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Ash4781

Sep Inflation Numbers

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Sep' rpi of 3.2% more than likely sets the business rate bill rises for next year. I am not sure if any other items eg welfare payments referenced to the Sep inflation.

From what I saw of the bbc cpi analysis strong price rises in food. I dont have a link to the actual ons report. Energy, food, house prices all strongly rising.

Edited by Ash4781

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Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) tweeted at 9:40 am on Tue, Oct 15, 2013:

Now let me see CPI is 2.7% and HPI is 3.8% so when you put them together you get CPIH at 2.5% ! Who invented that should be ashamed! #BoE

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Sep' rpi of 3.2% more than likely sets the business rate bill rises for next year. I am not sure if any other items eg welfare payments referenced to the Sep inflation.

From what I saw of the bbc cpi analysis strong price rises in food. I dont have a link to the actual ons report. Energy, food, house prices all strongly rising.

Annual CPI rates in September:

Food and non-alcoholic beverages +4.3%

Housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels +4.2%

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_329287.pdf

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Just read the BBC article, seemed to be blabbing about air fares for the most part, obviously a big worry for everyone.

Yoda (@JediEconomist) tweeted at 1:22 pm on Tue, Oct 15, 2013:

@Frances_Coppola Working class families take starship on holiday often they do not, but drive to work they will everyday.

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Shaun Richards (@notayesmansecon) tweeted at 9:40 am on Tue, Oct 15, 2013:

Now let me see CPI is 2.7% and HPI is 3.8% so when you put them together you get CPIH at 2.5% ! Who invented that should be ashamed! #BoE

(

)

CPIH currently measures OO housing costs rising at only 1% p.a. This is supposedly based on the equivalent market rent if the house was let privately.

Meanwhile imputed OO rent in the GDP calcs (ostensibly measuring the same thing) is currently showing an inflation rate of around 6% p.a.

That's why the ONS should be ashamed.

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Just digging down into the inflation figures. These numbers tally's with my experience in the shops prices and the pound in my pocket. Within the food subcategory year on year price rises are very strong, and trending. Trending and even stronger through the energy category too. British gas +9% is actually getting worse. I wonder if the MPC dig down into the CPI detail because what I'm seeing would cause alarm?

edit: I need to learn tables

(Year on year)

2013 2013 2013 2013

Jun Jul Aug Sep

3.9 4.4 4.7 4.8 01.1 Food

3.8 4.6 4.7 4.3 01.1.1 Bread and cereals

4.0 4.9 4.9 5.2 01.1.2 Meat

4.1 3.4 4.2 2.9 01.1.3 Fish

0.5 0.6 1.8 1.6 01.1.4 Milk, cheese and eggs

5.1 2.5 6.0 1.4 01.1.5 Oils and fats

7.5 10.2 8.5 11.3 01.1.6 Fruit

5.2 5.3 5.9 6.9 01.1.7 Vegetables including potatoes and tubers

2.9 3.9 3.5 2.6 01.1.8 Sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery

3.7 1.1 3.5 2.9 01.1.9 Food products (nec)

2013 2013 2013 2013

Jun Jul Aug Sep

4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 04.4 Water supply and misc. services for the dwelling

3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 04.4.1 Water supply

5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 04.4.3 Sewerage collection

8.0 8.2 7.8 7.7 04.5 Electricity, gas and other fuels

7.7 8.1 8.1 8.1 04.5.1 Electricity

8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 04.5.2 Gas

6.2 6.3 -0.7 -1.0 04.5.3 Liquid fuels

2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 04.5.4 Solid fuels

Source: ONS

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/cpi/consumer-price-indices/september-2013/consumer-price-inflation-reference-tables.xls

Edited by Ash4781

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Carney will use this figure to show there is no housing bubble ... he must be relieved the ONS have invented CPIH so he doesn't have to do anything and upset George who is hoping for a bubble ... sorry a housing boom which is different from a bubble. A boom means the growth is 'locked' in but George and Carney have never defined what a 'bubble' is so of course there can never be one.

I'm not sure how much of a boom they'll get after seeing the wage growth numbers last week. I suppose they could loosen up the lending criteria (they seem to cap at multiplier 4X). Even that 4X seems high if general prices are rising at 5%+. If they do start loosening the multipliers well remember what happened last time!

Oh I should add word is council tax will have to start rising joining the 5%+ party in next few years.

Edited by Ash4781

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