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The Bubbly Bitcoin Thread -- Merged Threads


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HOLA444
38 minutes ago, GreenDevil said:

Nasdaq Stockholm? Trades bitcoin?

I wondered how the banks can buy such quantity. The exchanges for the plebs limit size of deposits and withdrawals of fiat. On rule for them another four us.

It could easily come back down yet... there's a lot of smoke and mirrors going on. The banks don't really know what they're doing, they never did. They just want to join the party and try to use their influence to trade people out of money like in every other market. Remember, crypto is the one advantage you have against bankers, the one way to usurp their position of power. Do not let your Bitcoins be taken by selling at a paltry sum to some grinning banker in a shirt who would happily leave you in the gutter.

You know it's important to keep them when the banks start making big trades... it means they've decided they can't stay out of the game anymore... it means they have FOMO.

It's even more important when they start talking down the market and closing bank accounts and whatnot. They will use their hand, their contacts, their leverage to their best advantage to screw you out of Bitcoins that you've kept for years.

Edited by adamLancs
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8 minutes ago, adamLancs said:

It could easily come back down yet... there's a lot of smoke and mirrors going on. The banks don't really know what they're doing, they never did. They just want to join the party and try to use their influence to trade people out of money like in every other market. Remember, crypto is the one advantage you have against bankers, the one way to usurp their position of power. Do not let your Bitcoins be taken by selling at a paltry sum to some grinning banker in a shirt who would happily leave you in the gutter.

You know it's important to keep them when the banks start making big trades... it means they've decided they can't stay out of the game anymore... it means they have FOMO.

It's even more important when they start talking down the market and closing bank accounts and whatnot. They will use their hand, their contacts, their leverage to their best advantage to screw you out of Bitcoins that you've kept for years.

Wouldn't it make sense when the banks are all in to start a new people's Bitcoin and allow the original to be revalued to zero? This would be the easiest way to extract 60bn from the banking sector. 

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2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

And big profit already.

 

I thought myself 'i bet when it hits 3000 they'll all pile back in"

 

Sure enough......

lol. I find this funny, so in the last 20 days of tracking the daily £ GBP total value of my Crypto, we have :

20 days ago £25400

14 days ago £29100

1 day ago £16700

This morning £20200. 

But looking at my crypto value in crypto, it's now worth slightly more, with the addition of 0.1108 ZCash mined. 

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19 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

Wouldn't it make sense when the banks are all in to start a new people's Bitcoin and allow the original to be revalued to zero? This would be the easiest way to extract 60bn from the banking sector. 

No need to fight them, there is a finite supply of 21,000,000. All you have to do is hold on. Bitcoin is 8 years old and has been tested in dozens of different ways, there is no real way to replace it that does not take time and builds confidence and community the way that Bitcoin has.

Altcoins are the next best thing but once again they take time to build confidence and community.

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1 hour ago, GreenDevil said:

Nasdaq Stockholm? Trades bitcoin?

I wondered how the banks can buy such quantity. The exchanges for the plebs limit size of deposits and withdrawals of fiat. On rule for them another four us.

Bear in mind that 1 unit of that fund is at current prices about £14  which would make it  roughly 1/200th of a bitcoin..

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9 hours ago, markyh said:

lol. I find this funny, so in the last 20 days of tracking the daily £ GBP total value of my Crypto, we have :

20 days ago £25400

14 days ago £29100

1 day ago £16700

This morning £20200. 

But looking at my crypto value in crypto, it's now worth slightly more, with the addition of 0.1108 ZCash mined. 

There is greater than 50% of people simply cannot take that kind of drawdown, just with the way their brain deals with loss. It is obvious easier if you started with little.

For every one of those huge buys, there are many smaller investors who lose faith. More often than not they have a connection to the money they invested, for example they were going to use it for a house deposit, or they've already started looking at and pricing up ferrarris and their dream is now slipping away... ;)

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4 hours ago, adamLancs said:

There is greater than 50% of people simply cannot take that kind of drawdown, just with the way their brain deals with loss. It is obvious easier if you started with little.

For every one of those huge buys, there are many smaller investors who lose faith. More often than not they have a connection to the money they invested, for example they were going to use it for a house deposit, or they've already started looking at and pricing up ferrarris and their dream is now slipping away... ;)

The ferrari buyer already has one. He got in well before this pop.

I have a mixed bag. Im holding ripple as i see this as the banker end game who wins the game hedge. I have btc (with free bch), eth, and lite coin bought some time back so well in profit. I have etc and zcash bought later, currently underwater.  And a few other smaller altcoins ark, neo, steem

I dont see it as drawdown, i still have the same amount of coins. Its only drawdown if priced in monopoly money (money to buy that house).

I am just a bit disappointed they manage to bounce so soon, was hoping for a sustained drop, to buy cheaper.

Currently mining ether and sia, adding to portfolio each week..

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8 hours ago, GreenDevil said:

I dont see it as drawdown, i still have the same amount of coins. Its only drawdown if priced in monopoly money (money to buy that house).

I am just a bit disappointed they manage to bounce so soon, was hoping for a sustained drop, to buy cheaper.

Currently mining ether and sia, adding to portfolio each week..

Not really fussed about buying more but I think an extended drawdown->sideways period would be desirable at this point, especially for ETH. There has been a huge influx of dumb money and an accompanying explosion of predatory 'investment' vehicles. We could do with a clear-out of that kind of thing to (a) allow devs to gravitate towards worthwhile projects, and (b) dial down some of the regulatory risk that has been building up. A big drawdown lets the financial journalists say "aha, we were right all along!" and go back to not paying attention for two years. These fallow periods are when the investment opportunities actually start cropping up.  

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6 minutes ago, Darby Ram said:

These fallow periods are when the investment opportunities actually start cropping up.  

If bitcoin does what it has done several times before we could be waiting 4 more years for the next bubble around 2021. but the low (buying opportunity) would be in around 2020. 

time goes quick enough and the next bubble should be pretty massive £10k a coin 

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22 hours ago, sideysid said:

have you got any idea how much physical precious metals they're hoarding?

I suspect if JPM are in any way into bitcoin they are using it as a carry-trade to pump and offload into silver when the price is right...funnily enough much the same as china is doing with PM's......

china's intention is quite clear...they have now openly stated that their trade will be done with partially gold backed yuan trade note...and when I say gold backed I mean the physical stuff.All that remains is for them to publicly declare the REAL amount of shiny stuff they have in their vaults...and I suspect it is something in the order of 10-15 times the amount they have publicised so far.

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14 hours ago, adamLancs said:

There is greater than 50% of people simply cannot take that kind of drawdown, just with the way their brain deals with loss. It is obvious easier if you started with little.

For every one of those huge buys, there are many smaller investors who lose faith. More often than not they have a connection to the money they invested, for example they were going to use it for a house deposit, or they've already started looking at and pricing up ferrarris and their dream is now slipping away... ;)

not sure about that...if you take a look in the average betting shop it's full of guys who are "chasing" to reclaim their losses.....ie just lost £50 on the slot machine but of course this next tenner will get it all back and then some.

it's gamblers psychology,same is true in stock market bubbles.....down 30% but it's an opportunity to buy some more at a discount because it's going back up and then some.

it's very true that you should pick a stock/item when the people who were invested in it are either frustrated/depressed/fed up and sold out because it's a lost cause.

hence why I am more into PM's at this moment than bitcoin...the psychology in the PM's sector is one of frustration because it's gone nowhere in 5 years(technically not the case in GBP because you've gained about 30% in currency conversion)...even though taking a look at a 40 year chart says it ought to be shaping up to go mental in a couple of years.....if you map the recent pattern onto the last bull market chart, I would say we are at around 1977-1978.

 

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5 minutes ago, oracle said:

not sure about that...if you take a look in the average betting shop it's full of guys who are "chasing" to reclaim their losses.....ie just lost £50 on the slot machine but of course this next tenner will get it all back and then some.

it's gamblers psychology,same is true in stock market bubbles.....down 30% but it's an opportunity to buy some more at a discount because it's going back up and then some.

it's very true that you should pick a stock/item when the people who were invested in it are either frustrated/depressed/fed up and sold out because it's a lost cause.

hence why I am more into PM's at this moment than bitcoin...the psychology in the PM's sector is one of frustration because it's gone nowhere in 5 years(technically not the case in GBP because you've gained about 30% in currency conversion)...even though taking a look at a 40 year chart says it ought to be shaping up to go mental in a couple of years.....if you map the recent pattern onto the last bull market chart, I would say we are at around 1977-1978.

 

please do take a look at the PM long term chart,because it maps almost perfectly.If I am right and china does show their hand in this game of texas hold-em, then we are looking at WAY higher prices......and I don't think uncle sam (and UK)is done either...I think we will ALSO show their hand, that we have NOT entirely abandoned the gold standard either...I think we are going to magically find some stuff that was not on the official books too.

it's going to make the people who were trying to deliberately bankrupt the country by selling off the assets at fire-sale prices(thanks gordon!), look extremely silly...these guys are going to be publicly humiliated!!

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2 hours ago, oracle said:

not sure about that...if you take a look in the average betting shop it's full of guys who are "chasing" to reclaim their losses.....ie just lost £50 on the slot machine but of course this next tenner will get it all back and then some.

it's gamblers psychology

It makes perfect sense to buy dips when your already holding its called cost pound averaging. Its totally different to when gambler chases losses by going for a higher risk gamble.

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5 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

It makes perfect sense to buy dips when your already holding its called cost pound averaging. Its totally different to when gambler chases losses by going for a higher risk gamble.

That is not what pound cost averaging means. It is not buying on the dips, it's buying at regular intervals. 

Buying gold or titcoin expecting prices to rise when there's nothing fundamental underpinning increases is the very definition is a speculative bubble.

It's gambling. Nothing more. Fine for fun but don't bet your future on it. 

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17 minutes ago, adarmo said:

That is not what pound cost averaging means. It is not buying on the dips, it's buying at regular intervals. 

Buying gold or titcoin expecting prices to rise when there's nothing fundamental underpinning increases is the very definition is a speculative bubble.

It's gambling. Nothing more. Fine for fun but don't bet your future on it. 

Its both - you buy at intervals but you adjust the timing to attempt to buy dips. Also I don't think anyone is in any doubt that its speculation, personally I'm betting on the long term utility, others may have different reasons.

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5 hours ago, adarmo said:

That is not what pound cost averaging means. It is not buying on the dips, it's buying at regular intervals. 

Buying gold or titcoin expecting prices to rise when there's nothing fundamental underpinning increases is the very definition is a speculative bubble.

It's gambling. Nothing more. Fine for fun but don't bet your future on it. 

If gold has a "market cap" of $7 trillion and Bitcoin one of $60 billion, and Bitcoin can do everything gold does as a store of value, in addition to being able to be transferred across the internet in an hour, and not having any storage costs, then I'd say that one is severely undervalued, or one severely overvalued. Perhaps they'll meet in the middle?

Edited by Eddie_George
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59 minutes ago, Eddie_George said:

If gold has a "market cap" of $7 trillion and Bitcoin one of $60 billion, and Bitcoin can do everything gold does as a store of value, in addition to being able to be transferred across the internet in an hour, not having any storage costs, then I'd say that one is severely undervalued, or one severely overvalued. Perhaps they'll meet in the middle?

They are not comparable. 

Gold has some industrial application and can be used for jewellery.

I like the ideology behind bitcoin but it's tulip mania. 

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5 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

Its both - you buy at intervals but you adjust the timing to attempt to buy dips. Also I don't think anyone is in any doubt that its speculation, personally I'm betting on the long term utility, others may have different reasons.

 Pound cosy averaging is specifically not timing the market. All it means is that by investing a regular amount you buy more when the price falls and less when the price is high. 

Im interested in the utility but highly sceptical about valuation. What does bitcoin offer that can't be replicated by another coin offering?

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1 hour ago, adarmo said:

 Pound cosy averaging is specifically not timing the market. All it means is that by investing a regular amount you buy more when the price falls and less when the price is high. 

Im interested in the utility but highly sceptical about valuation. What does bitcoin offer that can't be replicated by another coin offering?

That's exactly it. Damn all. Replicatable- tulip- a-like.

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and goes Quack the odd time,... it's probably a duck. 

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Real gold in the hand is better than Bitcoin in a SHTF scenario. Paper gold is worse in every scenario. If I buy a gold ETF or whatnot then I might as well be buying Bitcoin, because if there comes a time where gold returns to it's true value then that ETF will be worthless.

Part of a balanced portfolio includes both... crypto is going nowhere, (real) gold is going nowhere. They will both reveal their true value over time.

Quote

Im interested in the utility but highly sceptical about valuation. What does bitcoin offer that can't be replicated by another coin offering?

Nothing, we just get off on cheerleading the price up... we don't really talk about this stuff here.

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