Im Supprised To Be Honest

[macbeth79]

Which means the US are moving ever closer to the inevitable rise in interest rates which I've always said will be the thing that finally crashes our economy and causes house prices to tank. How are people going to able to find disposable income to buy goods, which is what a recovery needs, if their mortgage payment goes up by £3,000-£4,000 a year?

Just a 2% rise in rates means £4,000 a year on a £200,000 IO mortgage and there's no guarantee that they won't go up by much more than that, when the US sneezes, we'll catch the mother of all colds.

Again, it's just stuffed suits peddling propaganda because they have a vested interest in doing so.

Scary, if and when that happens it is not going to be fun.

[winkie]

Really, do you write this stuff with a straight face?

lol.....the new jobs created are mainly low paid jobs with few benefits, manufacturing exports are up because of the low value of the pound...import cost are up causing living costs to rise....house prices are up because interest rates are down and savings are in effect being eroded away, pension annuities pay far less than ever before.... more is giving you less....so for most of us we are mainly worse off.

[mfp123]

partly the point im making is that we did collapse, the economy did tank. we are inside the fall in living standards over the past 5 years, right now.

so to say living standards have dropped, wages have been stagnant, thats correct, it happened. were at that place, the high life is over.

were in a different proposition to 2007 because weve gone from expecting a new reality to living that new reality.

tomorrow however is a different story, and the current indicators are that things are turning. it is approaching 7 years down the line now and i think its important to not keep pretending as though it is 2007 because were in a different situation.

Edited October 6, 2013 by mfp123

[gf3]

unemployment has been relatively flat for a while now , but the economy has seen a large loss of jobs in the public sector and a large increase in jobs in the private sector 1.7 million, so there has been some rebalancing in the structure of the economy over the past 3-4 years.

.

Good news when the royal mail gets privatised there will be even less public sector jobs and more private sector jobs.

[winkie]

[SuperChimp]

At first I had given up replying to you but I can't let this one go.

the high life is over.

Very few people had enjoyed the 'high life' up to 2007. You think a foreign-made car, an IO mortgage and two holidays a year to Spain is the high life? The reality of the boom-years for these families was 2 full-time jobs just to break even. No pension contributions because they couldn't afford it. A 4x joint income mortgage just to afford a semi-detached suburban house that their parent's bought on one salary.

The real benefactors from this debt-based monetary system have been the bankers. The same amount of money is in the system as there was in 2007, just more and more is being hoovered up by the banking industry and the last vestige of the middle class is being destroyed.

Zero-hour contracts and Working Tax Credit is the future for most until the government collapses under the debt burden.

Just because the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail publish a couple of positive statistics means nothing. The underlying trend has not changed at all since 2007. If it had there would be no need for QE. There would be no need for Help to Buy. There would be no need for 0.5% interest rates. Government borrowing would be falling not rising.

[The Masked Tulip]

I think we undestimated how fecked:

1. Millions of mortgagees are.

2. Banks are.

3. The country is.

Hence everything has been done to protect 1 and 2, and by definition, 3.

[DabHand]

partly the point im making is that we did collapse, the economy did tank. we are inside the fall in living standards over the past 5 years, right now.

so to say living standards have dropped, wages have been stagnant, thats correct, it happened. were at that place, the high life is over.

were in a different proposition to 2007 because weve gone from expecting a new reality to living that new reality.

tomorrow however is a different story, and the current indicators are that things are turning. it is approaching 7 years down the line now and i think its important to not keep pretending as though it is 2007 because were in a different situation.

This reminds me of a recent Indian Outsourcing, where the remaining onshore staff were asked a series of questions once a month as part of a "process health check" (or some nonsense).

One of the questions was: do they meet your expectations? To which the answer month after month was resounding NO! This would be qualified, stating that they were sold as all singing - all dancing experts, and they were no better than bottle collectors.

The wisdom of asking the same question over and over again was also challenged. They got no better and in fact the near 100% staff turnover combined with better ones getting more opportunity to leave meant that the remains consisted of (apologies in advance) "greenhorns and retards".

It was obvious that one of the managers objectives was to get a YES to this question (and others), and so he was asked how he ever expected to get this mythical YES.

Answer: "Well, l figured you would have lowered your expectations by now, and therefore they would meet them."

*********

I think the relevant point l am trying to make is, we certainly don't expect much from them these days, but that doesn't make them any better, they're still greenhorns and retards!

[plummet expert]

been waiting for 6 years for crash and its just not happening. isn't it time to just accept the government (which ever one is in) will do what ever is needed to keep the economy/house prices high, as so much of the UK economy relies on the housing market.

Thr thing is the the Uk economy does not rely on the housing market. It is being thoroughly distorted by it and has been for over 50 yrs now. Many of our problems are relate to our handling of home ownership. We are now living in a society that has allowed massive borrowing to increase the price of land to such an extent that it causes all normal investment in the means of production - the wealth creating part of the economy - to be skewed by the temptation to invest in property instead. Homes should be steady, income based items that do not encourage speculation of the gross sort seen in Britain today. If all we do is spend our time hoping for price rises so we can remortgage and spend unearnt money which is not real wealth - then we will repeat the cycle of quite serious boom and bust over and over. This simply does not happen in most countries - ie Germany - their wages need not be so high because the cost to have a roof over your head is much lower.

This gOt like all the others have abandoned their initial common sense of rebalancing the economy, with ' I know, lets pump up the property market to win the next election'. Pure and simple sugar fix economics which will have a BIG cost in the end. :angry:

In my vision, we would not need any 'shared ownership' schemes. We would not need 4.5 x joint incomes mortgages to buy a tiny home. We would not need to discuss a shortage of suitable homes, or talk of first ime buyers pushing 40. No, there would be a simple enforced formula for home pricing and therefore land pricing. It works in other countries and they are the richer for it. The reason we stand as the 7th Largest economy but struggle with a our standard of living is purely because of our housing, planning and primarily our lendind policies. In addition we have a lousy policy on BTL and social housing. It either allows easy private profit and insecure tenancies, or provides too few sensible housing options because too few homes have been built for about 15 yrs.

The Govt does not care about anything except securing your vote for the tories. I might have been one, but they now deserve no respect and missed the chance to put the housing market straight.

[dances with sheeple]

Scary, if and when that happens it is not going to be fun.

I will probably be laughing.

[mfp123]

This reminds me of a recent Indian Outsourcing, where the remaining onshore staff were asked a series of questions once a month as part of a "process health check" (or some nonsense).

One of the questions was: do they meet your expectations? To which the answer month after month was resounding NO! This would be qualified, stating that they were sold as all singing - all dancing experts, and they were no better than bottle collectors.

The wisdom of asking the same question over and over again was also challenged. They got no better and in fact the near 100% staff turnover combined with better ones getting more opportunity to leave meant that the remains consisted of (apologies in advance) "greenhorns and retards".

It was obvious that one of the managers objectives was to get a YES to this question (and others), and so he was asked how he ever expected to get this mythical YES.

Answer: "Well, l figured you would have lowered your expectations by now, and therefore they would meet them."

*********

I think the relevant point l am trying to make is, we certainly don't expect much from them these days, but that doesn't make them any better, they're still greenhorns and retards!

and the point i would make is that if the poor staff became the norm, and then better staff appeared, but not quite up to the original expectations, that doesnt mean things arent improving, wont improve.

you have a different base. theres no point using the barometer of a high standard if its not the reality anymore.

a company might be growing compared to the last 2 years but not be as good as 7 years ago.

were not trying to grow from 2007, were trying to grow from the current situation of 2013.

[dances with sheeple]

partly the point im making is that we did collapse, the economy did tank. we are inside the fall in living standards over the past 5 years, right now.

so to say living standards have dropped, wages have been stagnant, thats correct, it happened. were at that place, the high life is over.

were in a different proposition to 2007 because weve gone from expecting a new reality to living that new reality.

tomorrow however is a different story, and the current indicators are that things are turning. it is approaching 7 years down the line now and i think its important to not keep pretending as though it is 2007 because were in a different situation.

No, reality has been postponed by money printing and low interest rates. A new reality for UK sheeple will be higher rates and realising that the property they borrowed 200k for is worth 80 - 100k if they are lucky, that will be the new dawn, those that stayed clear of big mortgage debts can then have a laugh and decide if it is even worth buying.

[tinker]

No, reality has been postponed by money printing and low interest rates. A new reality for UK sheeple will be higher rates and realising that the property they borrowed 200k for is worth 80 - 100k if they are lucky, that will be the new dawn, those that stayed clear of big mortgage debts can then have a laugh and decide if it is even worth buying.

Reminds me of the parable of the tortoise and the hare.

The UK economy is all very emperor's new clothes, isn't it?

[Harry Monk]

and the point i would make is that if the poor staff became the norm, and then better staff appeared, but not quite up to the original expectations, that doesnt mean things arent improving, wont improve.

you have a different base. theres no point using the barometer of a high standard if its not the reality anymore.

a company might be growing compared to the last 2 years but not be as good as 7 years ago.

were not trying to grow from 2007, were trying to grow from the current situation of 2013.

As a Limited Company owner myself working in freight transport, one of the best barometers of the economy there is, I can tell you that things aren't getting any better. Less freight is being moved by the week. If Joe Public isn't buying it, I sure as shit won't be moving it. Read "Commercial Motor" if you want to see how the economy is doing.

Need a 40' shipping container sent to Australia? Yours for £1,995. I've never known prices like it. Even two years ago it would have cost more to send one to Italy.

I will be perfectly honest, you have the smell of "vested interest" in everything you have posted so far.

[The Masked Tulip]

Just stop and think for a moment.

Look at all the posts we have had about the High Street going bust - everything from small shops to huge national chains going under... and still those fecking EA firms survive!!!

[Tankus]

Many have been waiting 13 years

Those that have waited 13 years must be kicking themselves , had they bought then ,they would have paid off the bulk of the mortgage at historically the lowest interest rates ever , and see their gaff go up in "value". Harsh gamble either way.

The only certainty that I have is that the golden age for the majority of pensioners is now coming to an end . Not a clue for the rest of it .

[DarkHorseWaits-NoMore]

No, reality has been postponed by money printing and low interest rates. A new reality for UK sheeple will be higher rates and realising that the property they borrowed 200k for is worth 80 - 100k if they are lucky, that will be the new dawn, those that stayed clear of big mortgage debts can then have a laugh and decide if it is even worth buying.

A possibility but I suspect that by the time higher interest rates return, the central bank printing would have been significantly large enough to keep the property price at 200k, whilst 200k worth of paper will only be worth about 80k, along with the deflated purchasing power of wages. For most people it will be how to loose the least among all loosers (of the 99% that is).

Where can you put cash (for a future house purchase) to avoid being trashed? Lucky timing of stock markets and metals, switching in and out to swing against the winds of inflation an busts. Most won't be in such a liquid position or have the balls and wisdom to trade and successfully gamble at the correct time, even if such a strategy works at all. I am resigned to getting screwed (no choice, out of time) but at least my family will have a shelter, just praying inflation to be useful, of debts, wages and then rate hikes. Who knows?

[dothemaths]

Many have been waiting 13 years

Indeed

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

At first I had given up replying to you but I can't let this one go.

Very few people had enjoyed the 'high life' up to 2007. You think a foreign-made car, an IO mortgage and two holidays a year to Spain is the high life? The reality of the boom-years for these families was 2 full-time jobs just to break even. No pension contributions because they couldn't afford it. A 4x joint income mortgage just to afford a semi-detached suburban house that their parent's bought on one salary.

The real benefactors from this debt-based monetary system have been the bankers. The same amount of money is in the system as there was in 2007, just more and more is being hoovered up by the banking industry and the last vestige of the middle class is being destroyed.

Zero-hour contracts and Working Tax Credit is the future for most until the government collapses under the debt burden.

Just because the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail publish a couple of positive statistics means nothing. The underlying trend has not changed at all since 2007. If it had there would be no need for QE. There would be no need for Help to Buy. There would be no need for 0.5% interest rates. Government borrowing would be falling not rising.

+1 post of the week. It's nice to here some comment from the non-brainwashed.

The recovery propaganda is not just restricted to the UK, Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail. They have actually managed to co-ordinate global propaganda. Whether it is intentionally coordinated or just a bunch of desperate governments watching and coping each other is up for debate.

[Bear Necessities]

We are in a worse position than 2007

Why?

Because since then the government has already done all of the interest rate cutting, QE (law of diminishing returns - it gets less effective each time), bank bailouts and other money manipulations, so this time around they have nowhere left to go (hence Help to Buy etc, which are the last gasp efforts to secure another election "win")

When it crashes this time it's going Hindenburg.

[Bland Unsight]

Those that have waited 13 years must be kicking themselves , had they bought then ,they would have paid off the bulk of the mortgage at historically the lowest interest rates ever , and see their gaff go up in "value". Harsh gamble either way.

The only certainty that I have is that the golden age for the majority of pensioners is now coming to an end . Not a clue for the rest of it .

Yeah, right.

Paid off.

As of December 2011,2.6m residential interest only mortgages represented 29.4% of all residential mortgages (by case volume), with 0.5m part and part mortgages accounting for 5.6%.

Source: Financial Conduct Authority

Meanwhile, back in the real world, to pay off a mortgage involves, well, how should I put it best - amortizing the capital?

At some point, people will come to understand that their houses didn't do anything interesting (because they were made of brick and thus essentially incapable of doing anything interesting) and that they didn't do anything interesting (and evidence to that was the fact that their house managed to out earn them) and perhaps in time they might come to understand the blindingly obvious fact that the only change that occurred was that the structure of credit within which their economic lives were embedded were transformed.

If your house is a cash machine, what it's printing is worthless. End of.

Edited October 6, 2013 by ChairmanOfTheBored

[Tankus]

What is the "real" world.....?

Plenty of people on here who STR'd or paid off their mortgage well before the 25 year term.

[singlemalt]

Brilliant post. Well put.

+1

[NorthamptonBear]

the economy is in a recovery.

i dont think anyone really believes the economic outlook is worse than it was in 2007. things have stabilised.

there have been hardly any repossessions and people have had an extra 6 years to pay off their debts.

the economy may not be great but its better than it was, growth is rising, services and manufacturing data is up, confidence is up, employment is stable and falling slightly. house prices and home sales appear to be rising.

rents are higher, prices outside of london did fall or have at least stayed stagnant, allowing real house prices to fall based on inflation.

i think people looking to pick up cheap properties in an all out collapse hope for this for their own sake rather than expect it to happen.

over the past 6 years people have toughed it out, with rising prices and lower standards of living which is reflective of the rebalancing of the economy and where we are at.

Government money printing and subsidising of the banksters has a multiplier effect and there is more money out there for debt junkies.

The economic outlook is worse as there is greater debt and more people in debt than in 2007 - the low interest rates have encouraged more people to borrow more. I believe things are worse.

Hardly any repos - agreed as some of the worst lenders with worst borrowers would be bankrupt if they had to value their loans correctly. Instead loads of people have stopped paying a mortgage for months/years and they're allowed to do it. As living costs are higher / wages lower (for many of the worst off borrowers) and some idiots have taken on more debt - there probably hasn't been that much paid back. Not as much as people should have.

The economy is in terrible shape, the life sucked out of it by huge (housing) debts, low wages, high inflation and a falling pound. Asking prices higher, the ones that sell are generally sensibly priced. Lots of reductions around my way as an attempt to sell the house this year rather than next March.

Most people concerned at high houses prices recognise a bubble and understand how evil and pernicious high housing costs are. They are also sensible, logical and knowledgeable people who know that historically all bubbles burst. These people care for themselves and others in varying degrees. Most of them are more concerned for the welfare of others than the traitorous selfish scum that are trying to price people out of a necessity for life - housing.

Rents falling around here now. Inflation in costs (petrol, food) - not wages. So less affordable even outside London bubble.

People turning to credit cards to pay mortgages / rent. Higher rent arrears. Non payment of mortgages allowed by banks. Huge numbers of refusals for new credit cards. Rise of payday lending to cover mortgage / rent. Much less maintenance of properties, kinds of reminds me of descriptions of shabbiness in WW2. A slow grinding down of living standards all for high house prices, land bankers (builders) and bankers!

[billybong]

The other way the UK is worse off is the total loss of credibility of the main political parties and the BoE.

In 2010 Labour had reinforced it's reputation for incompetence. The Conservatives had seemed to talk the talk but have now shown themselves to be followers of crazy economic policies as well as unprincipled money printers. The LibDems have firmly grabbed the opportunity to lose credibilty with the tuition fees scandal and their general stance on most things.

The BoE started in 1997 with a reasonable reputation for responsibility when they were officially handed their interest rate and control of inflation role but they now stand firm as money printers, blatant inflators and Libor deniers etc. As well as being mainly interested in keeping their own pensions safe and inflation proofed whilst helping to ruin most everyone else's.

Edited October 7, 2013 by billybong