stilgar Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 1 hour ago, warpig said: This could be the top, some are saying that's the case... There is significant resistance above... to buy at this point risks a loss. I know the fundamentals and market interest suggest a much higher price... but I need some proof first. You are always risking a loss though! If you are waiting for a point where there is no risk of a loss then you will continue waiting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stilgar Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 The question is, what is the potential upside and what is the chance of that happening and what is the potential downside and what is the chance of that happening. Then you can decide how risky it is and invest an amount that keeps you within your risk tolerance. Or decide that the downside is greater than the upside and don't invest. Say you think that there is a 40% chance of it going to 1m and a 60% chance of it going to 0 in 5 years. That's a pretty good punt. But unless you have a very high appetite for risk, better not to put the house on it, maybe just the car. This is the situation JJ was in. Maybe he should have kept some but fair enough that he didn't want to put the house on it If you think there is a 40% chance of it going to 120k and a 60% chance of it going 0 then that would be a bad investment so you sit out Personally I think that there is a more than 50% chance of it more than doubling and I have a high appetite for risk so I am all in Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 31 minutes ago, stilgar said: You are always risking a loss though! If you are waiting for a point where there is no risk of a loss then you will continue waiting Agreed... there's never a point where risk is reduced to zero, but there are certainly times when risk is high. After a parabolic rise and resistance forms above the current price, the risk is much higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenelby Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 On 08/12/2020 at 01:59, warpig said: I do like it... I just don't see it as a panacea. I'm only going to buy a fraction of a BTC and some XRP... I see this as a short term investment, hence I'm still waiting for the pullback. If for some reason it doesn't happen, I won't chase the market up. This was at £18K. So just stick to your guns, don’t chase the market up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Lenelby said: This was at £18K. So just stick to your guns, don’t chase the market up My thoughts have evolved since then... this post is months old... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixle Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 32 minutes ago, warpig said: Agreed... there's never a point where risk is reduced to zero, but there are certainly times when risk is high. After a parabolic rise and resistance forms above the current price, the risk is much higher. I don't see how the risk is higher, maybe even the opposite. If the impulse response of a system is to mean-revert, you can expect the next impulse to mean-revert. If the impulse response of a system is a dampened oscillation at a higher level, what would you expect of the next impulse? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lenelby Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, warpig said: My thoughts have evolved since then... this post is months old... But you’re still fixated on price charts not the value proposition. Buy a few quids worth. It will be worth it just to get Monsieur off your back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 15 minutes ago, Mixle said: I don't see how the risk is higher, maybe even the opposite. If the impulse response of a system is to mean-revert, you can expect the next impulse to mean-revert. If the impulse response of a system is a dampened oscillation at a higher level, what would you expect of the next impulse? What makes you think it's from a higher level? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixle Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, warpig said: What makes you think it's from a higher level? Just looking at chart that's where it is now, same price as nearly 3 months ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 13 minutes ago, Lenelby said: But you’re still fixated on price charts not the value proposition. Buy a few quids worth. It will be worth it just to get Monsieur off your back The charts show me the behavior of buyers and sellers... it gives BTC a personality which I partially use to gauge risk. I'm not convinced by the value perspective... but I know others are and I'd like to capitalise on it. That's alright I have broad shoulders! 😎 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
azogar Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 btc mite actually break this arc at last - we shall see Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 1 hour ago, azogar said: btc mite actually break this arc at last - we shall see I will let you into a little secret, there is no Arc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mixle Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 1 hour ago, markyh said: I will let you into a little secret, there is no Arc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 (edited) 5 hours ago, Lenelby said: But you’re still fixated on price charts not the value proposition. Buy a few quids worth. It will be worth it just to get Monsieur off your back 🙂 We got off on the wrong footing when he critised my tried and tested DCA + HODL = FTW strategy but I do honestly like @warpig and enjoy his postings. He just has a different approach, thinking, and appetite for risk than me. 😀 Edited May 7, 2021 by MonsieurCopperCrutch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 (edited) 9 hours ago, warpig said: The chart is just an extra bit of information, it's not all telling. I want to know BTC isn't dead before I sink money into it. I'm not suggesting this is the end, but it could be based on the rhetoric of others. I'm not waiting for a pullback to increaase my profits, I'm looking for a pullback or a breakthrough to confirm the health of BTC. Short term price action (and by short term I mean less than 2 to 3 years) has no baring on bitcoins long term prospects. This is what you fail to grasp, you are trying to interpret noise as signal. Edited May 7, 2021 by goldbug9999 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, Lenelby said: But you’re still fixated on price charts not the value proposition. This x100, bitcoin is the worst market on earth to try to technically trade (mind you I don't believe TA works consistently in anything anywhere). You should be in or out depending on whether you believe in the value proposition or not. It was because I believed in it that I held despite being underwater for 18 months after initially buying. Edited May 7, 2021 by goldbug9999 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 5 hours ago, warpig said: The charts show me the behavior of buyers and sellers... it gives BTC a personality which I partially use to gauge risk. I'm not convinced by the value perspective... but I know others are and I'd like to capitalise on it. That's alright I have broad shoulders! 😎 If you believe that other people will value bitcoin in the long term then you actually DO believe in it because you've just described the very game theory that makes a currency have durable value, just like @dugsbodyclaims to not believe in it but actually does. Its the same with me and gold, I believe in its value because I believe other people will always value it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 5 hours ago, warpig said: The charts show me the behavior of buyers and sellers... On chain analytics as used by people like willy woo give a much better (but still not bullet proof) insight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 (edited) No no-coiners on here can seriously state this isn't bullish news. We also know there has been a significant shift in mood. We hardly blink an eye at news, which less than 5 months ago would have attracted comment / excitement. We know how network effect/exponential growth works...whoosh! Edited May 7, 2021 by Buffer Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 9 hours ago, warpig said: This could be the top, some are saying that's the case... There is significant resistance above... to buy at this point risks a loss. I know the fundamentals and market interest suggest a much higher price... but I need some proof first. @warpigmaybe it's time to put yourself out of misery and accept you will not invest in BTC. 🙄 9 hours ago, warpig said: The chart is just an extra bit of information, it's not all telling. I want to know BTC isn't dead before I sink money into it. I'm not suggesting this is the end, but it could be based on the rhetoric of others. I'm not waiting for a pullback to increaase my profits, I'm looking for a pullback or a breakthrough to confirm the health of BTC. As above...🤔 7 hours ago, warpig said: My thoughts have evolved since then... this post is months old... You do make me smile. 🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said: If you believe that other people will value bitcoin in the long term then you actually DO believe in it because you've just described the very game theory that makes a currency have durable value, just like @dugsbodyclaims to not believe in it but actually does. Its the same with me and gold, I believe in its value because I believe other people will always value it. You just have to believe it has a chance of gaining institutional acceptance and gojng to $1m. I took a largish punt on Tesla because I viewed it as an asymmetric bet, 50/50 whether it went to near 0 or x5. Does that make me a believer or a gambler. My Bitcoin investment is another such punt, could go to near 0 or x20. I still suspect near 0 is the more likely outcome but think there is enough of a chance of x20 to make it worth going along for the ride. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 🤭 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 @warpigMaybe you like tangible things so this is more comfortable investment in BTC? 😉🙂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MonsieurCopperCrutch Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 51 minutes ago, goldbug9999 said: Short term price action (and by short term I mean less than 2 to 3 years) has no baring on bitcoins long term prospects. This is what you fail to grasp, you are trying to interpret noise as signal. This is exactly why DCA + (BTFD if poss) + HODL = FTW I added (BTFD if poss) to my formula for gud mate @Buffer Bear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BufferBear Bitcoin Bull Posted May 7, 2021 Share Posted May 7, 2021 (edited) The Original Thinker... Correct version. Edited May 7, 2021 by Buffer Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.