Harry Monk Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Thats where its at. Canalling it up and down the country. You really see the uk from a different angle coming into town on a narrow boat. Also the people who live along the rivers theyre not really like the rest of the population. They really seem a good lot, ready to share and not get sucked into the system. I remember seeing an old couple in this lovely short wooden canal boat once, in a lock. The boat was superb. I remember thinking, yes thats where i want to be when I am that age. I also read that if you can get across the channel in the thing, you can get down the Seine and all the way through France into the Med. Not sure if thats true or not but by God that sounds like a way to retire. Yes, people have crossed the English Channel in a heavily prepared narrow boat, on a very calm day, although they are only designed to run on still, shallow water. As an example of typical costs, this is for sale at £24,000, they'd probably take £20,000. Boats like this come up all the time at around the £20,000 mark. http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/45-Narrowboat-Cruiser-Stern-/121190156913?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_3&hash=item1c377f0a71 A tenth of the cost of a house, £1,000 a year for a continuous cruising licence and insurance, about the same for maintenance, £1 an hour when the engine is running. I'm just going to cruise around the industrial Midlands and the northern canal, and leave houses to other folk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) The price is ALWAYS right...for whatever reason. I will always await value before buying an illiquid asset. More liquid assets I will always buy the trend. Hmm, an interesting response HAM. Good point. Edit: Houses being probably the most illiquid asset I can think of. Edited October 19, 2013 by The Masked Tulip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Monk Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 You may have been misinformed about the Channel. It has been done, here's a narrowboat approaching Calais. Obviously they are not designed to do this and I would be quite happy to restrict myself to the UK canal network, you can go from London to Liverpool and beyond without leaving still water. That is my plan now, I have completely abandoned any thought of buying a house ever again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
workingpoor Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Interesting views people - thanks. With the odd exception the general consensus appears to be that house prices are going up - which is an interesting view on a forum full of people waiting for a house price crash Short of some major bloack swan event the HPI seems to be very much in place. Does anyone have any thoughts or views on the wider economy - jobs, inflation, the stock market and, yes, even commodities such as precious metals? Where do you lot think we are now - in an inflationary environment or a deflationary one? I been if the opinion for a while now that the great numbers who've bought in the last 8 yrs secretly hoping for HPI who are now clinging on by their fingernails will get rinsed either way by high inflation in everyday essentials. The only desperate hope for them is to MEW any equity they might gain from HTB inflating prices to clear built up credit card debts etc so they can carry on clinging on a while longer, I believe this was why the heinous HTB2 was rushed forward TPTB know high inflation is crippling the debt zombies and they're trying to get them some HPI to MEW. I'm really pleased with this situation "be carefull what you wish for" springs to mind. Bring on the inflation I say let's start rinsing the debt is wealth HPI crowd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 Bring on the inflation I say let's start rinsing the debt is wealth HPI crowd. Inflation or deflation though? You can read a 100 articles each week on the financial sites and half will say that we are in an inflationary environment due to QE, rising food and fuel prices, etc... but the other half will say that we are in a deflationary period with falling assets and they point to the falling price of gold, silver, other metals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearwithasorehead Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 It has been done, here's a narrowboat approaching Calais. Obviously they are not designed to do this and I would be quite happy to restrict myself to the UK canal network, you can go from London to Liverpool and beyond without leaving still water. That is my plan now, I have completely abandoned any thought of buying a house ever again. I stand corrected. If you ever make it to the Bham-Worcs canal, PM me and I'll stand you multiple pints, Harry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) Interesting views people - thanks. With the odd exception the general consensus appears to be that house prices are going up - which is an interesting view on a forum full of people waiting for a house price crash Short of some major bloack swan event the HPI seems to be very much in place. Does anyone have any thoughts or views on the wider economy - jobs, inflation, the stock market and, yes, even commodities such as precious metals? Where do you lot think we are now - in an inflationary environment or a deflationary one? Wasn't sure if you wanted personal, micro or macro responses. I'm only qualified to give a personal response and thats best summed up by saying/asking its not looking good is it? If you're 35 with a family, chances are things are not turning out as planned. I think ChairmanoftheBored summed it up best for me although I'd be lying if I denied my position was born out of fear and laziness as much as values. In the end I favour a choice that is based on values not value. If the offer is rent or get balls deep in debt in the hope that some younger sucker can in due course be found to take on debts that make your debts look like a passing flirtation with material bondage and make you better off for being courageous about debt, (at the cost of them being worse off), I'd rather rent and take my chances. There is no light at the end of the tunnel, no respite, no hope for me now. The sort of timescales talked about just do not fit with my time of life. I have even recently offered on a house but that was a 'unique opportunity' (reportedly 10 offers and even I offered just over asking). I don't have an eye on anything at the moment except a decent value, better rental. This must be the soft landing we heard about so much back in the day. The landing so far may have been soft but we've been skidding on our arses ever since and the friction burns from official policy are excruciating. The social problems associated with this seem to be, IMHO, snowballing. I wish those who want to plough their own furrow well. Those who are balls deep can FOAD. Edited October 19, 2013 by 7 Year Itch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
workingpoor Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Inflation or deflation though? You can read a 100 articles each week on the financial sites and half will say that we are in an inflationary environment due to QE, rising food and fuel prices, etc... but the other half will say that we are in a deflationary period with falling assets and they point to the falling price of gold, silver, other metals. I don't see anything else falling though except PM's and it's rumoured that market is rigged. The stock markets super "toppy" Looks like someone tried to bump the sugar price on the futures market today as well: http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24588150 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 I don't see anything else falling though except PM's and it's rumoured that market is rigged. The stock markets super "toppy" Looks like someone tried to bump the sugar price on the futures market today as well: http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24588150 Yes, I think we are in an inflationary environment but that the 'game' is to pretend that we are not so that they can keep IRs low... probably for many more years to come... As long as they keep IRs low the banks benefit in so many ways. Those who say that gold and silver are being manipulated - perhaps they are right. Everything seems to be rising except for IRs and PMs. The stock markets do indeed look super toppy but then people were saying that well over a year ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silver surfer Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 With the odd exception the general consensus appears to be that house prices are going up - which is an interesting view on a forum full of people waiting for a house price crash In many parts of the country nominal prices have a bit further to drop. But in London, the South East, and a few other areas boasting decent jobs and/or attractive scenery nominal prices will basically move sideways. Up a few percent one year, down a few percent the next. There's an equilibrium now that seems stable for the forseeable future. On the one hand wage stagnation and globalisation are grinding living standards inexorably down, but on the other hand interest rates aren't going to move up much and we're still building less than half the houses we need (and less than a third of the houses we've actually built in prior years when the population was much less). Bottom line is get used to it, what we see now is the shape of this country for years to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 10 year is down slightly over the last few weeks but still along way above the May low. My prediction is all this will carry on. US will not taper and will continue to print. UK will eye nervously world events but carry on as is. My guess is that the first macro event we will see is the continued US printing blowing up one of the BRICs or another major economy. I have no clue when this will happen. Seems to me Japan did QE for 20 yes and... Anyway 10 rate going lot lower! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie_George Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Heading towards #Marxism This isn't Twitter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 Seems to me Japan did QE for 20 yes and... Anyway 10 rate going lot lower! Which means lower rates on mortgages and loans doesn't it - so rising house prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geezer466 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) I still love this forum and I suppose I will always drop by, there are some true shining wits here , although for me personally I have abandoned all plans to buy a house ever again, I am going to sell my transport company and buy a narrow boat in 2016, give up work and spend the rest of my days cruising the canal network. I'll be 57 then and I should have enough of my STR fund left to buy a decent boat and keep myself and it, albeit frugally, until my state pension kicks in. Same age as me Harry..... State pension don't kick in till we are 66. Lucky us are the first ones to catch the extension. As for the house boat thing, insurance,maintenance costs and berthing fees are something Edit: Another quick read tells me you have already researched. Edited October 19, 2013 by geezer466 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) Short of some major bloack swan event the HPI seems to be very much in place. Does anyone have any thoughts or views on the wider economy - jobs, inflation, the stock market and, yes, even commodities such as precious metals? Where do you lot think we are now - in an inflationary environment or a deflationary one? The next crash will come from an exogenous shock. My best guess is China. Next crash will be bigger than 2008. Eventually FED will lose control of rates but we're a long way from that yet. Too early to tell if de or inflation. Probably deflation assets inflation goods/services. Comms still in bear until not. Counter trend rally happening now. Aggregate income down as massive rise in UNDERemployment even if big fall in unemployment. Edited October 19, 2013 by Killer Bunny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 This isn't Twitter! #well #it #bl00dy #well #ought #to #be Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Same age as me Harry..... State pension don't kick in till we are 66. Lucky us are the first ones to catch the extension. As for the house boat thing, insurance,maintenance costs and berthing fees are something you should research. Thing here about narrow boats. I cannot vouch for how accurate it is but I found it interesting. http://www.venetianmarina.co.uk/uploaded/documents/Guide-to-Getting-Afloat.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Which means lower rates on mortgages and loans doesn't it - so rising house prices? You seriously think THAT'S what happened in Japan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 The next crash will come from an exogenous shock. My best guess is China. Next crash will be bigger than 2008. Eventually FED will lose control of rates but we're a long way from that yet. Too early to tell if due or inflation. Probably deflation assets inflation goods/services. Comma still in bear until not. Counter trend rally happening now. Aggregate income down as massive rise in UNDERemployment even if big fall in unemployment. Freck, now I have to go and google exogenous just to make sure you haven't made it up Bigger than 2008 - so big then. 1929 big? I hate to say it but I hope so. We're not seeing asset deflation in UK houses though are we - other countries have and still are but not us. Thanks for clarifying your thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted October 19, 2013 Author Share Posted October 19, 2013 You seriously think THAT'S what happened in Japan? Oh right - your Japan doing QE for 20 years and UK 10 year rates going lower comments were linked. No, well, house prices crashed in Japan didn't they but they just bubbled and then crashed. We haven't had that - we got bubble, then stagnation/refusal to drop and now a newer bubble is being deliberately inflated on top of the original. So do you think this 'second bubble' attempt by Osborne will peter out and fail and asset deflation - houses - takes hold in the UK? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Oh right - your Japan doing QE for 20 years and UK 10 year rates going lower comments were linked. No, well, house prices crashed in Japan didn't they but they just bubbled and then crashed. We haven't had that - we got bubble, then stagnation/refusal to drop and now a newer bubble is being deliberately inflated on top of the original. So do you think this 'second bubble' attempt by Osborne will peter out and fail and asset deflation - houses - takes hold in the UK? He posted this early on: "Rises at least to 2015 Election." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
workingpoor Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Oh right - your Japan doing QE for 20 years and UK 10 year rates going lower comments were linked. No, well, house prices crashed in Japan didn't they but they just bubbled and then crashed. We haven't had that - we got bubble, then stagnation/refusal to drop and now a newer bubble is being deliberately inflated on top of the original. So do you think this 'second bubble' attempt by Osborne will peter out and fail and asset deflation - houses - takes hold in the UK? I think the can's just been kicked since 2008 five years of plate spinning with QE stoked inflation just starting to rip now, debt junkies have managed to muddle through with payday loans and credit cards refusing to let the "jones's" know they're in trouble keeping up the facade. The zombie rinse out will come very shortly I hope Xmas is the breaker It's the best time of year for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 (edited) I think the can's just been kicked since 2008 five years of plate spinning with QE stoked inflation just starting to rip now, debt junkies have managed to muddle through with payday loans and credit cards refusing to let the "jones's" know they're in trouble keeping up the facade. The zombie rinse out will come very shortly I hope Xmas is the breaker It's the best time of year for it. It'll be alright until well it isn't. When's the next UK credit rating downgrade due? Edited October 19, 2013 by Ash4781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
workingpoor Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 I think the key to a HPC in the current economic environment is household finance's, and inflation in essentials is the accelerant we need more of it, the energy price hikes this week are a good start squeezing another £1000 odd a year onto those finances & I.O mortgages being pulled also a good start pushing up the monthy's switching to repayment mortgages. We just need a payday loan fuelled Xmas with all the trimmings setting it up for first quarter 2014 Ho Ho Ho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted October 19, 2013 Share Posted October 19, 2013 Peoples Revolutionary House Price Crash Popular Front? I'm in. What goes on the flag? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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