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sam

There Will Be A Crash, But It Could Take Decades

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Nobody more than me thought that this Housing bubble was going to end in tears back in 2003, i was as certain as you could possibly be.

My main reason for the collapse in the property market was DEBT, it was and still is, it was unsustainable in my opinion, but my thoughts on how this is all going to unwind have now changed.

Recently the property market has got a second wind, i just do not know how it keeps doing it, but it does.

This property bubble is going to be taken to the limits, i never thought that a Government would ever be that reckless, but they are going for it. Forget debt or pensions or paying off the capital to all these loans, it is all about surviving today and sod tommorow.

You Guys will get your collapse, but you are going to have a long wait a long time, is it really going to be worth it. Everything crazy about this property bubble that has been said on this Forum is spot on, but if i was some of you lot i would log off and forget the whole thing, nobody is going to be a winner once the crunch finally comes 10 20 or 30 years from now.

Sam

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Nobody more than me thought that this Housing bubble was going to end in tears back in 2003, i was as certain as you could possibly be.

My main reason for the collapse in the property market was DEBT, it was and still is, it was unsustainable in my opinion, but my thoughts on how this is all going to unwind have now changed.

Recently the property market has got a second wind, i just do not know how it keeps doing it, but it does.

This property bubble is going to be taken to the limits, i never thought that a Government would ever be that reckless, but they are going for it. Forget debt or pensions or paying off the capital to all these loans, it is all about surviving today and sod tommorow.

You Guys will get your collapse, but you are going to have a long wait a long time, is it really going to be worth it. Everything crazy about this property bubble that has been said on this Forum is spot on, but if i was some of you lot i would log off and forget the whole thing, nobody is going to be a winner once the crunch finally comes 10 20 or 30 years from now.

Sam

See the thread near the top on Glasgow house prices in last quarter - 12% down.

If that is not a crash I don't know what is.

Winter 2006 (leading into spring 2006) was always going to be the real test of this market. Many slaes this last year have been those capitalising on the final stages of the boom.

I remain convinced that things are turning and the real stats for sales this time next year will be largely all yoy -ve.

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Recently the property market has got a second wind, i just do not know how it keeps doing it, but it does.

I don't know if anyone has read the "Boom and Bust : 2010" book by Fred Harrison, but perhaps his prophecy of a depression around 2010 is more accurate.

If I remember rightly, he predicts that in the next few years, public spending will prop things up. When that money runs out, things will get nasty.

Do I even want to be in this country when that happens ?

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Yes, the bigger the bubble the more and more i want to keep out of it and not tied to debt. I really dont want to be stuck in a japanese style crash, where everything crashes for year after year after year, and your forced to work extra hard all the time to to survive in a crappy flat...

Just think of all that money i will save :P I already have about 30% deposit on a flat, or about 20% deposit on a house just from saving, I will be able to buy outright if things carry on, and prices crash over decades. If i pay in cash for a whole property in 10 years i will be laughing, even if the value continues to decline for a bit. Just imagine how much money i will have saved in the long run by not buying at a long drawn out peak?

Edited by moosetea

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Not sure about 10 20 30 years, true it's gone on a lot longer than me and most on here thought but unless some money gets spent in the shops (and it doesn;t look like anyone has got any money to spend) the jobs will start to go after xmas and that's when we'll see the reality of the situation we've got ourselves into.

Personally I think I can make out the faint crunch noise just off in the distance, it may be muffled by the sound of jingle bells for the time being and then it may be ignored and over powered by auld lang syne but it will be ringing in our ears but feb (IMHO).

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You Guys will get your collapse, but you are going to have a long wait a long time, is it really going to be worth it. Everything crazy about this property bubble that has been said on this Forum is spot on, but if i was some of you lot i would log off and forget the whole thing, nobody is going to be a winner once the crunch finally comes 10 20 or 30 years from now.

I dont really follow you're logic. Look at the graph on the front page of this site. The recent small variotions in house prices are well within expected bounds.

Saying that a soft landing has happend at this point is silly. You cant even make that call for another two years. Most sensible people dont even believe such a thing is concievable.

Personally, without some calamity I dont expect to see significant falls for another year or two. Just to much momentum. But happen they will.

I am betting my financial furure on it happening within a 3 - 5 year time scale. Nothing you, me, Right move or the BOE do will have mutch effect on it I suspect.

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I dont really follow you're logic. Look at the graph on the front page of this site. The recent small variotions in house prices are well within expected bounds.

Saying that a soft landing has happend at this point is silly. You cant even make that call for another two years. Most sensible people dont even believe such a thing is concievable.

Personally, without some calamity I dont expect to see significant falls for another year or two. Just to much momentum. But happen they will.

I am betting my financial furure on it happening within a 3 - 5 year time scale. Nothing you, me, Right move or the BOE do will have mutch effect on it I suspect.

I've said this before, but the main graph is not up to date - and also it's difficult to work out the lower scale with the years.

It looks like an inverse head & shoulders - so it would be useful to get it updated.

the general trend is up.

i'm not a chartist, but someone who is could give a proper view.

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What we have entered over the last 5 years, probably longer, is a culture of Debt is the way to go.

Of course it is going to end at some point, but it seems like the whole country is hell bent on putting their whole future into property right now.

Too many are ignoring pensions(sort that out another day), many will soon gamble the pensions they have already built up on Sipps. Many people will just about anything to get on that property ladder, even though it might mean taking out an interest only mortgage on a shoebox, and again worry about repaying the capital in the future.

It is this "I will sort that out later" attitude that is making me think that it could well take decades before the penny drops, and lets not forget what it is like to repay a long term loan in a low inflation economy, again it takes time before people wake up.

People are sheep, like is said on this board quite often, only problem is that the cliff is still a few miles away.

Sam

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id agree to that. IR financial pressure could help, but even if it does rise its going to be minimal.

look around you. who is homed ?

most people are homed, so they dont see the pressure. whats obvious to us, isnt that clear to the rest. thats why houses can sit on the market overpriced with no viewings, and the sellers wonder whats wrong.

they have been told time and time again with daytime property porn thats housing is doing fine.

the governments tell them the same. boe the same and halifax and the like spew out a daily reassurance.

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i'm not a chartist, but someone who is could give a proper view.

I dont think you have to be a genius to understand it's implications now do you? Occams razor. The simplest explanation is usually correct. No new paradigm exists this time to make me think the graph no longer applies.

The last time round we had soaring stock markets, assian tiger ecconomies, a seemingly untouchable prime misinter who had delivered long term ecconomic prospertity. Housing was an aboslute certainty. It still went to crap because it was a speculative bubble. No different this time. How obviouse can it be?

PS I personally use Mark Twains approach to spelling. "I dont give a dam for any man who cant spell a word at least three different ways".

Edited by jellybean

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Yawn.

Heard it all before................

The Sunday Times

SUN 05 NOV 1989

House prices may rise next spring

BRITAIN'S depressed housing market could pick up much sooner than expected, according to a forecast to be published this week. The Morgan Grenfell bank believes the housing market has reached a point where recovery is in sight. It says rising income...

The Times

TUE 07 NOV 1989

House prices

House prices continued to decline in October, the Halifax Building Society said yesterday . In its latest house price survey, the society said there was a further deceleration in the annual rate of house price inflation in October to 7 per cent, from...

The Times

THU 09 NOV 1989

House prices 'to rise'

Property prices in London, the south-east and East Anglia will recover next year and begin to increase by about 10 per cent a year, according to Morgan Grenfell, the merchant bankers, in a report on the housing market published yesterday. The recover...

The Times

FRI 17 NOV 1989

House prices to recover next year

House prices are expected to reach a turning point in the third quarter of next year after a two-year decline, Charterhouse the merchant and investment banking group said yesterday in its annual study of the housing market. A week ago another firm of... 1990 - HISTORICAL NEWS REPORTS ON HOUSE PRICES

:wacko:

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I'd have to agree with the general point that the OP makes. As it stands there;s still plenty of margin for Peter to borrow from Paul etc. There's no logic or rationality in the drunk who wants to drink himself to death or the technically insolvent who wants to dig a deeper hole. Both are in denial, both will employ every delay tactic available and both have many creative avenues of encouragement and support to delay the inevitable crunchtime.

I maintain my belief that in Ireland, with its proportionatly much larger bubble, we'll "go Japanese" before the crunch. And in doing so, we'll undo years of economic progress.

Every property bear should ask her/himself the following: how much longer can property price growth exceed income growth? And on the downside how long can prices fall and debt payments rise before the crunch? Answer: the event horizon is still a ways off Im afraid.

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Not sure about 10 20 30 years, true it's gone on a lot longer than me and most on here thought but unless some money gets spent in the shops (and it doesn;t look like anyone has got any money to spend) the jobs will start to go after xmas and that's when we'll see the reality of the situation we've got ourselves into.

Personally I think I can make out the faint crunch noise just off in the distance, it may be muffled by the sound of jingle bells for the time being and then it may be ignored and over powered by auld lang syne but it will be ringing in our ears but feb (IMHO).

You are right... my co is dealing with a number of businesses in administration. We will continue to trade them up to christmas and then call it a day unless a buyer can be found.

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Sam

Is it really, my word!

What is it with you people, i have been Bearish on property as the next man, infact i stand to gain a lot if there was a crash.

I am not so stupid though as to just shout down any argument that goes against what i would like to happen, getting all upset with any post that does not wholeheartdly go along with a rapid huge property crash scenario will not make it happen, Grow up.

Sam

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I am betting my financial furure on it happening within a 3 - 5 year time scale. Nothing you, me, Right move or the BOE do will have mutch effect on it I suspect.

Good call!

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It could happen any time now.

Niko...interesting, these old threads you have retrieved.

I have so far resisted the urge to dig up some of Economic Sensation's old posts....

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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