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The Masked Tulip

So, Where Are We? What Is The Hpc State Of Play?

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We've had some hard knocks in recent weeks as far as a HPC is concerned people.

H2B and considerable ramping of rising house prices in the media, mortgage sales up, Haliwide indxes up, estate agents back to their smarmy gloating selves. You can't turn on the BBC nowadays without a day passing without some house price ramping story.

It's a bit like a HPC Rourke's Drift at the moment.

Add to that the stocks markets are soaring seemingly forever upwards and black swans, US debt ceilings, etc, do not even put a dent in the upwards march of stocks.

Food and fuel is also rising but the government and BOE just ignores it or removes things like food from the 'inflation basket' and replaces it with stuff we all buy like diamond encrusted golden ipod cases.

Where are we people? What do you think the state of play is?

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We've had some hard knocks in recent weeks as far as a HPC is concerned people.

H2B and considerable ramping of rising house prices in the media, mortgage sales up, Haliwide indxes up, estate agents back to their smarmy gloating selves. You can't turn on the BBC nowadays without a day passing without some house price ramping story.

It's a bit like a HPC Rourke's Drift at the moment.

Add to that the stocks markets are soaring seemingly forever upwards and black swans, US debt ceilings, etc, do not even put a dent in the upwards march of stocks.

Food and fuel is also rising but the government and BOE just ignores it or removes things like food from the 'inflation basket' and replaces it with stuff we all buy like diamond encrusted golden ipod cases.

Where are we people? What do you think the state of play is?

90% of us a re getting a great deal poorer. Inflation is higher than wage increases. The Help to buy fiasco is another plainly stupid idea which supports rediculous prices, when in fact wages falling or stagnant would otherwise cause House price falls. They had been gently drifting, but now they are slightly stronger. Although I don't find much evidence that actual prices of sold properties have risen. In fact I still see many cuts and lots of trying it on followed by cuts. It will all blow up eventually, but how long can anyone wait...a whole 15yrs?! We have watsed the last 5 with a govt that started to talk about it sensibly but then oticed an election was only 2.5yrs away, so changed its mind. We use to hear the FSA would deal with income lending multiples, or that the reason deposits were high is that lenders had factored in overpricing, or that sales were so low the prices were drifting down. We used to hear the economy needed rebalancing and that investment 'should be in the ptoductive economy,' at least that's what I heard the PM say back in 2010. Now it's all baloney again. Very Very short sighted and hard to see when anyone will get to grips with it. The tories are to blame pre 1997 too. There was a golden opportunity to stamp on this house specualtion when homes had fallen to a reasonable low point in 1995, they should have acted around then to enforce lending principles that keep land prices in check.

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90% of us a re getting a great deal poorer. Inflation is higher than wage increases. The Help to buy fiasco is another plainly stupid idea which supports rediculous prices, when in fact wages falling or stagnant would otherwise cause House price falls. They had been gently drifting, but now they are slightly stronger. Although I don't find much evidence that actual prices of sold properties have risen. In fact I still see many cuts and lots of trying it on followed by cuts. It will all blow up eventually, but how long can anyone wait...a whole 15yrs?! We have watsed the last 5 with a govt that started to talk about it sensibly but then oticed an election was only 2.5yrs away, so changed its mind. We use to hear the FSA would deal with income lending multiples, or that the reason deposits were high is that lenders had factored in overpricing, or that sales were so low the prices were drifting down. We used to hear the economy needed rebalancing and that investment 'should be in the ptoductive economy,' at least that's what I heard the PM say back in 2010. Now it's all baloney again. Very Very short sighted and hard to see when anyone will get to grips with it. The tories are to blame pre 1997 too. There was a golden opportunity to stamp on this house specualtion when homes had fallen to a reasonable low point in 1995, they should have acted around then to enforce lending principles that keep land prices in check.

All valid points - but where are we now, apart from being in the 90% getting poorer?

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Rises at least to 2015 Election.

Within 5 yrs borrowing rates will likely rise and, within 12 months of starting, they'll nearly double.

Rates have fallen 30+ yrs. They'll rise at least 10-20 yrs...

All the while the middli class will be increasingly hammered with more and more direct and indirect taxes.

Aggregate incomes unlikely to keep pace with costs of living.

Heading towards #Marxism

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I believe we are heading rapidly towards the "return to 'normal'" peak in the lifecycle of a bubble.

bubble-lifecycle.gif

If I had a quid for every time I've heard that... :lol:

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According to some experts, we currently have annual growth of 3,or 4%, this should fix the deficit debt bubble and everything, in which case rates rise to cool the economy.

Or none of the above except the debt gets bigger, eventually default called something else, rates rise spending crashes etc.

Either way it all points hpc at some point just when.

Of course if wages rise above inflation then hpc will not happen.. But all sorts of things make this impossible.

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I believe we are heading rapidly towards the "return to 'normal'" peak in the lifecycle of a bubble.

bubble-lifecycle.gif

Actually I agree with this, except I think the slope of the 'capitulation' curve will be shallower and perhaps last 10 years.

Up to election, little change as people partly believe the BS of the HTB. Then a Labour govt with a decent majority and who knows (I don't think they'll be any worse than the current govt). I know the latter isn't on message for HPC, but there you go. They might even start a proper debate on a citizen's income.

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One thing is for certain, now would be a really bad time to buy, with vendors' expectations going through the roof. Although, having said that, with the exception of a couple of chancers, asking prices on Rightmove, in my corner of the South East, are continuing to fall.

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I think HTB2 is the last roll of the dice from a clearly desperate government, rushing it forward 3 months. Huge well co-ordinated media ramping campaign underway that smacks of desperation, in the last 2 weeks I've had quite a few leaflet drops from local EA's saying take advantage of the boyant housing market NOW etc I've also read somewhere that BOE agents have been visiting EA local offices across the country probably to direct the ramping.

Hold firm HPC'ers I think the big rinse is imminent, I'm gonna be bearish and call crash during first quarter 2014

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Tories are looking to 2015 to get elected.

Anything else is immaterial even if it means placing the UK in dire economic peril.

As far as HTB goes only fools would jump in. Get the message out to family and friends rubbish the idea, tell them to treat like the toxic dog shite that it is!!

The key indicators are wage levels and other than directors of energy firms these are no where near keeping up with inflation.

Not to mention how the gap has widened over the last few years.

The report over the last few days that work is no longer a route out of poverty will in future years be seen as some sort of turning point.

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Clearly the agents and VI's have got behind the ramping of HTB 2 and the political agenda.

That said, I don't see selling prices or volumes moving much in my area of the SE. There is a bit of a dearth of choice. The only thing I see moving up is asking prices which seem to march ever upwards.

I think COTB's charts spell the long term trend for lending. The claim that stock markets are soaring doesn't really hold up, we are still some way off the 6800 posted in Mid May. Petrol prices are well down as well, probably because of the middle east situation calming down a little.

10 year is down slightly over the last few weeks but still along way above the May low.

My prediction is all this will carry on. US will not taper and will continue to print. UK will eye nervously world events but carry on as is.

My guess is that the first macro event we will see is the continued US printing blowing up one of the BRICs or another major economy. I have no clue when this will happen.

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The downward spiral continues. Social mobility is gone, hope of ever owning a home is gone if you haven't already got one. If you have got one youre holding on by your finger nails and cant move.

I don't think we can conclude much from help to buy yet, until it filters down into offerings from the banks we won't really know what it means and thus far those offerings don't look to me to be about to blow up the housing market. Its largest impact has been to fill some newspaper columns and encourage some that were 'waiting for things to get back to normal' to put their house back on the market or jack up the asking price from unsaleable to laughable.

The longer they keep houses out of reach of those under 40 the more people will get used to the idea of never owning and the least unfashionable the notion of never owning will become.

I don't see the bubble getting blown up anymore, there is little demand for cr4p housing at unaffordable prices. But I can't see them falling significantly in the near future either, the powers that be have made it clear they want low rates for as long as they can have them and if thats at the expense of the real economy then so be it.

The 'house is my pension' lot are screwed, the young don't care about houses and have got used to a lower quality of life than their parents enjoyed and understandably lack motivation, those in the middle if they've already bought are just about hanging on and if they haven't they have probably given up on the idea and are waiting for their parents to die.

We have an unproductive and grim country and I don't see it improving for the next 5+ years, help to buy or no help to buy. It wont matter who wins the next election either they are all the same.

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Yep, you might just have enough for an overpriced house!

I still love this forum and I suppose I will always drop by, there are some true shining wits here ;) , although for me personally I have abandoned all plans to buy a house ever again, I am going to sell my transport company and buy a narrow boat in 2016, give up work and spend the rest of my days cruising the canal network. I'll be 57 then and I should have enough of my STR fund left to buy a decent boat and keep myself and it, albeit frugally, until my state pension kicks in.

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We've had some hard knocks in recent weeks as far as a HPC is concerned people.

Where are we people? What do you think the state of play is?

At this point, I expect nothing from our esteemed leaders than more and more and more shenanigans to attempt to keep the plates spinning. In fact, I almost look forward to the ridiculousness of the next scheme, here or abroad. What I especially love watching now is the fear the media attempts to portray (as seen with the debt ceiling), and the utter shamelessness of the banks and politicians to attempt to confuse, play on the heartstrings or attempt to push the line that they are going 'god's work' and have our interests at the forefront of their mind. It is now to me pure comedy.

Frankly, they could do so indefinitely, and it wouldn't really make an iota of difference to the way I live my life. At this point, mid thirties,

1) I will never have a family

2) I will probably never have a long term relationship

3) I will continue to live to my principles, without compromise. That means no debt. Ever.

I'm happy with that. My choices - and because of who this has made me, and what I've learnt about humanity, economics and our society as a whole, I'm confident that I will be able to live a full life (in my own way) regardless. Because to conform to this scam would destroy my soul.

What I remain angry about is the damage that has been done to future generations - whether it's through the absolutely planned destruction of proper education, or just the unwitting enslavement of people who sadly don't have my freedom to consider/understand what has gone on. They are lambs to the slaughter - most people still believe that our political system and banking system is not corrupt.

So....the state of play. Look after your family and those close to you, help them however you can if you are in a position to do so. My family will be fine, because we're a prudent bunch and if something changes, I will help them. I couldn't give two hoots what happens to the price of a house in the UK anymore, although I will continue to bait the people who I feel are parasites wherever possible!

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I still love this forum and I suppose I will always drop by, there are some true shining wits here ;) , although for me personally I have abandoned all plans to buy a house ever again, I am going to sell my transport company and buy a narrow boat in 2016, give up work and spend the rest of my days cruising the canal network. I'll be 57 then and I should have enough of my STR fund left to buy a decent boat and keep myself and it, albeit frugally, until my state pension kicks in.

Good man. My plan is similar, though I have a few more years to go.

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I still love this forum and I suppose I will always drop by, there are some true shining wits here ;) , although for me personally I have abandoned all plans to buy a house ever again, I am going to sell my transport company and buy a narrow boat in 2016, give up work and spend the rest of my days cruising the canal network. I'll be 57 then and I should have enough of my STR fund left to buy a decent boat and keep myself and it, albeit frugally, until my state pension kicks in.

Thats where its at. Canalling it up and down the country. You really see the uk from a different angle coming into town on a narrow boat. Also the people who live along the rivers theyre not really like the rest of the population. They really seem a good lot, ready to share and not get sucked into the system. I remember seeing an old couple in this lovely short wooden canal boat once, in a lock. The boat was superb. I remember thinking, yes thats where i want to be when I am that age. I also read that if you can get across the channel in the thing, you can get down the Seine and all the way through France into the Med. Not sure if thats true or not but by God that sounds like a way to retire.

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The young don't care about houses and have got used to a lower quality of life than their parents enjoyed and understandably lack motivation, those in the middle if they've already bought are just about hanging on and if they haven't they have probably given up on the idea and are waiting for their parents to die.

And who can blame them? It looks to me to be the smart decision.

For those in their twenties/thirties with parents who have benefited from fantasy finance, why not sit back? A kindle full of books, awesome computer games available for £2 giving a weeks entertainment each and as much information on as diverse a range of subjects at their fingertips as there has ever been.

Make some popcorn and enjoy it.

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Thats where its at. Canalling it up and down the country. You really see the uk from a different angle coming into town on a narrow boat. Also the people who live along the rivers theyre not really like the rest of the population. They really seem a good lot, ready to share and not get sucked into the system. I remember seeing an old couple in this lovely short wooden canal boat once, in a lock. The boat was superb. I remember thinking, yes thats where i want to be when I am that age. I also read that if you can get across the channel in the thing, you can get down the Seine and all the way through France into the Med. Not sure if thats true or not but by God that sounds like a way to retire.

You may have been misinformed about the Channel.

Harry - avoid South Birmingham.

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Thats where its at. Canalling it up and down the country. You really see the uk from a different angle coming into town on a narrow boat. Also the people who live along the rivers theyre not really like the rest of the population. They really seem a good lot, ready to share and not get sucked into the system. I remember seeing an old couple in this lovely short wooden canal boat once, in a lock. The boat was superb. I remember thinking, yes thats where i want to be when I am that age. I also read that if you can get across the channel in the thing, you can get down the Seine and all the way through France into the Med. Not sure if thats true or not but by God that sounds like a way to retire.

Mind you, I met a couple recently who have 'retired' to their narrow boat and now rent their 4 bed home in Cambridge to their kids. 'Market rent, we're not subsidising them'.

I didn't know what to say.

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Interesting views people - thanks.

With the odd exception the general consensus appears to be that house prices are going up - which is an interesting view on a forum full of people waiting for a house price crash :unsure:

Short of some major bloack swan event the HPI seems to be very much in place.

Does anyone have any thoughts or views on the wider economy - jobs, inflation, the stock market and, yes, even commodities such as precious metals? Where do you lot think we are now - in an inflationary environment or a deflationary one?

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I still love this forum and I suppose I will always drop by, there are some true shining wits here ;) , although for me personally I have abandoned all plans to buy a house ever again, I am going to sell my transport company and buy a narrow boat in 2016, give up work and spend the rest of my days cruising the canal network. I'll be 57 then and I should have enough of my STR fund left to buy a decent boat and keep myself and it, albeit frugally, until my state pension kicks in.

Given that you are used to the roads, why a narrow boat? I'd have more guessed you might buy a van and convert it into a motor home

I live near canals and see some of them struggling with all the winding at the locks.

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Does anyone have any thoughts or views on the wider economy - jobs, inflation, the stock market and, yes, even commodities such as precious metals? Where do you lot think we are now - in an inflationary environment or a deflationary one?

Oh recent commentary IMHO Marc Faber has it right - and I've been doing what he recently advocated long before that, for the last 3 years now.

Inflation/Deflation - Diversify as much as possible, and hope that by doing so, not everything goes down together.

Jobs - if you have a variety of skills you'll always find work - even for barter if we go that far. Plus you'll be able to deal with things yourself, rather than pay for them if the time comes when you have more time than money.

At this point with stocks, just buy good, well run companies, as always. Do as much research as you can beforehand on any listed company before committing your cash.

If you want to go the index route, then simply buy whenever fear is in the air, and be aware that when the black swan really comes, sell really bloody fast!

Precious metals, have some, why not, they are shiny and make you feel like a prepper.

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