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sombreroloco

Hyperinflation In 12 Months

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Today: 25.09.2013

1) The world economy is heating up

2) The Baltic Dry index has been up for the last few months

3) Gold and silver are in a phase of correction

4) QE's and equivalents will not stop and cannot stop for obvious reasons

5) The Bond market has peaked around April-May

I can't see any other outcome than hyperinflation on both sides of the Atlantic (double digits) within next September-October 2014.

Maybe only the Eurozone can decouple from this trend if Angela Merkel has her way and finally impose some deflating bail-ins on the PIIGS and stop LTRO's.

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Wages. Bear. Too. Much. Debt.

Inflation died in 2008. The rest is Paranormal Activity.

+1

No wage inflation = no hyperinflation.

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+1

No wage inflation = no hyperinflation.

Just the impoverishment of the proles. Without the wage cap coming off inflation is merely going to eat up the disposable incomes of the low paid which in turn is going to eat into the profits of the big companies.

This could drag out for years.

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+1

No wage inflation = no hyperinflation.

The first workers to act and the first employer to cave will both be in the public sector.

everyone else will be bankrupted slowly and surely...that cheap 1/2 salary mortgage is going to be taking food off the table.

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Today: 25.09.2013

1) The world economy is heating up

2) The Baltic Dry index has been up for the last few months

3) Gold and silver are in a phase of correction

4) QE's and equivalents will not stop and cannot stop for obvious reasons

5) The Bond market has peaked around April-May

I can't see any other outcome than hyperinflation on both sides of the Atlantic (double digits) within next September-October 2014.

Maybe only the Eurozone can decouple from this trend if Angela Merkel has her way and finally impose some deflating bail-ins on the PIIGS and stop LTRO's.

The Baltic Dry is up because this is the two months of the year when all retailers bring in Christmas stock on the main routes.Strip that out iv never seen container rates as cheap since 2008.40 high cubes I was getting into Felixstowe fr £1300 ,2 years ago those were £3800.

My China suppliers told me in April they would have to put prices up on my next order.They are now pushing me all the time to place orders,,no increase,,.

Id be expecting deflation to kick in soon.Depends on energy prices.

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The Baltic Dry is up because this is the two months of the year when all retailers bring in Christmas stock on the main routes.Strip that out iv never seen container rates as cheap since 2008.40 high cubes I was getting into Felixstowe fr £1300 ,2 years ago those were £3800.

My China suppliers told me in April they would have to put prices up on my next order.They are now pushing me all the time to place orders,,no increase,,.

Id be expecting deflation to kick in soon.Depends on energy prices.

Deflation kicked in for me at the beginning of the year. I am not referring to consumer goods, however. Items of equipment where the price dropped by 50% or more, £10s of k, if you are in a position to buy.

I can probably also see what you are describing from China. I am getting lots of e-mails from Chinese companies inviting me to purchase large quantities of plastic stuff. I did once, I don't now. It had been very quiet for a couple of years. It seems they maybe resurrecting old contacts.

Edited by LiveinHope

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The Baltic Dry is up because this is the two months of the year when all retailers bring in Christmas stock on the main routes.Strip that out iv never seen container rates as cheap since 2008.40 high cubes I was getting into Felixstowe fr £1300 ,2 years ago those were £3800.

My China suppliers told me in April they would have to put prices up on my next order.They are now pushing me all the time to place orders,,no increase,,.

Id be expecting deflation to kick in soon.Depends on energy prices.

Interesting post, thanks.

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Today: 25.09.2013

1) The world economy is heating up

2) The Baltic Dry index has been up for the last few months

3) Gold and silver are in a phase of correction

4) QE's and equivalents will not stop and cannot stop for obvious reasons

5) The Bond market has peaked around April-May

I can't see any other outcome than hyperinflation on both sides of the Atlantic (double digits) within next September-October 2014.

Maybe only the Eurozone can decouple from this trend if Angela Merkel has her way and finally impose some deflating bail-ins on the PIIGS and stop LTRO's.

I'm a bit worried about the effects this would have on my savings.

Is there any way I can protect myself or does anything exist that I could buy to hedge myself if it happens ?

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The first workers to act and the first employer to cave will both be in the public sector.

everyone else will be bankrupted slowly and surely...that cheap 1/2 salary mortgage is going to be taking food off the table.

The public sector workers already are paid more on average than those forced to pay for them....I don't think that will go down at all well.

This could has dragged on for years.
Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Deflation kicked in for me at the beginning of the year. I am not referring to consumer goods, however. Items of equipment where the price dropped by 50% or more, £10s of k, if you are in a position to buy.

I can probably also see what you are describing from China. I am getting lots of e-mails from Chinese companies inviting me to purchase large quantities of plastic stuff. I did once, I don't now. It had been very quiet for a couple of years. It seems they maybe resurrecting old contacts.

buying and selling the same quantities for less is very bad for GDP.

This loss of "growth" will be fought at governmental level as it is the verything the opposition can get its teeth into...thanks to misrepresentation of the GDP in reality.

Also, your competitors will be getting the price cuts too...it only takes one of them to decide to start a price war, and not only will your market be bought from under you, to compete you will either have to sell more or sell for less...

This is the dangerous margin squeeze we are seeing in the US....it is here too and getting worse.

And with fixed costs like housing being so high, people are unable to afford to take the required wage cuts...so job losses.

Financialisation makes wage cuts impossible, as the bankers always want their cut....schemes to reduce the effects have been effective to far to pull a veil over the situation, but this cant go on forever....QE can counter deflation with inflation....specially when it matches Government issuance of debt....

financialisation has brought us between a rock and a hard place, and the gap is getting squeezed more and more as time passes. Losses HAVE to be taken at some time.

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I'm a bit worried about the effects this would have on my savings.

Is there any way I can protect myself or does anything exist that I could buy to hedge myself if it happens ?

I think you can just about still do it in cash........I calculated that my average weighted net return is still at 3.2%, unexpired fixed rate bonds and three tranches of NS and I have helped. So still 0.5% up on CPI. I did have a big gain on equities last year but failed to get back in before the second upswing from the New Year. But hey if you are up on cash I am not risking it at 6600 on the FTSE 100.

But inflation is what you make it anyway. My 12 month rolling drawings appear to have hit a ten year low. CPI is just not very good at picking up the fact that folk are now buying smart.

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I'm a bit worried about the effects this would have on my savings.

Is there any way I can protect myself or does anything exist that I could buy to hedge myself if it happens ?

yes - you're in luck!

i am no expert but i would recommend buying wold*

*Wold is an Old English term for a forest or an area of woodland on high ground; it is cognate with the Dutch word woud and with the German word Wald, both meaning forest. It became Weald in West Saxon and Kentish.

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buying and selling the same quantities for less is very bad for GDP.

This loss of "growth" will be fought at governmental level as it is the verything the opposition can get its teeth into...thanks to misrepresentation of the GDP in reality.

Also, your competitors will be getting the price cuts too...it only takes one of them to decide to start a price war, and not only will your market be bought from under you, to compete you will either have to sell more or sell for less...

This is the dangerous margin squeeze we are seeing in the US....it is here too and getting worse.

And with fixed costs like housing being so high, people are unable to afford to take the required wage cuts...so job losses.

Financialisation makes wage cuts impossible, as the bankers always want their cut....schemes to reduce the effects have been effective to far to pull a veil over the situation, but this cant go on forever....QE can counter deflation with inflation....specially when it matches Government issuance of debt....

financialisation has brought us between a rock and a hard place, and the gap is getting squeezed more and more as time passes. Losses HAVE to be taken at some time.

Those who enter the current stage of the game with cash reserves are in a better position though.

I am getting price drops because I can negotiate hard and the UK divisions of international companies have to sell something to someone to keep their offices open.

This is giving me an edge as I can obtain the latest kit and at a better price to my competitors who don't have cash reserves. Perhaps they bought full-priced kit while I made do ?

Of course it is all a competition and there may be (will be) people positioned better than me.

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+1

No wage inflation = no hyperinflation.

Not necessarily. The magic keyword is payday loans. People live beyond their means and they're encouraged to do so. They spend way more than they earn. Maybe not so much in the UK but definitely in the States. There is definitely a trend in high street price inflation.

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Those who enter the current stage of the game with cash reserves are in a better position though.

I am getting price drops because I can negotiate hard and the UK divisions of international companies have to sell something to someone to keep their offices open.

This is giving me an edge as I can obtain the latest kit and at a better price to my competitors who don't have cash reserves. Perhaps they bought full-priced kit while I made do ?

Of course it is all a competition and there may be (will be) people positioned better than me.

the risk with cash is that should you get it wrong, the cash is yours to lose...You lose.

The corporate or other entity using credit doesnt lose anything of theirs, other than the ability to trade...someone else loses.

it seems that the latter doesnt even lose the ability to trade...new lines of credit are easily available....zombies.....these are the creatures a cash buyer fears..and if Zombiism is POLICY, then even a cash buyer cant compete...as the zomby, caring nought for paying back in the medium term, can rely on cash flow to out price the cash buyer.

Big enough Zombies can get bailed out too....specially if the entire chain is made up of zombies...sales Directors dont want a fair chunk of their turnove gone due to some nicety to do with credit rating....they take the punt, and dont care if they lose being zomby themselves.

just saying.

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the risk with cash is that should you get it wrong, the cash is yours to lose...You lose.

The corporate or other entity using credit doesnt lose anything of theirs, other than the ability to trade...someone else loses.

it seems that the latter doesnt even lose the ability to trade...new lines of credit are easily available....zombies.....these are the creatures a cash buyer fears..and if Zombiism is POLICY, then even a cash buyer cant compete...as the zomby, caring nought for paying back in the medium term, can rely on cash flow to out price the cash buyer.

Big enough Zombies can get bailed out too....specially if the entire chain is made up of zombies...sales Directors dont want a fair chunk of their turnove gone due to some nicety to do with credit rating....they take the punt, and dont care if they lose being zomby themselves.

just saying.

I agree with what you are saying in principal.

At the moment, in my area, you will pay full price and some, for credit, 30% of the price for cash, if you don't p1ss about.

I can only comment at the level I play at, however.

and never spend what you can't afford to lose, or buy an item that won't earn it's keep.

Edited by LiveinHope

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I agree with what you are saying in principal.

At the moment, in my area, you will pay full price and some, for credit, 30% of the price for cash, if you don't p1ss about.

I can only comment at the level I play at, however.

and never spend what you can't afford to lose, or buy an item that won't earn it's keep.

Depends very much on the game...mate of mine sells tons of stuff buys for pennies sells for a couple of quid...the big boys arent interested in this....yet..

A much bigger game where family businesses ruled was the mobile home/campsite market in Southern Europe...15 years ago, most sites were nice family concerns, care and service being the number 1.

Today, many thousands have sold out to conglomerates.....they appeal due to their lower prices and marketing spend...I avoid them like the plague...but this is becoming harder to do....almost like British High Streets, Dominated by brands and its not worth changing towns for something different.

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Not necessarily. The magic keyword is payday loans. People live beyond their means and they're encouraged to do so. They spend way more than they earn. Maybe not so much in the UK but definitely in the States. There is definitely a trend in high street price inflation.

You mean the payday loans with 4000% interest rates which will put a couple of hundred quid in your pocket today and cripple your spending power for years to come? How is that supposed to spark hyperinflation?

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Depends very much on the game...mate of mine sells tons of stuff buys for pennies sells for a couple of quid...the big boys arent interested in this....yet..

A much bigger game where family businesses ruled was the mobile home/campsite market in Southern Europe...15 years ago, most sites were nice family concerns, care and service being the number 1.

Today, many thousands have sold out to conglomerates.....they appeal due to their lower prices and marketing spend...I avoid them like the plague...but this is becoming harder to do....almost like British High Streets, Dominated by brands and its not worth changing towns for something different.

The stuff I am talking about is not mass market. Although the companies are global, the equipment is niche and its R&D costs are high. A few years ago, you could negotiate deals if you were buying a few units, but not on singles. Nobody (exaggeration, I know) is buying a few units and so anyone who will buy just one unit is valuable. You will only get the discount though if you have a track record and the company knows you will proceed. I have just seen a change.

Your camp site and high street, examples are true. But it all cycles. fashions come and go.

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