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cypher007

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been waiting for 6 years for crash and its just not happening. isn't it time to just accept the government (which ever one is in) will do what ever is needed to keep the economy/house prices high, as so much of the UK economy relies on the housing market.

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been waiting for 6 years for crash and its just not happening. isn't it time to just accept the government (which ever one is in) will do what ever is needed to keep the economy/house prices high, as so much of the UK economy relies on the housing market.

Well from my point of view rents are dropping, sales volumes are half what they were at the peak, food shop is not too expensive, and I don`t drive a car any more. Don`t really get the economy/house prices high narrative. The UK economy is on it`s a*rse probably because the housing market is as well?

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been waiting for 6 years for crash and its just not happening. isn't it time to just accept the government (which ever one is in) will do what ever is needed to keep the economy/house prices high, as so much of the UK economy relies on the housing market.

You cannot 'beat' or 'manipulate' the market forever. Look at what has happened to the value of Sterling since the crash. Look at the growth in pension liabilities. The market always balances out in the end to find fair value. They can QE to infinity if they like but the market always corrects. Look to history and you will see that the longer a market is manipulated the greater the crash at the end.

I've mentioned before that Help to Buy is a very desperate move by the government and suggests they have ran out of ways to substantially expand the money supply. This is the end game.

As Executive Sadman pointed out above we are in a worse economic position than in 2007. Add to this that the USA is in a mess financially as are most EU states, our major trading partners.

Just watch the value of the currency and the UK guild prices. They will lead the way.

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We're in unchartered waters, so predictions are difficult. Something is definitely up though wouldn't you say? 6 years on from the crisis finally entering the general publics conscience (where it took bank failures before the herd looked up from the credit they have been grazing on for 8 years) and all is still not well in the simple folks every day lives. Pay rises gone, jobs at risk, why does everything keep going up in price? And hpc views are in the mainstream, look at the reaction against help to buy.

It took a decade and a banking crisis for the views here to finally penetrate some of the thick skulls of the every day joe out there, but penetrate it has. Sort of. Progress is slow but there is progress.

I'll need to buy at some point and if things are the same I'll buy the best value lowest outlay property I can so Im less exposed to where this ends up. Im starting to view the whole thing as an entertainment nowadays.

One thing is more certain in my mind now than before - those holding out for the next generation to pay crazy sums for their property in the expectation of retiring on it are scr3wed, the young don't want it now, its just not worth it to them. You hold the treat out of the dogs reach for long enough and the dog will just stop jumping for it and find something better to do.

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We're in unchartered waters, so predictions are difficult. Something is definitely up though wouldn't you say? 6 years on from the crisis finally entering the general publics conscience (where it took bank failures before the herd looked up from the credit they have been grazing on for 8 years) and all is still not well in the simple folks every day lives. Pay rises gone, jobs at risk, why does everything keep going up in price? And hpc views are in the mainstream, look at the reaction against help to buy.

It took a decade and a banking crisis for the views here to finally penetrate some of the thick skulls of the every day joe out there, but penetrate it has. Sort of. Progress is slow but there is progress.

I'll need to buy at some point and if things are the same I'll buy the best value lowest outlay property I can so Im less exposed to where this ends up. Im starting to view the whole thing as an entertainment nowadays.

One thing is more certain in my mind now than before - those holding out for the next generation to pay crazy sums for their property in the expectation of retiring on it are scr3wed, the young don't want it now, its just not worth it to them. You hold the treat out of the dogs reach for long enough and the dog will just stop jumping for it and find something better to do.

Brilliant post. Well put. :)

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the economy is in a recovery.

i dont think anyone really believes the economic outlook is worse than it was in 2007. things have stabilised.

there have been hardly any repossessions and people have had an extra 6 years to pay off their debts.

the economy may not be great but its better than it was, growth is rising, services and manufacturing data is up, confidence is up, employment is stable and falling slightly. house prices and home sales appear to be rising.

rents are higher, prices outside of london did fall or have at least stayed stagnant, allowing real house prices to fall based on inflation.

i think people looking to pick up cheap properties in an all out collapse hope for this for their own sake rather than expect it to happen.

over the past 6 years people have toughed it out, with rising prices and lower standards of living which is reflective of the rebalancing of the economy and where we are at.

Edited by mfp123

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the economy is in a recovery.

i dont think anyone really believes the economic outlook is worse than it was in 2007. things have stabilised.

there have been hardly any repossessions and people have had an extra 6 years to pay off their debts.

the economy may not be great but its better than it was, growth is rising, services and manufacturing data is up, confidence is up, employment is stable and falling slightly. house prices and home sales appear to be rising.

rents are higher, prices outside of london did fall or have at least stayed stagnant, allowing real house prices to fall based on inflation.

i think people looking to pick up cheap properties in an all out collapse hope for this for their own sake rather than expect it to happen.

over the past 6 years people have toughed it out, with rising prices and lower living standards of living which is reflective of the rebalancing of the economy and where we are at.

But how does that work when inflation is running at 3% (and real life inflation is probably 7-8%) and annual pay rises have just fallen back from 1.1% to 1% with no sign of those ratios improving?

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But how does that work when inflation is running at 3% (and real life inflation is probably 7-8%) and annual pay rises have just fallen back from 1.1% to 1% with no sign of those ratios improving?

because we needed to see spending fall and the economy to contract and standards of living to fall.

weve seen that and are seeing that, which brings us closer to reality in terms of where we should be.

for the average person theres no more mewing, no more millions of BTL loans, no more taking 3 holidays abroad and buying up range rovers. people have had to feel the pinch and we have felt the pinch. people are more frugal and have readjusted their lives to bring them back to equilibrium.

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been waiting for 6 years for crash and its just not happening. isn't it time to just accept the government (which ever one is in) will do what ever is needed to keep the economy/house prices high, as so much of the UK economy relies on the housing market.

Many have been waiting 13 years :o

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because we needed to see spending fall and the economy to contract and standards of living to fall.

weve seen that and are seeing that, which brings us closer to reality in terms of where we should be.

for the average person theres no more mewing, no more millions of BTL loans, no more taking 3 holidays abroad and buying up range rovers. people have had to feel the pinch and we have felt the pinch. people are more frugal and have readjusted their lives to bring them back to equilibrium.

I do agree that it is now fashionable to be frugal and not to be showy about flashing bling be it bought or borrowed......I do agree that people are readjusting.....I do agree that people are trying to live within the income they receive....they are learning that they will become richer longer-term that way.....some have always lived that way. ;)

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i think the game changer if were honest was QE. no one saw that coming because it never happened before. without QE house prices would have inevitably collapsed.

it was morally wrong in terms of a moral hazard point of view, bailing out banks was also wrong in the same way but it happened so unfortunately people have had to foot the bill for other peoples mistakes.

the rules of the game changed and thats simply the reality.

inflation is effectively a slow motion default of debt and thats what were seeing. the people who racked up the debt have been given a reprieve.

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i dont think anyone really believes the economic outlook is worse than it was in 2007. things have stabilised.

I do.

The UK government's debt is higher than in 2007. The government is borrowing £120 billion per year which is not due to fall as far as I can see.

We have maintained a huge trade deficit even though the currency has fallen in value.

And to top it all the government is struggling to increase the money supply which will lead to bankruptcies and deflation.

there have been hardly any repossessions and people have had an extra 6 years to pay off their debts.

Because the banking system was bailed out. What do you think 0.5% interest rates are there for? And eventhough people have had that amount of time to pay off debt guess what....most people haven't.

the economy may not be great but its better than it was, growth is rising, services and manufacturing data is up, confidence is up, employment is stable and falling slightly. house prices and home sales appear to be rising.

See above. And employment is not stable in the slightest.

allowing real house prices to fall based on inflation.

That is not how inflation works.

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i think the game changer if were honest was QE. no one saw that coming because it never happened before. without QE house prices would have inevitably collapsed.

it was morally wrong in terms of a moral hazard point of view, bailing out banks was also wrong in the same way but it happened so unfortunately people have had to foot the bill for other peoples mistakes.

the rules of the game changed and thats simply the reality.

inflation is effectively a slow motion default of debt and thats what were seeing. the people who racked up the debt have been given a reprieve.

QE was to keep interest rates down..........Since the end of the war there has always been inflation. ;)

http://safalra.com/other/historical-uk-inflation-price-conversion/

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because we needed to see spending fall and the economy to contract and standards of living to fall.

weve seen that and are seeing that, which brings us closer to reality in terms of where we should be.

for the average person theres no more mewing, no more millions of BTL loans, no more taking 3 holidays abroad and buying up range rovers. people have had to feel the pinch and we have felt the pinch. people are more frugal and have readjusted their lives to bring them back to equilibrium.

But how can the economy be recovering when people will have less money to spend next year and even less the year after?

The economy is being "talked up" as we approach the 2015 election but these statements are no different to Uncle Joe announcing production of the 5 millionth tractor at the Minsk tractor plant in order to motivate the peasants, there is no supporting evidence behind them, other than figures and statistics.

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But how can the economy be recovering when people will have less money to spend next year and even less the year after?

The economy is being "talked up" as we approach the 2015 election but these statements are no different to Uncle Joe announcing production of the 5 millionth tractor at the Minsk tractor plant in order to motivate the peasants, there is no supporting evidence behind them, other than figures and statistics.

well from the latest statistics, there is a growth in manufacturing and services industries , factory order books are at their highest since 2007. UK services has just seen the fastest growth in 15 years. the economy is forecast to grow about 1.5%. not great but better than being flat. house sales are also rising, home building is up. uk construction activity is at a 10 year high.

unemployment has been relatively flat for a while now , but the economy has seen a large loss of jobs in the public sector and a large increase in jobs in the private sector 1.7 million, so there has been some rebalancing in the structure of the economy over the past 3-4 years.

the US is also rebounding with growth expected at 2.5% which helps the rest of the world. im sure the shutdown might affect things but they survived a financial collapse so im sure they can get through it. europe has also stabilised. theyve seen the collapse and are living though it. reality has hit home there too. their living standards have been brought down to earth.

were not booming by any stretch of the imagination but were no longer sinking either. things are starting to turn.

Edited by mfp123

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the economy is in a recovery.

i dont think anyone really believes the economic outlook is worse than it was in 2007. things have stabilised. Until it "collapsed" it was outwardly very stable. Then there was a period where the crisis mode shock psychologically made people risk averse...for a bit. Now it appears to have gone back to outwardly stable, so bearing this in mind, - underneath the hood tell me where it's 'better'.

there have been hardly any repossessions and people have had an extra 6 years to pay off their debts. True, but due to banks not repossessing (plus stuff like SMI), lots of fantasy assets avoiding a market clearing price. No-one has paid off their debts.

the economy may not be great but its better than it was, growth is rising, services and manufacturing data is up, confidence is up, employment is stable and falling slightly. house prices and home sales appear to be rising. Nope, none of this has legs. Growth is entirely due to govt spending which in turn is due to printing. I would try to find the quote from The Dying of Money where they saw the economy swoon every time they stopped printing and so printing became the only way to persist "growth", but l'll encourage you to go find the book and read all of it instead. Employment is losing good jobs and replacing them with dole self employed stunts (£10/wk more and drop off the stats) zero hours contracts and part time work.

rents are higher, prices outside of london did fall or have at least stayed stagnant, allowing real house prices to fall based on inflation. Irrelevant with no wage growth. In fact it's worse because that inflation is making the surplus income shrink.

i think people looking to pick up cheap properties in an all out collapse hope for this for their own sake rather than expect it to happen. I expect a currency crisis. I don't know how it will pan out though.

over the past 6 years people have toughed it out, with rising prices and lower standards of living which is reflective of the rebalancing of the economy and where we are at. There has been no rebalancing, just more of the same financialisation of the remnants.

Really, do you write this stuff with a straight face?

Edited by DabHand

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...were not booming by any stretch of the imagination but were no longer sinking either. things are starting to turn.

Like Merv once suggested, the economy will Zig Zag, as we continue to scrape along the jagged bottom. We (as a nation) ain't going nowhere fast.

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I'll need to buy at some point and if things are the same I'll buy the best value lowest outlay property I can so Im less exposed to where this ends up. Im starting to view the whole thing as an entertainment nowadays.

+1

That's what I did. After vainly waiting for a south east crash since STRing in 2005 I got tired of the restrictions of renting, but because I believe house prices will basically go sideways for the next decade or two, so houses will be a lousy investment, I bought the smallest house I needed rather than the biggest house I could afford. In a nutshell I downsized in advance and saved the transaction costs.

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the US is also rebounding with growth expected at 2.5%

Which means the US are moving ever closer to the inevitable rise in interest rates which I've always said will be the thing that finally crashes our economy and causes house prices to tank. How are people going to able to find disposable income to buy goods, which is what a recovery needs, if their mortgage payment goes up by £3,000-£4,000 a year?

Just a 2% rise in rates means £4,000 a year on a £200,000 IO mortgage and there's no guarantee that they won't go up by much more than that, when the US sneezes, we'll catch the mother of all colds.

Again, it's just stuffed suits peddling propaganda because they have a vested interest in doing so.

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In a nutshell I downsized in advance and saved the transaction costs.

A lot of people who bought during this millennium did that.

They just don't know it yet.

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