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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads


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2 minutes ago, Peter Hun said:

BTC DOWN 45% from peak

 

And Hex made a new ATH this week, $0.098 , tested again today, $0.0978.  I bought a big bag full 3 weeks ago @ $0.058.  There is always a winner to found anytime in Crypto, you just need to listen and learn. 

Pulsechain launches soon, under a month I reckon, i will be in for £2k on that launch too. As an improved Ethereum Fork could be worth a fair bit in a few years. And will bring with it "copies" of 95% of the ERC20's on Ethereum too, +5000 new coins before the end of the year, lol. 

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Wait 18 months and get it 65% down from peak. Bitcoin is a long game. Or just set a DCA and pick up the lows for the next three years. 

there is no longer the mania or interest to drive it to a new ATH in the short term. the peak has come and gone. 

February 2025 is my best guess of the next peak after the 2024 halving 

and of course alts are going to lose much more than BTC - with a few pump and dumps thrown in also. 

The action will be more with a WSB type action, not so much in bitcoin. 

but 4 years is a long time for monetary policy, real inflation rates etc, imagine all the new HODLs which have been born, the new infrastructure which has been put in place, countries taking it on board, perhaps the next bubble will be the one when big countries take note (getting a position after that peak for 2028) 

it’s a long road but the future is bright. the future is orange. I think the stick to flow model was wildly too optimistic, there is money to made but it can’t just keep reaching for exponentially bigger moons each time. 

even if the stock to flow model is broken it doesn’t mean bitcoin is dead. it just means slightly more realistic gains are to be had. 
 

it may struggle to regain the previous ATH in the next bubble, as it was pretty perfect conditions with loads of people working from home, furlonged etc, the Tesla announcement, PayPal announcement, these are one time shocks in a conducive environment. the countries getting on board is the real interesting thing. 

but there are other factors also, in another 4 or 8 years time millennials will start to get boomers inheritance, and it’s almost certain in the great wealth rotation that bitcoin is going to benefit from that. 

also 2025 is getting very close to the peak of the 18 year super cycle in the general economy, which is 2026 peak, the 2028/2029 peak will be during the next Great Depression/crash in the general economy.

so the next two bubbles will be in two very different backdrops, extreme bullishness in the general economy for the next one, and doom and gloom in the following one. Depends how Bitcoin is seen by then, as a save haven gold 2.0 or a conduit for speculation only! 

I suspect most of us will be along for the ride whatever happens. things that have happened recently would of blown the average Bitcoiners mind back in 2013. 

it was always going to take 50 years for the new gold to become established. 

Edited by jiltedjen
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As of today there are 10507 different crypto currencies listed on coinmarketcap plus others listed elsewhere.

It's all a bit dot.com and I would be surprised if the vast majority don't end up in the digi trash can sooner rather than later.

I do have a small punt on one (not btc) so am not 100% anti crypto but I am extremely sceptical of their value. Bitcoin for example was created by a man nobody has ever met , where coins come into existence by solving a sum nobody needs the answer to and these "coins" exist only in cyberspace as a piece of computer code. I don't see where the value is only that if enough people believe it has value then it does. It reminds me of the story of the Emperors new clothes where only clever people could see the material. The other red flag for me is a digital currency is a bankers wet dream and BTC and the others are paving the way for public acceptance. 

Buyer beware.

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15 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

As of today there are 10507 different crypto currencies listed on coinmarketcap plus others listed elsewhere.

It's all a bit dot.com and I would be surprised if the vast majority don't end up in the digi trash can sooner rather than later.

I do have a small punt on one (not btc) so am not 100% anti crypto but I am extremely sceptical of their value. Bitcoin for example was created by a man nobody has ever met , where coins come into existence by solving a sum nobody needs the answer to and these "coins" exist only in cyberspace as a piece of computer code. I don't see where the value is only that if enough people believe it has value then it does. It reminds me of the story of the Emperors new clothes where only clever people could see the material. The other red flag for me is a digital currency is a bankers wet dream and BTC and the others are paving the way for public acceptance. 

Buyer beware.

+1 agree, good post.

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30 minutes ago, Lucky Larry said:

It's all a bit dot.com and I would be surprised if the vast majority don't end up in the digi trash can sooner rather than later.

99%+ will end up in the bin IMHO, and it could even be 100% in my lifetime. I just hope BTC itself will hit £1m each before then.

Also, I agree with the dotcom analogy. There were some companies, Amazon and Google in particular, who came out of it quite well and I think, and hope, I have one of those two rather than an AOL coin.

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Bitcoin will always be the main value store, there will always be a second coin playing second fiddle, a bit like a gold/silver relationship, probably ETH but it could be anything really. 

calling bitcoin an AOL coin waiting to give way to google is a meme and blatantly wrong. 

the rest are doomed before they even started. Almost all of the funds entering crypto just find their way into bitcoin over time, people go put of their way to set up shiny projects, claim it’s as real good thing, pump it with their own money get people sucked in, then take out their money plus say 100% gain and use that to put it straight into bitcoin, it’s soo lucrative taking money off morons buying alts that there are 1000’s of alts now, more coming live daily, it’s like taking money from children. 

Alts appeal to the short term thinking ‘quick win’ mentality of most people, everyone wants massive gains in short period of time, very few people can think in time-scales more than a year or two, the big money has been made and is still being made by those investing in bitcoin with multi-year time horizons. 

with alts just look at the top 10 coin list over a few months, how much the list changes, it’s mostly just pump and dumps and coins with can never hold a candle or any decent % of market cap compared to bitcoin. the days of the flippening are well behind us now. 

Edited by jiltedjen
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Deathcross seems to indicate the start of the next down leg. could be a good time to sell right now and buy in 2 weeks time, at the very least to get more BTC

seems some of the comments on that post seem to agree that with the death of the STF model it would indicate a weaker bubble next halving (as in % growth, but still a new ATH)

 

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https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jun/19/life-savings-in-crypto-generation-of-amateurs-hooked-on-high-risk-trading

This is the year ordinary people discovered financial markets. Through a heady combination of lockdown-induced ennui, generous economic stimulus packages (on social media, memes make reference to investing your “stimmy cheque”) and the GameStop run, there’s never been so much amateur money sloshing around stock markets, nor such interest in arcane and impenetrable financial jargon. If it feels as if everyone is talking about their stock options and crypto wallets, it’s because they are. And at the vanguard of this new, online-centred investment community are young people, women and minority groups.

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31 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/jun/19/life-savings-in-crypto-generation-of-amateurs-hooked-on-high-risk-trading

This is the year ordinary people discovered financial markets. Through a heady combination of lockdown-induced ennui, generous economic stimulus packages (on social media, memes make reference to investing your “stimmy cheque”) and the GameStop run, there’s never been so much amateur money sloshing around stock markets, nor such interest in arcane and impenetrable financial jargon. If it feels as if everyone is talking about their stock options and crypto wallets, it’s because they are. And at the vanguard of this new, online-centred investment community are young people, women and minority groups.

Excellent, as long as they pump the bags of this middle aged, white, Anglo Saxon, Male Gen-X er, who got in at 2013, all the better, Mwwwwhhhhhhhhaaaaaa. 

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4 hours ago, Lucky Larry said:

am not 100% anti crypto but I am extremely sceptical of their value. Bitcoin for example was created by a man nobody has ever met , where coins come into existence by solving a sum nobody needs the answer to and these "coins" exist only in cyberspace as a piece of computer code. I don't see where the value is only that if enough people believe it has value then it does. 

Let's apply your words to a £50 note:

A £50 note is created when someone in an office in London rings up the printers and says "we need a few more".  It is made of less plastic than a 5p shopping bag, and exists only as a flimsy piece of paper which will be worn out and burned within 5 years.  It has value only because the government says "you must pay your taxes with these, and not other flimsy plastic/cotton strips that say €50 or $50 on them".

Of course they have value - because enough people believe that they do.  For what happens when they stop believing, Google "Weimar".

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4 hours ago, Lucky Larry said:

As of today there are 10507 different crypto currencies listed on coinmarketcap plus others listed elsewhere.

It's all a bit dot.com and I would be surprised if the vast majority don't end up in the digi trash can sooner rather than later.

I do have a small punt on one (not btc) so am not 100% anti crypto but I am extremely sceptical of their value. Bitcoin for example was created by a man nobody has ever met , where coins come into existence by solving a sum nobody needs the answer to and these "coins" exist only in cyberspace as a piece of computer code. I don't see where the value is only that if enough people believe it has value then it does. It reminds me of the story of the Emperors new clothes where only clever people could see the material. The other red flag for me is a digital currency is a bankers wet dream and BTC and the others are paving the way for public acceptance. 

Buyer beware.

And, it's about to get mental, Pulsechain launches in the next 30-90 days, and that is an improved fork of Ethereum with faster block times and much lower Gas fee's by design, so that will be 10508 Crypto's. But................. Pulse being a Fork of Eth will also carry a Fork copy of 95% of every ERC20 Token on Eth too.  So for example, say you have 1000 Chianlink before the fork, after the fork you will own 1000 Chainlink on Eth (E-Link) and 1000 Chainlink on PulseChain (P-Link).  

Huge game theory to play out here. Will most pulse freemiums get dumped? They will start with zero value. Or, will ERC20 holders fed up with huge gas fees , sell their Eth ERC20's and buy more P-ERC20's?  

What about new entrants? Will they clock on they can't trade / swap / stake small amounts (under $500) on Eth as the Gas fees eat more than the cost of the tokens, but they can trade / buy the p-ERC20 as the fees will be pennies. 

The PulseChain launch price will also start low as Eth did, so could have big upside, and E-ERC20's can migrate cross-chain to Pulsechain network if they wish for lower Gas fees. 

Woowzer. It's estimated that PulseChain will create another 5000 new P-ERC20 tokens, meaning by years end their will be 15508 Tokens available. 

It's gonna get interesting for sure!

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Bit brutal reading that guardian article, FOMO investors piling in with little or no understanding, listening to random youtubers, wanting to pay off their mortgages, making some profits, getting sucked in, getting greedy, making massive losses, then locking in their losses. 

even our resident FOMO investors have the brains to hold for the next cycle, turning themselves from FOMO buyers into true HODL’rs 

 

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21 minutes ago, PeanutButter said:

Did you read the article...?

Have now, she made 2 mistakes, and she must have realised it by now. She Bought Bitcoin in November 2020, so somewhere between $13000 and $19000.  She got greedy, sold out (mistake 1) and tried other stuff. and trading (mistake 2) and fooked up.  It cant be lost on her if she had just HODL her Bitcoin as a long term (min 4 year term) she still could be sitting on a 2 x gain now, and never made a loss. 

Next time she just needs to stick with the daddy, in 4 years , she would have a nice stash in FIAT terms. 

Youth, she will learn, takes time to get Crypto diamond Hands, with the right coins. 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, markyh said:

Have now, she made 2 mistakes, and she must have realised it by now. She Bought Bitcoin in November 2020, so somewhere between $13000 and $19000.  She got greedy, sold out (mistake 1) and tried other stuff. and trading (mistake 2) and fooked up.  It cant be lost on her if she had just HODL her Bitcoin as a long term (min 4 year term) she still could be sitting on a 2 x gain now, and never made a loss. 

Next time she just needs to stick with the daddy, in 4 years , she would have a nice stash in FIAT terms. 

Youth, she will learn, takes time to get Crypto diamond Hands, with the right coins. 

It's gambling. You're selling gambling to people without the critical skills to realise they're being manipulated.

Quote

And so far, it’s going well. “I’m guaranteed to make about £1,500 a week indefinitely,” Blake says with confidence. “It’s just overwhelming, because I’ve never had that much money in my life.” The week after we speak, the global cryptocurrency market crashes, driven in part by a crackdown on bitcoin from Chinese regulators.

Quote

Noor’s plan is to hold her existing portfolio for a long time, invest in companies she believes in, and stop checking her investments constantly. In other words, she has become an investor, not a speculator. “I don’t think I’ve cracked it,” she says. “I don’t think anyone can crack it. But the worst thing I ever did was listen to other people who claimed they cracked it.”

Everyone's an expert in magic money...

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