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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads


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2 hours ago, PeanutButter said:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jun/19/life-savings-in-crypto-generation-of-amateurs-hooked-on-high-risk-trading

This is the year ordinary people discovered financial markets. Through a heady combination of lockdown-induced ennui, generous economic stimulus packages (on social media, memes make reference to investing your “stimmy cheque”) and the GameStop run, there’s never been so much amateur money sloshing around stock markets, nor such interest in arcane and impenetrable financial jargon. If it feels as if everyone is talking about their stock options and crypto wallets, it’s because they are. And at the vanguard of this new, online-centred investment community are young people, women and minority groups.

Exactly, its a generational transition. This new generation are naïve investors by traditional standards but the ONE thing they do understand is ... fiat debasement and they are investing accordingly, and not in the traditional inflation hedge of PMs but into sexy/meme/tech stocks and crypto.

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1 hour ago, PeanutButter said:

It's gambling. You're selling gambling to people without the critical skills to realise they're being manipulated.

Everyone's an expert in magic money...

The OG's on this thread aint doing to badly, no one has admited to being wiped out, but many of us have been on a loss holding position for at least 2-3 years at least one time, and everyone has nursed paper losses back to health by not panic selling. So far the only ones losing out are those that sold way to early because they couldn't handle the gainz.

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14 minutes ago, markyh said:

The OG's on this thread aint doing to badly, no one has admited to being wiped out, but many of us have been on a loss holding position for at least 2-3 years at least one time, and everyone has nursed paper losses back to health by not panic selling. So far the only ones losing out are those that sold way to early because they couldn't handle the gainz.

+1

People with weak hands will panic sell sooner of later, if they are lucky they sell early and make modest gains, if they are unlucky they sell the dip.

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3 hours ago, scottbeard said:

Let's apply your words to a £50 note:

A £50 note is created when someone in an office in London rings up the printers and says "we need a few more".  It is made of less plastic than a 5p shopping bag, and exists only as a flimsy piece of paper which will be worn out and burned within 5 years.  It has value only because the government says "you must pay your taxes with these, and not other flimsy plastic/cotton strips that say €50 or $50 on them".

Of course they have value - because enough people believe that they do.  For what happens when they stop believing, Google "Weimar".

They have value as long as those people have faith and trust in the institutions that are issuing them , however it's very rare that these pieces of paper ever increase in value or purchasing power . Pointing out some flaws in crypto doesn't equal supporting fiat .

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3 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

 however it's very rare that these pieces of paper ever increase in value or purchasing power

They would if they set a hard limit to issuance, or linked their issuance to a commodity like Gold that did have natural low inflation. 

I your lifetime you will see FIAT currencies with amazing purchasing power and value, backed by Bitcoin. 

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39 minutes ago, Buffer Bear said:

A marvel indeed.

 

This is great news, except i wonder how much longer than 2 weeks it will take to adjust difficulty?  I think the timescale is 2000 blocks to adjust, which is just under 2 weeks normally, 6 x 24 x 14 =2016 blocks in 2 weeks for 10 min blocks. 

Good it's happening in a mini bear market, makes it slower for people to get BTC to exchanges and sell. 

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I want to increase my DCA but I’m holding off for a few months. 

We still have not had a decent dead cat bounce, I think this will take a few weeks or even to form the classic shape. 

After that it’s flat-lining and really gradually drifting lower for ages. I think the lows are a lot harder to call than the peaks, better just to DCA. 

currently my DCA is down something like 10% but with each buy as the price falls it’s bringing my average BTC right down. if the next peak is April 2025 that’s 46 months to DCA between now and then, so even a modest DCA will add up and could mean 100%+ returns 

 

 

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1 hour ago, markyh said:

They would if they set a hard limit to issuance, or linked their issuance to a commodity like Gold that did have natural low inflation. 

Runaway unemployment and the collapse of the global trading system would be the result.

1 hour ago, markyh said:

I your lifetime you will see FIAT currencies with amazing purchasing power and value, backed by Bitcoin.

Blockchain not Bitcoin.

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28 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

 

Blockchain not Bitcoin.

No, CBDC FIAT on Blockchain is FIAT, the best performing economies will have FIAT (As is) backed by Bitcoin, on the Bitcoin blockchain.  You'll just have to suck eggs. Bitcoiner's to inherit the Earth. 

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31 minutes ago, zugzwang said:

Runaway unemployment and the collapse of the global trading system would be the result.

All solved with a war tax and referendum bill. Want to go to War, it has to be passed by a 75% majority in a referendum, and then 100% of citizens have  to pay for it via a war tax as long as the war is ongoing, the % of which will be based on wealth not income, and and advisory level set for the referendum.

Lets then see how many future wars there are.

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1 minute ago, markyh said:

No, CBDC FIAT on Blockchain is FIAT, the best performing economies will have FIAT (As is) backed by Bitcoin, on the Bitcoin blockchain.  You'll just have to suck eggs. Bitcoiner's to inherit the Earth. 

Fiat is what keeps the world turning. Bitcoin and gold trim the velocity.

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8 hours ago, Buffer Bear said:

Thanks! I think the first death cross in 2019 can be explained by fewer institutions were in the BTC market, the second was caused by the pandemic and this one is interesting... 

I'm fascinated by how this unfolds... by rights it should have taken a further tumble last week... but Saylor has been in supporting the price/painting the charts again... and interestingly he moved their BTC into a subsiduary recently to protect MS... and I assume this was in case it fell further! An interesting move for sure.

When I realised the date fell on a weekend, I wondered if that would be a good thing, because the price is in the hands of the HODLers... maybe a lack of movement last week suggests the weak hands have been flushed out of the market already... If I look at ETH or XRP... they are on the ropes and it wouldn't take much to push them below long term support and it's a long way down, I guess they're waiting for BTC to be the pathfinder. If nothing happens by COB Tuesday, I might see that as a positive and consider getting back in... 

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4 hours ago, markyh said:

This is great news, except i wonder how much longer than 2 weeks it will take to adjust difficulty?  I think the timescale is 2000 blocks to adjust, which is just under 2 weeks normally, 6 x 24 x 14 =2016 blocks in 2 weeks for 10 min blocks. 

Good it's happening in a mini bear market, makes it slower for people to get BTC to exchanges and sell. 

I've noticed lots about the mempool being pretty empty, will this have any impact on the difficulty adjustment given the change in China.  Also, re: 'empty' mempool some are linking this not only to the 'bear market' but also an increase in use of the lighting network.  Think that's the right term i.e. layer two payments/channels. @markyh

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5 hours ago, markyh said:

They would if they set a hard limit to issuance, or linked their issuance to a commodity like Gold that did have natural low inflation. 

I your lifetime you will see FIAT currencies with amazing purchasing power and value, backed by Bitcoin. 

If they back the currencies with gold or silver and set a limit to issuance, ironically, this would be the Bitcoin’s killer. The only time they would do this is when it is already too late I.e. hyperinflation.

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1 hour ago, Buffer Bear said:

@warpigwarpig

Thanks... BUT... he's talking shite! 🤪 People will say black is white if it suits them... Experienced traders will sell that pattern, that's the end of it really. The only question is... is how many experienced traders are in the market... and of those... how many are willing to go against the HODLers... BTC is like a religion, there are lots of believers and possibly enough to make a death cross meaningless... maybe!

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