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InlikeFlynn

Land Registry Hpi

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From the Land Registry Twitter feed

"Our September HPI shows a monthly increase of 1.5%. Average house price in England and Wales is now £167,063. Full #HPI out 28 Oct"

Please don't shoot the messenger. It looks like the rises in the Halifax/Nationwide indices are starting to appear in real sold data.

Edited by InlikeFlynn

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Hate to say it, but it's been coming. All those media sources that rarely report on the LR numbers? They'll have a fest with this when it's officially circulated at the end of the month. Let's hope they find Maddie that day...

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Hate to say it, but it's been coming. All those media sources that rarely report on the LR numbers? They'll have a fest with this when it's officially circulated at the end of the month. Let's hope they find Maddie that day...

Sadly, it has been in the pipeline, especially with the crazy london bubble prices.

What is the actual YOY value ?

Still, this is the first time I can remember it being yoy positive for 5 years, was bound to happen eventually.

£90Billion low interest rate give away ( which is destroying peoples savings ) managed to get a tiny uplift in prices over the summer and that was with the full media propaganda machine in operation !!!

Take away this support and the whole thing will just collapse to a decent price level. The greatest fools in London will be screwed for years to come.

Should the people we voted for to sort out this mess really be doing this just to win an election ? I personally think they should be locked up for their actions.

Can anyone tell me what the sales volumes are and the regional breakdown. I'd imagine, take away london and everything else is pretty much as it was.

We only shoot the messenger when we discover the message they sent was not the actual facts.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I think the Haliwide indexes are most based on new build HTB builder discount type mortgage approvals.

I'll be surprised if the land registry ends up by significantly by the end of the year.

Just looked at the latest available land registry data for Northants.

Sales volumes look pretty much like last years and the index is still back at June 2004 prices.

Not changed in 2 years really.

Anything the estate agents tell you to the contrary is B.S.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I think the Haliwide indexes are most based on new build HTB builder discount type mortgage approvals.

I'll be surprised if the land registry ends up by significantly by the end of the year.

Just looked at the latest available land registry data for Northants.

Sales volumes look pretty much like last years and the index is still back at June 2004 prices.

Not changed in 2 years really.

Anything the estate agents tell you to the contrary is B.S.

I think you're right - the Haliwide indices will include lots of newbuilds sold during HTB1. In contrast the method used to construct the Land Registry index requires data from two sales of a property for it to be included.

Out here in the SW prices have been pretty static but volumes do seem to have increased. I will be interested to see the regional breakdown for this months data.

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Good, it might put some pressure on the bubble blowers in Westminster.

I'm confused don't we want the bubble to burst? I thought that us the only way that home ownership will become a possibility rather than a dream. (especially here in London)

Not to wish misfortune on other people but if lots of people start defaulting on second and third homes then that means I got a chance of picking one up!

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As ever, the devil will be in the detail, particularly the contribution of Greater London to the move and size of the uptick in transaction volumes. Osborne has thrown the kitchen sink at it. IMO this kind of month on month growth will not be sustained because it cannot be sustained on earnings, even with the comedy low mortgage rates that are prevailing thanks to the Fed's reluctance to taper and the Bank of England's Funding for Lending Scheme. More likely a last few morons lining up to get saddled with odious debt in exchange for a big mortgage on a crap house.

What a drag!

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I think the Haliwide indexes are most based on new build HTB builder discount type mortgage approvals.

I'll be surprised if the land registry ends up by significantly by the end of the year.

Just looked at the latest available land registry data for Northants.

Sales volumes look pretty much like last years and the index is still back at June 2004 prices.

Not changed in 2 years really.

Anything the estate agents tell you to the contrary is B.S.

Pure comedy gold!

HTB1 was only applicable to new builds.

HTB2 is applicable for existing stock.

You will be surprised the land reg figures for england & wales will be up significantly by the end of the year,because it involves existing stock!

Give peeps easier credit & they'll take it,their only concerned about their monthly payments.

In previous thread,nah i don't work or own Foxtons but my lively hood does depend on property,both in UK & abroad.

Forget peak transactions at peak,they'll never return in UK.

I'm not saying the market won't decline in UK,it has to, the question is when?

when i joined this forum,i mentioned i was 'dealing in london' property' & was derided for saying 80% of prospective purchasers we,re foreign namely Russian or Chinese.Now there's threads years later about foreigners taking over prime parts of London,well stone me!

Don't get me wrong i want a price correction,but with cheap,easier credit the HPC will be postponed to who knows when?

Correct me if i'm wrong but aren't Halifax & Nationwide figures based on mortgage transaction £'s rather than actual sold price £'s aka the land reg data.

Other irrelevant points on this forum,nope the euro's not devalued against GBP since it's introduction.[i still have savings in euro & have not panicked into shifting into GBP]

Even in London[south Wallington] buying wisely at auction you can still achieve a decent rental yield as a btl scum lord.

£120k can buy a 2 bed maisonette free hold with rear garden & parking,but needs a refurb.

Spend £10k on refurb,solicitors,auction fees etc,do most of work yourself =£130k total outlay.

£130k total outlay,annual income £12,000 plus = over 9% return pa,better than a bank account.

Feel free to ridicule my points,post not relevant blah,blah.

What you want & what you get are entirely different.

Cheerio.

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There is a limit to price rises if they are linked to wages but certainly in London there is a disconnect due to the number of foreign investors. Mortgage rates can get lower and of course interest free loans help to fuel price rises and help people to pay more. George and Carney will be looking to get prices up by 20% over the next 18 months .... George's housing boom (not a bubble).

No they can't.

I'd cite the fact that actually they haven't as evidence. Once the fees are rolled in mortgages rates are basically holding steady, (SVRs are actually rising very slowly).

As the express intention of these interventions continues to be posting profits not losses at the UK's zombie banks, it would hardly make any sense if policy resulted in crushing the bank's margin between what they borrow at and what they lend at.

The sad thing is that prices ratchet up and are sticky when coming down as there are no consequences to over extending or over borrowing and even is the economy collapses. Carney will refuse to raise interest rates even as the burning building collapses around him ... like Cagney in White Heat ... 'top of the world'

Nonsense. Wages might be sticky, asset prices not so much. Don't confuse the UKs multi-decade idiotic march to penury via ignored asset price inflation with sticky prices. They're not sticky - they are a story about how are we collectively are dumb enough to be impoverished by clownish high street banks peddling debt. For a long time it was a rare dissident who took the other side of the argument. It seems increasingly that even the dogs in the street have worked out that rising house prices impoverish the many in order to facilitate advancing the interests of an undeserving few who collaborate with a parasitic financial sector, (or something like that!) :P

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No they can't.

I'd cite the fact that actually they haven't as evidence. Once the fees are rolled in mortgages rates are basically holding steady, (SVRs are actually rising very slowly).

As the express intention of these interventions continues to be posting profits not losses at the UK's zombie banks, it would hardly make any sense if policy resulted in crushing the bank's margin between what they borrow at and what they lend at.

^

this

it would hardly make any sense if policy resulted in crushing the bank's margin between what they borrow at and what they lend at.

Even with FLS, HTB etc. UK mortgage rates have risen because US treasury yields have been rising all year.

wk_2013_07_15_mh_1.gif

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£120k can buy a 2 bed maisonette free hold with rear garden & parking,but needs a refurb.

Spend £10k on refurb,solicitors,auction fees etc,do most of work yourself =£130k total outlay.

£130k total outlay,annual income £12,000 plus = over 9% return pa,better than a bank account.

Hmm, your numbers do not seem to match my personal rental in London Zone6:

value in 2010: £300k

value now: about £350k

rent: £1300pm; £15600pa

gross profit before expenses and taxes: 4.5%

- and London prices go up 15% every year; but rents are static and falling a bit

- gross profit on more expensive properties around my place is about 3%

- we have now the benefits cap

- interest rates can go only up and economy is now picking up

- London with all these foreign buyers will end up like Dubai; just question of time

Edited by Damik

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Hmm, your numbers do not seem to match my personal rental in London Zone6:

value in 2010: £300k

value now: about £350k

rent: £1300pm; £15600pa

gross profit before expenses and taxes: 4.5%

Exaggerating local rents to make the investment numbers stack up is a standard bull debating technique. It works because people from outside of the area (or even people from the area who are renting a different property type) won't know what the real market rents are, and there is no equivalent of the Land Registry for rents.

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Even in London[south Wallington] buying wisely at auction you can still achieve a decent rental yield as a btl scum lord.

£120k can buy a 2 bed maisonette free hold with rear garden & parking,but needs a refurb.

Spend £10k on refurb,solicitors,auction fees etc,do most of work yourself =£130k total outlay.

£130k total outlay,annual income £12,000 plus = over 9% return pa,better than a bank account.

Go on then, give us a couple of links to show us how you can buy a property for £120k which needs £10k worth of refurbishment and will rent for £1k a month.

Edit: Do you value your time at £0 per hour?

Edited by Dorkins

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That's an annual figure for wage growth vs a monthly one for HPI.

What's 1.5% MoM annualised?

:(

19.6% equivalent annual rate

- but it's bad statistical practice to extrapolate monthly figures like this

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Well George can soon fix that with an FLS 2 scheme and and enhanced HtB ... no one thought he would do either scheme but he has. George acts like a socio path and cares not a jot for any opinion or outcome of his actions and if he thinks (I use the term loosely) it will help him then he will do it.

How much more can be squeezed from the suppression of rates trick with UK borrowers? Seems like most of the lower LTV people will be on under 4%, and many of the rest should be able to get 5%. If we can accept that the meddling required to get rates to well under 2% for most would be pretty extraordinary then much of the savings have already been made. A few tens of quid per month perhaps, easily diverted to a utility via a 10% price hike.

£100k loan, 25 years repayment monthly amount:

0% £335

1% £380

2% £425

3% £480

4% £535

5% £590

8% £780

Maybe they'll rise a bit, or fall a bit, but dramatic changes leaving people with hundreds extra a month must be impossible.

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I would not put anything beyond George. HtB is a prime example so why would he not take whatever steps are necessary to get mortgage rates down to 1.5% or even 0.1% ... has already done this with savings rates. A few years ago the norm was (assume inflation of 2%) savings rates would be inflation plus 1.5% ie 3.5% and it is now inflation -1.5%.

I don't doubt George has the will, but in practical terms cutting savings rates to 0% is a lot easier and more desireable for banks than pushing borrowing costs well below any sort of reflection of risk. Osborne does not have a free hand here, surely?

George wants easy access to the £4Tn paper housing wealth, but the object is self-defeating if it has to be underwritten by Govt. entirely via guarantees and easy credit schemes.

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From the Land Registry Twitter feed

"Our September HPI shows a monthly increase of 1.5%. Average house price in England and Wales is now £167,063. Full #HPI out 28 Oct"

Please don't shoot the messenger. It looks like the rises in the Halifax/Nationwide indices are starting to appear in real sold data.

Still August on http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/

Surely they haven't delayed it because they knew the storm would be all over the news today? Best to wait until a quiet Tuesday for more effect?

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They've updated it now:

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media/all-releases/press-releases/2013/market-trend-data-september-2013'>http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media/all-releases/press-releases/2013/market-trend-data-september-2013

Proves the 10% per month rise in London is c**p. It's not even 10% in a year.

The rest of the country still declining in real terms when inflation is taken into account.

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Not sure how HTB 2 is anything to do with these figures...I dont think it had even started.

1 £3m house sold will put averages up for 1000 average houses by a coupla percent from say 160,000 average to 163,000 average, a rise of 1.875%

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Not sure how HTB 2 is anything to do with these figures...I dont think it had even started.

1 £3m house sold will put averages up for 1000 average houses by a coupla percent from say 160,000 average to 163,000 average, a rise of 1.875%

Surely lots of people who didn't need to wait for HTB2, could have decided to step in to buy before it started, in anticipation of it making prices rise. Then they make prices rise.

Honest EA has some comments

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=193387&view=findpost&p=909414637

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East Midlands -0.1%

Northants:

Sales volumes:

June 2012 873

June 2013 895 ( 22 more mugs than last year ).

Annual 1.3%

Index still at June 2004 levels.

Spring bounce must have been tiny or didn't happen. ..its going to be a long winter for the agents with their new HTB2 defined asking prices.

All this with money printing for the FLS 0.5% tax payers money give away.

Message for George Osbrone: STOP INTERFERING AND LET THE PRICES FALL !!!!

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