red box)

v9943RgK.png

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