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scrappycocco

Do I Buy Now

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I just cut my finger and I like the taste of my blood, do I need to be a freeking vampire to see an affordable house?

Deposit sitting in bank possibly waiting for a bout of inflation as a result of this stupid property scheme, do a I buy a place now to live? I'm starting to think we're a dying bread and to just jump ship. On one hand I'm losing it looking at the amount paid at the end of a mortgage term and on the other hand I don't know. Those with mortgages are the majority, politicians act for them, maybe I should join them or maybe I shouldn't, I can't make up my crazy mind.

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if you live in northern Ireland...yes.

if you live in London...no.

he you live somewhere in between.,.maybe, if you can find a decent home at 2004 level prices.

i hope that helps.

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if you live in northern Ireland...yes.

if you live in London...no.

he you live somewhere in between.,.maybe, if you can find a decent home at 2004 level prices.

i hope that helps.

2004 level prices? I'd say more like 2000 level prices.

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I just cut my finger and I like the taste of my blood, do I need to be a freeking vampire to see an affordable house?

Deposit sitting in bank possibly waiting for a bout of inflation as a result of this stupid property scheme, do a I buy a place now to live? I'm starting to think we're a dying bread and to just jump ship. On one hand I'm losing it looking at the amount paid at the end of a mortgage term and on the other hand I don't know. Those with mortgages are the majority, politicians act for them, maybe I should join them or maybe I shouldn't, I can't make up my crazy mind.

No one can possibly answer that question for you. It will depend upon your own circumstances - location, family situation etc.

I have just completed on my first house purchase three weeks ago but that was only because it suited my personal situation. I'm based in Cheadle Hulme, South Manchester, where prices remained stubbornly high but opportunities do present themselves. After offering on a few properties at 20% under asking I found a motivated seller and secured a place at 75% of the original asking price which I feel is fair value. Smaller houses on the same road were going for the same price in 2003 (nominal) and although it needs work I feel that I have protected myself to an extent against future falls. I was able to put a 25% deposit down and my repayment mortgage at 2.85% (fixed for 5years) is significantly less than my rent for a house in the same area. I have young kids in school and it is a relief that we have now bought a place close to their school and in the catchment area for a decent high school that all their friends will be going to.

Given all of the above, for me it was a no brainer. Interest rates may be the undoing of me in five years time but given my circumstances I decided that it was time to roll the dice. If I was based in London or the South East I would have been much more cautious as that is looking very much like a bubble. Value can be found in other areas of the country if you look hard enough.

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I would say buying now would be a mistake as once your in it may be hard to get out. The amount of market distortion in the UK economy is absolutely insane, so staying liquid and easily being able to move your wealth would maybe be the best option.

Long term houses must return to what people can afford to pay for them.

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I rent but I also own (well, paid half the mortgage off) elsewhere, due to work location reasons.

I'm going to take full advantage of Osbollock's Help to Buy in the early Spring by SELLING UP. (STcoR - sell to carry on renting)

Hope that makes my position clear. :)

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after being an uber bear for the last decade i think i have finally found value and the figures stack up for me to buy a place as a home and not even be bothered what it looks like as an investment.

large 2 bed end terrace, nice bit of town, quiet road, large garden. similar stuff on for between £65k and £85k. i got it for £58000.

7 year fix over 13 years comes out at £450 a month with £5850 down. im paying that rent at the minute. and to tell you the truth if you said to me that it would be worth £30k in 5 years, i really wouldnt be bothered.

i also dont care if rates rise as i plan to clear in 10years meximum.

however if i was buying and needed a mortgage over a longer term i would be very very cautious. 15years-30years is a very long time and anything could happen to rates at any point.

thats how i see it

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I just cut my finger and I like the taste of my blood, do I need to be a freeking vampire to see an affordable house?

Deposit sitting in bank possibly waiting for a bout of inflation as a result of this stupid property scheme, do a I buy a place now to live? I'm starting to think we're a dying bread and to just jump ship. On one hand I'm losing it looking at the amount paid at the end of a mortgage term and on the other hand I don't know. Those with mortgages are the majority, politicians act for them, maybe I should join them or maybe I shouldn't, I can't make up my crazy mind.

Yes, please do.

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I just cut my finger and I like the taste of my blood, do I need to be a freeking vampire to see an affordable house?

Deposit sitting in bank possibly waiting for a bout of inflation as a result of this stupid property scheme, do a I buy a place now to live? I'm starting to think we're a dying bread and to just jump ship. On one hand I'm losing it looking at the amount paid at the end of a mortgage term and on the other hand I don't know. Those with mortgages are the majority, politicians act for them, maybe I should join them or maybe I shouldn't, I can't make up my crazy mind.

You might have a long wait until prices fall if you don't.

Unless there is a global financial disaster which takes things out of it's control, this government has effectively declared that house prices cannot fall and they will do anything necessary to prevent this, including using your taxes to subsidise the banks and the housing market.

So if you wait, you're dependent on either a global catastrophe or a change of government policy(unlikely a Labour government would actually deliver on anything that would bring about price falls IMO, they too are dependent on the City).

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There are lots of noises at both national and local level to get serious house building underway and I am seeing lots of actual start-on-sites happening now after many years of just talking about it. This will only serve to drop prices by providing a surge in supply.

In terms of less-desireable areas in the SW (grotty bits of grotty towns) houses are trading now for not much more than build costs.

I have also thought that there must be a lot of pent-up supply and Honest EA put this at about five years' worth which he thinks will come onto the market in the next year.

So IMO:

Bottom end cheap home: won't get much cheaper. You lose nothing by buying now.

Higher priced homes - the higher the price now the bigger the drop to come IMO (in percentage terms as well as cash) as the disconnect from local wages takes away the support in a time of rising supply. Wait at least two years.

Edited by Frank Hovis

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after being an uber bear for the last decade i think i have finally found value and the figures stack up for me to buy a place as a home and not even be bothered what it looks like as an investment.

large 2 bed end terrace, nice bit of town, quiet road, large garden. similar stuff on for between £65k and £85k. i got it for £58000.

where can you buy an end terrace for 60k? Is the area safe?

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yes, it is being suicidal to buy a house now, at the top of the market.

The above posts have not made it clear: it's out of Osborne's control. He can't control the future of house prices. All he can do is keep the banks alive on a drip feed, until the next bank crisis comes, at which point they go bust anyway. They owe multiples of the UK's GDP, are hopelessly insolvent and if the government tries to pay their debts, it will go bust as well. The future for the UK government is Greece or Zimbabwe or Iceland.

Osborne is praying the drip feed keeps them alive until after the next election. The banksters are holding on for the statute of limitations to run out on their pre 2009 frauds. After that, they don't care because they are home free.

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I just cut my finger and I like the taste of my blood, do I need to be a freeking vampire to see an affordable house?

Deposit sitting in bank possibly waiting for a bout of inflation as a result of this stupid property scheme, do a I buy a place now to live? I'm starting to think we're a dying bread and to just jump ship. On one hand I'm losing it looking at the amount paid at the end of a mortgage term and on the other hand I don't know. Those with mortgages are the majority, politicians act for them, maybe I should join them or maybe I shouldn't, I can't make up my crazy mind.

Don't forget to deduct the amount that would be paid should you rent that property over the mortgage term.

I think the main concern for anyone considering buying at the moment is if they can handle a significant rise in interest rates. I was a dispatch rider in London 1989/90 and my firm also had 'VIP cars'. Clean Sierra or better, driver with shortish hair and wearing a tie. There was a lot of middle management guys working evenings and weekends in their company cars. Due to savage interest rates hikes their salary covered their mortgage and nothing else. So they were taxi drivers to put food on the table and pay the other bills.

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I would say buying now would be a mistake as once your in it may be hard to get out. The amount of market distortion in the UK economy is absolutely insane, so staying liquid and easily being able to move your wealth would maybe be the best option.

Long term houses must return to what people can afford to pay for them.

i was also of the view that long term prices must return to what people can afford (or at least borrow) - however as someone who wants to see big falls i am concerned that, having s seen a whole 'new' category of market participant join/increase their presence in the last c. 10 years or so (i.e. property investors of varying types from institutional players such as sovereign funds/pension funds/hedge funds etc. to the many amateurs landlords), it kind of makes sense to me that prices should have increased as a result and will stay high/increase so long as this support remains in place/builds (a permanently higher plateau if you like)...

I appreciate that this is a somewhat simplistic analysis but question whether it really matters if 'people' cannot afford to buy so long as someone somewhere is able to do so - i don't see this as a reason to get speculating but believe that it may prevent the extreme falls that would be required to enable an established middle class professional such as myself to buy the kind of house that i deserve (I truth I am only half joking) - of course this money can come and go but would reckon that a fair bit of this cash is in it for the long term as property is widely viewed as a fully legit asset class (versus for e.g. speculative short term institutional investment in the commodities market which can really play havoc/exaggerate moves) - maybe the trend in increasing home ownership will reverse and ownership will reside in the hands of fewer individuals with multiple interests - perhaps this is just how it is going to be for us over coming years (by the way this business with hedge funds in the US buying up foreclosed properties is pretty filthy)...

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i was also of the view that long term prices must return to what people can afford (or at least borrow) - however as someone who wants to see big falls i am concerned that, having s seen a whole 'new' category of market participant join/increase their presence in the last c. 10 years or so (i.e. property investors of varying types from institutional players such as sovereign funds/pension funds/hedge funds etc. to the many amateurs landlords), it kind of makes sense to me that prices should have increased as a result and will stay high/increase so long as this support remains in place/builds (a permanently higher plateau if you like)...

I appreciate that this is a somewhat simplistic analysis but question whether it really matters if 'people' cannot afford to buy so long as someone somewhere is able to do so - i don't see this as a reason to get speculating but believe that it may prevent the extreme falls that would be required to enable an established middle class professional such as myself to buy the kind of house that i deserve (I truth I am only half joking) - of course this money can come and go but would reckon that a fair bit of this cash is in it for the long term as property is widely viewed as a fully legit asset class (versus for e.g. speculative short term institutional investment in the commodities market which can really play havoc/exaggerate moves) - maybe the trend in increasing home ownership will reverse and ownership will reside in the hands of fewer individuals with multiple interests - perhaps this is just how it is going to be for us over coming years (by the way this business with hedge funds in the US buying up foreclosed properties is pretty filthy)...

You should buy too.

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You should buy too.

i have (under duress c. 4 years ago) - the question is do i go large (?)

i am simply stating my concern - i could just ignore it, sell up and hope for the best...

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i was also of the view that long term prices must return to what people can afford (or at least borrow) - however as someone who wants to see big falls i am concerned that, having s seen a whole 'new' category of market participant join/increase their presence in the last c. 10 years or so (i.e. property investors of varying types from institutional players such as sovereign funds/pension funds/hedge funds etc. to the many amateurs landlords), it kind of makes sense to me that prices should have increased as a result and will stay high/increase so long as this support remains in place/builds (a permanently higher plateau if you like)...

I appreciate that this is a somewhat simplistic analysis but question whether it really matters if 'people' cannot afford to buy so long as someone somewhere is able to do so - i don't see this as a reason to get speculating but believe that it may prevent the extreme falls that would be required to enable an established middle class professional such as myself to buy the kind of house that i deserve (I truth I am only half joking) - of course this money can come and go but would reckon that a fair bit of this cash is in it for the long term as property is widely viewed as a fully legit asset class (versus for e.g. speculative short term institutional investment in the commodities market which can really play havoc/exaggerate moves) - maybe the trend in increasing home ownership will reverse and ownership will reside in the hands of fewer individuals with multiple interests - perhaps this is just how it is going to be for us over coming years (by the way this business with hedge funds in the US buying up foreclosed properties is pretty filthy)...

I am of the view that foriegn ownership is the big elephant in the room that will prevent a HPC in the UK. As the pound falls, it becomes cheaper and cheaper if you have savings in another currency.

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How are the foreign buyers doing in NI, Willie?

I've said this before until I am bleu in the face - the more I see actions of asian buyers, the more I think THEY DO NOT CARE IF THEY LOSE 50% NOMINAL ON PROPERTIES IN THE UK. They see it as an asset that they will not lose to a grasping local government or 'big man'.

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I've said this before until I am bleu in the face - the more I see actions of asian buyers, the more I think THEY DO NOT CARE IF THEY LOSE 50% NOMINAL ON PROPERTIES IN THE UK. They see it as an asset that they will not lose to a grasping local government or 'big man'.

Whatever.

I think Northern Ireland shows us that there are places where prices can fall 50% and hordes are not rushing back in.

There is hope for us all.

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the more I see actions of asian buyers, the more I think THEY DO NOT CARE IF THEY LOSE 50% NOMINAL

Sounds good, they'll soon run out of money to inflate bubbles with if they keep following that investment strategy.

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Sounds good, they'll soon run out of money to inflate bubbles with if they keep following that investment strategy.

OK, lets try to explain this again.

Have a look at THIS:

http://www.squarefoot.com.hk/property/13537609

14.5 Million HKD. That is about 1.1 Million Pounds. Three bedroom flat in mid-range. Not fantastic views, build quality, or space.

If you are used to those sort of prices, half a million for a two bed in LONDON - where growing up all your dreams were aimed - seems a bargain. If it drops to 250k, you do not care because you still own a place in LONDON.

Trust me on this - I hate it, but it is true, Asian buyers will continue to buy in London until stopped.

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