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Progressiv

In Play Gambling

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I know a few people on here trade shares but thats in my mind for the big plays. Just wondering if anyone uses any of the apps I see advertised between the footie?

Just looking at small scale revenue streams. Like putting down a couple of quid and winning a tenner. Not a lot but at least it pays for lunch at work for a couple of days.

As a salary man I don't get overtime so as that supermarket says, every little helps!

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I know a few people on here trade shares but thats in my mind for the big plays. Just wondering if anyone uses any of the apps I see advertised between the footie?

Just looking at small scale revenue streams. Like putting down a couple of quid and winning a tenner. Not a lot but at least it pays for lunch at work for a couple of days.

As a salary man I don't get overtime so as that supermarket says, every little helps!

If you don't know what you're doing, leave it alone.

If your arithmetic is anything other than swift and accurate, leave it alone.

If you care in the least about the outcome, leave it alone.

If you love the adrenalin, leave it alone.

Right, that's dealt with 99.9% of people.

If you're a cold b*stard who understands the relevant sport intimately and cares only about making money from it, and make no mistake, you're not taking the bookies money, you're taking other punter's money, then go for it.

:)

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Welcome to the site.

I don't watch football so I can't comment on the apps you mention.

However I have on occasion thought about betting on things that I think will happen but they don't neatly fit into the sorts of things you can bet on online.

I suppose you should take a note of what you thought would happen, how much you would have bet, and what you would have won.

Do that for a month or so and if it shows a profit "on paper" and you can afford it then risk some real cash.

And carry on keeping those notes and reviewing whether or not you turn a profit.

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Overwhelmingly, you're most likely to lose money hence why bookmakers are highly profitable.

Having said that, what's interesting about sports betting is that it isn't like roulette or blackjack - you really can beat the system in theory and in practice.

And people do.

The problem I see with bet-in-play is that it is far more like rolling a dice. Who the hell can tell if there's going to be a throw in in the next minute? But predicating outright outcomes, people might know about form, tactics and players or insider knowledge of a horse.

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Guest eight

I know a few people on here trade shares but thats in my mind for the big plays. Just wondering if anyone uses any of the apps I see advertised between the footie?

Just looking at small scale revenue streams. Like putting down a couple of quid and winning a tenner. Not a lot but at least it pays for lunch at work for a couple of days.

As a salary man I don't get overtime so as that supermarket says, every little helps!

If you could regularly return 4/1 from gambling you wouldn't need a job.

The only thing I would consider gambling on is football, and only then on the match outcome, and only then before the match has even kicked off. First goalscorer, next goalscorer, all that stuff is too random. Horse racing as far as I can tell is just totally random - you might as well stick it on the roulette wheel.

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Some people taking it far too seriously here I think.

In play betting is a fun way to spice up watching sports. It's not really a substitute for investing because to win enough to make it worthwhile you'd have to stake too much for it to be fun! I like a bit of in play action on football, F1 has loads of things you can bet on and tennis is good because fortunes can swing wildly in the space of a few points. As with all betting only bet what you can afford to lose and you will be OK.

(Also bear in mind that not all broadcasts are completely live!)

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Guest eight

It appears to me there has been a distinct trend of making the bets more and more 'random' and less down to skill (studying 'form' etc), which means that statistically their chances of beating its punters consistently goes up.

I also think if you did start consistently winning big money they would either ban you from the site, shorten your personal odds or make your life miserable in some other way (ie. get their mates in the fraud squad onto you for match fixing, or something).

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I know a few people on here trade shares but thats in my mind for the big plays. Just wondering if anyone uses any of the apps I see advertised between the footie?

Just looking at small scale revenue streams. Like putting down a couple of quid and winning a tenner. Not a lot but at least it pays for lunch at work for a couple of days.

As a salary man I don't get overtime so as that supermarket says, every little helps!

If you are doing real trading you wouldn't be putting down £2 to win multiples of it. You would be putting down a much larger amount than you stand to win. The idea is to pick which way the price moves and when right trade out for a profit whether the selection wins or loses.

For example you back a team for £100 at 2.04 (potential profit £104) thinking the price will drop and it does to 2.00 so then you lay someone else's bet for £100 at 2.00 (potential loss £100). Then you have a potential £4 profit only if the team wins so you could lay £2 at 2.00 and make £2 whether the team wins or loses. Obviously you could rinse and repeat the first two bets, back and lay, to generate profits throughout a game - if you get it right - then close a larger winning position for a profit either way.

Anything else is not trading it's gambling on what you think will win.

As to bookies closing a winning account that is true but trading like the above is more likely to be done on exchanges e.g. Betfair and Betdaq. They charge commission on winning bets. Betfair now do a Premium Charge which is a tax on winners of up to 60% (Sixty percent not a typo!)of profits.

I use the exchanges but I don't trade in the manner above. One thing with football is that there are less movements in price than say horses. With football it's a slow grind unless someone scores a goal or a player is sent off. With horses all it takes is for the jockey on the favourite to get his whip going and all hell breaks loose on the price movements. Watch a race on ATR Sky 415 refreshing the prices for it on Betfair and you will see what I mean. By the way the pictures on ATR are very slow and not to be used for betting in play.

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Very neat - volatility trading. Have you ever done any computer modelling on that?

No.

It's very noticeable that on Betfair the shorter the price of the favourite in a horse race then the more money is "matched" on the race compared to other races at the same meeting. The way Betfair calculate the "matched" figure is that if someone stakes £100 at say 5/1 then they call it £200 matched, doubling the stake but ignoring the liability. It always amazes me how people who have been on Betfair for years still don't understand how useless this matched figure really is. It shows nothing about how much money is really gambled or won. When a favourite is a short price, say odds on at 1.40 (2/5), traders might stake £1,000's backing and laying for just one tick in the price 1.40 to 1.41 i.e. risking £1,000 for £10. This makes the matched figure balloon up (£2,000 per back and lay) but as they trade out the stakes are in reality removed because they were never intended the £1,000 as a gamble on a selection, it was merely a temporary gamble on a price movement.

Betdaq calculate their matched figure differently. £100 at 5/1 is classed as £500 matched as they look at the liability. This inflates their matched figure compared to Betfair when a selection is odds against e.g if odds on £100 at 1.40 would be £140 not the £200 at Betfair.

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Are you saying that as the event proceeds it can suffer from a 'liquidity squeeze' as professionals remove their bets which will make the odds swing more wildly (due to betting firm algos trying to match liabilities)?

Not really.

The scenario about how useless the matched figure is was largely to do with pre-race bets as regards horses. In running things would move too quickly with horses particularly the shorter the distance the race. Though when betting on such as football it could apply in play. For example if a game is currently a draw then as time ticks on and the game nears completion the odds will drop slowly. Then the matched figure in no way reflects what was really gambled on teams rather than price movements.

Maybe I over complicated the thread mentioning the matched figure? I just thought it was worth a mention in relation to trading distorting the figure.

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It certainly is possible to make money betting- I started off with 75 quid in my betfair account and I now have 175. In that time I've paid about £240 for tips mind, so hardly a profitable excercise, but if you don't need to pay to be told what to do, you'd be in the money! :rolleyes:

TBH, if you're just after a bit of quick and fairly easy money I'd start off with matched betting to hoover up all the bookies sign-up bonuses. Various places will tell you how to do it, MSE for starters:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=41

They make you read a warning before you can see the forum, and rightly so, as there are quite a few stories of people botching things badly- hitting lay instead of back on betfair would be one very easy way to get yourself in a pickle, for example!

I wouldn't bother with any of the in-play odds offered by the bookies, as they're very unlikely to match what you can get on Betfair (I only tried Betdaq once when I was desperate to lay off a bet, and found no liquidity at all, albeit on an obscure Swedish match). Of course if you do find better odds than betfair you should back that **** immediately and then lay off the bet! I'd think it would be a once in a blue moon occurence though.

It seems to me that the good action for in-play footy betting is in the correct score and number of goals scored markets. The tipster service I used to subscribe to was a system for betting on over/under 1.5 goals. I suggest watching a few matches with a tablet or laptop to hand and watching how the odds move. For example, the odds on there being fewer than 1.5 goals start to drop quite precipitously after about 10-15 minutes, so if it's a boring match so far you could quite easily skim a bit by backing and then laying a few minutes later- the problem being, of course, that with betfair's 10 second bet matching delay (and the ~5 second delay in the TV transmission), a team can, say, break from a corner and bang in a goal against the run of play before you can close your position.

I've put any idea of sports trading on the back burner for the time being because it's not really a profitable enough use of my time; now I just have the occasional punt when I fancy it. But there's plenty out there to read if you do fancy it, here's a blog I used to read for example:

http://footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/

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I know a few people on here trade shares but thats in my mind for the big plays. Just wondering if anyone uses any of the apps I see advertised between the footie?

Just looking at small scale revenue streams. Like putting down a couple of quid and winning a tenner. Not a lot but at least it pays for lunch at work for a couple of days.

As a salary man I don't get overtime so as that supermarket says, every little helps!

Forget it.

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Forget it.

If the punters are coming out on top, your gambling site won't last long. :blink:

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Guest eight

It certainly is possible to make money betting- I started off with 75 quid in my betfair account and I now have 175. In that time I've paid about £240 for tips mind, so hardly a profitable excercise, but if you don't need to pay to be told what to do, you'd be in the money! :rolleyes:

TBH, if you're just after a bit of quick and fairly easy money I'd start off with matched betting to hoover up all the bookies sign-up bonuses. Various places will tell you how to do it, MSE for starters:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=41

They make you read a warning before you can see the forum, and rightly so, as there are quite a few stories of people botching things badly- hitting lay instead of back on betfair would be one very easy way to get yourself in a pickle, for example!

I wouldn't bother with any of the in-play odds offered by the bookies, as they're very unlikely to match what you can get on Betfair (I only tried Betdaq once when I was desperate to lay off a bet, and found no liquidity at all, albeit on an obscure Swedish match). Of course if you do find better odds than betfair you should back that **** immediately and then lay off the bet! I'd think it would be a once in a blue moon occurence though.

It seems to me that the good action for in-play footy betting is in the correct score and number of goals scored markets. The tipster service I used to subscribe to was a system for betting on over/under 1.5 goals. I suggest watching a few matches with a tablet or laptop to hand and watching how the odds move. For example, the odds on there being fewer than 1.5 goals start to drop quite precipitously after about 10-15 minutes, so if it's a boring match so far you could quite easily skim a bit by backing and then laying a few minutes later- the problem being, of course, that with betfair's 10 second bet matching delay (and the ~5 second delay in the TV transmission), a team can, say, break from a corner and bang in a goal against the run of play before you can close your position.

I've put any idea of sports trading on the back burner for the time being because it's not really a profitable enough use of my time; now I just have the occasional punt when I fancy it. But there's plenty out there to read if you do fancy it, here's a blog I used to read for example:

http://footytradingposts.blogspot.co.uk/

You don' t say! I thought the whole point of gambling was that it was supposed to beat working for a living.

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The 'cash out' element offered by the likes of betfair is a sure fire way to lose money

Take a simple scenario, team X to win is evens, team X not to win is evens (ignore the spread/commission element)

You bet on team X to win. There are 3 things that might happen in play

1- the bet is going against you. Team X are losing. You can not 'cash out' in this scenario (unless you are prepared to take a significant loss)

2 - the bet is in the balance. Team X are drawing . You can either cash out for a medium loss or leave the bet to run

3 - The bet is looking good. You can now cash out or leave the bet to run

Cashing out on option 3 doesnt make sense. You would basically be accepting lower odds than what the match was at the outset. Do this on a consistant basis, and you would soon lose a lot of money. You lose on outcomes 1 & 2. And you dont win what you should have on outcome 1.

The only way this might be useful is if you have early sight of information that others dont have. e.g. You bet on team X to win the superbowl at 15/1 at the start of the season. It is looking quite good, until you hear (before most others) that the star Quarteback is out injured for the rest of the season. You quickly cash out & take a profit before the odds lengthen.

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The 'cash out' element offered by the likes of betfair is a sure fire way to lose money

Take a simple scenario, team X to win is evens, team X not to win is evens (ignore the spread/commission element)

You bet on team X to win. There are 3 things that might happen in play

1- the bet is going against you. Team X are losing. You can not 'cash out' in this scenario (unless you are prepared to take a significant loss)

2 - the bet is in the balance. Team X are drawing . You can either cash out for a medium loss or leave the bet to run

3 - The bet is looking good. You can now cash out or leave the bet to run

Cashing out on option 3 doesnt make sense. You would basically be accepting lower odds than what the match was at the outset. Do this on a consistant basis, and you would soon lose a lot of money. You lose on outcomes 1 & 2. And you dont win what you should have on outcome 3

The only way this might be useful is if you have early sight of information that others dont have. e.g. You bet on team X to win the superbowl at 15/1 at the start of the season. It is looking quite good, until you hear (before most others) that the star Quarteback is out injured for the rest of the season. You quickly cash out & take a profit before the odds lengthen.

correction above - outcome 3

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