Supertankers

[IMupNorth]

The housing market is like a supertanker, or so they say.

Last year the supertanker was turning round. Prices were dropping, mortgage lending was down etc etc.

Well it looks like the supertanker has turnround again, all indices are in alignment and she's picking up speed.

Just when are you HPC pirates finally going to take over this ship ??? Cos, I wish you'd get on with it !!

Father in law went to the pub on Friday and was talking to a regular. Just happens to be a builder. Builder tells this story about 20 new flats he's just on with in Wakefield. Council have approached him with a 'very good offer' not to put them on the market. Can they rent them from him because they need them for asylum seekers !!!!!! No doubt the council will be furnishing the flats aswell.

Lo, all is well in the property market. Net migration, not including asylum seekers, has just been revised up for last year to 250,000. Pressure at the bottom, will force its way up the chain. Add on affordable debts, stable and growing economy, low inflation. It certainly is different this time.

House price crash - not a snowballs chance in hell !

[dogbox]

House price crash - not a snowballs chance in hell !

MY TOP 5 REASONS TO DOUBT THE CRASH;

* The rise of interest only

* The rise of self - cert

* Lack of trust in traditional savings, bad press for pensions / endowments

* No economic jolt

* Immigration - I used to be pounded by the HPC Intelligencia (esp ZZq) for haing no graphs or stats to back - up this claim, but anyone with 1 eye and 1/2 a brain realises immigration is far greater than official stats reveal

On top of all this we are at the dawn of truly global economic transformations as the developing world at last have gotten thier act togesther

[erranta]

MY TOP 5 REASONS TO DOUBT THE CRASH;

* The rise of interest only

* The rise of self - cert

* Lack of trust in traditional savings, bad press for pensions / endowments

* No economic jolt

* Immigration - I used to be pounded by the HPC Intelligencia (esp ZZq) for haing no graphs or stats to back - up this claim, but anyone with 1 eye and 1/2 a brain realises immigration is far greater than official stats reveal

On top of all this we are at the dawn of truly global economic transformations as the developing world at last have gotten thier act togesther

If we are reduced to a level Global playing field and get £100 per month wages . . . .

How much rent will you get from Brits/immigrants?

How much will your letting properties be worth after the MASSIVE reductions?

How much will you lose?

Would you be able to buy a car @ minimum 5x your annual wage - let alone refuel it with petrol prices rising exponentialy till there is not enough to go around.

Dogbox, you and other property owners better pray it never happens!

[dogbox]

If we are reduced to a level Global playing field and get £100 per month wages . . . .

How much rent will you get from Brits/immigrants?

How much will your letting properties be worth after the MASSIVE reductions?

How much will you lose?

Would you be able to buy a car @ minimum 5x your annual wage - let alone refuel it with petrol prices rising exponentialy till there is not enough to go around.

Dogbox, you and other property owners better pray it never happens!

I sold my B2Ls.

As for reducing wages here, this is another bear stallwart argument that doesnt stand up to scrutiny.

We are all going to get richer as economic transformation occurs accross the world. We own manufacturers in China and India. Our skills our freed - up to suuply the world with all the stuff we do best.

Bears, the glass really is 1/2 full. Go drink.

[London Landlady]

MY TOP 5 REASONS TO DOUBT THE CRASH;

* The rise of interest only

* The rise of self - cert

* Lack of trust in traditional savings, bad press for pensions / endowments

* No economic jolt

* Immigration - I used to be pounded by the HPC Intelligencia (esp ZZq) for haing no graphs or stats to back - up this claim, but anyone with 1 eye and 1/2 a brain realises immigration is far greater than official stats reveal

On top of all this we are at the dawn of truly global economic transformations as the developing world at last have gotten thier act togesther

I read somwhere recently that the Govt says there are (& I can't remember which is correct) either 97 polish plumbers in London or 97 Polish Builders - whichever it is, the figures are understated as there are at least 200 Polish Builders round here.

Just confirming the official stats point.

[right_freds_dead]

the insides is outside, the right sides on the left side.

[ftbSean]

Lo, all is well in the property market. Net migration, not including asylum seekers, has just been revised up for last year to 250,000. Pressure at the bottom, will force its way up the chain. Add on affordable debts, stable and growing economy, low inflation. It certainly is different this time.

House price crash - not a snowballs chance in hell !

mmmm weak...Youre the type of guy who gets excited about large breasts, even when you know they are filled with silicon.

"This is Radio VI reporting on the 1969 Golden Globe Tanker Race...HMS Property has travelled a record 391km in a single day...Skipper Donald Crowhurst communicated his log book details via radio to us this morning....He has become an instant national hero and we will therefore not question the results..."

[right_freds_dead]

iceberg dead ahead...!!!

[erranta]

I sold my B2Ls.

As for reducing wages here, this is another bear stallwart argument that doesnt stand up to scrutiny.

We are all going to get richer as economic transformation occurs accross the world.

Dogbox tell all the people who's jobs have been transfered abroad that - you would be lynched and deserve it. You seem to live in your own "bubble" and oblivious to what is going on around you!

We own manufacturers in China and India. Our skills our freed - up to suuply the world with all the stuff we do best.

What is this Royal "we" you mention??

You are talking about a handfull of institutions.

And tell me exactly.

What do the rest of the UK's 68 million people produce for export that will keep the UK's balance of payments in check, once oil/gas revenues become insignificant in a few years?

[StandupBcounted]

Bears, the glass really is 1/2 full. Go drink.

Beautiful…that old chestnut again.. and that is exactly the kind of thinking why you Bulls will lose everything.

The old adage “are you the kind of person who believes your glass is half full or half empty?” interpretive as “are you an optimist or pessimist?” is the angle the VI’s have been spinning from the out set. Of course little Johnny and Jenny FTB don’t want to be tarred with the brush of pessimists… erhhh nasty little hobbitses…

However, and this has very recently been scientifically proven, pessimists fair much better and live much longer than optimists! True! The reason being is that optimists tend to take more chances in life and take gambles. Yes, they may well make a bob a two along they way at first, but ultimately they are totally unprepared when life chucks them a curved ball or two.

To explain your own use of the ‘half glass full’ syndrome a bit further, lets put it into a real life scenario:

A pessimist and an optimist are out drinking. There is only half an hour left until the bar closes.

The pessimist looks at his glass and thinks ‘my glass is half empty, better go and get another one.’

The optimist looks at his glass and thinks ‘my glass is half full, plenty of time to get another one.’

Unfortunately the optimist is too busy talking and he doesn’t notice that the bar has now closed. The optimist missed his chance, he didn’t prepare for that.

O.k, you ‘optimists’ may well use this and come back with taunts like ‘it just goes to prove that all HPCers are p*** heads, or the optimist saved money not buying a second pint… blah… blah… blah... but you would be missing the point.

How about putting the same reasoning to another scenario. How about you are to set out on a long car journey, would you say my fuel tank is half full or half empty. If you said half full you are increasing your chances of running out of fuel and breaking down on the side of the road! If you said half empty no doubt you will have made preparations to fill up before you start.

Think about it… in life optimists take chances and are often unprepared for difficulties ahead. Pessimists on the other hand are prepared for difficulties ahead and tend not to take chances and plan around them.

Edited November 21, 2005 by StandupBcounted

[Pedro]

I sold my B2Ls.

As for reducing wages here, this is another bear stallwart argument that doesnt stand up to scrutiny.

We are all going to get richer as economic transformation occurs accross the world. We own manufacturers in China and India. Our skills our freed - up to suuply the world with all the stuff we do best.

Bears, the glass really is 1/2 full. Go drink.

Disposable income is going DOWN not up - look at Dr Bubbs graph. Pay rises don't cover the increased council tax, water rates, higher petrol costs (which presumably will eventually filter through to the cost of other goods), higher gas and electricity bills.

[dogbox]

Beautiful…that old chestnut again.. and that is exactly the kind of thinking why you Bulls will lose everything.

However, and this has very recently been scientifically proven, pessimists fair much better and live much longer than optimists!

I am generally a pessimist!

Thats right, I am a pessimist.

The point is, many bears here are mega - pessimists but fail to recognise this fundametal thurth.

I agree in being careful, my wife says I am overly carful compared to the norm', for example I put important home documents in a fire - proof place, I drive with lights on much of the time, I have lots of insurance, I always assume I may go out of business tomorrow and plan this way, I have written instructions in case I die on how to sell my business and how to avoid being ripped - off in the process etc etc.#

The problem for you mega - bears is one of a lack of perpective. I understand we are well poised to well in the global expansion now underway, where as you simply see only downside.

.

[MarkG]

Disposable income is going DOWN not up - look at Dr Bubbs graph.

Indeed. While I agree with dogbox that the rich are going to get richer by exploiting profitable opportunities in the developing world, the poor in the UK (i.e. the middle-class and below) are getting poorer... and they're the ones who buy most of the houses and pay most of the rent.

[El_Pirata]

What you bulls fail to understand about immigration is that the recent wave of immigrants has not come to stay and set up home, just to work here while it makes economic sense to.

I know some Polish people that fly home every weekend on cheap airlines for the same price it would take a northerner living in London to get the train back home. They are not planning on staying and buying a house, they are just taking advantage of a strong (overvalued) pound at the moment. They could vanish overnight.

Take some of the Brazilians I know in London. A year or so ago, the pound was strong and the Real was weak. It made sense for a Brazilian to come over here, do a rubbish job and send money home. In a year they could buy a house, a car...it was no brainer. Now the pound has weakened and the Real has also strengthened significantly. They are moaning to me that they are not making so much money in reals anymore, all of a sudden swapping the sunshine for a London winter doesn't seem like such a great deal. Some are talking very seriously about going home.

Remember in the 80s when all the English brickies and chippies were going to work in Germany? They're not still there now are they?

Just like capital, populations are a lot more fluid these days. When it makes economic sense (strong pound) they will come here. When it doesn't, they will go elsewhere, and take their rent money with them. This will make the HPC even more brutal when it finally arrives

[E Powell]

Dogsbox

I sold my btls all 10 and invested the money in debt management agancies (No names given

I want my annual 20% growth). I am debt fee living in a large house have 4 patents to my

name and published a few books on materials science all available from certain websites.

Do worry all that excessive MEW will come to an end.

UP WITH THE HPC

DEATH TO NEW LABOUR

[erranta]

What you bulls fail to understand about immigration is that the recent wave of immigrants has not come to stay and set up home, just to work here while it makes economic sense to.

I know some Polish people that fly home every weekend on cheap airlines for the same price it would take a northerner living in London to get the train back home. They are not planning on staying and buying a house, they are just taking advantage of a strong (overvalued) pound at the moment. They could vanish overnight.

Take some of the Brazilians I know in London. A year or so ago, the pound was strong and the Real was weak. It made sense for a Brazilian to come over here, do a rubbish job and send money home. In a year they could buy a house, a car...it was no brainer. Now the pound has weakened and the Real has also strengthened significantly. They are moaning to me that they are not making so much money in reals anymore, all of a sudden swapping the sunshine for a London winter doesn't seem like such a great deal. Some are talking very seriously about going home.

Remember in the 80s when all the English brickies and chippies were going to work in Germany? They're not still there now are they?

Just like capital, populations are a lot more fluid these days. When it makes economic sense (strong pound) they will come here. When it doesn't, they will go elsewhere, and take their rent money with them. This will make the HPC even more brutal when it finally arrives

Fantastic stuff! Truly inspired from one who knows - unlike the inflammatory, insular, unsubstantial, bull-shite statements from dear old doggie.

Dogbox

re your statement "We are all going to get richer as economic transformation occurs accross the world"

I informed you a couple of weeks ago that over a period of 110 years (1790-1900) a Million Pounds was worth/bought exactly the same amount!

That period shadows/was during the INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION - the biggest global advance in human history!

So this time it's different? Back it up with proof!

[North London Rent Girl]

Bears, the glass really is 1/2 full. Go drink.

Oh, duh, ok, I'll go out and buy a flat today, shall I? I don't think you get it. WE CAN'T AFFORD IT!! THAT'S WHY WE'RE NOT BUYING!! Sheesh - how many times. These bulls really do have the thickest of skulls.

[StandupBcounted]

I am generally a pessimist!

Thats right, I am a pessimist.

The point is, many bears here are mega - pessimists but fail to recognise this fundametal thurth.

I agree in being careful, my wife says I am overly carful compared to the norm', for example I put important home documents in a fire - proof place, I drive with lights on much of the time, I have lots of insurance, I always assume I may go out of business tomorrow and plan this way, I have written instructions in case I die on how to sell my business and how to avoid being ripped - off in the process etc etc.#

The problem for you mega - bears is one of a lack of perpective. I understand we are well poised to well in the global expansion now underway, where as you simply see only downside.

.

Oh dear dog box you really are confused…I hope your fire proof box is big enough to live in when you need it. Good luck… sincerely

[malco]

The problem for you mega - bears is one of a lack of perpective. I understand we are well poised to well in the global expansion now underway, where as you simply see only downside.

.

I don't think we are. There's been a massive waste of investment in property and consumer baubles that will never yield long term reward - over time, all that investment will simply make the future poorer. We are no longer a striving, innovative nation. Instead, we are run by and large by people who either a) haven't a clue, or b ) prefer to "wait and see". Such sluggish attitudes do not allow a country to prosper in the face of new comptetion. I foresee that Britain outside of the specific City society will slide down the scale of prosperity as we struggle with excess debt and chronic energy shortages. There would have to be a fundamental change in the culture to avert that happening. I just don't see that happening. Not even Mrs Thatcher managed to alter the fundamental flaw in the British culture - the principal motive for success here is to withdraw from the economy and join the rentier classes. In a real economy, the motives are higher, as found in the examples set by Sir Charles Parsons, de Ferranti, Rolls and Royce, Roe, and a whole load of other builders. In Britain today, such people are outsiders like Sir Richard Branson or Sir John Bloor, they are not within the Establishment (Inns of Court, The City, senior Civil Service, old money aristocracy, CBI, IoD; none of these are sources of wealth-creating ideas).

Edited November 21, 2005 by malco

[dogbox]

Dogbox

re your statement "We are all going to get richer as economic transformation occurs accross the world"

I informed you a couple of weeks ago that over a period of 110 years (1790-1900) a Million Pounds was worth/bought exactly the same amount!

That period shadows/was during the INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION - the biggest global advance in human history!

So this time it's different? Back it up with proof!

This is a joke right?

I'll tell the Africans that industrialisation is a waste of time and to stay as they are shall I? Tell them everything you take for granted - schools, books, health, supermarkets is all an illusion?

Go read a book set 100 years ago and see if you still think wealth has'nt percolated far wider now.

[erranta]

This is a joke right?

I'll tell the Africans that industrialisation is a waste of time and to stay as they are shall I? Tell them everything you take for granted - schools, books, health, supermarkets is all an illusion?

Go read a book set 100 years ago and see if you still think wealth has'nt percolated far wider now.

What's a joke?

Most Africans live under corrupt junta's and have done so since Western Governments relinquished power. They have hardly "advanced" one iota since rail and road networks were laid down. They can't even get their act together to build an international Motorway along the spine of Africa!

Only their 'back-hander' leaders are rich ie from embezelling/skimming off economic recovery funds/charity/aid monies!

Look @ the disparity within an OIL rich Country - Nigeria!

Fela Kute tells it all in his songs!

How on earth do you see our world?

[dog]

The housing market is like a supertanker, or so they say.

House price crash - not a snowballs chance in hell !

I agree with the super tanker analogy. The bull market in property survived long after the fundamentals had started to crumble. The market is now showing clear signs of decline and although naieve BTLs and some FTBs are still buying, smart money is staying out of property. The super tanker overshot on the way up and will probably overshoot on the way down as well.

As for your comment about the HPC, that I am afraid is wishful thinking borne out of fear. Fear is a terrible think in markets.

[BoredTrainBuilder]

The super tanker overshot on the way up and will probably overshoot on the way down as well.

Talking of mixed metaphors. Supertankers do lots of things but never overshoot in either vertical direction.

[dogbox]

How on earth do you see our world?

Clearly, unlike you.

I'll try again;

1.) China, India, Vietnam, Brazil are being joined by an ever growing band of nations undertaking industrialisation. This will soon include hitherto untouched areas such as parts of Africa.

2.) These nations will create vast wealth

3.) We benefit by sharing in this wealth as we supply these nations with our services, expertise and some manufactured goods. This will include infrasructure services such as building hospitals and roads, regulatory expertise for thier burgoening insurance, mortgage and Banking markets, the output of the music and TV industry, specialist areas such as dealing with explosives, education, flight training, bio - tech, enviromental commerce such as flood prevention and alternative energy, the list is endless. 'WE' all benefit and house prices go - up.

[dog]

Talking of mixed metaphors. Supertankers do lots of things but never overshoot in either vertical direction.

Exxon Valdiz?