The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

[lombardo]

9 minutes ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

Using a DCA strategy I bought in BTC from 2013 on the way up and down those peaks for a few years and now own a substantial number of Bitcoin. DCA works because you do not know when the market will turn. When I saw the price going down I was actively buying more. My favourite time was the MtGox hack. 

I am an old timer too. I don't think a significant number of people have what it takes to DCA in a downtrend. I know of people that got in near tops and thought BTC was dead forever. 

My main point however is that when prices go crazy like 100x from the bottom, it's time to sell and buy back later. We are very far from that yet. If BTC got to $200k this year I would not buy until it fell a lot.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

8 minutes ago, lombardo said:

I am an old timer too. I don't think a significant number of people have what it takes to DCA in a downtrend. I know of people that got in near tops and thought BTC was dead forever. 

My main point however is that when prices go crazy like 100x from the bottom, it's time to sell and buy back later. We are very far from that yet. If BTC got to $200k this year I would not buy until it fell a lot.

True it does take a certain fortitude and mentality. I basically looked upon the money invested as a bad debt, lost money. But through my learnings I believed (and still do) 100% in the fundamentals. 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

'Fortune favours the brave', if you must. 

[markyh]

2 hours ago, lombardo said:

Actually no. If you bought at $13 in 2013 then great, hold long term. But if you bought at $600 after a a massive bull run you would go underwater for 2 years. It took two more year for the price to get back to $600.

This is especially true for small alts with uncertain futures. Even the likes of XRP are down 66% from over 3 years ago! 

Buying ETH at the start of the bull market in 2017 would cost you $7 but buying in August was about $300. ETH then went onto $1400 followed by a brutal bear market where it fell to $85 dollars!! Do you really want to advice people to go through that? 

I say if you buy late in a bull market, sell at the top and buy back later because most people cannot bear to see a 2 year downtrend.

Thing is everyone thinks they know tops and bottoms, they are rarely correct, meanwhile DAC and holders make the mad gainz. Most buy tops and sell bottoms and give their money to diamond hands, hodl 4 years is the best strategy. 

[scottbeard]

58 minutes ago, markyh said:

Thing is everyone thinks they know tops and bottoms, they are rarely correct, meanwhile DAC and holders make the mad gainz. Most buy tops and sell bottoms and give their money to diamond hands, hodl 4 years is the best strategy. 

Exactly.  Of course ideally you’d sell tops and buy bottoms - but you can’t reliably do that as timing is uncertain.  Hence DCA and HODL is safer - less spectacular returns but less chance of disaster 

[FTB-house-hunter]

So just putting it out there in a purely hypothetical situation...lets say you have made an offer on a house that is accepted, and you have managed to get a 20% discount on the stupid, over inflated EA price.  You have a fairly big deposit but still need a mortgage 4x your income if you sell your ETH bags, or 3x your income if you sell your ETH and BTC bags.  What would you do?  As a side note, this house is perfect for me and everything I ever dreamed off (including a stair lift for when I have bad health days).  It's detached and local to work and my family, so I can see myself in it for decades.  Any advice?

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

27 minutes ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

So just putting it out there in a purely hypothetical situation...lets say you have made an offer on a house that is accepted, and you have managed to get a 20% discount on the stupid, over inflated EA price.  You have a fairly big deposit but still need a mortgage 4x your income if you sell your ETH bags, or 3x your income if you sell your ETH and BTC bags.  What would you do?  As a side note, this house is perfect for me and everything I ever dreamed off (including a stair lift for when I have bad health days).  It's detached and local to work and my family, so I can see myself in it for decades.  Any advice?

My advice? Just don't do a Jilted. Always keep some of your precious Bitcoin and Ethereum in those bags.

Personally I'd only cash out about 10 to 25% of my total holdings IF it was an amazing house. Otherwise just mortage and pay off the full mortgage a few years down the line.

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

https://twitter.com/Blockworks_/status/1426169690771050496?s=20

[FTB-house-hunter]

1 hour ago, MonsieurCopperCrutch said:

My advice? Just don't do a Jilted. Always keep some of your precious Bitcoin and Ethereum in those bags.

Personally I'd only cash out about 10 to 25% of my total holdings IF it was an amazing house. Otherwise just mortage and pay off the full mortgage a few years down the line.

I understand what you are saying and where you are coming from, but if I don't sell my eth, I can't buy the house as I won't get a mortgage due to the smaller deposit.  I have already had a great return from eth.  It's the coin that has put me in the great position I am in now, so crypto really is life changing.  Without it, I would never be able to buy such a house.  My bitcoin on the other hand has provided very little profit (mostly due to adding more satoshi's to my holdings with my CGT last year).

With that being said, I might follow your advice and keep my bit of a bitcoin in the hope it goes to the moon a few years down the line.  It doesn't owe me anything.  Mortgage interest seems very low at the moment (1.2%).  It's just all abit scary borrowing such big amounts as I have never been in debt before.  I was raised to value money (seems people value debt more now) and save up if I want something!

[Frugal Git]

2 hours ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

So just putting it out there in a purely hypothetical situation...lets say you have made an offer on a house that is accepted, and you have managed to get a 20% discount on the stupid, over inflated EA price.  You have a fairly big deposit but still need a mortgage 4x your income if you sell your ETH bags, or 3x your income if you sell your ETH and BTC bags.  What would you do?  As a side note, this house is perfect for me and everything I ever dreamed off (including a stair lift for when I have bad health days).  It's detached and local to work and my family, so I can see myself in it for decades.  Any advice?

I’d get the bigger mortgage.

It’s a risk, but a good one. Worst case is BTC/ETH go to nothing, housing stagnates and interest rates shoot up. At the very least I’d expect your wage to rise in this scenario to compensate.

At best, the ETH/BTC outpace every other asset, inflation accelerates and your debt is inflated away and you hold the apex asset too.  

[Frugal Git]

25 minutes ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

I understand what you are saying and where you are coming from, but if I don't sell my eth, I can't buy the house as I won't get a mortgage due to the smaller deposit.  I have already had a great return from eth.  It's the coin that has put me in the great position I am in now, so crypto really is life changing.  Without it, I would never be able to buy such a house.  My bitcoin on the other hand has provided very little profit (mostly due to adding more satoshi's to my holdings with my CGT last year).

With that being said, I might follow your advice and keep my bit of a bitcoin in the hope it goes to the moon a few years down the line.  It doesn't owe me anything.  Mortgage interest seems very low at the moment (1.2%).  It's just all abit scary borrowing such big amounts as I have never been in debt before.  I was raised to value money (seems people value debt more now) and save up if I want something!

Oh with that extra info, I’d sell some of the BTC and some of the eth. Your previous returns don’t matter imho. Keep it diversified. I have an 70/30 split of btc/eth -I’d rather it was 50/50 but I’m too lazy to do anything about that. 

none of this is financial advice. 

[RodCrosby]

Here comes the second leg....

 

$47.5k

[scottbeard]

3 hours ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

So just putting it out there in a purely hypothetical situation...lets say you have made an offer on a house that is accepted, and you have managed to get a 20% discount on the stupid, over inflated EA price.  You have a fairly big deposit but still need a mortgage 4x your income if you sell your ETH bags, or 3x your income if you sell your ETH and BTC bags.  What would you do?  

What would I personally do?  Probably sell all the ETH and half the BTC.

But I doubt any qualified financial advisors are on this message board...an IFA would ask about your entire financial situation and not just house and crypto.  I have no idea what job, pensions, family situation, potential inheritances, other savings etc etc you have and you should make a decision in the round.

[FTB-house-hunter]

37 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

What would I personally do?  Probably sell all the ETH and half the BTC.

But I doubt any qualified financial advisors are on this message board...an IFA would ask about your entire financial situation and not just house and crypto.  I have no idea what job, pensions, family situation, potential inheritances, other savings etc etc you have and you should make a decision in the round.

Indeed its complicated with many variables that could affect advice, I was just looking for some quick advice.  Just had a bit of a nasty shock though which has thrown a few spanners in the works!  I just realised I don't think I qualify as a first time buyer any more!  My dad passed away not long back and I am due to inherit a third of his 50% share on his property.  It's not been all sorted as the land registry paperwork isn't completed yet, but there goes the FTB ISA bonus and zero SDLT I was counting on

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

10 minutes ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

Indeed its complicated with many variables that could affect advice, I was just looking for some quick advice.  Just had a bit of a nasty shock though which has thrown a few spanners in the works!  I just realised I don't think I qualify as a first time buyer any more!  My dad passed away not long back and I am due to inherit a third of his 50% share on his property.  It's not been all sorted as the land registry paperwork isn't completed yet, but there goes the FTB ISA bonus and zero SDLT I was counting on

TBH I think I'd look for a smaller house and keep the crypto then. It doesn't sound like you have that much crypto although I could be wrong, but if so I'd wait on it for another cycle. Frustrating yes but fortune favours the brave, so the patient will be richly rewarded. 

[MonsieurCopperCrutch]

To clarify my argument:

[goldbug9999]

10 hours ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

Indeed its complicated with many variables that could affect advice, I was just looking for some quick advice.  Just had a bit of a nasty shock though which has thrown a few spanners in the works!  I just realised I don't think I qualify as a first time buyer any more!  My dad passed away not long back and I am due to inherit a third of his 50% share on his property.  It's not been all sorted as the land registry paperwork isn't completed yet, but there goes the FTB ISA bonus and zero SDLT I was counting on

Seems a bit strange to keep the property and have shares in it - why not just do a probate sale and split the cash ?. Surely if you say want cash then that would force a probate sale.

Edited August 14, 2021 by goldbug9999

[scottbeard]

49 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said:

Seems a bit strange to keep the property and have shares in it - why not just do a probate sale and split the cash ?. Surely if you say want cash then that would force a probate sale.

Since he says his late father had only a 50% share I’m guessing mother or stepmother owns the rest and still lives there?

Also if you only own a share in a property that can’t force the sale of the whole thing - you can only sell your share (which of course almost no one would buy unless they already part own it)

[FTB-house-hunter]

39 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Since he says his late father had only a 50% share I’m guessing mother or stepmother owns the rest and still lives there?

Also if you only own a share in a property that can’t force the sale of the whole thing - you can only sell your share (which of course almost no one would buy unless they already part own it)

Bang on, not something I would want to do to my mom either.  It also states in the will, it can't be sold unless mom wants it to be sold.  No chance of the share being bought out by my siblings either.  Oh well, a small bump in the road.

[Frugal Git]

37 minutes ago, FTB-house-hunter said:

Bang on, not something I would want to do to my mom either.  It also states in the will, it can't be sold unless mom wants it to be sold.  No chance of the share being bought out by my siblings either.  Oh well, a small bump in the road.

If they were both your parents, I’m sorry to say but that sounds like that will wasn’t ideal given the new sdlt rules 😢

it would probably have been better to have the house as joint tenants, with your dads share passing and then only when your mum passes away does it get split between you and others. Anyway, hindsight. 

[scottbeard]

30 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

If they were both your parents, I’m sorry to say but that sounds like that will wasn’t ideal given the new sdlt rules 😢

it would probably have been better to have the house as joint tenants, with your dads share passing and then only when your mum passes away does it get split between you and others. Anyway, hindsight. 

If all parties agree you might actually be able to get the will changed to make that happen - speak to a lawyer if interested.

We did this in reverse - My grandma left her house to my mum only, but we got it changed after her death to split it several ways.

[FTB-house-hunter]

2 hours ago, Frugal Git said:

If they were both your parents, I’m sorry to say but that sounds like that will wasn’t ideal given the new sdlt rules 😢

it would probably have been better to have the house as joint tenants, with your dads share passing and then only when your mum passes away does it get split between you and others. Anyway, hindsight. 

As you say, hindsight is a wonderful thing and you live and learn.  It was done as it was, in case my dad ended up in a home due to ill health etc.  I will just bite the bullet I guess and get rid of all my eth, 30% of my other coins and see where things are.  If I need to sell 25% of my btc, so be it.  Thanks all, it's been helpful.

[househunter123]

Thanks all for the advice earlier in the week. Will slowly invest over a period in time, rather than one go and like the idea of 70-20-10 for BTC-Eth-other for now. 

I'm also clearer about the long term idea rather than a short term investment. Glad to see it's been life changing for many, and that it could help out long term with my limited financial goals. I bought a tiny amount of Cardano which is the advice people are giving so let's see how that goes. Still using revolut for now as it's already setup. 

My binance is just waiting for the gbp ban to be lifted as would rather not have several apps .

[cattius]

Get the champagne out, I'm at break even!

 

It's been a hell of a ride so far: i was up about £7k and then down about £8k. I quickly learnt at the start of my crypto journey that buying and selling was only reducing my wallet and that hodling is how its done. I tell you what though, all those roller coaster memes are on the button.

[cattius]

I should add that I started to DCA after each wage for the last 3 months, which has worked out very nicely.