Kosmin Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Silverfinger said: I am still absolutely amazed at Bitcoin's price strength. At least the tulips had real value: you could look at them, compost them, maybe even feed them to pigs, but Bitcoin? So, incredible strength in this zero-intrinsic-value "asset". Did you expect it to be zero by now, or just lower than the current price? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silverfinger Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Just now, Kosmin said: Did you expect it to be zero by now, or just lower than the current price? I guess I would have expected a quicker return to zero. But we all know that public delusions can go on for a very long time (sometimes over 2,000 years!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drat Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 51 minutes ago, Silverfinger said: I guess I would have expected a quicker return to zero. But we all know that public delusions can go on for a very long time (sometimes over 2,000 years!). Hehe, wish I could upvote you for that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeanutButter Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/11/experience-i-lost-1m-on-bitcoin Experience: I lost $1m on bitcoin I got caught up in the hype – and then the bubble burst Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, PeanutButter said: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/11/experience-i-lost-1m-on-bitcoin Experience: I lost $1m on bitcoin I got caught up in the hype – and then the bubble burst Best to take something than nothing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lavalas Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Love that job interview story. Especially the little details about winking etc. Great stuff * ‘$200k by 2021’ * Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbo Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 hours ago, PeanutButter said: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/11/experience-i-lost-1m-on-bitcoin Experience: I lost $1m on bitcoin I got caught up in the hype – and then the bubble burst I don’t like these articles as, he didn’t lose a million as it appears he still got a return on his initial stake. At best his experience is that he didn’t make a million, which is pretty common and maybe not worth an article. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannyf Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 8 hours ago, Silverfinger said: I guess I would have expected a quicker return to zero. But we all know that public delusions can go on for a very long time (sometimes over 2,000 years!). Nothing has “intrinsic value”. The only “value” is what someone else is willing to trade you for it. Bitcoin may well drop but it will never go to zero, because at 0.005 pence I’d buy them all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steppenpig Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 (edited) 5 hours ago, bobbo said: I don’t like these articles as, he didn’t lose a million as it appears he still got a return on his initial stake. At best his experience is that he didn’t make a million, which is pretty common and maybe not worth an article. Quote • Experience: I made $1m on bitcoin – and lost it again --- The headline of this article was amended on 11 January 2019, for clarity. Mildly interesting to see the level of deluson of bitcoin investors exposed to public scrutiny. Edited January 12, 2019 by Steppenpig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steppenpig Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I see the bitcoin and the gold streams have crossed. Isn't that some kind of harbinger of doom for the chartists? End of the universe as we know it. Cats will walk with dogs etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hullabaloo82 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 18 hours ago, markyh said: Interview Thursday, got the nod from the recruitment agent Friday, contracts arrived today. They where very happy with me, I also forced a conversation on EV as a company car option due to a statement in the job descriptions about latest tech, constant improvement and cost savings, again blank faces, so I educated them, again! (none of them knew 2% BIK for BEV in April 2020 when they are all driving potential 30%+ BIK then if they don't switch). I'm a very charming and Forcefull personality, an Alpha. But yes I have particular skills in a particular industry that is hard to recruit for in the UK and even harder now due to Brexit, No news kids coming in especially who are willing to graft and travel the whole out the South. So I am switching the focus of my own little business I started in the summer to online only on the back burner. The Bitcoin bit was at the very end "mulling" stage where they say any other questions, ask anything, and the atmosphere was very positive chatty, happy, plus they guy who would be my boss gave me the wink after I asked for the job. I remember the owner of a business I worked for in 2008 caught me out with special screen capture software on the internet when I had been checking my bullionvault.com statements which had a big chunk in as I STR in 2007. I got a telling off for wasting time on the net and then he lent in and said, "don't hold onto that gold to long its a lot of money in there and it's going to drop in price". This guy was worth £3-4 million. I told him he was wrong it would double in a few years and house prices would collapse. I left in 2009 after buying a very cheap 5 bed Terraced house 100k under 2006 price. Made a point of calling him on my last day and saying he was wrong, educating him how much my gold went up and how cheap I bought my house. You will struggle to convince me I am wrong as I am always willing to back my hunches to Zero. You "forced a conversation" on an EV as a company car then "educated" them about the tax implications of benefits in kind? If somebody did this in an interview with me, firstly I'd tell them I don't give a ****** about BIK, it's not 1996 anymore; we run an allowance/salary sacrifice scheme (like nearly all companies these days as it's far more tax efficient) so you can have whatever car you ******ing well like from the fleet provider. Secondly, I'd say this is something we can talk to the recruiter about during salary negotiations if it really matters that much to you, can we now get back to the interview? Thirdly (in the unlikely event we are still stuck in the 20th century and running a company car scheme) I'd tell you we have multiple payroll specialists and an employee benefits solutions provider who advise us on this so don't really need to be "educated" by some weirdo we're interviewing for something unrelated, thank you very much. At that point, you're into "cv in the bin" or "marching off the premises" territory, depending on my mood. This is in the real world though, I understand things function differently in fantasy land. Let me ask you something. If you're such a big dog Alpha with highly sought after skills why aren't you the one doing the interviewing? Or better yet, why aren't you contracting, selling your services to the highest bidder. You've been in the workplace long enough after all. As it stands, despite all the crypto and the gold you're a) still grafting away in a day job and b) still looking up to the guys earning £50k + as if it's Rockerfeller money (spoiler; it's not. Source; me). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 On 11/01/2019 at 19:34, bobbo said: I don’t like these articles as, he didn’t lose a million as it appears he still got a return on his initial stake. At best his experience is that he didn’t make a million, which is pretty common and maybe not worth an article. he made a big mistake not selling in 2017 but an even bigger one selling now and not 2059 when bitcoin hits 10k again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longgone Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 is this a bitcoin miner hodling ?? well he does have a pick ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 10/01/2019 at 17:43, Kosmin said: Yes. Almost everyone - and certainly everyone with significant wealth or income - has passed on it. It's reached saturation point. Most people don't buy bitcoin when they first hear of it, admittedly that is somewhat anecdotal on my part but its based on everyone I've ever conversed with via any medium, including this thread, and all the interviews and articles by people in the space I have watched/read. Also most people who have some, have bought more at some point after the initial purchase (also using the same anecdotal data). Far from being saturated, I think we've barely got started. Bitcoin is still far to new and risky for the vast majority of potential investors and users. Only people who are in so far are some mix of a) irrationally risk averse b) tech savy early adopters c) libertarian idealists. One day bitcoin will be as common place as a store of value investment as gold, some day after than it will be preferable due to all its advantages over gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 (edited) On 11/01/2019 at 16:57, PeanutButter said: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/11/experience-i-lost-1m-on-bitcoin Experience: I lost $1m on bitcoin I got caught up in the hype – and then the bubble burst If the guy had just buy and hold bitcoin he would still be left with over 100k from hs 20k investment. Pretty much every story in the media about people "losing money on bitcoin" features someone who would have made a tidy if unspectacular profit by just holding bitcoin but most of them started actively trading in the height of the bubble and thats when they got really burned. There is only about a 2 month window where it was possible to buy bitcoin and be in the red now. Edited January 13, 2019 by goldbug9999 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Rod Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said: If the guy had just buy and hold bitcoin he would still be left with over 100k from hs 20k investment. Pretty much every story in the media about people "losing money on bitcoin" features someone who would have made a tidy if unspectacular profit by just holding bitcoin but most of them started actively trading in the height of the bubble and thats when they got really burned. There is only about a 2 month window where it was possible to buy bitcoin and be in the red now. 2 Month window ?? You may want to check your facts on that. Still find it hard to believe people still claim hardly anyone has heard of Bitcoin. Virtually everybody I speak to that can string a sentence together has heard of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said: Most people don't buy bitcoin when they first hear of it, admittedly that is somewhat anecdotal on my part but its based on everyone I've ever conversed with via any medium, including this thread, and all the interviews and articles by people in the space I have watched/read. How much time passed after you heard about it before you bought? How about the other people you spoke to? I'm not surprised if that some time passed, but I expect it to be days, weeks or several months, rather than several years. Many people who are bullish on bitcoin notes that it has risen sharply and fallen sharply and always recovered, and then assert that this pattern will continue. If this pattern continues there will never be a bad time to buy. Buying at $20,000 will prove to be a good decision. OK it's fallen to $3,500 now, but it will soon be $100,000. Whereas at $20,000 it wasn't obvious that the price would fall, and once it started to fall, it wasn't obvious how far it would fall or when it would start rising again. The risk of waiting is far greater than the risk of buying at a local peak, if one believes in the long term value of bitcoin. So I wouldn't expect anyone who heard about bitcoin during the rapid rise from $2k to $20k to still be waiting to buy for the long term. Maybe there are people who are waiting because they don't really believe bitcoin has a future, but expect the wild fluctuations to continue and hope to make a quick profit from short term speculation. If they are still waiting to buy for the short term then they add to nothing to the long term demand and momentum. 2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said: Also most people who have some, have bought more at some point after the initial purchase (also using the same anecdotal data). This sounds plausible, but I expect people usually add a smaller amount. A lot of people who aren't wealthy made enormous gains, so most of their wealth is already in bitcoins. They can't add significant further wealth. Others are selling, not primarily because they expect falls, but to buy houses etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said: There is only about a 2 month window where it was possible to buy bitcoin and be in the red now. If you're talking about buy and hold, I think it's more like 15 months (from October 2017 the prices has always been higher than the current price). If you're referring to another strategy which has made money, you'll have to be more specific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 10 minutes ago, Black Rod said: 2 Month window ?? You may want to check your facts on that. Still find it hard to believe people still claim hardly anyone has heard of Bitcoin. Virtually everybody I speak to that can string a sentence together has heard of it. Heard of, maybe plenty, like everyone has heard of Gold Bullion, know facts about, they will know next to nothing. They will maybe know it went up a lot in 2017 and crashed a lot in 2018. ask them where do you buy it, how do you buy it, is it secure, what is the current price. They wont know. The real kicker is to say if you bought Bitcoin in January 2017 it is worth 3 x as much now in only 2 years, if you bought it in jan 2016 its worth 10 x as much as now in 3 years. I agree on the 2 month window bit, Anyone who bought between August 2017 and November 2018 is either underwater a bit, maybe break even if the bought the September 2017 dip, or is well underwater. Those people will know all about it. What I would like to know is how many who bought at a loss have now crystalised their loss and sold up? Had the regulars here done that in 2014/15 we would be crying in out bear right now, seeing how high it is after the next bull/bear market cycle. Now try finding people in general life that own any crypto, not just Bitcoin. It's a very, very small amount, heck is 80% of the bears proposing doom on here have never bought any Crypto, the world is 99% Nocoiners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Rod Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 On 11/01/2019 at 16:57, PeanutButter said: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/11/experience-i-lost-1m-on-bitcoin Experience: I lost $1m on bitcoin I got caught up in the hype – and then the bubble burst There was a three page article in the Sunday Times magazine today that I read this AM. Sorry cannot post a link. Andy Pag is a freelance journalist and it’s another story about someone who took a punt (he stuck £2000 in 2013, 100 coins). If I mention Mt Gox and no cold wallet storage, you can probably work out what happened. Quite a good article, but nothing new. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Kosmin said: This sounds plausible, but I expect people usually add a smaller amount. A lot of people who aren't wealthy made enormous gains, so most of their wealth is already in bitcoins. They can't add significant further wealth. Others are selling, not primarily because they expect falls, but to buy houses etc. I did. I bought more in 2018 at price levels up to 20 x higher than my initial 2014 entry. Put £6.5k in to Bitcoin ETN in my SIPP , £500 in September, £5000 in October and £1000 in November (late) . Also Put £2.5 in an Ethereum ETN in my SIPP in October 2018. Those are down 41% and 47%. Am I worried? No, I cant touch it for 5 years leglly, I wont ned it for 20 years, and like you alluded to, I believe there is no bad time to buy Crypto on a 3-4 year timeframe, and will continue to believe so it that trend changes and proves false. Like my initial £2k, I an happy for my 2018 £9k additions to go to zero over the next 20 years. You gotta be in it to win it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 46 minutes ago, Black Rod said: Still find it hard to believe people still claim hardly anyone has heard of Bitcoin. Virtually everybody I speak to that can string a sentence together has heard of it. Google "survey who has heard of bitcoin" and you'll find evidence that 8 or 9 in 10 people in the UK and US have heard of it. I reckon to 1 or 2 in 10 who haven't have very little wealth or doesn't manage it. So, effectively everyone has heard of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosmin Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, markyh said: I did. I bought more in 2018 at price levels up to 20 x higher than my initial 2014 entry. Put £6.5k in to Bitcoin ETN in my SIPP , £500 in September, £5000 in October and £1000 in November (late) . Also Put £2.5 in an Ethereum ETN in my SIPP in October 2018. You may be older the than typical buyer. Aren't you crypto holdings still less than the equity in your house? Are they also less than the in your pension(s)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyh Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, Black Rod said: There was a three page article in the Sunday Times magazine today that I read this AM. Sorry cannot post a link. Andy Pag is a freelance journalist and it’s another story about someone who took a punt (he stuck £2000 in 2013, 100 coins). If I mention Mt Gox and no cold wallet storage, you can probably work out what happened. Quite a good article, but nothing new. Ouch, shakes head. What confuses me is blockchain.info was been around since 2013 and has never been hacked. I used it from 2014 and never had an issue, now it's all on hardware wallets offline, but was still using blockchain.info when my stash was over £80k in 2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldbug9999 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Kosmin said: How much time passed after you heard about it before you bought? How about the other people you spoke to? I'm not surprised if that some time passed, but I expect it to be days, weeks or several months, rather than several years. I first heard about it in 2011, bought initially in 2013. The general pattern seems to be that people become aware of it during a bubble but assume its a fad, they then buy when the following bubble starts. So, again anecdotally, the most common time when people buy for the first times is the second time there is a "buzz" around it (that they are aware of) Edited January 13, 2019 by goldbug9999 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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