The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads

[markyh]

2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

I just cant be arsed any more to address the same points as as I was doing 5 years ago. I'm not here to personally tutor someone on half a decade of evolution and development in the space. They can do their own research.

I’ll simplify it for them, by some bitcoin, Hodl for 2 years or six years, sell if you want for a bigger profit than you have ever made on any investment in your life.

Remember 2 simple facts, not every millionaire in the world can own 1 whole  bitcoin, 21 million max, ever. On global adoption owning 0.1 Bitcoin will put in the worlds 1% of the wealthy. This will cost you today £600. The downside is nothing, the upside is life changing. 

[Kosmin]

11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Congratulations on getting pretty much every widely debunked ******** bitcoin fallacy in one paragraph.

What are you talking about? If bitcoin wasn't the first mover, what was?

11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

This is thread has broadly two types of contributors, the cypto enthusiats who have over the coarse of 3-5 years made profits ranging from 10's of K to several million (or so it would seem), and then there ... people like you. At what point are you going to start wondering if your on the right side of the debate ?.

I made a bit of money from bitcoin. I may do so again. I don't think I've ever said the price wouldn't go up. I just maintain it won't become a medium of exchange, it won't stabilise and it won't replace gold, or become digital gold.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Kosmin

[Kosmin]

11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Where did they come from to get us from $3.5k to $8k this year ?. I mean that should not have been possible as "everyone has already heard of bitcoin".

$8k is a long way below the all time high. If there were aggregate new buyers, we would probably be seeing a new high.

Everybody with money who manages and isn't very risk averse has heard of bitcoin. People with no money, or who allow others to manage their money or who are very risk averse aren't relevant. It is conceivable that some people will become converts in this cycle, but probably not enough to go much higher.

[Kosmin]

11 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

This is thread has broadly two types of contributors, the cypto enthusiats who have over the coarse of 3-5 years made profits ranging from 10's of K to several million (or so it would seem), and then there ... people like you.

This implies that you are like the typical Brit who believes there are just two asset classes - cash and property. But in your case you only believe in cash and bitcoin. I think many people are doing just fine by investing in other asset classes and perhaps better than the crypto-property bulls on this thread. I say crypto-property bulls as several people have posted on here about how they have used their bitcoin gains to buy a property, right at the top of the market.

[JawKnee]

2 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

$8k is a long way below the all time high. If there were aggregate new buyers, we would probably be seeing a new high.

Everybody with money who manages and isn't very risk averse has heard of bitcoin. People with no money, or who allow others to manage their money or who are very risk averse aren't relevant. It is conceivable that some people will become converts in this cycle, but probably not enough to go much higher.

The majority of global wealth still sits with the Boomers, they aren't going to be the ones to drive the price higher. Millenials and Gen Z prefer crypto to other investments and as that demographic's share of global wealth increases in the coming decades we'll see currencies like BTC mature. Dismissing those groups as "irrelevant" because they have no money currently is extremely short sighted.

[Kosmin]

2 minutes ago, JawKnee said:

The majority of global wealth still sits with the Boomers, they aren't going to be the ones to drive the price higher. Millenials and Gen Z prefer crypto to other investments and as that demographic's share of global wealth increases in the coming decades we'll see currencies like BTC mature.

Do you have evidence that those generations prefer crypto to other asset classes? That sounds incredibly unlikely. Most people who have a job will allocate their pension to the default, which will be mostly equities. It's only a small proportion of people who like to make direct investments. Most people prefer to have a manager make decisions or tracker.

4 minutes ago, JawKnee said:

Dismissing those groups as "irrelevant" because they have no money currently is extremely short sighted.

I wasn't dismissing those generations. I wasn't thinking by generation, but rather by class. The HNW and UHNW classes are much more important than middle and working class, and to a large extent they don't manage their own money.

[JawKnee]

5 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Do you have evidence that those generations prefer crypto to other asset classes? That sounds incredibly unlikely. Most people who have a job will allocate their pension to the default, which will be mostly equities. It's only a small proportion of people who like to make direct investments. Most people prefer to have a manager make decisions or tracker.

I wasn't dismissing those generations. I wasn't thinking by generation, but rather by class. The HNW and UHNW classes are much more important than middle and working class, and to a large extent they don't manage their own money.

Many surveys done in Europe and the US on generational opinions of Crypto. I'll try to find one.

Regarding pensions, Bitcoin ETFs are a matter of when not if.

[Kosmin]

15 minutes ago, JawKnee said:

Many surveys done in Europe and the US on generational opinions of Crypto. I'll try to find one.

That would be interesting, thanks.

But I'm sceptical. Here are a couple of several reasons.

Those generations are thought to be more concerned about the environment and the increasing energy requirements of bitcoin has been raised as a cause for concern by environmentalists.

Young people with little wealth and few obligations are probably going to behave differently when they have more money, a family etc.

 

15 minutes ago, JawKnee said:

Regarding pensions, Bitcoin ETFs are a matter of when not if.

There are lots of ETFs, but most people choose default options for their pension. A new ETF is unlikely to change that.

[scottbeard]

51 minutes ago, JawKnee said:

Many surveys done in Europe and the US on generational opinions of Crypto. I'll try to find one.

Regarding pensions, Bitcoin ETFs are a matter of when not if.

Hargreaves Lansdown already have one

[markyh]

15 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Hargreaves Lansdown already have one

Aye, and my Bitcoin ETN is up 37% from 2018 and the Ethereum one now up 6%. In fact now my Bitcoin ETN is out performing any reinvested equities dividends on growth from 2018. 

[Kosmin]

13 minutes ago, markyh said:

Aye, and my Bitcoin ETN is up 37% from 2018 and the Ethereum one now up 6%. In fact now my Bitcoin ETN is out performing any reinvested equities dividends on growth from 2018. 

The HL one has a charge of 2.5%, but I suppose that's worth it to hold in an ISA to avoid CGT. Not a good idea to put in a pension though as you'll smash through the lifetime allowance and pay a much higher tax rate (I think it's 55%!)

[scottbeard]

8 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

The HL one has a charge of 2.5%, but I suppose that's worth it to hold in an ISA to avoid CGT. Not a good idea to put in a pension though as you'll smash through the lifetime allowance and pay a much higher tax rate (I think it's 55%!)

At the moment you can't hold the HL one in an ISA or pension, I believe.  I'm not sure why they have restricted in that way.

[markyh]

7 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

The HL one has a charge of 2.5%, but I suppose that's worth it to hold in an ISA to avoid CGT. Not a good idea to put in a pension though as you'll smash through the lifetime allowance and pay a much higher tax rate (I think it's 55%!)

Lol, if Bitcoin and ETH ETN's take my SIPP though the £1million lifetime allowance anytime it the next 17 years paying a bit of tax wont upset me as I haven't added to it externally since 2010. My SIPP was created for transfer co-op pensions in 2010  and workplace pensions in 2018.

Apart from that I just tinker with it and let it compound. 

[markyh]

9 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

At the moment you can't hold the HL one in an ISA or pension, I believe.  I'm not sure why they have restricted in that way.

You can hold the XBT provider Bitcoin and Eth tracker ETN's in a HL SIPP for sure, I have both. You have to tick a lot of boxes that you are a certified top level pro investor blah, blah, blah and fully aware of the high level risks etc, which I did. My thoughts were I've been in Crypto for 5 years, been through2 x 85% drop bear markets, get lost, I know what im doing.

[scottbeard]

3 minutes ago, markyh said:

You can hold the XBT provider Bitcoin and Eth tracker ETN's in a HL SIPP for sure

Oops just realized I was looking at Lifetime ISA not pension (you can't hold it in ISA, including Lifetime ISA).

But sounds like you may be right about the SIPP!

I stand corrected

[markyh]

5 minutes ago, scottbeard said:

Oops just realized I was looking at Lifetime ISA not pension (you can't hold it in ISA, including Lifetime ISA).

But sounds like you may be right about the SIPP!

I stand corrected

Yep I don't do ******** , I like the saying, money talks, ******** walks. 

[longgone]

33 minutes ago, markyh said:

I know what im doing.

[Kosmin]

50 minutes ago, markyh said:

Lol, if Bitcoin and ETH ETN's take my SIPP though the £1million lifetime allowance anytime it the next 17 years paying a bit of tax wont upset me as I haven't added to it externally since 2010. My SIPP was created for transfer co-op pensions in 2010  and workplace pensions in 2018.

Even if you were on a low income, surely you already had a few hundred thousand in your SIPP when you transferred.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Kosmin

[markyh]

2 minutes ago, Kosmin said:

Even if you were on a low income, surely you already had a few hundred thousand in your SIPP when you transferred.

Not everyone worked for bluechips with pension schemes or final salary schemes, in fact the vast majority haven't / don't. the average UK pension pot is £25k!!! Workplace pension has only been around a few years. Some clever people put tolkien amounts into private pensions in the 80's and 90's and 00's and concentrated on property, hence why now from a 2 bed town semi in 1996 to a big 5 bed village detached with 1/3rd acre of land now. I have no sympathy for houseless renting 30-50 year olds with big pension pots complaining about the price of property, if they made the choice not to enter the market when it was obviously cheap. 

You try getting a IO mortgage on the basis you will have a "big" pension pot, they don't like it since MMR came into effect. 

I will stick to lot's of equity, cheap fixed mortgage rates, some reasonable pension savings and crypto thanks.

The wife on the other hand has 15 years in a final salary scheme so far on 60th's, and 20+ years to retirement, so that'll help too when we retire mortgage free.

 

[Kosmin]

1 hour ago, markyh said:

Not everyone worked for bluechips with pension schemes or final salary schemes, in fact the vast majority haven't / don't. the average UK pension pot is £25k!!!

Yes, I've heard that, but I think there are a couple of reasons the average is so low. It includes people of all ages*. Someone who has start started, with one month of pension contributions and people on low incomes, and people who only worked for a few years before stopping work to look after their children. But just earning a little above average (30-40k) and working for several decades should have accumulated to something fairly significant even with poor contribution rates.

Also, if the average pot is £25k then we need to know how many pots the average person has (if the average person has £25k per job and four jobs, that's not quite so abysmal). I've heard that the £25k is the average total pension saving per person rather than the average pot, but is it likely that anyone has good enough data to calculate this?

* What would really be useful is a set of projections as to what the average person's total pension pot will be on retirement (or at a variety of potential retirement ages) and their projected state pension. If the average person has 25k, but is still earning (how old is the average worker? 40?) and his pot is still accumulating, this should multiply several times by retirement age, probably even in real terms.

A lot of people are likely to be hit by very high taxes due to exceeding the lifetime allowance.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Kosmin

[markyh]

1 hour ago, Kosmin said:

Yes, I've heard that, but I think there are a couple of reasons the average is so low. It includes people of all ages*. Someone who has start started, with one month of pension contributions and people on low incomes, and people who only worked for a few years before stopping work to look after their children. But just earning a little above average (30-40k) and working for several decades should have accumulated to something fairly significant even with poor contribution rates.

Also, if the average pot is £25k then we need to know how many pots the average person has (if the average person has £25k per job and four jobs, that's not quite so abysmal). I've heard that the £25k is the average total pension saving per person rather than the average pot, but is it likely that anyone has good enough data to calculate this?

* What would really be useful is a set of projections as to what the average person's total pension pot will be on retirement (or at a variety of potential retirement ages) and their projected state pension. If the average person has 25k, but is still earning (how old is the average worker? 40?) and his pot is still accumulating, this should multiply several times by retirement age, probably even in real terms.

A lot of people are likely to be hit by very high taxes due to exceeding the lifetime allowance.

Me personally only put £25 a month into a private pension annuity from 18 to about 24 advised by the old co-op lady to get Thatchers late 80's top ups and bonuses, also separately opted out of SERPS into the co-op too with bonuses. That £25 pcm policy is still going and I wished I had been more wise, struggled to make it £100 pcm when I was young, because that £25pcm fixed with profits annuity is gaurenteed, and will pay out way , way more than the £14k contributions over 47 years, it pays out £8k lump sum @ 65 and £2700 p/a pension until I die. so that means after 2 years aged 67 it will have paid out over the £14k lifetime contributions. Had I really understood as a teenager the power of gaurenteed annuitys and Thatchers bonuses I would have drunk less beer and found a way to pay £100 pcm in. 

Apart from that I used to put £100-200 pcm into a private pension until 2009 when I got made redundant, then took a break until the workplace pension started in 2015, my employer then then started it 1 year early and it accumulated £7.5k from 2015-2018, as I opted for 100% shares allocation, no cash savings. Which I transferred into my SIPP and bought the XBT ETN's. But I have had a mortgage since is was 27 and borrowing for bigger houses has always trumped increasing monthly pension payments.

But yes a big chunk of big company employees and civil servants have good pensions, almost everyone else will have a small pot and pretty much rely on the state pension. Anyone 30ish or younger now will be better "if" they don't opt out of the workplace pension every April.

Even my old man on his £18k final salary civil service pension plus state pension shakes his head as both are unfunded, he told be his civil service pension is mostly funded from council tax payments! Worked 40 years and has been retired 5 years now on £25k p/a+ pension, will probably easily live another 10+ years.

[narco]

13 hours ago, dannyf said:

Posted at roughly $7400. Currently around $8100 (+9.5%). Will continue to track

Feel free to print it out, frame it and stick it above your fireplace.

[GreenDevil]

16 hours ago, dannyf said:

Posted at roughly $7400. Currently around $8100 (+9.5%). Will continue to track

Does it matter if it goes to 200k before 1.2k?

[dugsbody]

7 hours ago, markyh said:

Yep I don't do ******** , I like the saying, money talks, ******** walks. 

How much are you paying PA to hold that XBT?

[markyh]

32 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Does it matter if it goes to 200k before 1.2k?

I actually laughed out loud reading that reply while watching Stranger Things on Netflix with my kid. Classic.